Doubts about Trump grow among GOP Insiders
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November 23, 2015
Republican Party Insiders increasingly believe that billionaire developer and television celebrity Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy is hurting the GOP. And that was before Trump’s latest declarations that “thousands of people” in New Jersey “where you have large Arab populations” cheered on 9-11 when the World Trade Center collapsed, that waterboarding should be brought back as an interrogation tool against suspected terrorists, and that at least some American mosques should be placed under surveillance. Trump discussed those views on ABC’s Sunday news program, “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
A Ballotpedia survey of 124 Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives, found that 47 percent plurality believe that “on balance” Trump “is hurting” the GOP. Only 13 percent believe that Trump “is helping” the party, another 27 percent said his candidacy “both” helps and hurts the GOP, while another 13 percent said it does neither. The survey was conducted Nov. 14-18.
These results reflect a modest hardening of Republican elite opinion against Trump since a similar survey conducted in September when 42 percent of those surveyed said Trump’s candidacy was hurting the GOP and 35 percent he was both helping and hurting the party. To read that report, click here.
“At first [Trump was] helpful in gaining attention to our field, but as first votes approach, potential to be destructive due to rhetoric,” said one GOP Insider of Trump’s impact. “He meaningfully lowers the level of political discourse, which is really saying something in 2015,” said another. And a third echoed, “His epic rants have not only killed his brand, but is seriously hurting the Republican Party.” Insiders were given anonymity in the survey to encourage their candor.
While Trump’s verbal broadsides worry GOP Insiders, he continues to lead in preference polls of Republicans for whom they support for their 2016 presidential nomination. In two national polls released by FOX News and ABC News/The Washington Post on Sunday, Trump held a 10-point lead over retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Trump was the nomination favorite of 32 percent in the FOX poll and 28 percent in the ABC/Post survey.
“Anytime crazy, self-absorbed twits have traction, it is not a good thing,” maintained one GOP Insider. “Not good for the nation and not good for the Republican Party.” Indeed, it appears that a growing number of Republican Insiders are concerned that Trump is degrading their party’s image. Trump was “reinforcing [the view] that Republicans are jerks,” said one Insider. He “makes it harder to seem like the adult party,” said another. “It’s a sham, and we look like dupes,” added a third.
But a handful of GOP Insiders disagree and say that Trump is helping the party because he’s tapping into voters’ concerns and drawing them into the Republican presidential race. “Trump is engaging a type of voter that is apathetic right now and he will hopefully keep them engaged through the general election, regardless of whether he wins the nomination,” said one GOP Insider. “Love him or hate him, for better or for worse, Trump is waking up a lot of blue collar Republicans,” said another. “Simply drawing record numbers of debate viewers has given other candidates invaluable exposure and opportunity to advance,” said a third GOP Insider. “Either way more voters are interested in the GOP candidates.”
Others felt that Trump’s candidacy was helping to position the party where it needs to be. “Trump’s success is pushing the party to the right, helping generate conservative, base enthusiasm,” observed another Republican influential.
Among those who said that Trump is both helping and hurting the GOP, their comments typically reflect a common theme: Trump’s bringing attention and energy to the party, but at a steep price. “He’s bringing in new people, but he is a train wreck and we will be sullied by his behavior,” predicted one GOP Insider. “He has undoubtedly energized new voters, but he has also confirmed the lowest opinions of those who mistrust Republicans,” said another GOP Insider. “He’s bringing attention to the debates, but the bullying tactics aren’t helping the party,” echoed a third.
Insiders also recoiled a bit over another Trump tune, immigration. “Raising border security has been important,” acknowledged one GOP Insider. “The way he has raised it though has caused further divisiveness instead of a solution.” Another noted, “He has helped by exposing Bush’s fatal weaknesses as a candidate, but he’s also hurt by pulling nearly all of the candidates down the toxic road of anti-immigrant extremism.”
Many of these trade-offs with Trump have existed since almost the beginning of his candidacy. They may be limiting his growth potential. Trump remains the GOP frontrunner in public opinion polls, but through Sunday, he’s yet to register more than a third of the vote in any of those national polls followed by the popular Real Clear Politics website.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted November 14-18.
See also
- Presidential Nominating Index: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
