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Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Bryan Steil (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Bryan Steil won election in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Bryan Steil, who was first elected in 2018.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District included Kenosha and Racine counties and portions of Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth and Waukesha counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 44.7 40.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 53.9 59.3
Difference 9.2 18.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Wisconsin modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee and mail-in ballot applications were sent to most registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

Incumbent Bryan Steil defeated Roger Polack in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryan Steil
Bryan Steil (R)
 
59.3
 
238,271
Image of Roger Polack
Roger Polack (D) Candidate Connection
 
40.6
 
163,170
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
313

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 401,754
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

Roger Polack defeated Josh Pade in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Roger Polack
Roger Polack Candidate Connection
 
58.1
 
28,698
Image of Josh Pade
Josh Pade
 
41.7
 
20,608
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
109

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,415
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

Incumbent Bryan Steil advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryan Steil
Bryan Steil
 
99.7
 
40,273
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.3
 
131

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 40,404
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District the 189th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[3]


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[4]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[5][6][7]

Race ratings: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in Wisconsin in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Wisconsin, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Wisconsin 1st Congressional District Recognized party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source
Wisconsin 1st Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twenty-three of 72 Wisconsin counties—32 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Adams County, Wisconsin 21.92% 8.73% 18.35%
Buffalo County, Wisconsin 21.82% 2.93% 14.66%
Columbia County, Wisconsin 2.14% 13.58% 15.26%
Crawford County, Wisconsin 5.40% 19.98% 27.03%
Door County, Wisconsin 3.22% 6.99% 17.33%
Dunn County, Wisconsin 11.09% 4.97% 14.95%
Forest County, Wisconsin 26.58% 5.44% 15.16%
Grant County, Wisconsin 9.43% 13.77% 23.88%
Jackson County, Wisconsin 11.74% 15.01% 21.84%
Juneau County, Wisconsin 26.05% 7.03% 9.00%
Kenosha County, Wisconsin 0.31% 12.23% 18.06%
Lafayette County, Wisconsin 8.99% 15.37% 22.32%
Lincoln County, Wisconsin 20.60% 0.71% 12.48%
Marquette County, Wisconsin 24.09% 0.27% 5.28%
Pepin County, Wisconsin 23.08% 2.22% 12.89%
Price County, Wisconsin 25.00% 0.04% 13.40%
Racine County, Wisconsin 4.28% 3.54% 7.41%
Richland County, Wisconsin 5.50% 16.13% 20.63%
Sauk County, Wisconsin 0.35% 18.47% 23.04%
Sawyer County, Wisconsin 18.41% 0.49% 6.23%
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin 12.64% 14.08% 26.39%
Vernon County, Wisconsin 4.43% 14.73% 22.00%
Winnebago County, Wisconsin 7.34% 3.73% 11.66%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wisconsin with 47.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wisconsin supported Republicans slightly more than Democratic candidates, 50.0 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election from 2000 to 2012 before voting for Trump in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in Wisconsin. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.6 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 56 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 63 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

Bryan Steil defeated Randy Bryce and Ken Yorgan in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryan Steil
Bryan Steil (R)
 
54.6
 
177,492
Image of Randy Bryce
Randy Bryce (D)
 
42.3
 
137,508
Image of Ken Yorgan
Ken Yorgan (Independent)
 
3.1
 
10,006
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
7

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 325,013
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

Randy Bryce defeated Catherine Myers in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Randy Bryce
Randy Bryce
 
59.6
 
36,406
Image of Catherine Myers
Catherine Myers
 
40.4
 
24,699

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 61,105
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 1 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryan Steil
Bryan Steil
 
51.6
 
30,885
Image of Nick Polce
Nick Polce
 
14.9
 
8,948
Image of Paul Nehlen
Paul Nehlen
 
11.1
 
6,638
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Kevin Steen
 
10.5
 
6,262
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jeremy Ryan
 
10.4
 
6,226
Image of Bradley Thomas Boivin
Bradley Thomas Boivin
 
1.5
 
924

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 59,883
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) defeated Ryan Solen (D), Jason Lebeck (L), and Spencer Zimmerman (Trump Conservative) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Ryan defeated Paul Nehlen in the Republican primary, while Solen defeated Tom Breu to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 9, 2016.[10][11]

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Ryan Incumbent 65% 230,072
     Democratic Ryan Solen 30.2% 107,003
     Trump Conservative Spencer Zimmerman 2.7% 9,429
     Libertarian Jason Lebeck 2.1% 7,486
Total Votes 353,990
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission


U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Ryan Incumbent 84.1% 57,364
Paul Nehlen 15.9% 10,864
Total Votes 68,228
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission
U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Solen 59.1% 14,639
Tom Breu 40.9% 10,142
Total Votes 24,781
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission

2014

See also: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) defeated Rob Zerban (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Ryan Incumbent 63.3% 182,316
     Democratic Rob Zerban 36.6% 105,552
     Independent Keith Deschler - Write-in 0% 29
     N/A Scattering 0.1% 273
Total Votes 288,170
Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

2012

On November 6, 2012, Paul Ryan (R) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Rob Zerban and Keith Deschler in the general election.

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Rob Zerban 43.4% 158,414
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Ryan Incumbent 54.9% 200,423
     Libertarian Keith Deschler 1.7% 6,054
     Miscellaneous N/A 0% 167
Total Votes 365,058
Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" (dead link)

2010

On November 2, 2010, Paul Ryan won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Heckenlively (D) and Joseph Kexel (L) in the general election.[12]

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 1 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Ryan incumbent 68.2% 179,819
     Democratic John Heckenlively 30.1% 79,363
     Libertarian Joseph Kexel 1.6% 4,311
     N/A Scattering 0.1% 134
Total Votes 263,627

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Wisconsin Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  5. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
  11. ↑ Politico, "Wisconsin House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
  12. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (3)


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