What to look for in the New York primary
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April 19, 2016
The Empire State offers opportunities for the two presidential frontrunners, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, to get their campaigns back on track after defeats in the Wisconsin primary and a series of state caucuses. It would be surprising if that does not happen as the votes start to come in at 9:00 PM EST when the polls close in New York.
In the New York Republican primary 14 national delegates are allocated proportionally to any candidate receiving over 20 percent of the vote statewide; if a candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote statewide that candidate will receive all 14 at-large national delegates. There are three delegates allocated to each congressional district: the plurality winner in each of the 27 congressional districts receives 2 national delegates in each CD and the second place finisher—who also must break a 20 percent threshold, receives one delegate. If the winner receives over 50 percent of the vote in the CD – then the winner receives all three delegates from the CD.
For the 291 national delegates from New York to the Democratic National Convention, 247 are allocated proportionally to any candidates receiving at 15 percent of the statewide primary vote and 15 percent of the vote in each congressional district. The other 44 delegates are superdelegates who are free to support whomever the like.
Voting in New York City and Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Erie Counties begins at 6:00 AM EST. Polls in the other 50 counties open at noon. While some pre-primary polls have been wrong this year, if the trends in New York hold up, the television networks should be able to call winners in both races fairly quickly after the polls close at 9:00 PM.
While New York values tend to be on the liberal side, in Democratic primaries, voters have shown a tendency to side with the more establishment candidate in a contested race. In 1984, Democrats chose Walter Mondale over Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson; in 1988, they picked Mike Dukakis over Jackson; in 1992, they sided with Bill Clinton over Jerry Brown; in 2000, they favored Al Gore over Bill Bradley; and in 2008, they backed then hometown Senator Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.
While Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has addressed large and enthusiastic audiences in New York, his best outcome is likely to be holding down Clinton’s margin of victory. One advantage Clinton may have in New York is that she scrupulously looked after the interests of upstate and rural voters during her eight years in the Senate. Sanders has performed very well in less diverse, rural areas of states in previous primaries and caucuses, but Clinton could hold down his margins on that turf in New York.
Another plus for Clinton in the Empire State could be the relatively large Jewish vote in Democratic primaries. While Sanders has skewered her for initially supporting the war in Iraq, Clinton’s more hawkish view on foreign policy coupled with Sanders’ criticism of Israel for using disproportionate military force in the 2014 Gaza uprising could give the former Secretary of State an advantage among Jewish Democrats.
And if the GOP pre-primary polls are right, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is poised to have a big night in his backyard. Trump’s brash style is no handicap among most New Yorkers who will be casting GOP ballots. The billionaire developer is likely to do well in urban as well as rural areas that have been his bastions in many previous primaries this year.
New York Party Registration as of April 1, 2016:
Democratic: 5,268,431
Republican: 2,554,996
Other: 2,455,321
Total: 10,278,748
New York is a closed primary. Only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary and only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. There is no Election Day registration. There are no other regular primary elections on the ballot in New York on April 19th. There are four special elections for the state legislature on the ballot that could affect local turnout – State Senate District 9 (Nassau County); State Assembly districts 59 (Brooklyn), 62 (Staten Island) and 65 (Manhattan). The Senate District 9 contest is to replace Dean G. Skelos, the former GOP State Senate majority leader and the Assembly District 65 race is to replace Sheldon Silver, the former Democratic Assembly speaker, both of whom were convicted on corruption charges.
A large Democratic turnout would likely benefit Sanders more than Clinton, but even that may not be enough to overcome the assets she has in a state that she and her husband have never lost in an election. On the Republican side, the turnout could well be a record and that will not hurt Trump.
Past New York Presidential Primary Turnouts:
| Year | Democrat | Republican |
| 2012 | -- | 189,598 |
| 2008 | 1,862,445 | 645,326 |
| 2004 | 715,633 | -- |
| 2000 | 974,463 | 254,810 |
| 1996 | -- | 126,692 |
| 1992 | 1,007,726 | -- |
| 1988 | 1,575,186 | -- |
| 1984 | 1,387,950 | -- |
| 1980 | 989,062 | -- |
Previous primary results:
Republican Presidential Primary 2012
Mitt Romney 63%
Ron Paul 15%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Santorum 10%
Democratic Presidential Primary 2008
Hillary Clinton 57%
Barack Obama 40%
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and is helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in New York, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
