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Arizona's 4th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

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Arizona's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 6, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Paul Gosar (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Arizona's 4th Congressional District
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Arizona elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

A Republican Party primary took place on August 4, 2020, in Arizona's 4th Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.

Incumbent Paul Gosar advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 6, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election, the incumbent was Paul Gosar (Republican), who was first elected in 2010.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[1][2][3]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on Arizona's 4th Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Arizona made no changes to its August 4, 2020, primary election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Paul Gosar
Paul Gosar
 
63.1
 
82,376
Image of Anne Marie Ward
Anne Marie Ward Candidate Connection
 
36.9
 
48,118

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 130,494
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[4] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Anne Marie Ward

Image of Anne Marie Ward

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Anne Marie Ward, a native of Prescott Valley, Arizona, is running for the Republican nomination for the United States Congress in Arizona's 4th District. Anne Marie spent her childhood riding horses, hiking, shooting, and exploring the mountains and deserts of Arizona. She is now raising her two children in Prescott with her husband, Robert, a Bullhead City native. She holds a Master's in Education and a Ph.D. in Leadership. She's been a middle school math teacher and, most recently, a small business owner who helped small businesses grow and plan for their future. She also worked in the United States Senate. Anne Marie was drawn to politics after seeing firsthand the harm that ineffective, career politicians have on her home district. She believes we must fight the radical socialism that has taken over the national dialogue and work to preserve our Great American Legacy."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

No more ineffective, career politicians - It's time to return the power of the federal government to ""We the People."" Career politicians have devastated our communities through backdoor deals that preserve their own power at the expense of the people they should be representing. This has never been more true than in AZ04, where the current representative not only doesn't live in the district, but is totally out of touch with those he's supposed to represent. We need one of our own fighting for us in Washington, D.C.

Inspiring the next generation of Republicans and fighting against radical Socialism - We need leadership who will inspire the next generation of Republicans. Radical socialism has infiltrated the minds of young voters. It is time for fresh Republican leadership that inspires the rising generation to fight for conservative principles that preserve our Great American Legacy. We must take the time to educate the next generation on what conservative values mean for the cause of liberty and freedom. I have visited several college campuses and spoken with students about the value of conservative policy and principles. I will continue to reach to the next generation to ensure they will help us to preserve our Great American Legacy.

Fighting for rural Arizona - Arizona has been forgotten about by career politicians. I've spent the last 7 months driving over 40,000 miles in the district and it's clear: do-nothing politicians and the COVID-19 pandemic have devastated our communities. Small businesses have closed permanently, and families have lost their livelihoods. We need one of our own to represent us and to help lead us past this devastation and into the next chapter of American greatness.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Arizona District 4 in 2020.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+21, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 21 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 4th Congressional District the 30th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Paul Gosar Republican Party $651,499 $759,239 $13,459 As of December 31, 2020
Anne Marie Ward Republican Party $110,342 $110,342 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Arizona's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 19, 2024
  2. ↑ Citizens Clean Elections Commission, "Primary Election," accessed July 19, 2024
  3. ↑ Arizona State Legislature, "Arizona Revised Statutes 16-467," accessed July 19 2024
  4. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)


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