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Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2020

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Florida's 18th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Brian Mast (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 18th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 18th Congressional District of Florida, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Brian Mast won election in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 18.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 24, 2020
August 18, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Brian Mast, who was first elected in 2016.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.


Florida's 18th Congressional District is located in eastern Florida and includes St. Lucie and Martin counties and a portion of Palm Beach County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Florida's 18th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 45.5 41.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 53.9 56.3
Difference 8.4 14.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter registration deadline was extended to October 6, 2020.[2]

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Pam Keith and K.W. Miller in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 18 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast (R)
 
56.3
 
253,286
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith (D) Candidate Connection
 
41.5
 
186,674
Image of K.W. Miller
K.W. Miller (No Party Affiliation) Candidate Connection
 
2.2
 
9,760

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 449,720
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Pam Keith defeated Oz Vazquez in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 18, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith Candidate Connection
 
79.8
 
52,921
Image of Oz Vazquez
Oz Vazquez Candidate Connection
 
20.2
 
13,385

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 66,306
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Nicholas Vessio in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 18, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast
 
86.0
 
62,121
Image of Nicholas Vessio
Nicholas Vessio
 
14.0
 
10,081

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 72,202
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 18th Congressional District the 195th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Brian Mast Republican Party $6,196,669 $5,369,800 $994,362 As of December 31, 2020
Pam Keith Democratic Party $1,674,663 $1,670,343 $4,320 As of December 31, 2020
K.W. Miller No Party Affiliation $0 $0 $100 As of October 22, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 18th Congressional District candidates in Florida in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Florida, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Florida 18th Congressional District Qualified party 5,303 1% of registered voters in the district $10,440.00 6% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source
Florida 18th Congressional District Unaffiliated 5,303 1% of registered voters in the district $6,960.00 4% of annual salary 4/24/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Lauren Baer in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 18 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast (R)
 
54.3
 
185,905
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer (D)
 
45.7
 
156,454

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 342,359
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Lauren Baer defeated Pam Keith in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer
 
60.3
 
35,028
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith
 
39.7
 
23,064

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 58,092
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Mark Freeman and Dave Cummings in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast
 
77.6
 
55,527
Image of Mark Freeman
Mark Freeman
 
11.3
 
8,096
Image of Dave Cummings
Dave Cummings
 
11.0
 
7,888

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 71,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 18th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D) chose not to seek re-election in 2016 in order to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Brian Mast (R) defeated Randy Perkins (D), Carla Spalding (I), and write-in candidate Marilyn Holloman in the general election on November 8, 2016. Perkins defeated Jonathan Chane and John Xuna in the Democratic primary, while Mast defeated Rebecca Negron, Carl Domino, Rick Kozell, Noelle Nikpour, and Mark Freeman to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]

U.S. House, Florida District 18 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBrian Mast 53.6% 201,488
     Democratic Randy Perkins 43.1% 161,918
     Independent Carla Spalding 3.3% 12,503
     N/A Write-in 0% 9
Total Votes 375,918
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 18 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrian Mast 38% 24,099
Rebecca Negron 25.6% 16,242
Mark Freeman 15.8% 10,000
Carl Domino 12.5% 7,942
Rick Kozell 6.8% 4,334
Noelle Nikpour 1.3% 835
Total Votes 63,452
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. House, Florida District 18 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRandy Perkins 60.4% 27,861
Jonathan Chane 32.3% 14,897
John Xuna 7.4% 3,394
Total Votes 46,152
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 18th Congressional District elections, 2014

Florida's 18th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the race had a very low margin of victory in the last election. Incumbent Patrick Murphy faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Carl Domino triumphed over Calvin Turnquest, Alan Schlesinger, Beverly Joy Hires, Nick Robert Wukoson and Brian Lara. Murphy then defeated Domino in the general election on November 4, 2014.[23][24]

U.S. House, Florida District 18 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Murphy Incumbent 59.8% 151,478
     Republican Carl Domino 40.2% 101,896
Total Votes 253,374
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ This change was not due to COVID-19. This deadline was extended after the state's voter registration website crashed.
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ TCPalm, "Rebecca Negron files to run for Patrick Murphy's seat," April 14, 2015
  14. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Republican Carl Domino says he’s running again for Patrick Murphy’s House seat," May 5, 2015
  15. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "War vet Brian Mast, attorney Rick Kozell launch GOP bids for open Patrick Murphy seat," June 8, 2015
  16. ↑ Twitter, "Emily Cahn," August 4, 2015
  17. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "Belle Glade farmer Rick Roth of Wellington to run for U.S. Congress," August 12, 2015
  18. ↑ Carla Spalding for Congress, "Home," accessed January 4, 2016
  19. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Hurricane-cleanup CEO set to join Dem race for Murphy U.S. House seat," November 17, 2015
  20. ↑ Jonathan Chane for Congress, "Home," accessed January 12, 2016
  21. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  22. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  23. ↑ Associated Press, "Primary Results 2014," accessed August 26, 2014
  24. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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