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Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2018

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Florida's 18th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Brian Mast (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+5
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 18th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Mast (R) defeated attorney Lauren Baer (D) in the general election for Florida's 18th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Before Mast was elected in 2016 by a margin of 11 percentage points, Democrat Patrick Murphy held the seat for two terms. The district backed the Republican presidential nominees in 2012 and 2016 by single-digit margins.[3]

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee identified this district as a key race.[4][5]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Lauren Baer in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 18 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast (R)
 
54.3
 
185,905
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer (D)
 
45.7
 
156,454

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 342,359
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Lauren Baer defeated Pam Keith in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer
 
60.3
 
35,028
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith
 
39.7
 
23,064

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 58,092
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Mark Freeman and Dave Cummings in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast
 
77.6
 
55,527
Image of Mark Freeman
Mark Freeman
 
11.3
 
8,096
Image of Dave Cummings
Dave Cummings
 
11.0
 
7,888

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 71,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Lauren Baer, former State Department official
Lauren Baer.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Baer earned a B.A. from Harvard University, J.D. from Yale Law School, and MPhil from the University of Oxford. She worked as a litigator before serving in the Obama administration from 2011 to 2017. She worked as a senior advisor to former Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton (D) and John Kerry (D) and Samantha Power, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.[6]

Key messages
  • Baer said her top three priorities in office would be "quality, affordable healthcare, environmental protection, and the long-overdue passage of common-sense gun safety measures."[7]
  • Baer cited her family, including her mother's chronic illness and her daughter's future, as motivations for her to run for office.[7]
  • Baer said her ties to the district distinguish her. "I am proud to be the only candidate in this race who was raised in Florida’s 18th Congressional District and has long-standing ties to this community. My family has owned and operated Baer’s Furniture in south Florida for more than fifty years, and I owe my success in life to my Palm Beach County public school education," she said in an interview.[7]



Brian Mast, U.S. representative
Brian Mast.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. House of Representatives (assumed office: 2017)

Biography: Mast graduated from South Christian High School and served in the U.S. Army for 12 years. He worked under the Joint Special Operations Command JSOC as a bomb disposal expert. After being injured, he provided expertise to the National Nuclear Security Administration and the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms. Following his retirement from the military, Mast worked as an explosive specialist for the Department of Homeland Security. He also received a B.L.A. from the Harvard Extension School.[8]

Key messages
  • Mast said of his priorities in office, "I've prioritized issues to make our community safer, healthier and stronger. I am and will continue doing everything I can to make sure the gates at Port Mayaca Lock and Dam can be welded shut for good and ensure our veterans are treated with the dignity they deserve."[9]
  • Mast said he was running for office because he was committed to continuing to serve after losing both his legs in combat. "I intended to spend the majority of my career serving in the Army. When I was injured, I had to come to grips with the fact that I would never be an asset again on the battlefield. While I may have lost this physical ability, I didn't lose my purpose," Mast said in an interview.[9]
  • Mast said his ability to work with others, whether on the battlefield or in Congress, distinguished him from other candidates.[9]


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Brian Mast Republican Party $6,120,278 $6,047,403 $167,493 As of December 31, 2018
Lauren Baer Democratic Party $4,603,075 $4,599,913 $3,163 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 18th Congressional District, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Baer Republican Party MastUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Global Strategy Group
September 26-30, 2018		N/A 45%48%7%+/-4.9400
Public Policy Polling
September 17-18, 2018		Protect Our Care 43%46%11%+/-4.2533
AVERAGES 44% 47% 9% +/-4.55 466.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[10][11][12]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[16]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[17][18][19]

Race ratings: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 18th Congressional District the 195th most Republican nationally.[20]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[21]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Lauren Baer

Support

"Patriot" - Baer campaign ad, released October 25, 2018
"Neighbors" - Baer campaign ad, released September 29, 2018
"Ava" - Baer campaign ad, released September 20, 2018

Oppose

"Stand" - With Honor ad, released October 22, 2018


Republican Party Brian Mast

Support

"Sacrifice" - Mast campaign ad, released October 12, 2018
"Pay It Forward" - Mast campaign ad, released October 2, 2018

Oppose

"Act" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 23, 2018
"FL-18: Down Here" - DCCC opposition ad, released October 15, 2018
"Clear" - Baer opposition ad, released October 13, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites, if available.

Democratic Party Lauren Baer

“

Healthcare

Healthcare is a fundamental human right. In our country, every single person should be able to get high-quality, affordable health care, and no one should be forced to choose between making ends meet and getting the treatment they need. This means that Congress has to come up with ways to lower premiums and deductibles, increase consumer choice, and improve quality of care.

Republican efforts to repeal, dismember, and undermine the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), have done the opposite by destabilizing insurance markets, leading to a reduction in the number of insurers and rises in premiums and deductibles. We feel this in our pocket books, but it’s not just paychecks that are at risk; lives are, too.

My mom has been chronically ill for more than twenty years, so I understand personally what’s at stake. In Congress, I’ll work to shore up and enforce the ACA, including by introducing new incentives to purchase health care on ACA markets and boost enrollment, and through legislation to establish reinsurance pools that will spread risk among providers. I’ll also fight to expand access to healthcare beyond the ACA, including through proposals that would expand Medicare and Medicaid.

Broad-Based Economic Prosperity

In Congress, I will fight every day for policies that expand the middle class and create upward economic mobility, because everyone deserves to live the American dream. For far too long, Congress has favored special interests, big corporations, and the ultra-wealthy over hard-working Americans. But trickle-down economics doesn’t work, and we need to drive growth from the bottom up. That’s why I’ll work to create jobs, raise wages, and encourage entrepreneurship. I’ll fight to make our tax code simpler and more fair. I’ll demand investment in our infrastructure. I’ll protect the right to collective bargaining. And I’ll work to make Florida a hub for new industries, like solar energy, and a place where small businesses can thrive.

Growing up in a family business where we sold furniture for a living taught me that we are all better off when we are all better off, and that our economy should be strong but also equitable. I’ll be a champion for workers, small business owners, and everyone striving to make ends meet, because every person deserves a fair shot.

Protecting the Environment

Stronger hurricanes. Rising sea levels. Toxic algal blooms polluting Lake Okeechobee and the St. Lucie River. These are the realities we are facing every day in our community. For far too long we have had politicians who pay lip service to the environment but then vote in favor of laws that help big industry and polluters. We deserve better.

Here in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast, we value protecting our environment, not just because we care about our beautiful surroundings, but because our beaches and waterways are the economic lifeblood of our community. In Congress, you can count on me to push for stronger environmental protections and ensure that our district has the funding it needs to keep our waterways clean and the Everglades healthy. I’ll fight for bipartisan climate change solutions and advance policies that move the United States towards clean energy and renewables, like solar.

I’m not taking money from big sugar, or any other corporations, because my first priority is protecting you and this beautiful place that we all love.

Gun Violence Prevention

Enough is enough. It is time for Congress to pass the kind of common sense gun safety legislation that the majority of Americans have favored for years. As a mom, I can’t imagine sending my daughter to school one day and not having her come home. But I also understand that the gun violence epidemic is more than a matter of school safety. For far too long, the epidemic has disproportionately affected women and communities of color while Congress has turned a blind eye. That’s unacceptable.

In Congress, I’ll make it my top priority to get military-style assault weapons off our streets. I’ll also vote to require universal background checks, raise the minimum purchase age to 21, keep guns out of the hands of domestic abusers and the mentally ill, clamp down on straw purchases, and ban bump-stocks. I’ll fight to ensure funding for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention to study gun violence and increase funding for mental health treatment. And I’ll take on the NRA and their dangerous plan to let out-of-state residents carry concealed weapons into our neighborhoods.

My views on gun violence prevention are steadfast and longstanding, not a reaction to the latest polls. I never have, and never will, take a penny from the gun lobby and you can count on me to always put the safety of our children and our community first.

Making Washington Work

We’re right to be fed up.

All we seem to get out of Washington is partisan politics. Congress doesn’t pass common-sense legislation anymore. And when Congress does act, it’s usually special interests who benefit.

Your representative has one job: to represent you.

That’s why I took a pledge not to accept money from corporate PACs—not one cent from big sugar, not one cent from drug companies, not one cent from banks. As a litigator, I fought to get money out of politics, and as a member of Congress I will do the same. It’s time to end the unlimited flow of dark money, overturn Citizens United, and stop foreign spending in U.S. elections. Special interest groups should be required to disclose where they spend money and who is funding them. And we need to ensure that the Federal Election Commission can enforce the laws that are already on the books.

When you take big corporate money out of the picture, it makes it easier for folks in Congress to do their job, which is to reach across the aisle and find common-sense solutions to our country’s problems. Starting with this campaign, I am promising to always put you first.

Education

Our kids deserve the very best public education. As a proud graduate of Palm Beach County public schools, I know that we can prepare the next generation for success. But Congress has to do its part. As your Congresswoman, I’ll fight for funding to pay our teachers what they deserve and to provide our classrooms with the best technology and supplies. I’ll work to expand early childhood education through programs like Head Start, and work to strengthen learning opportunities in science, technology, and the arts. I’ll push back on the dangerous Betsy DeVos agenda, which is using voucher programs to strip our public schools of resources. At the same time, I’ll work to expand technical and vocational education, because we should be able to graduate students who are career-ready.

When it comes to college, I’m committed to making it affordable. Our young people shouldn’t have to take on overwhelming debt in order to get a degree. I’ll support increases in Pell Grant funding, expansion of community colleges, and legislation that lowers student loan interest rates. I’ll also treat education as a life-long experience, which means investing in job training (and re-training) to prepare workers for the careers of the 21st century and help our Florida economy thrive.

Keeping America Safe

The United States remains safe because we have the strongest, best equipped, and most well-trained military in the world. But the risks to our country are too great to conduct foreign policy by tweet, and American leadership is too important to cede it to other countries.

Today, more than ever, we need leaders who understand world affairs and who will fight for a foreign policy that protects American interests and projects Americans values. I was proud to serve for six years as an official in the State Department, advising two different Secretaries of State and the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. And I’ll take that foreign policy expertise to Congress.

I’ll fight to keep our military strong, but I’ll also work to preserve diplomacy and foreign assistance in order to build the kind of partnerships we need to make peace and keep us secure at home. I’ll advance American values, like democracy, good governance, human rights, and the rule of law. And I’ll work to open markets to U.S. businesses, create a level playing field for U.S. companies, and ensure stability in the global financial system.

I’ll also ensure that, as our most important ally in the Middle East, Israel remains secure, that the United States works to support a two-state solution, and that we fight anti-Israel bias and anti-Semitism wherever it occurs.

Women’s Rights

From the classroom to the boardroom, women deserve equality and respect. This is a basic issue of fairness, but it’s also an issue of dollars and cents. Full gender equality in the workplace could boost the U.S. economy by a staggering $4.3 trillion in about a decade. I’ve been a staunch advocate for women’s rights throughout my career, and I’ll be an equally strong advocate in the halls of Congress. I’ll push for equal educational opportunities for girls, demand equal pay for equal work, and fight domestic violence, sexual harassment, and assault wherever they occur.

As a woman and a mom, I understand the importance of reproductive choice, which is why I will always defend a woman’s right to choose. I’ll also fight to ensure that all women—regardless of race, class, or sexual orientation—have access to the healthcare they need. No woman should face discrimination at work because of a pregnancy, and every American should have access to paid family and sick leave, because giving people time to care for each other is good for families and the economy.

It’s not enough to say #metoo or #timesup. We need representatives in Congress who will fight for our rights and break down the barriers of gender discrimination once and for all.

Veterans

American is safe because of the men and women who put on the uniform every day and serve our country. It is therefore our most solemn duty to honor our veterans and their families.

In Congress, I’ll fight to modernize the Department of Veterans Affairs and make it work better, because no veteran should have to wait months for care or have their claims denied without transparency and accountability. Our veterans should have the highest quality healthcare, access to comprehensive mental health treatment, and the resources they need to live full and happy civilian lives. That’s why I’ll push back against efforts to privatize the VA. And it’s why I’ll work to expand educational and job training opportunities for veterans, increase incentives for business to hire veterans, and combat veteran homelessness—because no veteran should have to live on the street or go to sleep hungry.

Our veterans and military families have sacrificed so that we might be secure and free; they deserve only the best in return.

Caring for Our Seniors

There’s a reason so many people retire to our District, and it’s not just the beautiful weather. Here in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast, we care for our seniors, ensuring that everyone can age with dignity, security, and respect.

The thing is, our seniors are under threat. The massive deficit caused by the Republican tax plan is being used an excuse to make cuts to Medicare and Social Security, and our friends, neighbors, and loved ones will suffer as a result. With almost ten percent of Florida seniors already living in poverty, we just can’t afford to make those kinds of cuts.

In Congress, I’ll fight to preserve Medicare and Social Security. I’ll stand up to big pharma, and fight to lower the costs of prescription drugs. I’ll work to combat discrimination against the elderly in all of its forms.

Whether you’re a seasonal resident or a full-time Floridian, I’ll work every day to ensure that you can enjoy your golden years with the grace and dignity that we all deserve.

Protecting Civil Rights and the Rule of Law

The great promise of our country is that every individual is entitled to liberty, justice, and equality under the law. This promise is true for each one of us, regardless of the color of our skin, the God we worship, the language we speak, the place we come from, or the person we love. America is best when it leads with these values, and I will fight every day to ensure that every person in our community and our country is treated with dignity and respect, and lives free from discrimination and fear.

For over 200 years, our democracy has survived and thrived because we have committed ourselves wholeheartedly to the values enshrined in our Constitution and strived to always seek a more perfect union. Today, as we face threats to freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as our leaders flout due process and equal protection, and as abuses of power become frighteningly common, it is more important than ever to redouble our commitment to American values and the rule of law. As your Congresswoman, I will be a stalwart defender of the rights and freedoms of each one of us, because we are stronger as a people and a nation when we uphold the principles that make our country the beacon of light for democracy around the world.

Immigration

The United States is a country of immigrants, and our strength lies in our diversity. Since the days our founding fathers, people have come to America seeking a better life for themselves and their children, and through their contributions have made our economy stronger, our society richer, and our nation more secure. We therefore honor the best of America’s values when we recognize the enduring benefit of our friends, family members, and colleagues who are foreigners by birth, but Americans by choice.

In Congress, I will fight for comprehensive immigration reform and ensure that it includes a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, who were brought to the United States as children and often know no other home. I’ll also work to attract and retain highly-skilled immigrants who can grow our economy; ensure that we uphold our international commitments to provide a safe haven for asylum seekers and refugees; and work to create pathways to legalized status for undocumented individuals who are nonetheless contributing members of our society. I believe that we can, and must, do all of this while ensuring that we keep our country safe and our immigration system fair.[22]

”
—Baer for Congress[23]

Republican Party Brian Mast

“

FIGHTING FOR CLEAN WATER & PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT

The most important issue for our community is the devastation of our water. This impacts everyone: businesses forced to close, people getting sick, animals killed, and our environment destroyed. Health and safety needs to be made a top priority to prevent these discharges. Our work in this area is not about one party or any individual; it is about defending our community by putting all people and our environment first.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Securing a commitment to authorize the EAA Southern Storage Reservoir
  • Passing hundreds of millions of dollars to combat harmful algal blooms, prevent toxic agricultural runoff and restore the Everglades
  • Fully funding expedited completion of the Herbert Hoover Dike
  • Passing legislation forcing the Army Corps to re-evaluate their discharge schedule
  • Passing legislation funding the development of technology to clean massive discharges of water
  • Serving as Vice Chairman of the Water Resources & Environment Subcommittee

MAKING HEALTHCARE MORE AFFORDABLE

There’s no doubt the rising cost of healthcare caused by Obamacare has burdened American families and created a massive increase in bureaucracy resulting in less choice. In fact, Martin and St. Lucie counties now have only one provider on the individual exchange. We need healthcare in the United States that increases choice and enables Americans to choose the doctors and plans that fit their specific needs, while still protecting individuals with pre-existing conditions and drastically lowering costs. We also need to eliminate red tape to speed up the development of life saving cures and drive down costs for prescription drugs. When reforming our healthcare system, we also must protect and improve care for seniors and veterans.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Eliminating Obamacare’s individual mandate tax
  • Securing a new law to lower prescription drug costs
  • Voting to decrease individual market premiums
  • Strengthening protection against fraud for Social Security beneficiaries
  • Passing legislation to expand affordable health coverage
  • Securing $6 billion to combat the opioid epidemic
  • Protecting Medicare benefits and voted to expand access to treatments through Medicare
  • Increasing support for Alzheimer’s patients
  • Increasing funding for cancer research
  • Extending the Children’s Health Insurance Program for 10 years
  • Writing a new law protecting health care benefits for veterans

ENSURING CARE FOR SENIORS

I will always protect Social Security and Medicare, ensuring our government keeps the promises it has made to current retirees and those planning to retire. I absolutely do not support cutting benefits for current retirees or anybody nearing retirement. In order to accomplish difficult objectives in times of crisis, I know that we must work together. So, I will continue to be a leading voice for addressing the critical solvency issue of Social Security and Medicare in a bipartisan way that protects care for seniors.

Our accomplishments include:

  • No cuts to Medicare
  • Passing legislation to strengthen Medicare
  • Voting to protect social security beneficiaries
  • Securing a new law to crack down on crimes targeting seniors
  • Protecting tax benefits for retirement savings
  • Writing a new law to protect benefits like nursing home care for veterans
  • Serving as a member of the Congressional Task Force on Alzheimer’s Disease
  • Increasing support for Alzheimer’s patients

IMPROVING CARE FOR VETERANS

Every Veteran who the VA serves must be treated as the most important veteran to ever be served. Anything less is unacceptable because every veteran who has sworn the oath, worn the uniform, and offered to give the last beat of their heart cannot not be taken for granted. That’s why I support giving veterans the flexibility to choose anytime, anywhere medical care and opened the first-ever office inside the West Palm Beach VA facility to provide on-the-spot support to veterans in our community. Veterans gave every American their best, and deserve the best care our nation has to offer.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Opening the first-ever Congressional office inside a VA hospital
  • Writing a new law protecting critical veteran’s benefits
  • Expanding Healthcare choice for veterans
  • Increasing access to GI bill benefits
  • Passing a new law to protect whistleblowers and increase accountability at the VA

BOOSTING THE ECONOMY

We must fight for working families by expanding opportunities and creating an economic environment that allows for job growth. The explosive growth of government regulations during the previous Administration hurt both economic growth and job creation. Making life work for families in our community starts with reducing government interference in every-day life, reducing government-imposed costs, and increasing individual liberty. Additionally, we must prioritize infrastructure projects, especially water infrastructure around Lake Okeechobee, to stop the devastation of our economy being caused by toxic water discharges.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Passing legislation requiring Congressional approval of new major regulations
  • Overturning more than a dozen overreaching Obama-era regulations
  • Investing hundreds of millions of dollars in South Florida water infrastructure
  • Securing a commitment to authorize the EAA Southern Storage Reservoir
  • Introducing legislation securing federal resources to support communities impacted by harmful algal blooms
  • Cutting taxes for American families, including doubling the standard deduction and child tax credit

CUTTING TAXES AND BALANCING THE BUDGET

Our current spending is unsustainable, which is why I’ve voted against irresponsible spending packages. We must pass a Balance Budget Amendment that will force government to live within its means. The tax cuts passed have allowed you to keep more of your money, stimulated the economy, and led to more investment. Now, we must continue working to close special interest loopholes and lobbyist-driven deductions, while making the individual tax cuts permanent.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Passing major tax cuts for American families
  • Doubling the child tax credit
  • Eliminating Obamacare’s costly individual mandate
  • Voting in favor of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution

STOPPING BRIGHTLINE

I am 100% against Brightline (also known as All Aboard Florida). This is a vitally important issue in our community, as the train routes go right through the heart of our district without stopping. It would bring down property values, disrupt emergency responders, and with so many more proposed train routes, it’s going to put our children in increased danger going to and from school. Our town is against it, our environment is against it, and I’m against it.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Forcing Brightline executives to testify before Congress
  • Initiating a Department of Homeland Security study into Brightline’s plans
  • Exposing Brightline’s lies and abuse of taxpayer dollars

STRENGTHENING NATIONAL SECURITY AND REBUILDING OUR MILITARY

As a former combat soldier based in Afghanistan, I have seen the enemy face to face. I also know the war we are in is not only a war of military force; it is a war of ideology. ISIS seeks to destroy western civilization, and our very way of life. President Obama’s half-hearted, inconsistent policy failed, which is why we are working to quickly rebuild our military and put our troops on the front line in the best possible position to succeed.

As a Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, I know we must also work to combat aggression from Iran, North Korea, Russia, and other adversaries who work to undermine global security. I strongly opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal and commend President Trump for withdrawing from it. That’s why I’ve voted to institute new sanctions on Iran, as well as North Korea and Russia. Moreover, Russia’s attempts to sow discord in the American electoral process must not be tolerated and must be met with a strong response to protect the foundation of our democracy.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Passing increased funding to rebuild our military
  • Increasing troop pay
  • Passing new sanctions on Iran, Russia and North Korea
  • Increasing cooperation between Israel and the United States for missile defense
  • Strongly supporting withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

SUPPORTING OUR ALLY ISRAEL

As a strong supporter of the state of Israel, I believe we must continue to repair the U.S. – Israel Relationship that was strained under the previous Administration. It was a great honor to volunteer alongside the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) following my service in the Army because the United States and Israel share common values like freedom and respect for human dignity. As a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, I have worked to oppose the dangerous BDS movement, support Israel’s efforts to counter instability in the Middle East, and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Introducing legislation to combat radical Islamic terrorism
  • Passing legislation to cut off U.S. aid funding being used to reward anti-Israel terrorists
  • Increasing U.S. – Israel joint missile defense activities
  • Increasing sanctions on Iran
  • Working to combat the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement
  • Strongly supporting withdrawal from the Iran deal and recognition of Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel
  • Serving as a member of the Bipartisan Task Force to Combat Anti-Semitism
  • Participating in a Congressional delegation to Israel

SECURING THE BORDER & FIXING IMMIGRATION

We all know our immigration system, illegal and legal, is broken. For far too long, politicians in Washington haven’t had the will to fix it. For starters, we must secure the border and prevent visa overstays. We must also reform our legal immigration system to end arbitrary policies that continue to hurt our economy so we can be welcoming to those who want to be in the United States and follow our laws. The time is long overdue for Congress to lead on this issue by fixing the crisis on the border, defunding sanctuary cities, providing a solution for DACA recipients, and strengthening the rule of law.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Voting for legislation that would fund completion of a border wall
  • Voting to provide legal certainty to DACA recipients
  • Voting to end the separation of children from their parents at the border
  • Voting to end chain migration and the visa lottery program
  • Voting for legislation to defund sanctuary cities
  • Voting for legislation to implement E-Verify nationwide

DEFENDING THE SECOND AMENDMENT

I have carried a rifle and a pistol for most of my adult life and fired both in defense of every American and myself. The right to defend ourselves is God-given. It is not a right provided to us by our federal government, but rather, the right to keep and bear arms is a right the federal government is sworn to protect. I will continue to uphold the oath I took to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, and I will fight to protect our Second Amendment from all attempts to erode it.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Passing legislation to protect the 2ndAmendment rights of concealed carry permit holders
  • Strengthening background checks without infringing on 2ndAmendment rights

WORKING FOR SAFER COMMUNITIES

I see my mission in Congress the same way I saw it in the military: keeping Americans safe. That’s why I’ve made community safety, health, and strength top priorities during my time in Congress. That means equipping our local law enforcement with the support they need to fight crime, prevent terrorism, reduce gun violence, stop domestic violence, prevent opioid overdose, and much more. This often takes hard, bipartisan problem solving, but the fact is Members of Congress aren’t elected to just make easy votes. We must act now to save lives by reducing violence.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Increasing funding for school security
  • Securing $6 billion to combat the opioid epidemic
  • Passing legislation to strengthen background checks
  • Supporting commonsense legislation to reduce gun violence
  • Passing several new laws to prevent sex trafficking and increase support for survivors of domestic violence or other sexual abuse
  • Passing more than 50 bills to combat the opioid epidemic

DEFENDING LIFE

As a father of three beautiful children with a fourth on the way, I’m a strong supporter of the right to life. I believe we must defend life at every stage and protect the most vulnerable members of our society. After serving in the Army for more than 12 years, I know what it means to protect life and see life lost. Our priority should always be to protect the innocent.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Passing legislation to protect the unborn
  • Voting to prohibit taxpayer funding for abortion
  • Voting to increase protections for infants born alive after a failed abortion procedure

MAKING EDUCATION WORK FOR EVERYBODY

Washington should not be mandating curriculum for states. On the contrary, each state should be a laboratory for innovation so states compete with each other for the best results. School choice is a very important issue for me, and I will continue advocating for dollars to follow students so parents can decide which school is best for their children.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Overturning Obama-era regulations imposing federal standards on local schools
  • Improving career and technical education policies to help more students compete for in-demand jobs
  • Passing legislation increasing accessibility of job training and skills development programs
  • Increasing access to G.I. Bill benefits for veterans

INCREASING ACCOUNTABILITY

Washington, DC wastes far too much money on programs that either don’t work, have outlived their usefulness, or should never have existed in the first place. Members of Congress love to create programs, but they don’t spend much time checking to see if taxpayers are getting their money’s worth. I pride myself on being a taxpayer watchdog and supporting efforts to make the federal government more efficient, effective, and accountable.

Our accomplishments include:

  • Cutting taxes
  • Voting for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution
  • Eliminating costly Obama-era federal mandates
  • Eliminating an unaccountable Obamacare board with power to cut Medicare payments
  • Supporting term limits for Congress
  • Passing a new law to protect federal whistleblowers
  • Voting to prevent Members of Congress from using taxpayer dollars to cover up workplace harassment[22]
 ”
—Mast for Congress[24]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Lauren Baer Facebook

Republican Party Brian Mast Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[25][26]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 18th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D) chose not to seek re-election in 2016 in order to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Brian Mast (R) defeated Randy Perkins (D), Carla Spalding (I), and write-in candidate Marilyn Holloman in the general election on November 8, 2016. Perkins defeated Jonathan Chane and John Xuna in the Democratic primary, while Mast defeated Rebecca Negron, Carl Domino, Rick Kozell, Noelle Nikpour, and Mark Freeman to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36]

U.S. House, Florida District 18 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBrian Mast 53.6% 201,488
     Democratic Randy Perkins 43.1% 161,918
     Independent Carla Spalding 3.3% 12,503
     N/A Write-in 0% 9
Total Votes 375,918
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 18 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrian Mast 38% 24,099
Rebecca Negron 25.6% 16,242
Mark Freeman 15.8% 10,000
Carl Domino 12.5% 7,942
Rick Kozell 6.8% 4,334
Noelle Nikpour 1.3% 835
Total Votes 63,452
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. House, Florida District 18 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRandy Perkins 60.4% 27,861
Jonathan Chane 32.3% 14,897
John Xuna 7.4% 3,394
Total Votes 46,152
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 18th Congressional District elections, 2014

Florida's 18th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the race had a very low margin of victory in the last election. Incumbent Patrick Murphy faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Carl Domino triumphed over Calvin Turnquest, Alan Schlesinger, Beverly Joy Hires, Nick Robert Wukoson and Brian Lara. Murphy then defeated Domino in the general election on November 4, 2014.[37][38]

U.S. House, Florida District 18 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Murphy Incumbent 59.8% 151,478
     Republican Carl Domino 40.2% 101,896
Total Votes 253,374
Source: Florida Division of Elections

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[39][40]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed October 19, 2018
  4. ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed October 19, 2018
  5. ↑ Elect GOP Patriots, "Home," accessed October 19, 2018
  6. ↑ Baer for Congress, "Meet Lauren," accessed October 21, 2018
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 TCPalm, "Meet the candidate: Lauren Baer, District 18, U.S. House of Representatives," June 7, 2018
  8. ↑ Mast for Congress, "About," accessed October 21, 2018
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 TCPalm, "Meet the candidate: Brian Mast, District 18, U.S. House of Representatives," June 8, 2018
  10. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  11. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  12. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  13. ↑ Twitter, "Ad Analytics," October 11, 2018
  14. ↑ Twitter, "Schmitz Media," October 22, 2018
  15. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1266850," accessed October 19, 2018
  16. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  18. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  19. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  21. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  23. ↑ Baer for Congress, "Immigration," accessed October 21, 2018
  24. ↑ Mast for Congress, "Issues," accessed October 21, 2018
  25. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  26. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  27. ↑ TCPalm, "Rebecca Negron files to run for Patrick Murphy's seat," April 14, 2015
  28. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Republican Carl Domino says he’s running again for Patrick Murphy’s House seat," May 5, 2015
  29. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "War vet Brian Mast, attorney Rick Kozell launch GOP bids for open Patrick Murphy seat," June 8, 2015
  30. ↑ Twitter, "Emily Cahn," August 4, 2015
  31. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "Belle Glade farmer Rick Roth of Wellington to run for U.S. Congress," August 12, 2015
  32. ↑ Carla Spalding for Congress, "Home," accessed January 4, 2016
  33. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Hurricane-cleanup CEO set to join Dem race for Murphy U.S. House seat," November 17, 2015
  34. ↑ Jonathan Chane for Congress, "Home," accessed January 12, 2016
  35. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  36. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  37. ↑ Associated Press, "Primary Results 2014," accessed August 26, 2014
  38. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014
  39. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  40. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
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Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
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Neal Dunn (R)
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Anna Luna (R)
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Republican Party (22)
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