March 8 primary and caucus preview: Michigan, Michigan, Michigan
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Presidential election in Michigan, 2016
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This page was current as of the 2016 election.
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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March 7, 2016
There may not be a slew of presidential nominating contests on March 8, but for both parties, the Michigan primary could be a pivotal event in the course of both the Democratic and Republican presidential races. It is the last major primary, and last chance for a candidate to generate momentum heading into the five-state primary bonanza on March 15, which could effectively settle both races.
For Democrats, Michigan is an opportunity for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to demonstrate that his message appeals to Midwestern voters, who will assume a more prominent role in the nominating calendar as states in that region start to hold primaries. But if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prevails in Michigan, she will be able to make the case that she has the broadest base (and a significant lead in delegates) to be the Democratic standard-bearer in the general election.
For Republicans, it represents for the frontrunner Donald Trump to tighten his grip on the GOP nomination and for his rivals it represents a chance to steal some momentum before March 15, which is do-or-die time for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who both must when their home-state primaries on that date. For Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Michigan represents an opportunity for him to demonstrate strength in a large industrial state outside the South.
Michigan has a history of delivering presidential primary upsets. The Alabama Gov. George C. Wallace won the Democratic primary there in 1972 and civil rights leader Jesse Jackson won the Democratic caucus-like contest in 1988. In 2000, Arizona Sen. John McCain beat George W. Bush in the GOP primary.
There are other contests on Tuesday: Mississippi will hold a primary for both parties’ White House hopefuls, and Republican candidates will compete in a primary in Idaho. Hawaii Republicans will also conduct caucuses. As a frontrunner, Trump could be competitive in all of these states. Cruz will look to contest Idaho and Mississippi. Given his victory in the GOP Puerto Rico primary last Sunday, Rubio could be a contender in more a more diverse state like Hawaii. On the Democratic side, Clinton is a heavy favorite in Mississippi. She has dominated Southern primaries with large African-American Democratic electorates.
Registered voters by state:
| State | Total | Republican |
| Hawaii | 706,890 | |
| Idaho | 740,041 | 298,211 |
| Michigan | 6,575,403 | |
| Mississippi | 1,856,533 |
There is no party registration in Michigan and Mississippi. Any registered voter can vote in either presidential primary. There is no Election Day registration. In order to participate in the primary, a voter must have been registered by January 31 in Michigan and February 9th in Mississippi. Only registered Republicans can vote in the Idaho GOP primary. Any Hawaii eligible voter may register to vote, sign a Republican Party card, and vote in the caucus. Unregistered voters with ID wishing to vote may register, and join the party, on the day of and at the place of the caucus election.
Which candidates will be helped by a large turnout varies from state to state. Sanders is likely to benefit from a large turnout in Michigan. If that happens it could be a sign that working Democratic-leaning voters are not crossing over to vote for Trump in the GOP primary. Trump could benefit from a large turnout in Michigan, just as McCain did in 2000.
Past Michigan Presidential Primary Turnout:
| Year | Dem Vote | Rep Vote |
| 2012 | -- | 996,499 |
| 2008 | 601,219 | 869,169 |
| 2004 | -- | -- |
| 2000 | -- | 1,276,770 |
| 1996 | 142,750 | 524,161 |
| 1992 | 585,972 | 449,133 |
| 1980 | 78,424 | 595,276 |
| 1976 | 708,666 | 1,062,814 |
| 1972 | 1,588,073 | 336,743 |
Large turnouts in Mississippi are likely to help Clinton and Trump.
Past Mississippi Presidential Primary Turnout:
| Year | Dem Vote | Rep Vote |
| 2012 | 97,304 | 294,112 |
| 2008 | 434,152 | 145,395 |
| 2004 | 76,298 | -- |
| 2000 | 88,602 | 114,979 |
| 1996 | 93,788 | 151,925 |
| 1992 | 191,357 | 154,708 |
| 1988 | 359,417 | 158,526 |
In Mississippi 17 year-olds can vote in the Presidential primary if they will be 18 by the November General Election.
Past Idaho Presidential GOP Primary Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2012 | 125,570 |
| 2008 | 158,446 |
| 1996 | 118,715 |
| 1992 | 115,502 |
Past Hawaii GOP Presidential Caucus Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2012 | 10,228 |
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
