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New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Debra Haaland (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in New Mexico
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd
New Mexico elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of New Mexico, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Debra Haaland won election in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 10, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Debra Haaland, who was first elected in 2018.

New Mexico's 1st Congressional District is located in the north-central portion of the state and includes all of Torrance and parts of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Santa Fe, and Valencia counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 60.2 58.2
Republican candidate Republican Party 37.4 41.8
Difference 22.8 16.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New Mexico modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Incumbent Debra Haaland defeated Michelle Garcia Holmes in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Debra Haaland
Debra Haaland (D)
 
58.2
 
186,953
Image of Michelle Garcia Holmes
Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) Candidate Connection
 
41.8
 
134,337

Total votes: 321,290
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Incumbent Debra Haaland advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Debra Haaland
Debra Haaland
 
100.0
 
83,032

Total votes: 83,032
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Michelle Garcia Holmes defeated Jared Vander Dussen and Brett Kokinadis in the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michelle Garcia Holmes
Michelle Garcia Holmes Candidate Connection
 
48.1
 
23,783
Image of Jared Vander Dussen
Jared Vander Dussen
 
40.2
 
19,847
Image of Brett Kokinadis
Brett Kokinadis Candidate Connection
 
11.7
 
5,798

Total votes: 49,428
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Colfax County, New Mexico 8.55% 2.24% 10.73%
Hidalgo County, New Mexico 6.73% 4.96% 2.92%
Valencia County, New Mexico 8.60% 2.47% 7.72%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New Mexico's 1st Congressional District the 143rd most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Debra Haaland Democratic Party $2,274,489 $1,903,520 $390,843 As of December 31, 2020
Michelle Garcia Holmes Republican Party $395,288 $383,584 $11,705 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in New Mexico in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New Mexico, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New Mexico 1st Congressional District Democratic 1,269 2% of votes cast for all the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary election (within the district) N/A N/A 2/4/2020 Source
New Mexico 1st Congressional District Republican 410 2% of votes cast for all the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary election (within the district) N/A N/A 2/4/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Debra Haaland defeated Janice Arnold-Jones and Lloyd Princeton in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Debra Haaland
Debra Haaland (D)
 
59.1
 
147,336
Image of Janice Arnold-Jones
Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Candidate Connection
 
36.3
 
90,507
Image of Lloyd Princeton
Lloyd Princeton (L)
 
4.5
 
11,319

Total votes: 249,162
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Debra Haaland
Debra Haaland
 
40.6
 
25,444
Image of Damon Martinez
Damon Martinez
 
25.8
 
16,182
Image of Antoinette Sedillo Lopez
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez
 
20.6
 
12,919
Image of Paul Moya
Paul Moya
 
5.9
 
3,691
Image of Patrick Davis
Patrick Davis
 
3.8
 
2,385
Image of Damian Lara
Damian Lara
 
3.3
 
2,063

Total votes: 62,684
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Janice Arnold-Jones advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Janice Arnold-Jones
Janice Arnold-Jones Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
19,316

Total votes: 19,316
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1

Lloyd Princeton advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Lloyd Princeton
Lloyd Princeton
 
100.0
 
244

Total votes: 244
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeated Richard Priem in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[13]

U.S. House, New Mexico District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMichelle Lujan Grisham Incumbent 65.1% 181,088
     Republican Richard Priem 34.9% 96,879
Total Votes 277,967
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

2014

See also: New Mexico's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of New Mexico held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) defeated Mike Frese (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Mexico District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMichelle Lujan Grisham Incumbent 58.6% 105,474
     Republican Mike Frese 41.4% 74,558
Total Votes 180,032
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Democratic Party (5)