Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Oregon's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: May 19, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Earl Blumenauer (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oregon's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th
Oregon elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer won election in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 10, 2020
May 19, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Earl Blumenauer, who was first elected in 1996.

Oregon's 3rd Congressional District is located in the northeastern corner of the state and includes portions of Clackamas and Multnomah counties.[2]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oregon's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 74.3 73
Republican candidate Republican Party 23.5 23.5
Difference 50.8 49.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oregon did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Joanna Harbour, Alex DiBlasi, and Josh Solomon in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer (D / Working Families Party)
 
73.0
 
343,574
Image of Joanna Harbour
Joanna Harbour (R) Candidate Connection
 
23.5
 
110,570
Image of Alex DiBlasi
Alex DiBlasi (Pacific Green Party) Candidate Connection
 
1.9
 
8,872
Josh Solomon (L)
 
1.5
 
6,869
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
621

Total votes: 470,506
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Albert Lee, Dane Wilcox, Matthew Davis, and Charles Rand Barnett in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer
 
80.5
 
140,812
Image of Albert Lee
Albert Lee Candidate Connection
 
16.8
 
29,311
Dane Wilcox
 
1.1
 
1,966
Matthew Davis
 
0.6
 
1,101
Charles Rand Barnett
 
0.5
 
953
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
714

Total votes: 174,857
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Joanna Harbour defeated Tom Harrison and Frank Hecker in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Joanna Harbour
Joanna Harbour Candidate Connection
 
62.8
 
21,114
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison Candidate Connection
 
23.1
 
7,751
Frank Hecker Candidate Connection
 
12.3
 
4,147
 Other/Write-in votes
 
1.8
 
612

Total votes: 33,624
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Josh Solomon advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on July 6, 2020.

Candidate
Josh Solomon (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pacific Green Party convention

Pacific Green Party convention for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Alex DiBlasi advanced from the Pacific Green Party convention for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on June 6, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Alex DiBlasi
Alex DiBlasi (Pacific Green Party) Candidate Connection

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon 11.46% 5.16% 12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon 5.58% 4.86% 9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+24, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Oregon's 3rd Congressional District the 48th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Earl Blumenauer Working Families Party, Democratic Party $1,828,861 $1,963,949 $757,345 As of December 31, 2020
Joanna Harbour Republican Party $17,681 $14,502 $3,179 As of December 31, 2020
Josh Solomon Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Alex DiBlasi Pacific Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Oregon in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Oregon, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Oregon 3rd Congressional District Major party 0 N/A $100.00 Fixed number 3/10/2020 Source
Oregon 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated 4,210 1% of votes cast in the district for president N/A N/A 8/25/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Tom Harrison, Marc Koller, Gary Dye, and Michael P. Marsh in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer (D)
 
72.6
 
279,019
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison (R)
 
19.8
 
76,187
Image of Marc Koller
Marc Koller (Independent Party of Oregon) Candidate Connection
 
5.6
 
21,352
Image of Gary Dye
Gary Dye (L)
 
1.5
 
5,767
Image of Michael P. Marsh
Michael P. Marsh (Constitution Party)
 
0.4
 
1,487
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
514

Total votes: 384,326
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Incumbent Earl Blumenauer defeated Ben Lavine, Charles Rand Barnett, and Eric Hafner in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Earl Blumenauer
Earl Blumenauer
 
91.0
 
91,226
Image of Ben Lavine
Ben Lavine
 
6.0
 
6,008
Charles Rand Barnett
 
1.6
 
1,586
Image of Eric Hafner
Eric Hafner Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
1,377

Total votes: 100,197
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Tom Harrison advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
Image of Tom Harrison
Tom Harrison

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Independent Party of Oregon primary election

Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3

Marc Koller defeated David Walker in the Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Marc Koller
Marc Koller Candidate Connection
 
55.7
 
930
Image of David Walker
David Walker
 
44.3
 
741

Total votes: 1,671
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2016

See also: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Earl Blumenauer (D) defeated David Walker (Independent) and David Delk (Progressive) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No Republican candidates filed to run in the race.[13][14]

U.S. House, Oregon District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEarl Blumenauer Incumbent 71.8% 274,687
     Independent David Walker 20.4% 78,154
     Progressive David Delk 7.3% 27,978
     N/A Misc. 0.4% 1,536
Total Votes 382,355
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also: Oregon's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Earl Blumenauer (D) defeated James Buchal (Republican, independent and Constitution Party), Jeffrey Langan (L), Michael Meo (Pacific Green Party) and David Walker (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEarl Blumenauer Incumbent 72.3% 211,748
     Republican James Buchal 19.6% 57,424
     Libertarian Jeffrey Langan 2.2% 6,381
     Green Michael Meo 4.1% 12,106
     Independent David Walker 1.4% 4,009
     Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 0.4% 1,089
Total Votes 292,757
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 Oregon is a vote-by-mail state. Polling hours apply to vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  14. The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016


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Val Hoyle (D)
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