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Oregon's 5th Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
May 15, 2012 |
Kurt Schrader  |
Kurt Schrader |
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The 5th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Incumbent Kurt Schrader (D) was re-elected on November 6, 2012, having defeated Fred Thompson (R), Christina Jean Lugo (Pacific Green) and Raymond Baldwin (Constitution) in the general election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Oregon has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary April 24. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 16.[2]
- See also: Oregon elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Kurt Schrader, (D), who has served since 2009 and won re-election on November 6, 2012.
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. Oregon's 5th Congressional District is located in the northwestern portion of the state and includes Clackamas, Marion, Polk and Lincoln counties.[3]
Candidates
General election candidates
May 15, 2012, primary results
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Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Kurt Schrader Incumbent |
54% | 177,229 | |
| Republican | Fred Thompson | 42.4% | 139,223 | |
| Green | Christina Jean Lugo | 2.3% | 7,516 | |
| Constitution | Raymond Baldwin | 1.1% | 3,600 | |
| Write-In | N/A | 0.1% | 402 | |
| Total Votes | 327,970 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Fred Thompson |
67.4% | 33,448 |
| Karen Bowerman | 32.6% | 16,174 |
| Total Votes | 49,622 | |
Race background
Competitiveness
Oregon's 5th was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader was challenged by Fred Thompson (R) in a district which was made more competitive by redistricting.[7]
In August, 2012, Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Report rated the district as safe Democratic.[8][9]
Schrader defeated Thompson in the general election by a margin of over ten percentage points.[10]
Impact of Redistricting
- See also Redistricting in Oregon
The 5th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[11][12]
- 9 percent from the 3rd Congressional District
- 91 percent from the 5th Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 30, 2012, District 5 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Oregon Secretary of State:
| Oregon Congressional District 5[13] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 5 | 398,500 | 151,681 | 142,740 | 104,079 | Democratic | 6.26% | -6.08% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Oregon's 5th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[14]
- 2012: 51D / 49R
- 2010: 52D / 48R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Oregon's 5th Congressional District has a PVI of "even," and is ranked the 186th most Democratic district in the county. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 55-45 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-349 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]
Campaign media
Campaign sites
Kurt Schrader |
Fred Thompson |
Raymond Baldwin |
Campaign Advertisements
Kurt Schrader
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Raymond Baldwin
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Campaign finance
| Fred Thompson (2012)[16] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly | April 13, 2012 | $0 | $4,970 | $(4) | $4,965 | ||||
| Pre-Primary | May 3, 2012 | $4,965 | $665 | $(2,458) | $3,171 | ||||
| July Quarterly | July 13, 2012 | $3,171 | $2,373 | $(5,008) | $536 | ||||
| October Quarterly[17] | October 15, 2012 | $536.63 | $12,628.24 | $(9,551.97) | $3,612.90 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $20,636.24 | $(17,021.97) | ||||||||
| Kurt Schrader (2012)[18] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly | April 3, 2012 | $657,296 | $189,686 | $(56,974) | $790,008 | ||||
| Pre-Primary | May 3, 2012 | $790,008 | $14,796 | $(73,575) | $731,229 | ||||
| July Quarterly[19] | July 13, 2013 | $731,229.49 | $239,903.46 | $(76,743.23) | $894,389.72 | ||||
| October Quarterly[20] | October 15, 2012 | $894,389.72 | $315,695.00 | $(183,630.39) | $1,026,454.33 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $760,080.46 | $(390,922.62) | ||||||||
District history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Schrader won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Scott Bruun and Chris Lugo in the general election.[21]
| U.S. House, Oregon District 5 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Kurt Schrader Incumbent |
51.3% | 145,319 | |
| Republican | Scott Bruun | 46% | 130,313 | |
| Pacific Green | Chris Lugo | 2.7% | 7,557 | |
| Total Votes | 283,189 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ CNN "Oregon Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"
- ↑ OregonVotes, "Important Election Dates," accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 9, 2012
- ↑ OregonCity News Thompson announces another run for 5th Congressional District seat December 9, 2011
- ↑ Lake Oswego Review "LO resident announces run for Congress" accessed March 8, 2012
- ↑ Orestar Candidate Filing
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ Center for Politics, "Sabato's Crystal Ball," August 28, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Report, "Race ratings," August 15, 2012
- ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "General election results," accessed November 13, 2012
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Oregon's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ Oregon Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Reports, 2012," May, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Oregon," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Fred Thompson 2012 Candidate Detail," accessed October 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Fred Thompson October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader 2012 Candidate Detail," accessed October 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader July Quarterly Report," July 15, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
