What to look for in the April 26 presidential primaries
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April 26 presidential primary elections, 2016
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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April 25, 2016
When voters go to the polls in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island on April 26 to cast ballots in Democratic and Republican primaries, it is one of the last real chances to derail the parties’ two respective presidential frontrunners, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and billionaire developer Donald Trump. And if the pre-primaries polls are accurate, that’s going to be a very difficult task for Clinton rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders as well as Trump’s remaining GOP opponents, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
For Sanders, his best opportunities for an upset may be in Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Connecticut has never been a favorite of the Clintons’: in 1992, Jerry Brown upset Bill Clinton in the state’s presidential primary; and in 2008, Barack Obama likewise defeated Hillary Clinton (both losses were narrow ones). Connecticut Democratic voters can be a rambunctious bunch as was the case in 2006 when they rejected incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman in his re-nomination bid in the primary and backed Ned Lamont, an entrepreneur and opponent of the Iraq War, which Lieberman supported. (Lieberman subsequently ran as an independent and beat Lamont in the 2006 general election.)
Connecticut Past Primary Vote
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Barack Obama 179,742 51%
Hillary Clinton 165,426 47%
2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Mitt Romney 40,17 67%
Ron Paul 8,032 13%
Newt Gingrich 6,135 10%
Rick Santorum 4,072 7%
But this is also the state of the 2012 mass shooting tragedy at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown and Clinton has repeatedly hit Sanders for his past support of legislation that included a provision granting some liability protection to gun manufacturers and sellers when their weapons are involved in violent crimes. Gov. Dan Malloy, a strong Clinton supporter pushed strong gun control measures to enactment in the wake of the Newtown shooting. At the same time, Malloy’s popularity has taken some hits in his second term.
Another prospect for Sanders is Rhode Island, the only state of the five up for grabs on Tuesday that permits independents to vote in the party primary of their choice. Sanders has fared much better among self-identified independents that participate in the Democratic primaries than Clinton. Delaware is another small state, but its closed primary and relatively large African-American population will be a handicap for Sanders who has struggled to win over those voters from Clinton.
Rhode Island Past Primary Vote
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Hillary Clinton 108,949 58%
Barack Obama 75,316 40%
2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Mitt Romney 9,178 63%
Ron Paul 3,473 24%
Newt Gingrich 880 6%
Rick Santorum 825 6%
Delaware Past Primary Vote
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Hillary Clinton 51,124 53%
Barack Obama 40,751 42%
2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Mitt Romney 16,143 58%
Newt Gingrich 7,742 27%
Ron Paul 3,017 11%
Rick Santorum 1,690 6%
The big enchilada for Democrats is Pennsylvania with 189 pledged delegates up for grabs. Clinton won the 2008 Pennsylvania primary after Obama’s infamous gaffe disparaging voters there who were “bitter” and “cling to guns and religion” in response to the state’s struggling old industrial economy . To be sure, there were other reasons for Obama’s loss, namely Clinton’s roughly two-to-one success in western and northeastern Pennsylvania and her ability to battle Obama to draw in the Philadelphia suburbs. Sanders will need to match those metrics if he is to have any chance in the state and that won’t be easy.
Pennsylvania Past Primary Vote
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Hillary Clinton 1,275,039 55%
Barack Obama 1,061,441 45%
2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Mitt Romney 468,374 58%
Rick Santorum 149,056 18%
Ron Paul 106,148 13%
Newt Gingrich 84,537 10%
Maryland has the second largest number of Democratic pledged delegates at stake on Tuesday, 95. The primary will be dominated by Democratic voters in the Washington DC suburban counties of Montgomery and Prince George’s and Baltimore City and County. Those two regions count for roughly two-thirds of the votes cast in Democratic primaries. Large numbers of African American voters in the city of Baltimore and Prince George’s County will greater hinder Sanders’ ability to pull off an upset here.
Maryland Past Primary Vote
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Barack Obama 532,665 61%
Hillary Clinton 314,221 36%
2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Mitt Romney 122,400 49%
Rick Santorum 71,349 29%
Newt Gingrich 27,240 11%
Ron Paul 23,609 10%
On the Republican side of ledger, the five states with primaries on Tuesday have rarely been much of a factor in GOP presidential nominating contests. Usually, by the time the Republican race rolls into these states, the nomination has been decided by results from earlier states. And in the East, the Republican Party is hardly a vibrant force: one of the five governors in these states is a Republican (thanks to Larry Hogan’s remarkable upset win in 2014) and one of 10 Senators is a Republican (Pat Toomey, who won in 2010, another good GOP year). None of these states have voted for a Republican presidential candidate in a general election since 1988 when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania all backed George H.W. Bush.
What this history suggests is that none of these states have a GOP establishment that is very influential, and thus, little ability to help rally opposition to Donald Trump. In Wisconsin, Trump’s last primary setback, the GOP apparatus was much more potent and much of it lined up against the party’s frontrunner.
At one point, the East was seen as fertile territory for Ohio GOP Gov. Kasich. He was born in McKees Rocks, Pennsylvania and his more moderate stance and record in the Buckeye State should have had some appeal to Republican voters in the April 26 states. But Kasich was unable to muster significant support in GOP suburbs in the Wisconsin and New York primaries raising doubts about how much traction he’ll have in similar kinds of suburbs in the East. Cruz could pick off delegates from these states, as he’s shown an ability to do in the post-primary and post-caucus process, but the Texan seems to be more focused on winning the May 3 primary in Indiana than any of the states casting ballots this Tuesday.
Polls will close in all five states at 8:00 PM EST and none of these states have a significant absentee to worry about counting after the election day vote, so there could be some network projections very early in the evening. All, except for Rhode Island, limit participation in their primaries to just registered Democrats and Republicans. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 before the November 8, 2016 general election can vote in the Connecticut and Delaware primaries.
Party Registration for April 26 states
| State | Total | Republican | Democrat | Ind./Other |
| Connecticut | 2,129,379 | 429,301 | 776,886 | 923,192 |
| Delaware | 656,664 | 184,321 | 310,762 | 161,581 |
| Maryland | 4,081,394 | 981,791 | 2,057,102 | 751,210 |
| Pennsylvania | 8,216,624 | 3,085,649 | 4,025,831 | 1,105,162 |
| Rhode Island | 750,032 | 77,549 | 292,901 | 379,582 |
House and Senate primaries are also being conducted in Maryland and Pennsylvania. A vigorous mayoral primary in Baltimore could boost turnout in the city.
Prior Democratic Presidential Primary Turnouts
| Year | Connecticut | Delaware | Maryland | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island |
| 2012 | ---- | ---- | 326,470 | 629,483 | 8,106 |
| 2008 | 354,539 | 96,374 | 878,174 | 2,341,382 | 186,657 |
| 2004 | 130,023 | 33,291 | 481,476 | 789,882 | 35,759 |
| 2000 | 179,056 | 11,141 | 507,462 | 707,990 | 47,085 |
| 1996 | ---- | 10,740 | 293,829 | 724,069 | 8,780 |
| 1992 | 173,119 | ---- | 567,243 | 1,265,495 | 50,709 |
| 1988 | 241,395 | ---- | 531,335 | 1,507,690 | 49,029 |
| 1984 | 220,842 | ---- | 506,886 | 1,656,294 | 44,511 |
| 1980 | 210,275 | ---- | 477,090 | 1,613,551 | 38,327 |
Prior Republican Presidential Primary Turnouts
| Year | Connecticut | Delaware | Maryland | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island |
| 2012 | 59,578 | 28,592 | 248,468 | 811,706 | 14,564 |
| 2008 | 151,604 | 50,239 | 320,989 | 834,268 | 27,237 |
| 2004 | ---- | ---- | 151,943 | 861,555 | 2,535 |
| 2000 | 177,061 | 30,060 | 376,034 | 651,809 | 36,149 |
| 1996 | 130,418 | 32,773 | 254,246 | 684,204 | 15,009 |
| 1992 | 99,472 | ---- | 240,021 | 1,008,777 | 15,636 |
| 1988 | 104,171 | ---- | 200,754 | 870,549 | 16,035 |
| 1984 | ---- | ---- | 73,663 | 621,206 | 2,235 |
| 1980 | 182,284 | ---- | 167,303 | 1,241,411 | 5,335 |
To follow the results on the web, here are some useful websites:
Connecticut
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?q=525432
Delaware
http://elections.delaware.gov/index.shtml
Maryland
http://www.elections.state.md.us/
Pennsylvania
http://www.dos.pa.gov/votingelections/Pages/default.aspx#.Vx586lYrLcs
Rhode Island
http://www.elections.state.ri.us/
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will help to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
