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Presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2016

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General election in Pennsylvania
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump (R)
Electoral votes: 20
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Primary
  Date: April 26, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: April 26, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Pennsylvania
  U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State executives
Pennsylvania State Senate
Pennsylvania House of Representatives
Pennsylvania judicial elections
Pennsylvania local judicial elections
State ballot measures
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See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016 and Keystone Battleground

Pennsylvania held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Closed primaries for the Democratic and Republican parties took place in Pennsylvania on April 26, 2016. Four other states also held primary elections on April 26. Pennsylvania was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania in the general election.
  • In 2016, Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, which was 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 7.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.33 to 43.33 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.
  • Presidential primary elections in Pennsylvania took place on April 26, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary with 55.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 56.6 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an unofficial list on the Pennsylvania Department of State website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the unofficial list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania

    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☐ Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Pennsylvania, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 47.5% 2,926,441 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 48.2% 2,970,733 20
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 2.4% 146,715 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.8% 49,941 0
         Constitution Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley 0.3% 21,572 0
         - Other/Write-in 0.8% 50,076 0
    Total Votes 6,165,478 20
    Election results via: Federal Election Commission

    Recount

    Green Party nominee Jill Stein filed requests for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in late November 2016. Read more about the recount efforts below.

    Wisconsin

    On November 25, 2016, the Wisconsin state election board accepted a request from Stein for a statewide recount, though the Wisconsin Elections Commission rejected her request for a recount by hand.[1] Stein told CNN that "this was a hacked election," adding in a statement, "These concerns need to be investigated before the 2016 presidential election is certified."[2][3]

    Wisconsin concluded its recount on December 12, 2016, and found that Trump defeated Clinton by more than 22,000 votes.[4]

    Michigan

    Stein filed an official request for a recount in Michigan on November 30, 2016, which was the deadline in Michigan for requesting a recount. In a statement, Stein said, "The people of Michigan and all Americans deserve a voting system we can trust. After a presidential election tarnished by the use of outdated and unreliable machines and accusations of irregularities, people of all political persuasions are asking if our election results are reliable. We need to verify the vote in this and every election so that Americans can be sure we have a fair, secure and accurate voting system." The chair of the Michigan state GOP, Ronna Romney McDaniel, responded to news of the recount critically, saying, "The filing by Jill Stein is a reckless attempt to undermine the will of Michigan voters. Jill Stein made her 1% temper tantrum official and will waste millions of Michigan taxpayers’ dollars, and has acknowledged that the recount will not change anything regarding the Presidential election."[5]

    US District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered the Michigan Board of Elections to stop the recount on December 8, 2016. Goldsmith stated that Stein had "not presented evidence of tampering or mistake" but had instead presented "speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery." He added, "A recount as an audit of the election has never been endorsed by any court." On Twitter, Stein responded by saying, "It's disheartening a judge gave in to Donald Trump and Michigan Republicans, and lifted his emergency order that had kicked off #RecountMI."[6]

    Pennsylvania

    Stein filed a petition for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28, 2016.[7] On December 12, 2016, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond halted the recount in Pennsylvania, saying, "there is no credible evidence that any 'hack' occurred, and compelling evidence that Pennsylvania's voting system was not in any way compromised."[4]

    Clinton campaign reaction

    On November 26, 2016, Hillary Clinton's campaign announced its intentions to participate in the recount process. Marc Elias, the Clinton campaign's general counsel, said in a statement, "Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well."[8]

    On November 22, 2016, it was reported that a group of computer scientists and election lawyers were encouraging Clinton to request a recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on the grounds that the results in those states "may have been manipulated or hacked."[9]

    Trump campaign reaction

    Donald Trump criticized the recount effort. On Twitter, he said, "Hillary Clinton conceded the election when she called me just prior to the victory speech and after the results were in. Nothing will change." In an official statement, he added, "This is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded, and the results of this election should be respected instead of being challenged and abused, which is exactly what Jill Stein is doing."[10]

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[11] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Pennsylvania's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Pennsylvania, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Pennsylvania participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Pennsylvania voted for the winning presidential candidate 76.67 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[12]
    • Pennsylvania voted Democratic 43.33 percent of the time and Republican 53.33 percent of the time.

    Third party votes

    In 1912, Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.[13]

    Presidential election voting record in Pennsylvania, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Virgil Goode, Ross Anderson, Roseanne Barr, Thomas Hoefling, Jill Ann Reed, Andre Barnett, Stewart Alexander, and Chuck Baldwin.[15]

    2008

    Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ron Paul, Chuck Baldwin, Cynthia McKinney, Alan Keyes, Brian Moore, Roger Calero, Frank McEnulty, Gloria LaRiva, and Charles Jay.[16]

    Polling

    Pennsylvania polls (2016)

    Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

    Ballotpedia Battleground Poll

    See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

    Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven battleground states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preference. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson. In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states. See the table below for the battleground poll results from Pennsylvania.

    Although John Kasich won only 19.4 percent of the Pennsylvania Republican primary vote on April 26, 2016, he was the only Republican in the study who polled above Hillary Clinton in the general election.

    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Pennsylvania): Head-to-head
    Poll Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump (June 10-22, 2016) 49% 35% 17% +/- 4.0 601
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich (June 10-22, 2016) 41% 43% 15% +/- 4.0 601
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan (June 10-22, 2016) 44% 41% 15% +/- 4.0 601
    Ballotpedia's Battleground Polling (Pennsylvania): Three-way
    Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 46% 32% 13% 9% +/- 4.0 601
    Hillary Clinton John Kasich Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Kasich vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 42% 38% 10% 11% +/- 4.0 601
    Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan Gary Johnson Neither or refused Margin of error Sample size
    Clinton vs. Ryan vs. Johnson (June 10-22, 2016) 43% 38% 9% 11% +/- 4.0 601

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Pennsylvania electors

    In 2016, Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes. Pennsylvania's share of electoral votes represented 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 7.4 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republicans electors in Pennsylvania were chosen by the presidential nominees of their respective political parties.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[17][18]

    Pennsylvania was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    State campaign staff

    Prior to the November 8, 2016, election, each campaign put in place paid staff, volunteers, and political operatives in each state in efforts to gain votes and influence voter turnout on election day. The following details some of the key staff for each campaign in Pennsylvania.

    Hillary Clinton

    For Hillary Clinton's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Marlon Marshall, the campaign's director of state campaigns and political engagement. The key staff in Pennsylvania consisted of:

    Hillary for America 2016 Logo.png

    Corey Dukes, State director: Dukes was Clinton's state director in Pennsylvania during her successful 2016 primary election. He was a longtime aide to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), having worked on her campaigns in 2006 and 2012 and as part of her staff in the Senate. Dukes also managed Allyson Schwartz's unsuccessful campaign for governor of Pennsylvania in 2014.
    Erin Wilson, Deputy state director: Wilson joined the Clinton campaign after spending two years as the Northeast political director for the Democratic National Committee. Prior to her work with the DNC, Wilson spent eight years in various positions with Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-Pa.).[19]

    Donald Trump

    For Donald Trump's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Michael Biundo, the campaign's senior political advisor. The key staff in Pennsylvania consisted of:

    Trump-Pence 2016.svg

    Ted Christian, State director: Earlier in the 2016 election, Christian served as the deputy state director for Trump's Pennsylvania campaign and oversaw the state's delegate races for the campaign. He was the Pennsylvania state director for John McCain's (R) 2008 presidential campaign. Christian runs the Philadelphia office for Duane Morris Government Strategies.
    David Urban, Senior advisor: Urban joined the Trump campaign as a volunteer in April 2016 and was announced as part of the general election staff in Pennsylvania in July 2016.[20] He is a lobbyist with American Continental Group and a former chief of staff to the late Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).[21]


    Down ballot races

    See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Pennsylvania covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats: Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • Poll leader: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Closed Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Mixed
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 17

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. A total of 189 pledged delegates were at stake. Polling from late-March and April showed Clinton with a lead over Bernie Sanders ranging from six to 22 points.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the Pennsylvania Republican primary election, winning all 17 at-large delegates. Pennsylvania's 54 district-level delegates were elected directly by the voters in the state's 18 congressional districts (three in each district) as uncommitted delegates. "Uncommitted" means that these delegates were not bound to support the candidate who won their congressional district. An additional quirk of the Pennsylvania Republican primary was that candidates for district-level delegate slots were not required to disclose which candidate they support. A Pittsburgh-based media outlet called TribLive surveyed the delegate candidates in early April.[22] The results are listed below. In addition, the Ted Cruz campaign published a list of delegates whom it asked its supporters to vote for in the primary.[23] That list is also featured below.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 55.6% 935,107 106
    Bernie Sanders 43.5% 731,881 83
    Roque De La Fuente 0.9% 14,439 0
    Totals 1,681,427 189
    Source: The New York Times and Pennsylvania Secretary of State

    Republicans

    Pennsylvania Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 56.6% 902,593 17
    Ted Cruz 21.7% 345,506 0
    John Kasich 19.4% 310,003 0
    Jeb Bush 0.6% 9,577 0
    Marco Rubio 0.7% 11,954 0
    Ben Carson 0.9% 14,842 0
    Totals 1,594,475 17
    Source: The New York Times and Pennsylvania Secretary of State

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[24]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Bernie Sanders


    Willie L. Wilson

    Republicans[24]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson


    Ted Cruz
    John Kasich


    Marco Rubio
    Donald Trump

    Delegate

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Pennsylvania had 208 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 189 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[25][26]

    Nineteen party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[25][27]

    Pennsylvania superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Pennsylvania, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Pennsylvania had 71 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 54 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's 18 congressional districts). According to the Republican National Committee, Pennsylvania's district delegates were "elected on the primary ballot as officially unbound," meaning that these delegates were not required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[28][29]

    Of the remaining 17 delegates, 14 served at large. Pennsylvania's at-large delegates were allocated on a winner-take-all basis; the plurality winner of the state's primary received all of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates were required to pledge their support to the winner of the state's primary.[28][29]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Pennsylvania, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Pennsylvania, 2016

    Known political allegiances of Republican delegate candidates

    Pennsylvania's 54 district-level delegates were elected directly by voters in the state's 18 congressional districts. They were elected as unbound delegates and were not required to disclose which candidate they support.

    A Pittsburgh-based media outlet called TribLive surveyed all 162 delegate-candidates in early April to find out which candidate they intend to support at the convention. The survey received 132 responses.[22] The results are listed below. In addition, the Ted Cruz campaign published a list of delegates whom it asked its supporters to vote for in the primary.[23] That list is also featured below.

    TribLive delegate survey

    Note: The text of the list below is reprinted verbatim from the original source.

    1st District

    • Seth W. Kaufer: Uncommitted.
    • Christopher M. Vogler: Strongly leaning toward voting for whoever wins his district.

    2nd District

    • Aldrick Gessa: Cruz
    • Elizabeth Havey: Whoever wins her district, “on the first (convention) ballot at the very least.”
    • Calvin Tucker: Uncommitted.

    3rd District

    • Louis J. Aliota: Leaning Trump.
    • Michael T. Baker: Uncommitted.
    • Brian L. Ellis: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Philip S. English: Uncommitted. Will “consult the results in my district” and be “strongly inclined to support the candidate most capable of winning the November election.”
    • Gale Measel: Whoever wins his district. Beyond that, describes himself as an “ABC” delegate candidate — “anyone but Clinton.”
    • Michele Mustello: Uncommitted. Thinks “It is important the Pennsylvania delegation cast our votes together.”
    • Carol Lynne Ryan: Whoever wins her district.*
    • Daniel P. Vete: Uncommitted.
    • Robert J. Yates: Undecided, but “strongly impressed by Kasich.” Yates thinks his job is to “help determine who would be the best Republican to run and win the race” in November.

    4th District

    • Timothy Barker: Whoever wins his district.
    • Amy Sarah Brennan: Undecided.
    • Joseph Scott Burford: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Charlie Gerow: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Betsy Hower: Whoever wins her district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Matthew R. Jansen: Trump.
    • Andrew Joseph Ritter Jr.: Whoever wins his district.
    • William Greg Rothman: Whoever wins his district.
    • Joseph A. Sacco: Trump.
    • Stanley E. Saylor: Rubio, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Marc Anthony Scaringi: Trump, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Alexander V. Shorb: Whoever wins his district.

    5th District

    • Richard J. Chura Jr: Cruz, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Joyce C. Haas: Whoever wins her district.
    • Ash Khare: Whoever wins his district.
    • James Feuer Klein: Trump, on at least the first ballot.
    • Barry K. Kroeker: Cruz, on at least the first ballot.
    • C. Arnold McClure: Whoever wins his district.
    • Scott W. Schreffler: Whoever wins his district.
    • Shelia Fitzgerald Sterrett: Whoever wins her district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Lyle Stewart: Whoever wins her district, on at least the first ballot.

    6th District

    • Wayne Buckwalter: Trump, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Ryan A. Costello: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • W. Douglas Hager: Whoever wins his district.
    • Michelle Haris Kichline: Whoever wins her district.
    • Vicki Lightcap: Whoever wins her district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Larry E. Stohler: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Mary Elizabeth Wert: Cruz.
    • Robert A. Wert: Cruz.

    7th District

    • Joan M. Miller: Whoever wins her district.
    • Michael V. Puppio: Whoever wins his district.
    • Jan C. Ting: Uncommitted. Will “take into consideration the outcome of the statewide presidential primary, the primary outcome in my congressional district and the consensus within the delegation as to how we should proceed in the best interests of the party.”
    • Ralph E. Wike III: Trump.

    8th District

    • Barry Robert Casper: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Deborah A. Evangelou: Cruz.
    • Robert G. Loughery: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Sean M. Shute: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.

    9th District

    • Cody Raymond Knotts: Trump.
    • Lois M. Kaneshiki: Cruz.
    • Joseph Lamantia: Whoever wins his district.
    • Clayton David Show: Cruz.
    • Williams F. Shuster: Whoever wins his district.
    • August C. Stickel IV: Whoever wins his district.
    • Debra D. Taylor: Undecided. Leaning toward either Trump or whoever wins her district.
    • Robert L. Thomas: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Judith F. Ward: Whoever wins her district.

    10th District

    • Ryan Alan Belz: Trump.
    • Charles John Brewer: Whoever wins his district.
    • Krystle R. Bristol: Whoever wins her district.
    • Mark J. Harris: Whoever wins his district.
    • Jonathan Corona Hayes: Uncommitted.
    • Mark F. Holt: Whoever wins his district.
    • David Alexander Huffman Jr.: Whoever wins his district.
    • Patricia L. Saylor: Whoever wins her district.
    • Mario Michael Scavello: Whoever wins his district.
    • John Wells: Trump.

    11th District

    • Richard P. Adams: Leaning Cruz. Would “definitely make a decision independent of the congressional district vote.”
    • Philip G. Bear: Cruz on the first ballot. “On subsequent ballots, I would deem myself to be a free agent and would support that candidate, whom, at that point, I would deem the most electable.”
    • Carol H. Drewniak: Cruz.
    • Susan C. Helm: Whoever wins her district.
    • Lowman S. Henry: Cruz.
    • Marlene Faye Loose: Trump.
    • David J. McElwee: Trump.
    • Richard Morelli: Whoever wins his district.
    • J. Daniel Mosel: Cruz.
    • Thomas James Pyne: Cruz. Kasich would be his second choice.
    • Andrew Shecktor: A Trump supporter, he said he'd “likely have to support the popular winning candidate if Trump lost.”
    • Rebecca Warren: Whoever wins her district.

    12th District

    • Lawrence Borland: Cruz.
    • Jill N. Cooper: Whoever wins her district.
    • Christopher H. Fromme: Trump.
    • Robert C. Howard: Whoever wins his district.
    • Bruce Keeler: Cruz.
    • Gabriel C. Keller: Trump.
    • David J. Majernik: Whoever wins his district.
    • Michael P. McMullen: Whoever wins his district.
    • Samuel G. Miclot: Whoever wins his district.
    • Monica Morrill: Undecided.
    • Joseph Matthew Sernell: Trump.
    • George “Jeff” Steigerwalt: Cruz.
    • Louis Roger Valente: Whoever wins his district.

    13th District

    • Alan Apt: Whoever wins the state primary.
    • Lauren Elizabeth Casper: Uncommitted.
    • Thomas Jay Ellis: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Pamela Levy: Whoever wins her district.
    • Michael McMonagle: Cruz.
    • Shannon Meadors Oscar: Whoever wins her district.

    14th District

    • Michael DeVanney: Uncommitted.
    • Cameron S. Linton: Uncommitted. “I want to see the results of the district and the statewide results before I begin to think about how I would vote in Cleveland.”

    15th District

    • Dean N. Browning: Cruz.
    • Malcolm C. Cole II: Cruz.
    • William L. Heydt: Whoever wins his district, on at least the first convention ballot. “I will use my discretion on future ballots, if any.”
    • Mark Hoffman: Cruz.
    • Patrick J. Kerwin: Declined to comment.
    • Christian Y. Leinbach: Cruz.
    • John K. Reber Sr.: Trump.
    • Robert E. Smith Jr.: Undecided.
    • Scott C. Uehlinger: Whoever wins his district.

    16th District

    • Douglas W. Brubaker: Cruz, on at least the first convention ballot.
    • Thomas Vincent Chiomento III: Whoever wins his district.
    • Terry R. Christopher: Whoever wins his district.
    • David M. Dumeyer: Whoever wins his district.
    • Marcus James Lemon: Trump.

    17th District

    • Robert E. Ames: Whoever wins his district.
    • George Paul Blauer: Trump.
    • Ronald L. Boltz: Cruz.
    • Carolyn L. Bonkoski: Trump.
    • Mary Beth Dougherty: Uncommitted.
    • Gloria Lee Snover: Whoever wins her district, on at least the first convention ballot. She favors Trump on subsequent ballots.
    • Teresa Lynette Villano: Trump.

    18th District

    • Scott E. Avolio: Whoever wins his district.
    • Justin DePlato: Trump.
    • Charles T. Konkus: Whoever wins his district.
    • Sue Ann Means: Cruz, on at least the first ballot.
    • James R. Means Jr.: Cruz, on at least the first ballot.
    • John Thomas Petrarca: Whoever wins his district.
    • Albert Ernest Quaye III: Whoever wins his district.
    • Mary Jo Silvis: Whoever wins her district.

    Cruz delegate list

    1st District

    • No candidate listed.

    2nd District

    • Aldridk Gessa

    3rd District

    • No candidate listed.

    4th District

    • Marilyn S Gillispie

    5th District

    • Richard J. Chura Jr.
    • Barry K. Kroeker
    • Lyle Stewart

    6th District

    • Mary Elizabeth Wert
    • Robert A Wert

    7th District

    • No candidate listed.

    8th District

    • Deborah A Evangelou

    9th District

    • Lois M Kaneshiki
    • Clayton David Show

    10th District

    • Elizabeth Greenaway

    11th District

    • Carol H Drewniak
    • Jeffrey T. Haste
    • Lowman S. Henry
    • J. Daniel Mosel
    • Thomas James Pyne

    12th District

    • Lawrence M. Borland
    • Bruce Keeler
    • George F. Steigerwalt

    13th District

    • Michael J. McMonagle

    14th District

    • No candidate listed.

    15th District

    • Dean N. Browning
    • Malcolm C. Cole II
    • Mark S. Hoffman
    • Christian Y. Leinbach

    16th District

    • Douglas W. Brubaker

    17th District

    • Ronald L. Boltz

    18th District

    • James R. Means Jr.
    • Sue Ann Means

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Pennsylvania)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Fox 29/Opinion Savvy
    April 22-24, 2016    		52%41%7%+/-3.2942
    Public Policy Polling
    April 22-24, 2016    		51%41%8%+/-3.6728
    Harper Polling
    April 21-23, 2016    		61%33%6%+/-3.9641
    CBS News/YouGov
    April 20-22, 2016    		51%43%6%+/-6.7831
    NBC/WSJ/Marist
    April 18-20, 2016    		55%40%5%+/-3.6734
    Monmouth
    April 17-19, 2016    		52%39%9%+/-5.6302
    Franklin & Marshall
    April 11-18, 2016    		58%31%11%+/-5.3510
    Fox News
    April 4-7, 2016    		49%38%13%+/-3.5805
    Quinnipiac University
    March 30-April 4, 2016    		50%44%6%+/-4.3514
    Harper Polling
    April 2-3, 2016    		55%33%12%+/-4603
    Franklin & Marshall
    March 14-20, 2016    		53%28%19%+/-4.7408
    Harper Polling
    March 1-2, 2016    		57%27%16%+/-5.26347
    Franklin and Marshall College
    February 13-21, 2016    		48%27%25%+/-N/A486
    Franklin and Marshall College
    January 18-21, 2016    		46%29%25%+/-N/A361
    Franklin and Marshall College
    October 19-25, 2015    		52%18%29%+/-3.9303
    Public Policy Polling
    October 8-11, 2015    		40%22%38%+/-4.8416
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Pennsylvania)
    Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzJohn KasichMarco RubioBen CarsonUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Fox 29/Opinion Savvy
    April 22-24, 2016    		48%28%19%0%0%5%+/-31,050
    Public Policy Polling
    April 22-24, 2016    		51%25%22%0%0%2%+/-3.4826
    CBS News/YouGov
    April 20-22, 2016    		49%26%22%0%0%3%+/-4.6934
    NBC/WSJ/Marist
    April 18-20, 2016    		45%27%24%0%0%4%+/-4.1571
    Franklin & Marshall
    April 11-18, 2016    		40%26%24%0%0%10%+/-4.9549
    CBS News/YouGov
    April 13-15, 2016    		46%26%23%0%0%5%+/-4.8837
    Monmouth
    April 10-12, 2016    		44%28%23%0%0%5%+/-5.6303
    Morning Call
    April 7-12, 2016    		41%23%26%0%0%10%+/-5.5422
    Fox News
    April 4-7, 2016    		48%20%22%0%0%10%+/-3.5802
    Morning Call/Muhlenberg College
    April 1-6, 2016    		37%29%28%0%0%6%+/-6360
    Quinnipiac University
    March 30-April 4, 2016    		39%30%24%0%0%7%+/-4.1578
    CBS News/YouGov
    March 29-April 1, 2016    		47%29%22%0%0%2%+/-5729
    Franklin & Marshall
    March 14-20, 2016    		33%20%30%0%0%17%+/-5.4312
    Harper Polling
    March 1-2, 2016    		36%17%10%19%11%7%+/-5.22353
    Franklin and Marshall College
    February 13-21, 2016    		22%12%15%16%6%29%+/-N/A371
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Presidential voting history

    Pennsylvania presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 14 Democratic wins
    • 17 Republican wins
    • 1 other win
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party R R R P[30] R R R R R D D D R R R D D D R D R R R D D D D D D R D R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Pennsylvania
     PennsylvaniaU.S.
    Total population:12,791,904316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):44,7433,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:81.6%73.6%
    Black/African American:11%12.6%
    Asian:3.1%5.1%
    Native American:0.2%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.1%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:89.2%86.7%
    College graduation rate:28.6%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$53,599$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:15.9%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Pennsylvania

    Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic candidate in five out of the seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, three are located in Pennsylvania, accounting for 1.46 percent of the total pivot counties.[31]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Pennsylvania had one Retained Pivot County and two Boomerang Pivot Counties, accounting for 0.55 and 8.00 percent of all Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, respectively.

    More Pennsylvania coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Journal Sentinel, "Wisconsin rejects hand recount mandate; Stein to sue," November 28, 2016
    2. ↑ Reuters, "Wisconsin agrees to statewide recount in presidential race," November 25, 2016
    3. ↑ The Daily Beast, "Jill Stein Raises Enough for Wisconsin Recount," November 24, 2016
    4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 ABC News, "Trump's Victory in Wisconsin Affirmed Following Recount," December 12, 2016
    5. ↑ The Hill, "Jill Stein files for recount in Michigan," November 30, 2016
    6. ↑ CNN, "Michigan recount halted," December 8, 2016
    7. ↑ PennLive, "Jill Stein files petition seeking Pennsylvania presidential election recount," November 28, 2016
    8. ↑ Medium, "Listening and Responding To Calls for an Audit and Recount," November 26, 2016
    9. ↑ New York Magazine, "Experts Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results in 3 Swing States," November 22, 2016
    10. ↑ CNBC, "Donald Trump blasts Jill Stein 'scam' Wisconsin recount, issues call to accept results," November 27, 2016
    11. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    12. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    13. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
    14. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    15. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    16. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
    17. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    18. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    19. ↑ LinkedIn, "Erin Wilson," accessed August 5, 2016
    20. ↑ Philadelphia Inquirer, "Trump naming seasoned GOP hands to Pa. field effort," July 2, 2016
    21. ↑ Politico, "Prominent GOP lobbyist joins Trump forces in Pennsylvania," April 26, 2016
    22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 TribLive, "Trib survey: Here's how most of Pennsylvania's candidates for delegate would vote," April 4, 2016
    23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 PoliticsPA, "Cruz Releases PA Delegate Slate," April 15, 2016
    24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 Pennsylvania Department of State, "2016 Presidential Election," accessed February 17, 2016
    25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    26. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    27. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    30. ↑ Progressive Party
    31. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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