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Presidential election in Minnesota, 2016

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General election in Minnesota
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton
Electoral votes: 10
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Caucuses
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Bernie Sanders
Republican Caucuses
  Date: March 1, 2016
Winner: Marco Rubio
Down ballot races in Minnesota
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Minnesota State Senate
Minnesota House of Representatives
Minnesota judicial elections
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Minnesota held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. The Democratic and Republican parties held caucuses for president on March 1, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in the general election.[1]
  • In 2016, Minnesota had 10 electoral votes, which was 1.8 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Minnesota cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 70 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Minnesota supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 63.33 to 36.67 percent. The state favored Democrats in every presidential election between between 2000 and 2016.
  • Presidential caucuses in Minnesota took place on March 1, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic caucuses with 61.2 percent of the vote. Marco Rubio won the Republican caucuses with 36.2 percent.

    • General election candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Minnesota secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not, necessarily, the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Minnesota's ballot access deadline for 2016 presidential candidates was August 29, 2016.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Minnesota

    ☐ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☑ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic-Farmer-Labor)
    ☐ Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution Party)
    ☐ Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. (Legal Marijuana Now)
    ☐ Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers Party)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Howie Hawkins (Green)
    ☐ Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (American Delta Party)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Independence)[2]
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46.4% 1,367,716 10
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44.9% 1,322,951 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.8% 112,972 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.3% 36,985 0
         Constitution Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley 0.3% 9,456 0
         Legal Marijuana Now Dan R. Vacek/Mark G. Elworth Jr. 0.4% 11,291 0
         Socialist Workers Party Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart 0.1% 1,672 0
         American Delta Party Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0% 1,431 0
         Independence Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 1.8% 53,076 0
         - Write-in votes 0.9% 27,263 0
    Total Votes 2,944,813 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    Donald Trump on the Minnesota ballot

    On August 25, 2016—four days before the state's August 29 ballot access deadline—it was reported that the Minnesota secretary of state's office had not yet received the full paperwork from the Minnesota Republican Party to get Trump's name on the general election ballot. The problem centered on the Minnesota GOP not having nominated alternate electors for the electoral college at its state convention, a procedural hurdle required by Minnesota state law. The Minnesota GOP's bylaws outline procedures for filling vacancies in its electors slate but not (specifically) for nominating alternate electors.[3] Late on August 25, however, the party's executive committee appointed alternates and finished submitting paperwork to the secretary of state's office. Shortly thereafter, a spokesperson for the secretary of state's office confirmed, "The filing is complete and the Republican ticket should be listed on our site shortly."[4]

    On September 9, 2016, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party filed a petition with the state Supreme Court seeking to remove Trump from the ballot. The statement said, "The Minnesota GOP did not elect to elect alternate presidential electors at the state convention earlier this year. After being notified that they had failed to provide the names of alternative electors by the Secretary of State’s office, Republicans decided to appoint alternate electors in a closed-door meeting rather than electing them. This is violation of state law."[5]

    On September 12, 2016, the Minnesota Supreme Court dismissed the petition and ruled in favor of the Minnesota GOP. The court stated that the Minnesota Democratic Party had waited too long to submit the petition, saying, "the petitioner that seeks a change in a candidacy designation that the Secretary of State has already certified cannot lose sight of the fact that every day of delay increases the potential prejudicial impact on election processes and the electorate's right to vote."[6]

    The last time the presidential nominee of a major political party failed to make the ballot in a state was in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson did not appear on the Alabama general election ballot.[7]

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[8] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Minnesota's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Minnesota, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Minnesota participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Minnesota voted for the winning presidential candidate 70 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[9]
    • Minnesota voted Democratic 63.33 percent of the time and Republican 36.67 percent of the time.

    Third party vote

    In 1912, Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.[10]

    Presidential election voting record in Minnesota, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 52.7% 1,546,167 10
         Republican Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 45% 1,320,225 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 1.2% 35,098 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.4% 13,023 0
         Constitutional Government Dean Morstad/Josh Franke-Hyland 0% 1,092 0
         Grassroots Jim Carlson/George McMahon 0.1% 3,149 0
         Justice Party Ross C. 'Rocky' Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez (write-in) 0.1% 1,996 0
         Socialism and Liberation Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio 0% 397 0
         Socialist Workers James Harris/Maura Deluca 0% 1,051 0
         Constitution Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer 0.1% 3,722 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0.4% 10,641 0
    Total Votes 2,936,561 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Minnesota, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden 54.1% 1,573,354 10
         Republican John McCain/Sarah Palin 43.8% 1,275,409 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 1% 30,152 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 9,174 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.2% 5,174 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.2% 6,787 0
         Socialist Workers Róger Calero/Alyson Kennedy 0% 790 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0.3% 9,529 0
    Total Votes 2,910,369 10
    Election results via: Minnesota Secretary of State

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Minnesota electors

    In 2016, Minnesota had 10 electoral votes. Minnesota's share of electoral votes represented 1.8 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 3.7 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[12][13]

    Minnesota was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    State campaign staff

    Prior to the November 8, 2016, election, each campaign put in place paid staff, volunteers, and political operatives in each state in efforts to gain votes and influence voter turnout on election day. The following details some of the key staff for each campaign in Minnesota.

    Hillary Clinton

    For Hillary Clinton's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Marlon Marshall, the campaign's director of state campaigns and political engagement. The key staff in Minnesota consisted of:

    Hillary for America 2016 Logo.png

    Mackenzie Taylor, State director: Taylor joined Clinton's campaign in June 2016 after spending two years with the Minnesota Association of Public Employees. She has extensive experience with the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota and served as the party's coordinated campaign director in 2012. Taylor has also worked on a number of local races, including those for St. Paul City Council.
    Anatole Jenkins, Organizing director: Jenkins spent much of his career working with groups related to President Barack Obama, including the nonprofit Organizing for America, Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, and Organizing for Action, the nonprofit built from the Obama campaign infrastructure. During the 2014 election cycle, he was a field director for the coordinated campaign of the Democratic Party of Nevada.[14]

    Donald Trump

    For Donald Trump's campaign, state operations nationwide were overseen by Michael Biundo, the campaign's senior political advisor. The key staff in Minnesota consisted of:

    Trump-Pence 2016.svg

    Mike Lukach, State director: Lukach joined the Trump campaign on August 1, 2016, after leaving the U.S. House campaign of Stewart Mills. Earlier in the 2016 cycle, Lukach was a consultant based in South Carolina for Scott Walker's presidential campaign. Previously, he managed three races for U.S. House, including the 2014 campaign of Stewart Mills in Minnesota.


    Down ballot races

    See also: Minnesota elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Minnesota covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Presidential caucuses

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Bernie Sanders
    • Poll leader: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Barack Obama
    • Type: Caucus
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 77
    • Total delegates at stake: 93
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Marco Rubio
    • Poll leader: Marco Rubio
    • 2012 Republican winner: Rick Santorum
    • Type: Caucus
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 38
    • Total delegates at stake: 38

    Democrats

    Bernie Sanders won the 2016 Minnesota Democratic caucuses.[15] With 86 percent of precincts reporting, Sanders won every congressional district. Although polls leading up to the caucuses favored Hillary Clinton, she was unable to secure a win in the state, repeating her loss in 2008 to Barack Obama.[16]

    Republicans

    Marco Rubio won the 2016 Minnesota Republican caucuses.[15] This victory marked Rubio's first primary election win, an important accomplishment on a night where rivals Donald Trump and Ted Cruz picked up seven states and three states, respectively.[17] Rubio's success may have been bolstered by an endorsement from Minnesota's largest newspaper, The Minneapolis Star Tribune.[18]

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Minnesota Democratic Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Hillary Clinton 38.1% 78,317 31
    Green check mark transparent.pngBernie Sanders 61.2% 125,635 46
    Martin O'Malley 0.1% 153 0
    Roque De La Fuente 0% 53 0
    Other 0.1% 213 0
    Uncommitted 0.5% 1,067 0
    Totals 205,438 77
    Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN

    Republicans

    Minnesota Republican Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Donald Trump 21.4% 24,473 8
    Green check mark transparent.pngMarco Rubio 36.2% 41,397 17
    Ted Cruz 29% 33,181 13
    John Kasich 5.7% 6,565 0
    Ben Carson 7.4% 8,422 0
    Other 0.2% 207 0
    Totals 114,245 38
    Source: Minnesota Secretary of State and CNN

    Polls

    Democratic primary

    Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (Minnesota)
    Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersMartin O'MalleyUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
    January 18-20, 2016    		59%25%1%15%+/-5.7307
    Public Policy Polling
    July 30-August 2, 2015    		50%32%4%14%+/-4.9426
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Minnesota)
    Poll Marco Rubio Ted CruzDonald TrumpBen CarsonJeb BushChris ChristieCarly FiorinaJohn KasichRand PaulRick SantorumUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
    January 18-20, 2016    		23%21%18%11%7%5%2%2%1%1%9%+/-6.5236
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Republican Party Republican Party presidential favorability polling (Minnesota)
    Poll Scott Walker Donald TrumpJeb BushBen CarsonTed CruzMike HuckabeeMarco RubioRand PaulChris ChristieJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Public Policy Polling
    July 30-August 2, 2015
    		19%18%15%11%7%6%5%5%4%3%7%+/-5.2353
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Minnesota had 93 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 77 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide caucus results.[19][20]

    Sixteen party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[19][21]

    Minnesota superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Minnesota, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Minnesota had 38 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 24 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's eight congressional districts). District-level delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 10 percent of the vote in a district in order to be eligible to receive any of that district's delegates.[22][23]

    Of the remaining 14 delegates, 11 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis; a candidate had to win at least 10 percent of the statewide vote in order to be eligible to receive any of the state's at-large delegates. If a candidate won more than 85 percent of the statewide caucus vote, he or she received all of the state's at-large and district-level delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[22][23]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Minnesota, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Minnesota, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Minnesota presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 21 Democratic wins
    • 10 Republican wins
    • 1 other win
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party R R R P[24] R R R R D D D D D R R D D D R D D D D D D D D D D D D D

    State profile

    Demographic data for Minnesota
     MinnesotaU.S.
    Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:84.8%73.6%
    Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
    Asian:4.4%5.1%
    Native American:1%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.7%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
    College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$61,492$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Minnesota

    Minnesota voted for the Democratic candidate in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, 19 are located in Minnesota, accounting for 9.22 percent of the total pivot counties.[25]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Minnesota had 15 Retained Pivot Counties and four Boomerang Pivot Counties, accounting for 8.29 and 16.00 percent of all Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, respectively.

    More Minnesota coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Politico, "Clinton wins Minnesota," November 9, 2016
    2. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    3. ↑ MN GOP, "Republican Party of Minnesota Constitution," accessed August 26, 2016
    4. ↑ Politico, "Trump temporarily missing from Minnesota ballot," August 25, 2016
    5. ↑ Politico, "Minnesota Democrats move to kick Trump off ballot," September 9, 2016
    6. ↑ Star Tribune, "Minnesota Supreme Court: Trump will be on ballots, despite DFL objections," September 12, 2016
    7. ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "1964 Presidential General Election Results - Alabama," accessed September 9, 2016
    8. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    9. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    10. ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
    11. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    12. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    13. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    14. ↑ LinkedIn, "Anatole Jenkins," accessed August 12, 2016
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Politico, " Minnesota Presidential Caucuses Results," March 1, 2016
    16. ↑ The New York Times, "Minnesota Caucus Results," accessed March 2, 2016
    17. ↑ The New York Times, "Super Tuesday Results," accessed March 2, 2016
    18. ↑ The Hill, "Minnesota's biggest newspaper backs Rubio," February 27, 2016
    19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    20. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    21. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    24. ↑ Progressive Party
    25. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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    Democratic: April 14, 2016 (CNN) • March 9, 2016 (Univision) • March 6, 2016 (CNN) • February 11, 2016 (PBS) • February 4, 2016 (MSNBC) • January 17, 2016 (NBC) • December 19, 2015 (ABC) • November 14, 2015 (CBS) • October 13, 2015 (CNN)
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    Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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