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Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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Missouri's 2nd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 31, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ann Wagner (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Missouri's 2nd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Missouri elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Incumbent Ann Wagner (R) defeated Jill Schupp (D), Martin Schulte (L), and write-in Gina Bufe (I) in the general election for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District on November 3, 2020.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Missouri’s 2nd one of its target districts and added Schupp to its Red to Blue program.[1]

Wagner was first elected in 2012. In 2016 and 2018 she was re-elected by margins of 21 and 4 percentage points, respectively. The district went to the Republican candidate in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections. In 2016, Donald Trump won Missouri's 2nd by a margin of 10 percentage points.[2]

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016.

Missouri's 2nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes portions of St. Louis, Jefferson and St. Charles counties.[3]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 49.2 45.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 49.2 51.9
Difference 0 6.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Missouri modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Any registered voter could cast an absentee ballot (subject to a notarization requirement) in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Jill Schupp, Martin Schulte, and Gina Bufe in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ann Wagner
Ann Wagner (R)
 
51.9
 
233,157
Image of Jill Schupp
Jill Schupp (D)
 
45.5
 
204,540
Image of Martin Schulte
Martin Schulte (L)
 
2.6
 
11,647
Image of Gina Bufe
Gina Bufe (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
4

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 449,348
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Jill Schupp advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jill Schupp
Jill Schupp
 
100.0
 
102,592

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 102,592
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Incumbent Ann Wagner advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ann Wagner
Ann Wagner
 
100.0
 
63,686

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 63,686
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Martin Schulte advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Martin Schulte
Martin Schulte
 
100.0
 
737

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 737
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[4] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Ann Wagner

Image of Ann Wagner

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

Biography:  Wagner graduated from the University of Missouri Business School with an emphasis in logistics. After college, she worked in the private sector, including positions at Hallmark Cards Ralston-Purina. From 1999 to 2005, Wagner was the chairwoman of the Missouri Republican Party and from 2001 to 2005 she was a co-chairwoman of the Republican National Committee.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Wagner said she was not a career politician and was in touch with her constituents as a result of her experience working in the private sector.

Wagner said she brought Missouri values to her work in Congress, which she described as including “deep respect for life and [...] fighting for the least among us.”

Wagner said she supported police officers and said she had worked with law enforcement to reduce crime.

Show sources

Sources: Ann Wagner's 2020 campaign website, "Ann Wagner - U.S. Congress," accessed September 15, 2020; Ann Wagner's 2020 campaign website, "On the Issues," accessed September 15, 2020; Facebook, "Whose Side," September 9, 2020; Ann Wagner's 2020 campaign website, "About Ann," accessed September 15, 2020; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "Wagner, Ann," accessed September 15, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 2 in 2020.

Jill Schupp

Image of Jill Schupp

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Schupp received a graduate teaching certificate from the University of Missouri - St. Louis, and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Missouri - Columbia. After college, her professional experience included working as a teacher and at an advertising agency.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Schupp described herself as a problem-solver who had experience passing bipartisan legislation.

Schupp said she was in touch with her constituents and that she would not be influenced by lobbyists or special interest groups.

Schupp said she had advocated for increased coronavirus testing in the state Senate and that she would bring what she described as a thoughtful and evidence-based approach to her coronavirus response in Congress.

Show sources

Sources: Jill Schupp's 2020 campaign website, "Jill Schupp - U.S. Congress," accessed September 15, 2020; YouTube, "98 Degrees," August 24, 2020; Jill Schupp's 2020 campaign website, "Covid-19 Response," accessed September 15, 2020; LinkedIn, "Jill Schupp," accessed September 15, 2020; Jill Schupp's 2020 campaign website, "Jill's Story," accessed September 15, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 2 in 2020.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020: General election polls
Poll Date Republican Party Wagner Democratic Party Schupp Other Margin of error Sample size Sponsor
Normington, Petts & Associates September 10-14, 2020 49% 49% 2% ±4.9 400 House Majority PAC


Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ann Wagner Republican Party $5,653,506 $6,568,320 $113,443 As of December 31, 2020
Jill Schupp Democratic Party $4,870,302 $4,849,789 $20,513 As of December 31, 2020
Martin Schulte Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gina Bufe Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Missouri's 2nd Congressional District the 158th most Republican nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[8]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticToss-upToss-upTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanToss-upToss-upLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

stl post dispatch

Noteworthy endorsements
Endorsement Wagner (R) Schupp (D)
Newspapers and editorials
The St. Louis American[13] ✔
St. Louis Post-Dispatch[14] ✔
Elected officials
Governor Mike Parson (R)[15] ✔
Individuals
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[16] ✔
Former Creve Coeur Mayor Harold Dielmann (R)[17] ✔
Former President Barack Obama (D)[18] ✔

Timeline

2020

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Ann Wagner

Supporting Wagner

"See the Good" - Wagner campaign ad, released October 22, 2020
"Sydney" - Wagner campaign ad, released October 22, 2020
"Our Dream" - Wagner campaign ad, released October 5, 2020
"Saved my Family" - Wagner campaign ad, released September 24, 2020


Opposing Schupp

"Absolutely Preposterous" - Wagner campaign ad, released September 12, 2020

Democratic Party Jill Schupp

Supporting Schupp

"We Wanna Schupp" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 26, 2020
"Turn the Page" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 22, 2020
"Mayor Dielmann" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 1, 2020
"98 Degrees" - Schupp campaign ad, released August 24, 2020
"Leader" - Schupp campaign ad, released August 11, 2020
"New Voice" - Schupp campaign ad, released August 11, 2020
"Bulletin Board 2020" - Schupp campaign ad, released August 11, 2020
"Momentum 2020" - Schupp campaign ad, released August 20, 2020


Opposing Wagner

"Former Olivette Police Chief Rick Knox Endorses Jill Schupp" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 29, 2020
"I'm Jill Schupp" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 27, 2020
"The Only Choice" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 13, 2020
"We trust Jill Schupp - NOT Ann Wagner" - Schupp campaign ad, released October 8, 2020
"Commonsense Leadership" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 23, 2020
"Plan to Deliver" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 30, 2020
"Fighting for Healthcare" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 19, 2020
"What They've Done" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 15, 2020
"Ann Wagner caught misleading voters" - Schupp campaign ad, released September 3, 2020

Satellite group ads

Opposing Schupp

"Lying" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 8, 2020

Campaign themes

See also: Campaign themes

Republican Party Ann Wagner

Wagner’s campaign website stated the following:

“

Ann has made it her mission to bring Missouri’s values to Washington and push back against an out-of-control and intrusive federal government. Ann’s upbringing instilled in her a deep respect for life and inspired her fight for the least among us. She has brought these beliefs with her to Washington, where she is fighting for Missouri families and against Washington-centered bureaucrats and big government special interests.

National Security
President Obama has not done enough to confront ISIS and as a result, American leadership has faltered on the global stage. The number one priority for Congress and the federal government must always be to ensure the safety of American families.

Ann supports a robust and effective military that is empowered to protect the American people from radical Islamic terrorists in the Middle East. She has consistently supported funding for locally-manufactured fighter jets, the Growler and Super Hornet, so that our military men and women have sufficient tools to keep us safe.

Jobs and the Economy
From a young age, Ann’s parents taught her the value of a hard day’s work and that the government ought not be in the way and on the backs of the American people. The bottom line: the federal government spends too much, taxes too much and regulates too much, and the resulting bureaucracy hurts job-creators and the middle class.

Ann has consistently worked to lower government spending, reduce our national debt and increase investment opportunities for all Americans. Ann believes that it is both immoral and reckless to leave the next generation with insurmountable debt and a stagnant economy. An improved economy and brighter future for our country is dependent on greater access to quality education for our children and grandchildren.

Illegal Immigration
In the past seven years, President Obama has ignored the rule of law, failed to secure the border and allowed illegal immigrants to cross into the United States undeterred. As a result, American families face a sluggish job market, ceaseless national security threats and uncertainty regarding the American way of life.

Ann strongly opposes this Administration’s policy of taking unconstitutional, unilateral actions on immigration. This is why Ann supported the Executive Amnesty Prevention Act, which the U.S. House of Representatives passed in 2015. Ann believes we must enforce our existing laws, secure our borders and ensure the American people that we are keeping their families safe from dangerous criminals. We are a nation of immigrants, but we are also a nation of laws. Ann believes we must follow these laws in order to protect our national security.

Reining in Government Spending
Perhaps the most pressing issue in Washington is the federal government’s out-of-control spending habits. By fighting to cut federal spending, Ann is pushing for a brighter future for Missouri families.

Ann strongly believes that we are never going to be able to tax, borrow and spend our way to economic prosperity. Ann has gone to Washington to make the tough choices to get our nation back on track. One of her top priorities in Congress has been to rein in Washington spending so that our children and grandchildren are not forced to pick up the tab for Washington’s reckless spending binge.

Fighting Sex Trafficking Sadly, sex trafficking exists in every community throughout the United States, and the St. Louis region is no exception. Ann has led the fight against sex trafficking in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a mother, she believes we have a moral obligation to stop the devastating consequences of sex trafficking, where innocent young men and women are dragged into the abyss of modern day slavery.

In 2015, Congress passed and the President signed a bill that Ann authored called the SAVE Act, which places the strongest possible penalties on the advertising of trafficked children under the age of fourteen. Every year, thousands of American children are at risk of falling victim to human trafficking, and Ann has made it one of her top priorities to fight back in defense of our sons and daughters.

Our Conservative Values
As a lifelong Missouri resident, Ann understands what it means to fight for conservative family values. Ann believes that all life is sacred and begins at conception. During her time in Congress, she has consistently led the way on pro-life issues and sought to give voice to the voiceless and protect the rights of all Missourians.

Ann has also stood for the most vulnerable members of society: our children, victims of sexual assault, the unborn and those who lack the means to defend themselves. As such, Ann strongly supports and has consistently defended our Second Amendment rights and believes that defending the constitution is a crucial responsibility for all elected officials.

Protecting Survivors of Assault
Ann believes that survivors of sexual assault deserve more protection from dangerous criminals and all levels of government must do more to protect innocent women during the difficult road to recovery.

Joining a bipartisan group of Congresswomen, Ann authored a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives calling on states to develop a sexual assault bill of rights. This resolution will protect survivors and improve law enforcement procedures during the investigation of sex crimes.

Financial Services
American families deserve better opportunities to save for their future. Ann is proud to serve on the House Financial Services Committee and has worked to make sure that critical investment tools are accessible to Americans of all income levels. When it comes to investment advice, the priorities of Missouri families should always come first.

Ann believes that low- and middle-income Americans should have access to affordable financial advice for their retirement, as well as the freedom to decide for themselves what tools best suit their families’ needs and goals. [28]

”
—Ann Wagner’s campaign website (2020)[29]


Democratic Party Jill Schupp

Schupp’s campaign website stated the following:

“

Jill knows that in order to understand what’s going on in people’s lives, our representatives must show up, reach out, and listen to what the people have to say. Her priorities for when she is in office are informed by her many years of public service spent listening to Missourians about what they value and the change they would like to see.

Access to Health Care
Jill believes that everyone should have access to quality, affordable health care. Good health allows people to take care of their families, to participate in the economy, and to lead better lives.

Too many people across Missouri and the country are struggling to get the health care they or their families need. It is unacceptable that the rising cost of health care is causing so many people to make tough choices between their health care and other necessities including food, or childcare, or housing. Jill will fight to protect and improve the Affordable Care Act, to ensure access to care for people with pre-existing conditions. As she has done in the state legislature, she will work to end surprise billing in emergency rooms. She will stand up to big pharma and work to lower the cost of prescription drugs by allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. She will work to advance the needs of Missouri families—not the needs of special interests or the insurance companies.

Improving Education
As a former teacher and school board member, Jill has seen firsthand that the education system isn’t serving all students equitably. Jill believes that your ZIP code should not determine whether you have access to a quality education, and she is committed to investing in proven methods to help our students succeed.

This includes investing upfront in our youngest citizens through early childhood education, which established research has shown to provide a tremendous return on investment for students and communities for the long term. Jill will also advocate for trauma-informed training for teachers to better support vulnerable students, higher compensation that recognizes the necessity and value of teachers, and access to more affordable options for education beyond high school.

Economic Growth
A former business executive, Jill has what it takes to help grow our economy and move Missouri forward.

In Congress, Jill will work to support small businesses, which are too often left behind when Washington looks to fix problems in the economy. She recognizes that all of these issues are interrelated—our economy is strengthened by an environment where small businesses can thrive and a workforce where all have access to quality education and job training, where everyone has access to affordable health care, and where workers’ rights are maintained. Jill will work to lower taxes for middle class families, not give away massive tax breaks to big corporations. She wants to take on corruption in Washington and build an economy that works for real people.

Workers’ Rights
Jill strongly believes that we must expand protections for workers, not limit them. She supports the right to organize and collectively bargain.

She has been a longtime ally of working families, as demonstrated by her track record here in Missouri, where she has fought right-to-work and has supported stronger labor protections. In Congress, she will continue fighting to protect workers from unfair labor practices and will work to raise the minimum wage. That’s why she is endorsed by the Missouri AFL-CIO and many other labor unions that represent workers throughout Missouri’s 2nd district.

Reproductive Rights
Jill supports the ability of all women to access safe, confidential, and affordable reproductive health care.

Jill will fight to keep the government from interfering with a woman’s right to determine when and if she would like to start or expand her family. She believes in a woman’s right to choose, guaranteed by Roe v. Wade, and will fight to protect access to reproductive health care -- including contraception and abortion.

LGBTQ+ Rights
Jill supports equal rights for all and will fight to protect the hard-fought gains we have made as a nation on LGBTQ+ equality.

She supports the Equality Act, and in Congress she will advocate for policies that prevent discrimination. In the Missouri state legislature she has co-sponsored legislation that would prohibit discrimination based on a person’s sexual orientation or gender, including in housing practices, denial of loans or financial assistance, employment, and more.

Campaign Finance Reform
Jill supports overturning Citizens United and believes this is one of the most critical steps to restoring the people’s voice in our government and elections.

She will fight to get money out of our politics and reduce the influence that special interests and their lobbyists have over our elections and representatives. Jill wants to ensure that our elected officials are accountable to the people they represent, not deep-pocketed donors, corporations, or special interests.

Climate Change
If we don’t address climate change and do it now, we are going to have irrevocable problems. This is something we can and must address, both within our nation and as part of a global community to have a safe and healthy planet for us, our kids, and for the generations to come. We need to leave this earth a little bit better than we found it.

In Congress, Jill will work to ensure we have clean water and clean air, not just for today but for future generations. She will take action to reduce our carbon emissions and hold polluters accountable. Jill believes we should reenter the Paris Climate Agreement, as the United States must take a leadership role in the global community on climate change. She supports taking pragmatic steps here at home that will help transition to a clean energy economy and create the jobs of the future.

Gun Violence Prevention
Gun violence is a public health issue in Missouri and throughout our nation. Jill supports common sense gun safety measures, like expanded background checks and closing the boyfriend loophole, to keep guns out of dangerous hands.

Jill believes in the Second Amendment. We can have common sense reforms too.

We need data in order to solve the problem of gun violence. Jill will push for the federal government to invest in research to help us better understand and address gun violence. She knows that in a country like ours, we can reduce the number of homicides and suicides with common sense, evidence-based measures that really work.

Immigration
For more than 15 years Washington has failed to enact comprehensive immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship and actually secures our borders. Jill will fight to get real reform passed into law because she believes our immigration system should be tough, smart, and fair, with enforcement focused on people who commit dangerous crimes. We deserve comprehensive immigration reform that reflects our values.

That's why Jill is opposed to the separation of children from their families at the border, as well as the detention of children in unsafe conditions. Jill supports the DREAM Act, and in Congress, she will fight to protect DACA recipients. [28]

”
—Jill Schupp’s campaign website (2020)[30]


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Missouri. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Missouri with 56.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 38.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Missouri voted Democratic 60 percent of the time and Republican 36 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Missouri voted Republican all five times.[31]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Missouri. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[32][33]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.3 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 39.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Missouri in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Missouri 2nd Congressional District Established party 0 N/A $100.00 Fixed number 3/31/2020 Source
Missouri 2nd Congressional District Unaffiliated 7,521 2% of all voters who voted for this office in the last election N/A N/A 7/28/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Cort VanOstran, Larry Kirk, and David Justus Arnold in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ann Wagner
Ann Wagner (R)
 
51.2
 
192,477
Image of Cort VanOstran
Cort VanOstran (D)
 
47.2
 
177,611
Image of Larry Kirk
Larry Kirk (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
4,229
Image of David Justus Arnold
David Justus Arnold (G)
 
0.5
 
1,740
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
9

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 376,066
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Cort VanOstran defeated Mark Osmack, Bill Haas, John Messmer, and Robert Hazel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Cort VanOstran
Cort VanOstran
 
41.7
 
45,248
Image of Mark Osmack
Mark Osmack
 
25.2
 
27,389
Image of Bill Haas
Bill Haas
 
19.5
 
21,151
Image of John Messmer
John Messmer
 
9.7
 
10,503
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Robert Hazel
 
4.0
 
4,321

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 108,612
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Incumbent Ann Wagner defeated Noga Sachs in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ann Wagner
Ann Wagner
 
89.9
 
72,173
Image of Noga Sachs
Noga Sachs
 
10.1
 
8,115

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 80,288
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

David Justus Arnold advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of David Justus Arnold
David Justus Arnold
 
100.0
 
177

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 177
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2

Larry Kirk advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Larry Kirk
Larry Kirk Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
905

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 905
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2016

See also: Missouri's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ann Wagner (R) defeated Bill Otto (D), Jim Higgins (L), and David Justus Arnold (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Wagner defeated Greg Sears in the Republican primary on August 2, 2016. Wagner won re-election in the November 8 election.[34][35][36]

U.S. House, Missouri District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Wagner Incumbent 58.5% 241,954
     Democratic Bill Otto 37.7% 155,689
     Libertarian Jim Higgins 2.8% 11,758
     Green David Arnold 0.9% 3,895
Total Votes 413,296
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. House, Missouri District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Wagner Incumbent 82.6% 77,084
Greg Sears 17.4% 16,263
Total Votes 93,347
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

2014

See also: Missouri's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Missouri held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ann Wagner (R) defeated Arthur Lieber (D) and Bill Slantz (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Missouri District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Wagner Incumbent 64.1% 148,191
     Democratic Arthur Lieber 32.6% 75,384
     Libertarian Bill Slantz 3.3% 7,542
Total Votes 231,117
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

State profile

See also: Missouri and Missouri elections, 2020
USA Missouri location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of July 24, 2020.

Presidential voting pattern

  • Missouri voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Democrats held one and Republicans held five of Missouri's 16 state executive offices. Elections for the other offices are nonpartisan.
  • Missouri's governor was Republican Mike Parson.

State legislature

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Thirteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Missouri quick stats
More Missouri coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Missouri
 MissouriU.S.
Total population:6,076,204316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):68,7423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11.5%12.6%
Asian:1.8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$48,173$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed September 15, 2020
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008," accessed September 28, 2020
  3. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  4. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  5. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ The St. Louis American, "The St. Louis American endorses Jill Schupp for Congress," October 8, 2020
  14. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Editorial: We recommend Jill Schupp for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District," September 27, 2020
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Fox 2 Now, "Gov. Parson in St. Charles supporting Wagner," October 17, 2020
  16. ↑ Jill Schupp's 2020 campaign website, "Vice President Joe Biden Endorses Jill Schupp for U.S. Congress," September 15, 2020
  17. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Former Creve Coeur mayor, a Republican, endorses Democrat challenger Schupp over Wagner," September 8, 2020
  18. ↑ Jill Schupp's 2020 campaign website, "ICYMI: President Barack Obama Endorses Jill Schupp for U.S. Congress," September 25, 2020
  19. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2020 Rating Changes," November 2, 2020
  20. ↑ Twitter, "Jacob Rubashkin on October 28, 2020," accessed October 29, 2020
  21. ↑ Twitter, "Jacob Rubashkin on October 16, 2020," accessed October 21, 2020
  22. ↑ Twitter, "Kyle Kondik on October 15, 2020," accessed October 21, 2020
  23. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Editorial: We recommend Jill Schupp for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District," September 27, 2020
  24. ↑ The Missouri Times, "Galloway, Schupp endorsed by Obama," September 25, 2020
  25. ↑ Normington, Petts & Associates, "Results MO-02," September 18, 2020
  26. ↑ Twitter, "Jill Schupp on September 15, 2020," accessed September 16, 2020
  27. ↑ The St. Louis American, "The St. Louis American endorses …," July 23, 2020
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  29. ↑ Ann Wagner’s campaign website, “On the Issues,” accessed September 16, 2020
  30. ↑ Jill Schupp’s campaign website, “Jill's Priorities for Congress,” accessed September 16, 2020
  31. ↑ 270towin.com, "Missouri," accessed June 29, 2017
  32. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  33. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  34. ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List," accessed March 30, 2016
  35. ↑ Politico, "Missouri House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  36. ↑ CNN, "Missouri House 02 Results," November 8, 2016


Missouri's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)


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