Competitiveness of United States House of Representatives primary elections, 2012

During the 2012 election, news of marquee primary battles was everywhere. The attention given to these battles, from U.S. Senate primaries to local state legislators, might make one think that close primary battles involving incumbents are commonplace.

In reality, only 13 U.S. House of Representative incumbents lost their primary bid in the 2012 primary elections for the House. Of those 13 races, eight of them constituted incumbent versus incumbent battles (due to redistricting). Therefore, in 2012, only five incumbents lost a primary election to a non-incumbent challenger.

While 393 incumbents ran for re-election in 2012, only 202 of them, or 51.40%, faced a contested primary in 2012. In other words, 192 districts held contested primaries involving incumbents. Compared to past years, 2012 was much more competitive than in previous years. According to a Ballotpedia study focused on primary competitiveness between 2004 and 2010, only 26.35% of incumbents running for re-election faced a primary in those elections. Therefore, in 2012, the number of incumbents who faced a primary almost doubled from the average challenged incumbents in the previous three elections.

Due to the redistricting that occurred between the 2010 and 2012 elections, 10 of those primary races involved incumbents running against each other. One race, CA-44, is not counted among these ten due to the top-two primary, also referred to as a blanket primary, system in California. This system allowed both of the incumbents to advance to the general election without any challengers.

Of these 193 districts, only 10 districts had a margin of victory (MOV) of 10% or less. Seven of those most competitive districts saw an incumbent lose, three of which were an incumbent vs. incumbent situation. The tightest race was Ted Yoho (FL-3) who defeated incumbent Cliff Stearns in the Republican primary. He won by a mere 875 votes, or a MOV of 1.4%. The three closest incumbent vs. incumbent races were:

• PA-12’s Democratic primary in which incumbent Mark Critz defeated fellow member Jason Altmire by a MOV of 2.4%.
• AZ-06’s Republican primary in which incumbent David Schweikert defeated fellow member Ben Quayle by a MOV of 2.96%.
• IL-16’s Republican primary in which incumbent Adam Kinzinger defeated fellow member Donald Manzullo by a MOV of 7.9%.

Outside of these most competitive races, only one non-incumbent defeated an incumbent in a primary election. In PA-17, incumbent Tim Holden lost the Democratic primary election to Matt Cartwright by a MOV of 14.3%. Seven incumbent vs. incumbent races were decided with a MOV of 10% or more.

Despite the media's focus on tight primary races, roughly half of 2012 House incumbents coasted to the general election without a primary challenger. Even if he or she faced a challenger, only 5.1% of the races were within a MOV of 10% and the percentage of upsets even lower, at 2.4%. While Gallup's polling in 2013 averages Congress' approval rating at a dismal 15%, chances are high that any given incumbent will face an easy 2014 re-election.

Most competitive incumbent primaries, 2012

Most competitive primaries involving incumbents in 2012
District	Margin of victory	Primary type	Primary winner(s)	Votes	Runner-up candidate	Votes	Total votes cast
Florida's 3rd Congressional District	1.4%	Republican	Ted Yoho	22,273	Cliff Stearns Incumbent	21,398	64,769
California's 31st Congressional District	1.84%	Blanket primary	Gary Miller (R) Incumbent & Bob Dutton (R) **	16,708 & 15,557, respectively	Pete Aguilar (D)	14,181	62,667
Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District	2.40%	Democratic	Mark Critz Incumbent	32384	Jason Altmire Incumbent	30,895	63,279
New York's 13th Congressional District	2.68%	Democratic	Charles B. Rangel Incumbent	16,916	Adriano Espaillat	15,884	38,506
Arizona's 6th Congressional District	2.96%	Republican	David Schweikert Incumbent	41,821	Ben Quayle Incumbent	39,414	81,235
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District	5.8%	Republican	Brad Wenstrup	42,482	Jean Schmidt Incumbent	37,383	87,168
Texas' 16th Congressional District	6.20%	Democratic	Beto O'Rourke	23,261	Silvestre Reyes Incumbent	20,440	46,091
Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District	7.7%	Republican	Jim Bridenstine	28,055	John Sullivan Incumbent	24,058	52,113
Illinois' 16th Congressional District	7.9%	Republican	Adam Kinzinger Incumbent	45,546	Donald Manzullo Incumbent	38,889	84,435
Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District	8.05%	Republican	Charles J. Fleischmann Incumbent	29,947	Scottie Mayfield	23,779	76,649
**Note: California uses a blanket primary system, where one primary is held with the top-two vote getters -- regardless of party -- advancing to the general election.

Least competitive incumbent primaries, 2012

In addition to the 201 primary races where the incumbent faced no challenger, many races were won by very large margins. Listed below are the least competitive primaries involving at least one challenger to the incumbent:

Least competitive primaries involving incumbents in 2012
District	Margin of victory	Primary type	Primary winner(s)	Votes	Runner-up candidate	Votes	Total votes cast
Illinois' 9th Congressional District	83.70%	Democratic	Janice Schakowsky Incumbent	48,124	Simon Ribeiro	4,270	52,394
Maryland's 8th Congressional District	84.42%	Democratic	Chris Van Hollen Incumbent	35,989	George English	3,041	39,030
Indiana's 7th Congressional District	85.03%	Democratic	André Carson Incumbent	34,782	Bob Kern	2,048	38,498
Maryland's 4th Congressional District	86.74%	Democratic	Donna Edwards Incumbent	42,815	George McDermott	2,359	46,638
Maryland's 7th Congressional District	88.27%	Democratic	Elijah Cummings Incumbent	49,625	Charles Smith	2,438	53,459

See also

• National contested primary average during the 2012 U.S. congressional elections
• U.S. House elections, 2012
• Blanket primary