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Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
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Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states. Trump's median margin of victory was 13.2 percentage points in those 181 counties, while Biden's median margin of victory was 3.4 percentage points among the 25 he won.[1][2]
This page provides demographic data for all 206 Pivot Counties including a comparison of the demographic data between Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Data from 2020, 2016, and the change between those years is included. Additional reading includes a state-by-state examination of Pivot County demographics compared to state and national averages. Full demographic data can be found here.
The highlighted information below examines several demographic comparisons. Hover over the linked text to view additional details:
Pivot Counties demographics
The tables below show demographic data for all Pivot Counties and a more detailed look at the demographics of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, in particular. Each table is split into three pages. The first page shows the demographics as of 2020, based on 2019 estimates.[3] The second page shows the 2016 demographics, based on 2015 estimates.[4] The third page shows changes from 2016 to 2020. Changes in whole numbers shown as percent changes and changes in percentages shown as a change in percentage points.
- United States: national averages.[5]
- Average: an average of demographic numbers or percentages across each of the Pivot Counties. This value is not a calculation of demographics across the populations of these counties.
- # of ... above: the number of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.
- % of ... above: the percentage of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.[6]
All data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau.[3][7]
Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties
The table below shows a comparison between the demographics of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties.
All Pivot Counties
The table below shows the demographics of the entire U.S. population compared with the demographics of all 206 Pivot Counties.
State demographics
The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Of those 34, there are 32 states with Retained Pivot Counties and 16 states with Boomerang Pivot Counties.
Iowa, with 31, has the most Retained Pivot Counties. The state with the highest percentage of Retained Pivot Counties is Maine, where the seven Retained Pivot Counties make up 43.8% of the state's total counties. Retained Pivot Counties in Maine account for 37.0% of the state's population.
Minnesota and New York have the most Boomerang Pivot Counties, both with four. The state with the highest percentage of Boomerang Pivot Counties is Delaware, where the one Boomerang Pivot County makes up 33.3% of the state's total counties and accounts for 18.6% of the state's population.
This section compares the demographics of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties to demographics in the state where the counties are located.
Use the state-specific tabs below to view additional data from each state with at least one Pivot County.
State-specific data
Overview
The tables in the tabs above detail the demographics of the 34 states with Pivot Counties. State figures for population estimates and numbers of veterans are calculated by taking the average of all counties in the state.
The number of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties is listed above each table. In instances where there is more than one such county, the data in the appropriate column is an average. The values "Z" and "0" describe a statistic between 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.
Full demographic data can be found here.
Arkansas
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
Outliers
This section lists counties that deviate furthest from the median percentage in Pivot Counties for the following demographics:
Each section includes an overview table comparing the median and average values for all Pivot Counties, Retained Pivot Counties, and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Below the overview tables, outlier counties are listed in the following manner: those in the left-hand columns have a higher percentage for each demographic and those in the right-hand columns have a lower percentage. When viewing the outliers across all Pivot Counties, red dots indicate a Retained Pivot County and blue dots indicate a Boomerang Pivot County.[8]
Population estimate by county
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 104,435 | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 31,904 | 27,036 | 158,714 |
| Average | 78,013 | 62,980 | 186,852 |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 31,904 |
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Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
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Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 27,036 |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 158,714 |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
White
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 76.3% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 91.8% | 92.1% | 89.8% |
| Average | 85.0% | 85.2% | 83.7% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 91.8% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 92.1% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 89.8% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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Black or African American
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 13.4% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| Average | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 2.3% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 2.1% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 3.2% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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Hispanic or Latino
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 18.5% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% |
| Average | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 3.8% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 3.7% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 4.7% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Non-Hispanic white
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 60.1% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 86.1% | 86.6% | 83.8% |
| Average | 79.4% | 79.6% | 78.2% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 86.1% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 86.6% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 83.8% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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Foreign-born persons
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 13.5% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% |
| Average | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 2.6% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 2.4% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 4.5% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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High school graduates
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 87.7% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 90.1% | 89.7% | 91.1% |
| Average | 88.9% | 88.5% | 91.2% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 90.1% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
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Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 89.7% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 91.1% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
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Bachelor's degree or higher
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 31.5% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 19.9% | 19.1% | 28.3% |
| Average | 21.0% | 19.9% | 28.6% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 19.9% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 19.1% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 28.3% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Median value of owner-occupied homes
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: $204,900 | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | $124,900 | $122,700 | $177,800 |
| Average | $134,148 | $128,810 | $172,792 |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: $179,950 |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: $122,700 |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: $177,800 |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Median gross rent
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: $1,023 | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | $697 | $684 | $818 |
| Average | $723 | $703 | $865 |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: $697 |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
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Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: $684 |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: $818 |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Median household income
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: $60,293 | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | $51,699 | $51,412 | $56,196 |
| Average | $51,763 | $50,893 | $58,058 |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: $51,699 |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
|
Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: $51,412 |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: $56,196 |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Persons in poverty
| Overview | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide: 10.5% | |||
| All Pivot Counties | Retained Pivot Counties | Boomerang Pivot Counties | |
| Median | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.7% |
| Average | 14.3% | 14.5% | 13.5% |
All Pivot Counties
| Median: 12.9% |
|
Above the Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Pivot Counties median
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Retained Pivot Counties
| Median: 13.0% |
|
Above the Retained Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Retained Pivot Counties median
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Boomerang Pivot Counties
| Median: 11.7% |
|
Above the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Below the Boomerang Pivot Counties median
|
Pivot Counties map
See also
- Demographic data for each Pivot County
- Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- Margins of victory analysis
- Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
- Presidential election, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 U.S. Census Burea, "QuickFacts," accessed Nov. 23, 2020
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump," accessed Nov. 23, 2020
- ↑ Averages for the United States, used in population estimates and the number of veterans, were calculated using 3,143 counties or county-level equivalents.
- ↑ Shown as a percentage of total Retained or Boomerang Counties, respectively, where applicable.
- ↑ 2020 data is based on 2019 estimates. 2016 data is based on 2015 estimates. Comparisons between geographic regions may result in errors due to methodology variations when calculating estimates.
- ↑ N/A indicates a county for which results are currently unavailable
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