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Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties' margins of victory analysis

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2020 Election Analysis:
Pivot Counties
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Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states to Biden's 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states.

The margins of victory in 113 Retained Pivot Counties became more Republican in 2020 compared to 2016. On average, these counties shifted 3.8 percentage points towards Trump. The remaining 93 Pivot Counties—68 Retained and 25 Boomerang—had more Democratic margins of victory, with an average shift of 3.4 percentage points towards Biden. Across all 206 Pivot counties, margins of victory shifted 0.5 percentage points towards Trump, on average.

Since 2008, the average margins of victory in the 206 Pivot Counties moved from 12.3 percentage points in Obama's favor to 12.0 in Trump's, a 192% shift of 24.3 percentage points in Republicans' favor. In Retained Pivot Counties, that shift increases to 26.2 percentage points. The average margins of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties was 10.2 percentage points more Republican in 2020 than in 2008.

Eleven presidential election battleground states contained at least one Retained or Boomerang Pivot County. Collectively, these states had 103 Retained Pivot Counties and 13 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties had the largest effect in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, the state's 31 Retained Pivot Counties accounted for about one-quarter of both Trump's and Biden's statewide vote. The two Boomerang Pivot Counties in New Hampshire accounted for about one-third of both candidates' statewide vote.

On this page you will find:

Overview

See also: Presidential election, 2020

Average margin changes

Since 2016

Overall, the margins of victory in 113 Retained Pivot Counties became more Republican in 2020 compared to 2016. The margins in 93 counties—68 Retained and 25 Boomerang—were more Democratic. The 113 counties where margins became more Republican saw an average change of 3.8 percentage points in that direction. The 93 counties where margins became more Democratic saw an average change of 3.4 percentage points.

Margins in Retained Pivot Counties altogether shifted 1.3 percentage points in Trump's favor, on average. In Boomerang Pivot Counties, margins shifted an average of 5.3 percentage points towards Biden.

The table below shows the average margin changes in Retained, Boomerang, and all Pivot Counties. The rows show averages based on the direction of the margin change, either more Republican or more Democratic. The bottom row shows the average change for Retained, Boomerang, and all Pivot Counties, respectively.

Average margin changes in Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties, 2016-2020
Retained Boomerang All Pivot Counties
# Avg. change # Avg. change # Avg. change
More Republican 113 R+3.8 - - 113 R+3.8
More Democratic 68 D+2.7 25 D+5.3 93 D+3.4
All 181 R+1.3 25 D+5.3 206 R+0.5

Since 2008

Of the 206 Pivot Counties, 203 had a more Republican-leaning margin of victory in 2020 compared to 2008. Three Pivot Counties—Hillsborough, N.H., Saratoga, N.Y., and Clallam, Wash.—had a more Democratic-leaning margin, meaning Biden had a larger margin of victory in these three counties than Obama did in 2008.

The table below shows the average margins of victory by Pivot County category from 2008 to 2020 and the change over that time. Overall categories, bolded in the leftmost column, are all Pivot Counties, Retained Pivot Counties, and Boomerang Pivot Counties. An additional perspective is provided for Retained Pivot Counties based on whether Trump won a larger or smaller margin of victory in 2020 compared to 2016.

All Pivot Counties

This table provides an overview of the 2020 presidential election results in the 206 Pivot Counties. The first section shows an overview of those counties following the 2020 presidential election—including the number won by Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) as well as both candidates' respective average and median margins of victory in the counties each won. The second section shows the average and median margins of victory in these 206 counties as they voted for Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008.

Overview of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election
2020 overview
Trump Biden Total
# Won 181 25 206
Average margin of victory R+14.1 D+3.3 R+12.0
Median margin of victory R+13.2 D+3.4 R+10.9
Historical overview
2016
(Trump) 		2012
(Obama) 		2008
(Obama)
Average R+11.5 D+8.2 D+12.3
Median R+9.4 D+7.3 D+11.9

Retained Pivot Counties

This table provides a comparison of the 2020 presidential election margins of victory in the 181 Retained Pivot Counties with historical margins in the same counties from 2008 to 2016. The first column shows Trump's performance in 2020 followed by his results in 2016 and Obama's in 2012 and 2008. The upper section shows the average margins of victory in terms of percentage points and the lower section shows the average in terms of total votes. The second and fourth rows show the historical averages across all 206 Pivot Counties.

Trump's margin of victory in Retained Pivot Counties increased compared to 2016 results. In previous elections, Trump overperformed in Retained Pivot Counties relative to his national averages and medians. In contrast, Obama underperformed in these counties.

Margin of victory overview in the 181 Retained Pivot Counties following the 2020 election
2020
(Trump) 		2016
(Trump) 		2012
(Obama) 		2008
(Obama)
Average margins of victory
Percentage points in
Retained Pivot Counties		 +14.1 +12.8 +8.0 +12.1
Percentage points in
all Pivot Counties		 - +11.5 +8.2 +12.3
Total votes in
Retained Pivot Counties		 2,956 3,015 1,867 2,903
Total votes in
all Pivot Counties		 - 2,824 2,747 3,692

Boomerang Pivot Counties

This table provides a comparison of the 2020 presidential election margins of victory in the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties with historical margins in the same counties from 2008 to 2016. The first column shows Biden's performance in 2020 followed by Trump's in 2016 and Obama's in 2012 and 2008. The upper section shows the average margins of victory in terms of percentage points and the lower section shows the average in terms of total votes. The second and fourth rows show the historical averages across all 206 Pivot Counties.

Overall, Biden's margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties did not exceed Obama's margins in 2008 and 2012. In previous elections, Trump underperformed in Boomerang Pivot Counties relative to his national averages and medians. In contrast, Obama overperformed in these counties.

Margin of victory overview in the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties following the 2020 election
2020
(Biden) 		2016
(Trump) 		2012
(Obama) 		2008
(Obama)
Average margins of victory
Percentage points in
Boomerang Pivot Counties		 +3.3 +2.1 +10.0 +13.5
Percentage points in
all Pivot Counties		 - +11.5 +8.2 +12.3
Total votes in
Boomerang Pivot Counties		 2,670 1,444 9,119 9,406
Total votes in
all Pivot Counties		 - 2,824 2,747 3,692

County margin analysis

Compared to his results in 2016, Trump's margin of victory in Retained Pivot Counties decreased in 68 and increased in 113. Compared to Obama's results in 2012, the last time a Democrat won in these counties, Biden's margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties decreased in 22 and increased in three: Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, Saratoga County, New York, and Clallam County, Washington.

The table below highlights the five counties with the largest swings in margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans each since 2016. Obama's margins from 2012 are included for reference.

Largest margin changes in the 206 Pivot Counties by party, 2020
County State Change from 2016 2020 margin 2016 margin 2012 margin
Largest margin changes towards Trump
Woodruff County Arkansas R+18.8 R+27.8 R+8.9 D+4.2
Robeson County North Carolina R+14.4 R+18.6 R+4.3 D+17.4
Benson County North Dakota R+9.5 R+13.9 R+4.3 D+17.01
Chickasaw County Iowa R+8.4 R+31.3 R+22.9 D+11.1
Hidalgo County New Mexico R+8.3 R+15.1 R+6.7 D+5.0
Largest margin changes towards Biden
Ziebach County South Dakota D+10.5 D+8.5 R+2.0 D+16.4
Kent County Delaware D+8.9 D+4.1 R+4.9 D+4.9
Saratoga County New York D+8.6 D+5.4 R+3.2 D+2.4
Kent County Rhode Island D+8.3 D+7.6 R+0.7 D+17.7
Warren County New York D+8.3 R+0.2 R+8.5 D+2.3

Map of margin changes

This map shows all 206 Pivot Counties based on their margin changes in 2020 compared to margins in the 2016 election. Counties Trump won by a larger margin than in 2016 are shown in red. Counties where Biden either narrowed Trump's 2016 margin or won are shown in blue. Darker shades indicate a greater change.

List of Pivot County margins

The table below shows the 2020 presidential election results in all 206 Pivot Counties. Rows shaded red indicate Retained Pivot Counties that voted for Trump in 2020 and rows shaded blue indicate Boomerang Pivot Counties that voted for Biden.

The column charts on each row show the changes in margins of victory in each county from 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Margins from 2008 are shown on the left and from 2020 on the right. A taller blue bar indicates a larger margin favoring the Democratic candidate and a taller red bar indicates a larger margin favoring the Republican.

Figures under the "Change from 2016" and "Margin" columns are shown as percentage points. The "Change from 2016" column shows the margin change in each county from 2016 to 2020 with red figures meaning Trump won the county by a larger margin in 2020 and blue figures meaning either Biden won the county or narrowed Trump's margin compared to 2016. The "Margin" column shows the margin of victory in that county in 2020.

Pivot Counties in presidential battleground states

Overview

Ballotpedia identified 13 battleground states in the 2020 presidential election. Battleground states are states that have split support for Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential election cycles. In 2020, eleven battleground states contained at least one Retained or Boomerang Pivot County. These eleven states contained 103 Retained Pivot Counties and 13 Boomerang Pivot Counties.

This section provides an analysis of the presidential election vote totals in those eleven states broken down by county category. Each states' analysis can be viewed using the tabs above.

In order to conduct this analysis, vote totals for all counties in a state were taken into consideration. This includes totals in Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties and also Reverse-Pivot Counties, which had the opposite voting pattern of Pivot Counties in 2016, voting for John McCain (R) and Mitt Romney (R) in 2008 and 2012 before voting for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Joe Biden (D) in 2020.

The remaining counties in these states were categorized as follows:

  • Solid Democratic: voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2008
  • Solid Republican: voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2008
  • Other: voted in some other pattern than those described above


County categories by presidential election voting pattern, 2008-2020
Category 2008 2012 2016 2020
Retained Pivot County Obama Obama Trump Trump
Boomerang Pivot Counties Obama Obama Trump Biden
Reverse-Pivot Counties McCain Romney Clinton Biden
Solid Democratic Counties Obama Obama Clinton Biden
Solid Republican Counties McCain Romney Trump Trump
Other Counties All other vote patterns

Florida

See also: Presidential election in Florida, 2020

In 2020, Florida had three Retained Pivot Counties, one Boomerang Pivot County, nine solid Democratic counties, 52 solid Republican counties, and two counties with other voting patterns.

Trump expanded his margin of victory statewide by 2.2 percentage points, winning the state for the second time in a row. Biden narrowed Trump's margin in all county categories—including Retained Pivot Counties—except for Solid Democratic counties where Trump narrowed Biden's margin by 7.2 percentage points compared to Clinton's margin in 2016.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Florida presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 3 46.4% 49.9% 3.7% R+3.5 48.0% 51.1% 0.9% R+3.1 +1.6 +1.2 -2.8 D+0.4
Boomerang 1 47.0% 48.1% 4.9% R+1.1 49.4% 49.2% 1.3% D+0.2 +2.5 +1.1 -3.6 D+1.3
Solid Dem. 9 60.0% 36.3% 3.6% D+23.7 57.7% 41.2% 1.0% D+16.5 -2.3 +4.9 -2.6 R+7.2
Solid Repub. 52 34.8% 61.0% 4.1% R+26.2 37.1% 61.7% 1.2% R+24.6 +2.3 +0.7 -2.9 D+1.6
Other 2 46.9% 48.4% 4.7% R+1.4 51.0% 47.5% 1.5% D+3.5 +4.0 -0.8 -3.2 D+4.9
All 67 47.4% 48.6% 4.0% R+1.2 47.8% 51.1% 1.1% R+3.4 +0.3 +2.5 -2.9 R+2.2



Retained Pivot Counties accounted for 2.1% of both Trump's and Biden's total vote in the state. The one Boomerang Pivot County—Pinellas—accounted for 4.9% of Trump's statewide total and 5.2% of Biden's. For both Trump and Biden, a majority of their new votes came from solid Republican counties at 45.6% and 46.0%, respectively.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Florida's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 67 4,504,975 4,617,886 5,297,045 5,668,731 +792,070 +1,050,845
Retained 3 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.0%
Boomerang 1 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 3.5%
Solid Dem. 9 54.6% 32.2% 51.9% 34.6% 36.6% 45.3%
Solid Repub. 52 31.3% 53.6% 33.5% 52.1% 46.0% 45.6%
Other 2 6.9% 7.0% 7.3% 6.3% 9.3% 3.6%

Georgia

See also: Presidential election in Georgia, 2020

In 2020, Georgia had five Retained Pivot Counties, three Reverse-Pivot Counties, 27 solid Democratic counties, 123 solid Republican counties , and one county with a different voting pattern.

Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 0.2 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 5.3 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump. Biden's largest margin change came in the three Reverse-Pivot Counties—Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry—which he won by 16.9 percentage points compared to 4.0 in 2016, a 12.9 point shift. Biden also expanded the margin in Solid Democratic counties and narrowed Trump's margin in Solid Republican counties. Trump expanded his margin in the state's Retained Pivot Counties and in the one county with a different voting pattern.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Georgia presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 5 47.5% 50.8% 1.7% R+3.3 46.4% 52.8% 0.8% R+6.4 -1.1 +1.9 -0.8 R+3.1
Reverse 3 49.2% 45.2% 5.5% D+4.0 57.7% 40.8% 1.4% D+16.9 +8.5 -4.4 -4.1 D+12.9
Solid Dem. 27 67.1% 28.6% 4.3% D+38.5 71.2% 27.6% 1.2% D+43.6 +4.1 -1.0 -3.2 D+5.1
Solid Repub. 123 26.5% 69.9% 3.6% R+43.3 29.8% 68.9% 1.2% R+39.1 +3.3 -0.9 -2.4 D+4.3
Other 1 50.6% 48.0% 1.4% D+2.6 48.8% 50.5% 0.7% R+1.8 -1.8 +2.5 -0.7 R+4.4
All 159 45.3% 50.4% 4.2% R+5.1 49.5% 49.3% 1.2% D+0.2 +4.1 -1.2 -3.0 D+5.3



For Biden, 40.7% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Democratic counties followed by Solid Republican counties with 32.1%. For Trump, 75.0% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Republican counties followed by Solid Democratic counties at 15.0%. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 27.0% of Biden's new votes compared to 9.2% for Trump.

Retained Pivot Counties accounted for 0.4% of Biden's vote totals and 0.5% of Trump's. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 21.7% of Biden's vote total and 15.4% of Trump's.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Georgia's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 159 1,877,963 2,089,104 2,473,633 2,461,854 +595,670 +372,750
Retained 5 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
Reverse 3 20.0% 16.5% 21.7% 15.4% 27.0% 9.2%
Solid Dem. 27 52.8% 20.2% 49.9% 19.4% 40.7% 15.0%
Solid Repub. 123 26.4% 62.5% 27.8% 64.4% 32.1% 75.0%
Other 1 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%


Iowa

See also: Presidential election in Iowa, 2020

In 2020, Iowa had 31 Retained Pivot Counties—the largest number in a battleground state—six solid Democratic counties, and 62 solid Republican counties.

Trump received 53.1% of the vote in Iowa to Biden's 44.9%. Both candidates received a larger share of the vote compared to 2016 with a 1.9 percentage point increase for Trump and a 3.2 point increase for Biden, narrowing Trump's margin by 1.2 percentage points. Votes for third party and independent candidates decreased by 5.1 percentage points, the second-largest decrease in any battleground state containing a Pivot County.

Trump expanded his margin in Retained Pivot Counties by 2.7 percentage points. Biden expanded his margin in Solid Democratic counties by 3.9 percentage points and narrowed Trump's margin in Solid Republican counties by 1.0.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Iowa presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 31 40.3% 52.9% 6.8% R+12.6 41.4% 56.7% 1.9% R+15.3 +1.1 +3.8 -4.9 R+2.7
Solid Dem. 6 52.2% 39.7% 8.1% D+12.5 57.0% 40.7% 2.3% D+16.4 +4.8 +1.0 -5.8 D+3.9
Solid Repub. 62 30.7% 63.1% 6.2% R+32.4 33.4% 64.8% 1.8% R+31.4 +2.7 +1.7 -4.5 D+1.0
All 99 41.7% 51.1% 7.1% R+9.4 44.9% 53.1% 2.0% R+8.2 +3.2 +1.9 -5.1 D+1.2



Solid Republican counties accounted for 42.6% of Trump's new votes and Solid Democratic counties accounted for 57.6% of Biden's. Retained Pivot Counties made up 26.4% of Trump's vote total and 22.8% of Biden's.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Iowa's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 99 653,669 800,983 759,061 897,672 +105,392 +96,689
Retained 31 24.4% 26.2% 22.8% 26.4% 12.8% 28.7%
Solid Dem. 6 50.1% 31.1% 51.1% 30.8% 57.6% 28.7%
Solid Repub. 62 25.5% 42.8% 26.1% 42.7% 29.6% 42.6%

Michigan

See also: Presidential election in Michigan, 2020

In 2020, Michigan had 11 Retained Pivot Counties, one Boomerang Pivot County, eight Solid Democratic counties, 61 Solid Republican counties, and one county with a different voting pattern.

Biden won Michigan by 2.8 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 3.0 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump. Biden either increased his margin or narrowed Trump's in all county categories in 2020. His largest margin change—+9.1 percentage points—came in the two counties with different voting patterns than Solid and Pivot Counties: Kent and Leelanau. Both counties voted for Obama in 2008, Romney and Trump in 2012 and 2016, and Biden in 2020. Trump's vote share decreased in these counties and increased in all other categories, his largest being in the one Boomerang Pivot County where he received 49.1% of the vote compared to 48.0% in 2016.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Michigan presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 11 41.1% 53.6% 5.3% R+12.5 44.1% 54.3% 1.5% R+10.2 +3.0 +0.7 -3.7 D+2.3
Boomerang 1 46.8% 48.0% 5.2% R+1.1 49.4% 49.1% 1.6% D+0.3 +2.5 +1.1 -3.6 D+1.4
Solid Dem. 8 58.5% 36.1% 5.3% D+22.4 62.0% 36.4% 1.6% D+25.6 +3.5 +0.3 -3.7 D+3.2
Solid Repub. 61 32.9% 60.9% 6.2% R+28.1 36.5% 61.7% 1.8% R+25.2 +3.6 +0.8 -4.4 D+2.8
Other 2 44.6% 47.7% 7.6% R+3.1 51.9% 45.8% 2.3% D+6.1 +7.3 -1.9 -5.4 D+9.1
All 83 47.0% 47.3% 5.7% R+0.2 50.6% 47.8% 1.7% D+2.8 +3.5 +0.5 -4.0 D+3.0



Solid Democratic counties accounted for 48.3% of Biden's new votes and Solid Republican counties made up 42.9% of Trump's. The state's 11 Retained Pivot Counties made up 14.3% of Biden's total in 2020 and 18.6% of Trump's. The one Boomerang Pivot County made up 1.8% and 1.9% of Biden's and Trump's respective vote totals.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Michigan's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 83 2,268,839 2,279,543 2,804,040 2,649,852 +535,201 +370,309
Retained 11 14.1% 18.4% 14.3% 18.6% 15.0% 20.3%
Boomerang 1 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.4%
Solid Dem. 8 57.0% 35.0% 55.3% 34.4% 48.3% 30.4%
Solid Repub. 61 20.5% 37.8% 21.5% 38.5% 25.8% 42.9%
Other 2 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 6.6% 9.6% 4.9%

Minnesota

See also: Presidential election in Minnesota, 2020

In 2020, Minnesota had 15 Retained Pivot Counties, four Boomerang Pivot Counties—the largest number in a battleground state—nine solid Democratic counties, and 59 solid Republican counties.

Biden received 52.4% of the vote to Trump's 45.3%, expanding the Democratic margin to 5.6 percentage points. Votes for third party and independent candidates decreased by 6.3 percentage points from 8.6% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2020, the largest decrease in any battleground state containing a Pivot County. The largest decrease for third party and independent candidates came in Boomerang Pivot Counties at -7.5 percentage points.

Biden's largest margin change came from Solid Democratic counties, where he increased the Democratic vote share by 7.0 percentage points. Trump's vote share decreased by 0.5 points, the only category of counties where he did not increase his vote share. Trump's largest gain came from Retained Pivot Counties, where he increased his share by 2.2 percentage points to Biden's 3.7 point increase.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Minnesota presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 15 39.3% 52.5% 8.2% R+13.3 43.0% 54.8% 2.2% R+11.8 +3.7 +2.2 -6.0 D+1.5
Boomerang 4 43.5% 46.4% 10.0% R+2.9 50.3% 47.1% 2.6% D+3.2 +6.8 +0.7 -7.5 D+6.1
Solid Dem. 9 57.6% 33.5% 8.9% D+24.0 64.6% 33.1% 2.3% D+31.5 +7.0 -0.5 -6.6 D+7.5
Solid Repub. 59 32.4% 59.4% 8.2% R+27.0 37.2% 60.5% 2.3% R+23.2 +4.8 +1.1 -5.9 D+3.8
All 87 46.4% 44.9% 8.6% D+1.5 52.4% 45.3% 2.3% D+7.1 +6.0 +0.4 -6.3 D+5.6



Solid Democratic counties made up 63.2% of Biden's new votes in 2020 and Solid Republican counties made up 58.7% of Trump's. The state's 15 Retained Pivot Counties made up 4.5% and 6.6% of Biden's and Trump's respective vote totals, while Boomerang Pivot Counties accounted for 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Minnesota's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 87 1,367,825 1,323,232 1,717,077 1,484,065 +349,252 +160,833
Retained 15 4.7% 6.5% 4.5% 6.6% 3.6% 7.4%
Boomerang 4 3.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6%
Solid Dem. 9 65.2% 39.3% 64.8% 38.4% 63.2% 31.3%
Solid Repub. 59 26.6% 50.5% 27.3% 51.3% 30.0% 58.7%

New Hampshire

See also: Presidential election in New Hampshire, 2020

In 2020, New Hampshire had one Retained Pivot County, two Boomerang Pivot Counties, four solid Democratic counties, one solid Republican county, and one county with a different voting pattern.

Biden received 52.7% of the vote to Trump's 45.4%, expanding the Democratic margin to 7.0 percentage points. Biden increased the Democratic margin in all county categories, the largest being a 7.8 percentage point change in the two counties with voting patterns different from Solid and Pivot Counties: Carroll and Rockingham. Both counties voted for Obama in 2008, Romney and Trump in 2012 and 2016, and Biden in 2020.

Biden increased the Democratic vote share in Boomerang Pivot Counties from 46.4% in 2016 to 52.6% in 2020, his largest such increase in the state. Trump increased his vote share in Retained Pivot Counties by 1.2 percentage points. His vote share in all other county categories decreased in 2020.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

New Hampshire presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 1 42.0% 50.9% 7.1% R+8.9 46.2% 52.1% 1.7% R+5.9 +4.2 +1.2 -5.4 D+3.0
Boomerang 2 46.4% 46.8% 6.9% R+0.4 52.6% 45.3% 2.0% D+7.3 +6.2 -1.4 -4.8 D+7.7
Solid Dem. 4 51.1% 41.8% 7.1% D+9.4 56.8% 41.2% 2.1% D+15.6 +5.6 -0.6 -5.0 D+6.2
Solid Repub. 1 38.6% 55.1% 6.3% R+16.5 43.9% 54.3% 1.8% R+10.4 +5.3 -0.8 -4.5 D+6.1
Other 2 44.1% 49.8% 6.2% R+5.7 50.2% 48.1% 1.7% D+2.0 +6.1 -1.6 -4.5 D+7.8
All 10 46.8% 46.5% 6.7% D+0.4 52.7% 45.4% 1.9% D+7.4 +5.9 -1.1 -4.8 D+7.0



The two Boomerang Pivot Counties—Hillsborough and Sullivan—made up 32.6% of Biden's new votes. Trump received his largest share of new votes—34.9%—from the two counties with different voting patterns mentioned above.

Solid Democratic counties accounted for 35.1% of Biden's total statewide vote. Trump received the largest share of his total statewide vote from the two Boomerang Pivot Counties at 31.8%.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in New Hampshire's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 10 348,526 345,790 424,921 365,654 +76,395 +19,864
Retained 1 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% 2.4% 1.4% 3.3%
Boomerang 2 31.5% 32.0% 31.7% 31.8% 32.6% 26.8%
Solid Dem. 4 36.1% 29.7% 35.1% 29.5% 30.5% 27.0%
Solid Repub. 1 3.9% 5.6% 4.0% 5.7% 4.4% 8.0%
Other 2 26.7% 30.4% 27.5% 30.6% 31.1% 34.9%

North Carolina

See also: Presidential election in North Carolina, 2020

In 2020, North Carolina had six Retained Pivot Counties, 23 solid Democratic counties, 68 solid Republican counties, and three counties with a different voting pattern.

Trump received 49.9% of the vote to Biden's 48.6%. Both candidates received a larger share of the vote compared to 2016 with a 0.1 percentage point increase for Trump and a 2.4 point increase for Biden, narrowing Trump's margin by 2.3 percentage points compared to 2016.

Trump expanded his margin in the six Retained Pivot Counties by 7.9 percentage points. Biden's vote share in those counties decreased by 3.1 percentage points.

Biden either increased his margins or narrowed Trump's in the remaining categories of counties. Biden's largest margin increase came in Solid Democratic counties where he received a 3.4 percentage point larger vote share in 2020 compared to 2016. Trump's vote share in those counties decreased by 0.5 points.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

North Carolina presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 6 46.1% 51.4% 2.5% R+5.3 43.0% 56.1% 0.9% R+13.1 -3.1 +4.7 -1.6 R+7.9
Solid Dem. 23 59.5% 36.0% 4.5% D+23.5 62.9% 35.5% 1.6% D+27.4 +3.4 -0.5 -2.9 D+3.9
Solid Repub. 68 32.0% 64.5% 3.5% R+32.6 34.0% 64.6% 1.3% R+30.6 +2.1 +0.1 -2.2 D+1.9
Other 3 47.0% 48.9% 4.1% R+2.0 49.9% 48.6% 1.5% D+1.3 +2.9 -0.4 -2.6 D+3.3
All 100 46.2% 49.8% 4.0% R+3.7 48.6% 49.9% 1.5% R+1.3 +2.4 +0.1 -2.5 D+2.3



Solid Republican counties made up 65.1% of Trump's new votes in 2020 and Solid Democratic counties made up 59.8% of Biden's. Retained Pivot Counties accounted for 2.7% of Trump's vote total compared to 2.2% for Biden.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in North Carolina's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 100 2,189,316 2,362,631 2,684,292 2,758,773 +494,976 +396,142
Retained 6 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.7% 0.5% 3.5%
Solid Dem. 23 62.3% 34.9% 61.8% 34.0% 59.8% 28.4%
Solid Repub. 68 31.5% 58.9% 32.3% 59.8% 36.1% 65.1%
Other 3 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0%

Ohio

See also: Presidential election in Ohio, 2020

In 2020, Ohio had eight Retained Pivot Counties, one Boomerang Pivot County, six Solid Democratic counties, 71 Solid Republican counties, and two counties with a different voting pattern.

Trump received 53.2% of the vote to Biden's 45.2%. Both candidates received a larger share of the vote compared to 2016 with a 1.9 percentage point increase for Trump and a 2.0 point increase for Biden, narrowing Trump's margin by 0.1 percentage points compared to 2016.

Trump's largest margin change was 3.8 percentage points in the two counties with voting patterns different from Solid and Pivot Counties: Lorain and Mahoning. Both counties voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Clinton in 2016 before flipping to Trump in 2020. Trump also expanded his margin in the six Retained Pivot Counties and Solid Republican counties by 2.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

Biden's largest margin change was 3.0 percentage points in the state's one Boomerang Pivot County: Montgomery. He also expanded his margin by 2.2 percentage points in Solid Democratic counties.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Ohio presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 8 40.6% 53.6% 5.8% R+13.1 41.4% 56.9% 1.7% R+15.6 +0.8 +3.3 -4.1 R+2.5
Boomerang 1 47.0% 47.7% 5.4% R+0.7 50.2% 47.9% 1.9% D+2.3 +3.2 +0.2 -3.5 D+3.0
Solid Dem. 6 58.6% 36.1% 5.3% D+22.5 61.5% 36.8% 1.7% D+24.7 +2.9 +0.7 -3.7 D+2.2
Solid Repub. 71 29.4% 65.0% 5.6% R+35.6 31.3% 67.0% 1.6% R+35.7 +1.9 +2.0 -3.9 R+0.1
Other 2 48.5% 46.9% 4.6% D+1.5 48.1% 50.3% 1.5% R+2.2 -0.4 +3.4 -3.1 R+3.8
All 88 43.2% 51.3% 5.4% R+8.1 45.2% 53.2% 1.7% R+8.0 +2.0 +1.9 -3.8 D+0.1



Solid Republican counties made up the largest share of Trump's new votes in 2020 at 63.1% and Solid Democratic counties accounted for 44.5% of Biden's.

Retained Pivot Counties made up 10.5% of Trump's total vote and 9.0% of Biden's. The one Boomerang Pivot County accounted for 4.1% of Trump's statewide vote and 5.0% of Biden's.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Ohio's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 88 2,394,164 2,841,005 2,679,165 3,154,834 +285,001 +313,829
Retained 8 9.2% 10.3% 9.0% 10.5% 6.9% 12.4%
Boomerang 1 5.1% 4.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.6% 1.6%
Solid Dem. 6 51.2% 26.2% 50.5% 25.7% 44.5% 16.9%
Solid Repub. 71 29.3% 54.5% 30.5% 55.4% 40.9% 63.1%
Other 2 5.2% 4.2% 5.0% 4.4% 3.2% 6.1%

Pennsylvania

See also: Presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2020

In 2020, Pennsylvania had one Retained Pivot County, two Boomerang Pivot Counties, 11 Solid Democratic counties, and 53 Solid Republican counties.

Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 1.9 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump.

Biden either increased his margin or narrowed Trump's in all county categories in 2020. His largest margin change—+5.0 percentage points—came in Luzerne County, the state's one Retained Pivot County. Biden increased his vote share in the county by 3.7 percentage points and Trump's share decreased by 1.3 points.

Trump increased his vote share in Solid Democratic and Solid Republican counties by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Pennsylvania presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 1 38.6% 57.9% 3.5% R+19.3 42.3% 56.6% 1.1% R+14.3 +3.7 -1.3 -2.4 D+5.0
Boomerang 2 46.1% 48.9% 5.0% R+2.8 49.7% 48.8% 1.6% D+0.9 +3.5 -0.1 -3.5 D+3.6
Solid Dem. 11 60.0% 35.9% 4.1% D+24.1 62.5% 36.2% 1.3% D+26.4 +2.5 +0.3 -2.8 D+2.2
Solid Repub. 53 31.6% 63.7% 4.8% R+32.1 34.2% 64.3% 1.6% R+30.1 +2.6 +0.6 -3.2 D+2.0
All 67 47.5% 48.2% 4.4% R+0.7 49.9% 48.7% 1.4% D+1.2 +2.4 +0.5 -3.0 D+1.9



Solid Democratic counties made up 57.8% of Biden's new votes and Solid Republican counties made up 59.0% of Trump's.

Biden received 1.9% of his statewide vote from the one Retained Pivot County and 4.4% from the two Boomerang Pivot Counties. Trump received 2.6% from the Retained Pivot County and 4.5% from the Boomerang Pivot Counties.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Pennsylvania's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 67 2,926,441 2,970,733 3,461,147 3,378,992 +534,706 +408,259
Retained 1 1.8% 2.6% 1.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0%
Boomerang 2 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.4% 4.6%
Solid Dem. 11 67.1% 39.5% 65.6% 38.9% 57.8% 34.4%
Solid Repub. 53 26.9% 53.4% 28.1% 54.1% 34.5% 59.0%

Texas

See also: Presidential election in Texas, 2020

In 2020, Texas had one Retained Pivot County, one Reverse-Pivot County, 18 solid Democratic counties, 223 solid Republican counties, and 11 counties that had a different voting pattern.

Trump received 52.1% of the statewide vote, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from his 2016 results. Biden received 46.5% of the statewide vote, a 3.3 point increase from Clinton's 43.2% in 2016. Overall, Biden narrowed Trump's margin by 3.4 percentage points in 2020.

Trump increased his vote share in the one Retained Pivot County by 1.3 percentage points and in Solid Democratic counties by 1.7 points. His vote share decreased in all other county categories.

Biden's vote share increased in all county categories. His largest margin change—+8.4 percentage points—came from the 11 counties with different voting patterns than Solid and Pivot Counties. Eight of these counties flipped to Trump and three flipped to Biden.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Texas presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 1 48.4% 48.9% 2.6% R+0.5 48.6% 50.2% 1.2% R+1.6 +0.2 +1.3 -1.5 R+1.1
Reverse 1 51.4% 44.8% 3.8% D+6.6 54.7% 44.1% 1.2% D+10.6 +3.3 -0.7 -2.6 D+4.0
Solid Dem. 18 59.3% 35.9% 4.8% D+23.3 61.0% 37.6% 1.5% D+23.4 +1.7 +1.6 -3.3 D+0.1
Solid Repub. 223 27.3% 68.6% 4.1% R+41.4 31.2% 67.4% 1.4% R+36.2 +3.9 -1.2 -2.7 D+5.2
Other 11 43.5% 50.9% 5.6% R+7.4 49.6% 48.6% 1.7% D+1.0 +6.1 -2.3 -3.9 D+8.4
All 254 43.2% 52.2% 4.5% R+9.0 46.5% 52.1% 1.5% R+5.6 +3.3 -0.1 -3.0 D+3.4



Solid Republican counties made up 51.4% of Trump's new votes in 2020 and Solid Democratic counties made up 46.7% of Biden's.

The one Retained Pivot County accounted for 0.4% and 0.3% of Trump's and Biden's respective vote total. Trump received 2.7% of his vote total from the one Reverse-Pivot County, which also made up 3.7% of Biden's total.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Texas' 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 254 3,877,868 4,685,047 5,259,126 5,890,347 +1,381,258 +1,205,300
Retained 1 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4%
Reverse 1 3.5% 2.5% 3.7% 2.7% 4.4% 3.4%
Solid Dem. 18 56.8% 28.5% 54.1% 29.8% 46.7% 34.7%
Solid Repub. 223 27.5% 57.3% 29.1% 56.1% 33.6% 51.4%
Other 11 11.1% 10.8% 12.2% 10.6% 15.1% 10.1%


Wisconsin

See also: Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2020

In 2020, Wisconsin had 21 Retained Pivot Counties, two Boomerang Pivot Counties, 12 Solid Democratic counties, and 37 Solid Republican counties.

Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump.

Both Biden and Trump increased their respective vote shares in every county category. Biden increased the Democratic margin in all categories apart from Retained Pivot Counties. His largest margin change was 3.4 percentage points in Solid Democratic counties. Trump increased his margin in Retained Pivot Counties by 0.8 percentage points.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Wisconsin presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020
Year # 2016 2020 Percentage point change
Clinton Trump Third party Margin Biden Trump Third party Margin Democratic Republican Third party Margin
Retained 21 42.8% 51.0% 6.1% R+8.2 44.7% 53.6% 1.7% R+8.9 +1.8 +2.6 -4.4 R+0.8
Boomerang 2 46.4% 47.8% 5.9% R+1.4 50.0% 48.4% 1.6% D+1.6 +3.6 +0.6 -4.2 D+3.0
Solid Dem. 12 62.6% 30.9% 6.5% D+31.7 66.6% 31.6% 1.8% D+35.1 +4.0 +0.7 -4.7 D+3.4
Solid Repub. 37 35.5% 58.2% 6.3% R+22.7 38.6% 59.7% 1.7% R+21.1 +3.1 +1.5 -4.6 D+1.7
All 58 46.5% 47.2% 6.3% R+0.8 49.4% 48.8% 1.7% D+0.6 +3.0 +1.6 -4.6 D+1.4



Both Biden and Trump received their largest shares of new votes from Solid Republican counties at 45.2% and 61.5%, respectively.

Retained Pivot Counties made up 14.4% of Biden's statewide vote total and 17.5% of Trump's. Boomerang Pivot Counties accounted for 1.7% of both Biden's and Trump's vote total.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Wisconsin's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections
Year # 2016 2020 New votes, 2020
Clinton Trump Biden Trump Democratic
votes		 Republican
votes
Total votes 72 1,382,536 1,405,284 1,630,866 1,610,184 +248,330 +204,900
Retained 21 14.6% 17.1% 14.4% 17.5% 13.6% 20.6%
Boomerang 2 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.9%
Solid Dem. 12 47.8% 23.2% 46.5% 22.3% 39.0% 16.0%
Solid Repub. 37 35.9% 58.0% 37.3% 58.4% 45.2% 61.5%


See also

Footnotes

v • e
Pivot Counties, 2020
Presidential election206 Pivot Counties Logo.png
Congressional elections
State legislative elections
Other
By state
2016 reports


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