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How turnout impacts presidential and congressional elections
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
October 3, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Democrats and their standard-bearer, Hillary Clinton, are optimistic about the outcome of the 2016 elections, and a key reason is the composition of the electorate. Presidential years tend to have a different make-up of voters from those who go to the polls in midterm elections—the last of which was a disaster for the Democrats. Generally, the electorate in presidential years is younger and made up of more minority voters than in the midterms. Thus, Democrats were at a disadvantage when many of those Democratic-leaning voters who turned out in greater numbers to help re-elect President Barack Obama in 2012 stayed home in 2014. Not surprisingly, Republicans won back control of the Senate that year and increased their majority in the House of Representatives.
Drawing on the television network exit poll data conducted by Edison Research, Ballotpedia has assembled a table comparing the exit poll results for different demographic groups and voting blocs in the 2014 midterm elections for the House of Representatives and the 2012 presidential and congressional elections. The table not only shows how different groups voted in those two elections but also the share of the electorate of those groups, the difference in the Democratic margins among those groups in the 2014 and 2012 congressional elections, and the strong correlation between the presidential vote and the vote for the House.
Older Americans tend to be regular voters, while many young adults are more casual voters who are drawn to the polls every four years by the excitement and news coverage of a presidential race. And once they get into the voting booth, they also cast votes for down-ballot races. As the tables below show, the electorate was younger and more Democratic in 2012, a presidential election year, than in 2014, a midterm election year. With Obama at the top of the ticket, the youth vote (ages 18-29) was a larger share of the electorate (19 percent) in 2012 than in 2014 (13 percent).
| House vote by age and Democratic margin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2012 | |||
| Age | Share of electorate | Dem margin | Share of electorate | Dem margin |
| 18-29 | 13% | +11 points | 19% | +22 points |
| 30-44 | 22% | +2 points | 26% | +5 points |
| 45-64 | 43% | -8 points | 38% | -4 points |
| 65+ | 22% | -16 points | 17% | -11 points |
Those additional younger voters who showed up at the polls in 2012—many of whom were African American or Hispanic voters—gave Democratic House candidates, in general, a larger margin of victory over GOP House candidates (22 percentage points) than young voters did in 2014 (11 percentage points). Across all the major age groups, voters tend to be more Democratic in presidential elections. That is due to the larger share of minority voters as well as other Democratic-leaning groups, like liberals and unmarried voters, who go the polls when the presidency is up. And in recent presidential elections, voters tend to vote the same party for the White House as they do for the House of Representatives. For instance, in 2012, voters who were 18-29 years old voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 60 to 37 percent. In voting for the House that year, that same age cohort favored Democratic candidates over Republicans, 60 to 38 percent.
Democrats hope that if Clinton is able to defeat the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, by a wide enough margin, a Democratic tide will extend down the ballot and pull enough Democratic Senate candidates to victory to give the party control of that chamber and boost enough of its congressional candidates to at least substantially narrow the GOP majority in the House. These would be presidential coattails or, as the legendary Brooklyn Democratic Party boss Hyman Shorenstein once described it, the “Staten Island Ferry” effect.
But with an unconventional Republican presidential nominee like Trump, some of the traditional relationships between voting blocs and political parties could be thrown off in this election. In recent elections, the two most Democratic groups as defined by their educational attainment have been those who did not have a high school diploma and those who had a post-graduate degree. Republicans did better among those who had an associate’s degree (or some college attendance) or a four-year college degree.
| Party vote by education level (2014/2012) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 House vote | 2012 Pres. vote | 2012 House vote | ||||
| Education level | Democratic | Republican | Obama | Romney | Democratic | Republican |
| No high school diploma | 54% | 44% | 64% | 35% | 62% | 35% |
| High school graduate | 45% | 53% | 51% | 48% | 52% | 46% |
| Some college/associate degree | 44% | 54% | 49% | 48% | 48% | 50% |
| College graduate (BA) | 44% | 54% | 47% | 51% | 46% | 52% |
| Postgraduate study | 53% | 45% | 55% | 42% | 55% | 43% |
In this race, Trump has shown a greater ability than traditional GOP candidates to attract high school graduates who are more likely to be blue-collar voters. At the same time, Trump has had a more difficult time winning over college graduates. In a CNN Poll conducted in early September among likely voters, Trump was favored by high school graduates by a margin of 57 to 36 percent (the rest were supporting third-party candidates Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or were undecided). But among four-year college grads, Clinton held a 48 to 35 percent advantage. And since better-educated voters are more likely to vote—in 2012 high school grads made up 21 percent of the electorate while four-year college grads comprised a much larger share, 29 percent—it’s important for Trump to find a way to win over at least some of the college grads that have been leaning toward Clinton.
Another important factor in the outcome of the elections this year is whether or not the recent trend toward party-line voting will continue or whether there will be more crossover voters than usual. In the 2012 and 2014 House elections, in general, 94 percent of self-identified Republicans told the exit poll that they voted for the GOP candidate. In 2012, 94 percent of self-identified Democrats said they voted for a Democratic House candidate, while 92 percent said they backed a Democratic candidate in 2014 (which was a relatively weak Democratic election year).
In Senate races where the contests can easily see tens of millions of dollars spent, candidates, especially incumbents, have an ability to establish their own identity separate from the top of a ticket. House candidates, especially incumbents, also have this ability, but since they have less money to spend on television advertising and their elections receive less media attention, that can be a harder task. Republican Senate incumbents in tight races like Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire—states that tilt Democratic in presidential years—will probably need some of those college-educated voters who are currently leaning toward Clinton to cast ballots for them if they’re going to hold on to their seats.
Ballotpedia will continue to track how voting blocs are aligning themselves in swing states, where this election is likely to be decided.
Full data
To view on the original spreadsheet, please click here.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
