Insiders Poll: Who won the fifth Democratic debate?
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Fighting Hillary on display in Democratic debate
February 5, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Trailing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the latest New Hampshire pre-primary polls by wide margins, Hillary Clinton fought tenaciously to maintain her claim on the Democratic presidential nomination in the only debate between the two contenders before Granite State voters go to the polls on Tuesday.
And in a survey of more than 100 Democratic and Republican Party political insiders, more than three-out-of-five Democrats said she was the "biggest winner" of the Democratic debate hosted by NBC News in Durham. While moments in the debate were bracing as both candidates fired off sharp salvoes, it’s unclear whether this face-off will turn the tide for Clinton in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary.
Among the 63 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—who responded to the survey, Clinton’s reputation as formidable debater was reaffirmed. Many of those who thought she won the encounter offered reasons related to one of her principle calling cards in the Democratic race—her experience relative to Sanders’.
“[Former] Secretary [of State] Clinton continues to demonstrate a breadth and depth of understanding of the extraordinary range of challenges a president faces that Sen. Sanders—for all his sincere passion—lacks,” said one Democratic Insider. “She is the only one ready to be President,” said another. “Bernie a great guy; so is my next door neighbor.”
But the debate also showed how tenacious she is, as when she accused Sanders and his campaign of an “artful smear” for implying that the huge speaking fees she’s earned from Wall Street and firms and other groups could influence her positions and outlook. “I think her opening about his criticism of her bordering on questioning her integrity threw him off for the opening minutes,” observed a Democratic influential. “That and the contrast on foreign policy made it her night.” Echoed another, “She survived on Wall Street and crushed him on national security.” And a third maintained, “HRC was passionate but in control: Impressive.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Almost one-in-five Democratic Insiders thought Sanders carried the night, in large part because many the debate’s topics related to a central theme of his campaign, that the party should promote and unabashedly liberal agenda and banish undue corporate influence from its ranks. “It’s the oldest rule of strategy—military or political—the side that controls the ground usually wins the battle,” declared one Democratic insider who thought Sanders prevailed in the debate. “All the fireworks were on his definitional turf: Wall Street, Goldman Sachs, speaking fees, what a true progressive is. No change in New Hampshire and Bernie will gain nationally.” Another echoed, “It was on his turf almost all night.” And third judged, “Sanders either emerged with a draw or an advantage on every segment except foreign affairs, where he was awful, and Clinton is excellent. Luckily for Sanders, relatively few Democratic voters prioritize foreign policy these days.”
And some of Sanders’ fans in the Durham debate also felt that Clinton’s aggressive-at-times demeanor was not flattering. “She is too shrill, needs more human moments,” averred one Democratic Insider. “Bernie is classy and grassroots at same time.” Another warned, “Hillary is too defensive and not likeable. Bernie is more progressive and much less establishment. Bernie wins.”
Among those Democratic Insiders who thought the debate was draw, the reviews for the show itself were mixed. “Most substantive debate so far. Both are so much better than any of the R’s,” declared one Democrat. Another said, “Nothing gained, nothing lost although [moderators Chuck] Todd and [Rachel] Maddow could have asked better questions to avoid the food fight.”
Republican Insiders (41 participated in the survey) had a different take on the Democratic face-off in Durham—roughly half awarded the debate to Sanders—but they offered critiques of the two contenders similar to those of the Democratic Insiders.
“Every time Sanders stands next to Clinton as an equal while tainting her with Wall Street silver, he appears reasonable and genuine,” said one Republican Insider who thought the Vermonter won the debate. “Wall Street is Clinton’s albatross,” maintained another.
Favoring Clinton in the debate, one GOP Insiders described her as “aggressive, confident and strong. Bernie wasn’t bad but just out-classed.” Another wondered why the Democratic Party sanctioned relatively few debates in the first place, “She’s good at this, why are they hiding her?” And a third said, “There was only one potential Commander-In-Chief on the stage; it was Hillary Clinton.”
Style also mattered to Republicans in judging the debate. “I couldn't disagree with him more at a policy level and as a result could never vote for him, but he focuses on what he believes in and doesn’t take the cheap shot,” said one Republican Insider of Sanders. “Hard not to like him.” Asked another, “What happened to Hillary being above it all? Very nasty night.”
The Republican White House hopefuls will make their case to New Hampshire voters in a debate on Saturday night: Expect similarly forceful blows to be exchanged.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Durham, N.H., MSNBC Democratic debate (February 4, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
