Republican debate preview: No time to relax
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January 13, 2016
By James A. Barnes
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia. He is the founding editor of the National Journal Political Insiders Poll and is a co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
With the next and perhaps critical round of presidential debates looming what have we learned from the Republican encounters held in 2015 and what might we expect in 2016?
The Republican face-offs are popular with the GOP faithful and perhaps even some independents. The first debate hosted last August by FOX in Columbus, Ohio, scored a Nielsen rating that put the television audience at 24 million, a record for a presidential primary face-off. The next debate on CNN came in a close second in terms of audience size, 23 million. Even the last GOP debate hosted by CNN along with the Salem Radio Network managed a viewership of 18 million, while “up against stiff competition from two of television’s most popular series,” according to Variety.
The GOP debates have consequences. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s failure to stand out in the first two GOP debates hurt his ability to gain traction in a crowded Republican field. He withdrew from the GOP contest less than a week after a tepid performance at the second GOP confab held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential on September 15. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who were relegated to the undercard debates because of their low poll ratings had to fold their tents as well. Will Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s similar demotion to the Jan. 14 undercard debate in North Charleston, S.C., on the Fox Business Network destine him to a similar fate? Fighting the negative connotation of a downgrade that he says is unfair; Paul has decided to boycott the undercard debate.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who was also relegated to the undercard in Charleston, plans to participate. Perhaps she’s confident that she can once again elevate her candidacy with an outstanding performance as she did in the first undercard debate on August 6. Her subsequent poll numbers shot up earning her a spot in the main prime-time GOP debates up until now. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who also had to climb up from the undercard ranks, has also shown poise and flashes of spontaneity in the debates that have helped keep him off the GOP casualty list.
In a sense, the debates have become the “winnowing” events of the 2016 presidential campaign. In the past, that role had been played by straw polls where a bad performance could choke off the flow of campaign contributions. But with their relatively large audiences and intense focus by the media—especially by cable television networks hosting a debate—they have drawn a lot of coverage. The presence of Donald Trump, a former reality TV star, at the center of the GOP debate stage has helped to attract interest in these encounters.
Trump has defied the conventions of political debates, insulting rivals and debate moderators alike. Normally, frontrunners like to float above the fray in debates—their main objective to exit an encounter relatively unscathed. But so far Trump’s status as the GOP frontrunner—at least in the polls—remains unshaken. As one Republican Insider put it after the Las Vegas debate, “Trump somehow transcends the debate and all the rules of politics every time.”
Looking ahead to Thursday night, it’s hard to imagine Trump moderating his brash style. And other times when topics that he’s less comfortable with are raised in the debates, like social issues, he tends to recede into the background and let other candidates have more of a say. It’s hard to imagine debate moderators taming his performance.
The Republican White House hopeful who was probably most wounded by Trump’s star turn in the debate was arguably the party’s most conventional candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Bush was a perfect punching bag for Trump: blessed by much of the GOP establishment yet clearly rusty in his first campaign in more than a dozen years, Bush was the perfect target for Trump’s barbed attacks and he hasn’t recovered from his weak showings in the early debates.
Bush desperately needs some commanding debate performances to reverse the slide in his candidacy and get likely GOP primary voters and caucus goers to take him seriously again. On the stump he’s shown a willingness to criticize Trump, but Bush has yet to demonstrate that he can best his celebrity rival in the cut and thrust of a debate. As Ballotpedia debate commentator Karlyn Bowman has noted, this is no easy task for the political scion.
Unlike Bush, those who are well prepared can effectively counterpunch in a debate and score points with political and media elites and the broader audience and Ballotpedia debate commentator David Kusnet has observed, the key is to come across as spontaneous and not scripted. Both Fiorina and Christie have had their moments in that regard.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has shown focus and discipline in the debates that have bolstered his candidacy. While not necessarily flashy, Cruz has shown more than once that he knows how to pivot off a question or a statement and drive home his own point. This is a proven debate technique that Cruz honed since his days as a champion collegiate debater.
Candidates can boost their standing with a singular debate performance but the key to making more than an effervescent impression on reporters and viewers alike may be sustained excellence. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio may have gained the most from the first round of Republican debates. He’s demonstrated an ability to weave answers to questions into a broader optimistic vision for the country, often drawing on his parents’ humble origins and background as Cuban immigrants. He also has a good grasp of public policy and many of its details. Quick on his feet, Rubio at times has been eloquent. He established that presence, if you will, in the very first debate and largely maintained it throughout the previous prime-time shows. At the same time, he has climbed up to third place in the polls behind Trump and Cruz in the race for the GOP nomination.
Those debate performances have been a factor in Rubio winning over some important backing from GOP establishment players. Two days after Rubio demonstrated his skills at the third Republican debate at the University of Colorado debate in Boulder, GOP mega-donor Paul Singer endorsed his candidacy. Rubio now faces the challenge sustaining the kind of performances that Republicans have become accustomed to him delivering.
But with the Iowa caucuses less than three weeks away, the North Charleston debate and the January 28 match in Des Moines hosted by Fox News are the last two opportunities before the first ballots are cast in the GOP nominating contest for candidates to seize the moment and build momentum for the final push in Iowa and New Hampshire eight days later. At this juncture in campaign, none of the GOP debaters can afford to sit back and relax. Expect some spirited encounters in the next two weeks.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- North Charleston, South Carolina Fox Business Republican debate (January 14, 2016)
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
