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Republicans in 2016: The party's over, but still alive
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
July 21, 2016
By Rich Cohen
Note: This is a five-part series in which Rich Cohen examines the Republican nominee, the party, the convention, and the campaign. He will write a similar series for next week's Democratic convention.
The Republican convention this week has revealed dramatic evidence that the nation’s party system is collapsing. The nomination of Donald Trump has been accompanied by an extraordinary rebuke of political discipline, starting with much of the GOP’s top brass.
Some have bluntly dissed the Trump candidacy, while staying inside the tent. Others, including Republican congressional leaders, have dismissed their nominee with faint praise. Still others—such as the party’s two living former presidents, the 2012 nominee, and prominent 2016 candidates—have not endorsed Trump, and several have ruled out the possibility. They include Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who were the final two challengers to Trump this spring.
For that matter, political outsider Trump raised doubts before the primaries that he would support the winner or disavow his own potential third-party candidacy. Now, ironically, he is relying on the Republican National Committee for fundraising and voter mobilization support that presidential nominees typically manage themselves. Before and during the convention, RNC chairman Reince Priebus was a vital ally in stifling internal party challenges to Trump.
Trump’s nomination is hardly the only evidence of party breakdown across the nation. Consider the Democratic presidential primaries: Clinton struggled to prevail over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who received overwhelming support from young voters even though he has consistently rejected the party label throughout his career as a local official and in Congress.
In Congress, customary party support eroded to the point that House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio stepped down last fall because he had lost the loyalty of many other Republican lawmakers. Many of those internal tensions remain under his successor, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
With two deeply unpopular nominees, the climax of the presidential campaign could further weaken the two parties and add to the damage that already has been inflicted.
The weaknesses of Trump and Clinton as general-election nominees have increased interest in the Libertarian and Green parties. With two former Republican governors—Gary Johnson of New Mexico and Bill Weld of Massachusetts—the Libertarian ticket is positioned to attract support from disaffected GOP leaders plus rank-and-file voters. A key test of their viability is whether either of those parties can reach the 15 percent threshold in public-opinion polls to participate in this fall’s presidential debates. Some recent polls have shown Johnson getting close.
Still, the Libertarians and the Greens have failed to build a credible grassroots infrastructure. In recent years, neither party has featured strong candidates who have come close to winning election to Congress.
In the broader picture, hand-wringing over the two-party system must be tempered by several realities:
- As ideological polarization has intensified across the political spectrum, Republican and Democrats have re-cast themselves to accommodate those interests.
- The two-party hierarchy prevails in governance across the nation—from Congress to town councils—despite its wide-ranging struggles.
- Even with the broad dissatisfaction both inside and outside the two parties, critics have not come close to offering credible and systematic alternatives.
Republicans recently have performed well in elections across the political spectrum. In Congress, they have their largest number of seats in the House of Representatives since 1928. The November election will test their control of the Senate.
More impressively, they hold 31 of the governor seats and nearly two-thirds of state legislatures across the nation. These figures show a much stronger party than, for example, when Republicans suffered debilitating internal conflicts in the 1964 and 1976 presidential elections.
Republicans also have shown notable strength in some urban areas, especially in the Sunbelt. True, more than two-thirds of the nation’s largest cities have Democratic mayors. But GOP candidates recently have won the mayor’s office in such diverse cities as Jacksonville and San Diego. As Ballotpedia has written, “Time will tell whether Republicans will have sustained success in cities where demographics would indicate that they have dwindling odds.”
The outcome of the presidential campaign surely will influence the party’s future. If Trump wins, he likely will take control of the Republican National Committee and seek to reshape party organizations across the nation. If he loses, the disarray in Cleveland may be a taste of what lies ahead.
Richard E. Cohen is a senior editor at Ballotpedia and a veteran congressional reporter. Among the books that he has written, he is chief author of The 2016 Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Republican National Committee
- Republican National Convention, 2016
