The GOP establishment needs Ted Cruz on Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
February 25, 2016
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is hardly the favorite of the Republican establishment. When former GOP Senate leader Bob Dole told The New York Times in January that “nobody likes” Cruz and “I question his allegiance to the party,” that was reflective of the disdain with which the Texan is held in by many party veterans.[1] In fairness, those feelings are mutual.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is now the beneficiary of that sentiment as he racks up endorsements from Republican elected officials who are hoping he can thwart Donald Trump’s march to the GOP presidential nomination. One of those recent endorsers, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the number two Republican in the House of Representatives, told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program that he thought the GOP contest was “down to a two-person race,” Rubio-Trump.[2]
Many establishment Republicans hope McCarthy’s views become a reality soon, but they also need Cruz to be a competitive force on Super Tuesday. That’s because five of the southern and border states that hold primaries on March 1—Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas—have a provision in their nominating rules that awards all of the state’s at-large and congressional district (CD) delegates to any candidate who wins 50 percent of the vote cast within a state or each of its CD’s, respectively. And if Cruz wasn’t a factor in the GOP race now, Trump could be poised to win over half the vote in some of these Super Tuesday states, giving him a delegate bonanza and making him much harder to stop. As Trump himself has crowed, “When others drop out, I will pick up more. Sad, but true.”
The South Carolina Republican presidential primary exit poll, the television networks’ survey of a representative sampling of voters as they leave their precinct voting stations, found that Cruz voters and Trump voters share some common demographic and attitudinal attributes. Cruz and Trump voters tended to be less well educated and earn less money, than Rubio voters in the South Carolina primary. Likewise, they viewed immigration and Republican leaders with more skepticism than Rubio supporters. Just because South Carolina Republican voters felt this way, doesn’t necessarily mean other southern GOP primary voters would share those views, but it’s a factor to consider in thinking about who would be the second choice of Cruz supporters.
And if Trump captured 50 percent of the statewide vote in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas, he’d win all 138 of the at-large convention delegates in those states. (In Arkansas he’d win at least 25 of 28 of that state’s at-large delegates.) If Trump won 50 percent of the vote in all 66 of the congressional districts in these five states, he’d collect 198 out of 198 CD delegates at stake.
Breaking the 50 percent vote threshold vote has paid big dividends in the past. For instance, in 2008, Arizona Sen. John McCain won 51 percent of the vote in the Texas GOP presidential primary. Even in a huge, varied state like Texas, that 51 percent showing translated into McCain winning 121 of the 137 GOP convention delegates at stake that year, some 88 percent. This is one way that the Republican process distinguishes itself from Democrats’ approach to allocating convention delegates: Republicans reward its presidential candidates for winning or winning big, while Democrats prefer to divide delegates among their candidates by a more strict proportional formula.
It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Trump, if he won 50 percent of the vote in these five Super Tuesday states, could win 70 percent of the delegates at stake. That amounts to 255 delegates, one-fifth of the 1,237 delegates he needs to claim the GOP nomination. Hold Trump under 50 percent in those five states and his delegate tally would shrink substantially.
That’s much more likely to happen with Cruz in the race. Many in the GOP establishment hope their nominating contest eventually becomes a two-person contest between Trump and Rubio. But until Rubio can show he can beat Trump, they should be careful for what they wish for. A week after Super Tuesday, on March 8, Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi will hold primaries and all three will offer a delegate bonus to a candidate who can win 50 percent of the vote, and more than 100 delegates could be claimed by a majority victor. The establishment may need Cruz to hang around for a while.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
