The Tap: Wednesday, October 19, 2016

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The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

Review of the day

The excerpts below were compiled from issue #39 of The Tap, which was published on October 22, 2016. READ THE FULL VERSION HERE.

Federal

• The Trump campaign launched six new television ads in battleground states and on national television stations. One ad features a woman talking about how her son was killed by an undocumented immigrant. She says, “Hillary Clinton's border policy is going to allow people into the country just like the one that murdered my son.” Another ad focuses on Trump’s economic policy proposals. A man wearing a hardhat states, “I think Donald Trump cares about the working man, because the working man has made him what he is.”
• Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin has taken the lead over Trump and Clinton in Utah, according to an Emerson College poll. The poll showed McMullin, a graduate of Utah’s Brigham Young University, at 31 percent to Trump’s 27 percent and Clinton’s 24 percent. The Emerson polls comes shortly after the release of a Rasmussen poll showing Trump narrowly leading the field with 30 percent to McMullin’s 29 percent and Clinton’s 28 percent. On October 20, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, changed Utah’s 2016 rating from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” The state started out earlier in the election cycle as “Safe Republican.” If McMullin ends up winning Utah on November 8, he will become the first non-Democrat or non-Republican presidential candidate to win any state since 1968.
  • See also: Presidential election in Utah, 2016
• The United States has accused Russia of having missile technology that is banned by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, “an agreement Washington and Moscow signed in 1987 to eliminate land-based nuclear and conventional missiles with ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometers, as well as their launchers,” according to The Wall Street Journal. In return, Russia has accused the U.S. of violating the treaty by activating the Aegis Ashore missile defense system in Romania and by using armed drones. The charges will be discussed in front of the treaty’s Special Verification Commission in the coming weeks. State Department spokesman John Kirby said, “The United States continues to seek to resolve Russia’s noncompliance with the INF Treaty. Our bilateral engagements on this issue with Russia have been unsuccessful. An available mechanism to address our concerns is the treaty’s implementation mechanism—the Special Verification Commission.”
• According to CNN, the Clinton campaign believes Arizona, a typically red state, has a better chance of being flipped than Georgia or Texas. "Arizona's population growth is heavily Latino, and non-profit groups working in the state for years have registered many of those Latinos to vote. The state also has a younger population and a relatively large number of colleges -- making it easier to reach large pools of millennial voters," CNN reported. Chelsea Clinton, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and first lady Michelle Obama campaigned for Clinton in the state this week. The campaign has also invested $2 million in television ads in Arizona.
  • See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016
• Jill Stein said in an interview that the United States was "on the verge of nuclear war right now" with Russia. She continued, "[F]rom Russia’s point of view, they’ve been encroached upon, there have been missiles that have surrounded them now. And this has been going on for years. Now there are war games going on and exercises, and our negotiations have absolutely broken down. And both sides are moving their missiles in for exchange. So to my mind, this is the Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse, on steroids." She advocated engaging Russia on nuclear disarmament and said that "it’s us who’s been slamming the door on nuclear disarmament progress."
  • See also: 2016 presidential candidates on Russia
• The U.S. Health and Human Services Department (HHS) predicted that a total of 13.8 million people would select an ACA exchange plan or re-enroll during the open enrollment period this fall. This would be an increase of 1 million compared to the number of people who selected a plan during the 2015 open enrollment period. The agency also predicted that effectuated monthly enrollment (i.e., those who select a plan and pay their first month’s premiums) would average at 11.4 million people in 2017, as those who do not pay their first month’s premiums are not officially enrolled. Other outside analysts have predicted slower growth or a drop in exchange enrollment. This year’s open enrollment begins on November 1, 2016, and ends on January 31, 2017.
• Ballotpedia held a webinar on energy and environmental policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

State

• Prison reform in the state of Michigan is believed to be gathering “widespread, bipartisan support” according to an article published on MLive, a Michigan news website. In particular, Governor Rick Snyder (R) and former state representative Joe Haveman (R) advocated for changes that are often associated with the Democratic Party, such as developing ways to address “root societal causes” for crime and criminal behavior. The article stated that Michigan is a “leader in locking up its own citizens,” costing about $2 billion per year. The article also highlighted three particular facets of criminal justice that were identified by both parties as areas in need of reform:
  • 1: Prisoner re-entry, or easing the transition from prison life back into normal society.
  • 2: Sentencing, specifically reducing sentences for nonviolent offenses such as “writing bad checks” or “breaking into parking meters.”
  • 3: Elderly prisoners, or enabling ways for elderly prisoners (who are not deemed dangerous to society) to end their sentences early.
• Iowa Republicans are outspending Democrats by nearly 70 percent in four races for the Iowa State Senate. Democrats currently have 25 seats in the Senate to the Republicans’ 23. There is currently one vacant seat most recently held by the late Joe Seng (D) and one seat held by independent David Johnson. Among the seats targeted by the Republican Party is the seat for District 34, currently held by Liz Mathis (D). Republicans provided more than $242,000 to the campaign of Rene Gadelha (R), compared to the $44,000 provided to Mathis by the Democratic Party. In the other races, Republicans have spent an average of $289,000 to the Democrats’ average of $172,000. In total, 25 of the Senate’s 50 seats are up for election this year. If Republicans are able to take the Senate, they are expected to become a state government trifecta.
  • Join Ballotpedia's trifectas webinar as our experts discuss the 18 states that could see changes to their trifectas after the election.
• Members of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) contributed $21,994,232—on October 19 alone—to the campaign opposing California Proposition 61, an initiative designed to regulate how much the state pays for drugs, making the opposition the recipient of $108.95 million in contributions this election cycle. The opposition campaign is likely to be the most expensive ballot measure campaign of 2016. Opponents of California Proposition 56, a tobacco tax increase, raised the second largest amount of total campaign funds at $66.5 million. Supporters of Proposition 61, backed by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, have raised $14.7 million this election cycle. Over $461 million has been raised for campaigns surrounding California’s 17 ballot measures in November. Contributions in California account for more than half of this year’s total funds raised for ballot measures across the nation.
• Vermont Public Radio released the results of a poll showing gubernatorial candidates Sue Minter (D) and Phil Scott (R) in a statistical tie. The poll was conducted in early October. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Scott, while 38 percent said they would vote for Minter; the margin of error was 3.9 percent. The seat is open due to incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin's retirement, and while the race is ranked "Lean Democrat," Lt. Gov. Scott is a popular figure in a state that has a history of electing notable Republican politicians to the governorship. Jim Douglas (R) was the state treasurer at the time of his election in 2002, and Richard Snelling (R) was lieutenant governor when he won the seat in 1990. Additionally, the office has changed party hands every other officeholder since 1963 (Republicans had previously held the seat since 1856). The last two open elections for governor were decided by less than 3 percentage points. If Republicans do win the governorship, it will end a five-year Democratic trifecta.
• Ballotpedia held a webinar on energy and environmental policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Local

• In San Francisco, Airbnb announced that it will automatically ban certain hosts from its website. Beginning November 1, 2016, hosts controlling multiple short-term rental listings will be identified by the company and barred from using the Airbnb website. These types of listings are often a sign of landlords running illegal hotels, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Under city law, homeowners are only allowed to rent out the single home in which they reside, making multiple listings by one host a red flag. Hosts with legitimate multiple listings, such as property management companies or individuals renting out multiple rooms in a single home, can file an exemption with Airbnb. The move by Airbnb may be an attempt to ameliorate the rocky relationship between itself and its hometown. Since April 2016, the company reported removing roughly 900 illicit listings from its website in response to tougher restrictions on short-term rentals adopted by the San Francisco City Council. “We want to work with the city on a holistic approach to make sure the home-sharing laws are working,” said Airbnb public policy head Chris Lehane. City officials and housing activists have questioned why the company is able to make this sweeping change but not take other steps to comply with city laws, such as banning whole-home listings after a 90-day cap. San Francisco is the fourth-largest city in California and the 14th-largest city in the U.S. by population.
  • The clash between Airbnb and San Francisco has been ongoing:
    • On June 27, Airbnb sued San Francisco over a city law imposing fines on the company for any illegal listings found on the Airbnb website.
    • On June 7, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously approved legislation that restricted commercial postings from short-term housing rental websites. Under the law, only residents registered with the city as hosts were permitted to post short-term listings. Any individual or business found posting a noncompliant listing could be fined up to $1,000 per day. Because the legislation passed the board unanimously, the law was protected from a threatened veto by Mayor Ed Lee (D). Instead, Lee let the law pass without signing it. The new penalties took full effect on July 27, 2016.
    • The San Francisco Board of Supervisors designed the new penalties to make Airbnb accountable for any illegal listings after a law passed in 2015 failed to be enforced. The “Airbnb law,” which passed with full support from the company in 2015, capped short-term rentals and required hosts to register with the city. It was estimated that only 20 percent of roughly 7,000 hosts registered after the law was passed, and the board alleged that Airbnb failed to remove lawbreakers.
    • A similar law was passed in New York on June 17. Lawmakers adopted legislation that would levies fines of up to $7,500 on individuals using Airbnb to rent an entire apartment for fewer than 30 days. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has until October 29, 2016, to decide whether or not to sign the bill into law. Airbnb has threatened to sue New York City if the bill becomes law. A 2016 study estimated that 55 percent of rentals in the city violated a law passed in 2010 that made it illegal to rent an entire apartment or home for fewer than 30 days. In 2015, Airbnb began to pay hotel taxes in an effort to better cooperate with host cities, but the regulation requires that Airbnb hosts—rather than Airbnb itself—pay these taxes. The millions of dollars in hotel taxes paid to New York City did not ameliorate the relationship between New York and Airbnb, and New York lawmakers said they would work with Airbnb only after all illegal postings were removed from the company’s website.
• A new report shows that minority students in California are disproportionately affected when police are summoned to schools. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) studied 119 California school districts, including 50 of the largest districts in the state during the 2013-2014 school year. According to the study, school districts have begun outsourcing discipline by calling the police. More than half of the districts called the police for low-level disciplinary infractions, such as bullying or disrupting class, and one-third require the police be called for incidents of vandalism. Of the 9,540 school-related arrests made, black students were three times more likely to be arrested than their white peers. According to the ACLU, these arrests disproportionately affect poor, minority, and disabled students. In 2011, an autistic student was cited for vandalism after he carved his initials into the sidewalk outside of East Side Union High School in San Jose. The incident left the student with a criminal record. The report found that 98 percent of the incidents analyzed did not require parental notification prior to a student being interviewed by the police. In 99 percent of the incidents, officers weren’t required to advise students of their constitutional rights, such as the right to remain silent, if the student was not under arrest. The study recommended that school staff should handle the majority of in-school discipline and should only call the police if there is an immediate physical threat to anyone on a school campus.
• New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s (D) fundraising campaign is under federal investigation by the FBI and the U.S. attorney in Manhattan. Since April 2016, thousands of emails and documents have been scrutinized by prosecutors who are questioning whether or not de Blasio traded beneficial city action in exchange for donations to his campaign in 2013. According to The New York Times, at the center of the investigation is whether the mayor violated state election laws when he raised money to support three Democratic state Senate candidates in 2014. There are roughly six other cases under investigation, but the inquiry has failed to uncover sufficient evidence to charge de Blasio with any criminal wrongdoing. While a spokesman for de Blasio declined to comment on the ongoing review, he did state that the administration “didn’t pay-to-play” and that its actors had acted appropriately at all times. New York City is the largest city in the U.S. by population.

Preview of the day

The excerpts below were compiled from issue #38 of The Tap, which was published on October 15, 2016. READ THE FULL VERSION HERE.

Federal

• The third and final presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will take place on October 19. Here is everything you need to know:
  • It starts at 9 pm ET and will last 90 minutes, commercial-free.
  • The venue is the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.
  • Chris Wallace of FOX News will be the moderator. Wallace moderated the first Republican primary debate on August 6, 2015. He is the first FOX News anchor to moderate a general election debate.
  • Wallace announced the debate’s topics in a press release on October 12. Topics include debt and entitlements, immigration, the economy, the Supreme Court, “foreign hot spots,” and “fitness to be president.”
  • In terms of format, the Commission on Presidential Debates states that the debate will be composed of six 15-minute segments, each covering a major topic selected by the moderator and made public a week prior to the debate. Each segment will open with a question and each candidate will have two minutes to respond—followed by responses to each other—with the remaining time being used for deeper discussion.
  • Third debates tend to have slightly fewer viewers than first and second debates. Two exceptions were 2004 and 1992. In 2004, the first debate between John Kerry (D) and George W. Bush (R) had 62.4 million, the second had 46.7 million, and the third had 51.1 million. In 1992, the first debate between Bill Clinton (D), George H.W. Bush (R), and Ross Perot (I) had 62.4 million, the second had 69.9 million, and the third had 66.9 million.
  • On October 14, 2016, the CPD announced that it had invited Clinton and Trump to the third presidential debate. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were not invited because they did not meet the 15-percent polling average threshold required by the CPD. In a statement, the CPD said that its board of directors had "determined that the polling averages called for in the third criterion are as follows: Hillary Clinton (45.8%), Donald Trump (40.4%), Gary Johnson (7.0%) and Jill Stein (2.2%). Accordingly, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump qualify to participate in the October 19 debate. No other candidates satisfied the criteria for inclusion in the October 19 debate."
  • See also: Presidential debate at the University of Nevada (October 19, 2016)
• Join Ballotpedia's energy and environmental policy conflicts webinar as we discuss the Obama administration's major policy initiatives and the expected impact of the 2016 presidential election on those policies. Our experts will review these policies, update you on the legal challenges, and review how congressional elections could impact these policies. Register to learn how the policies have renewed the debate about the role of the federal government in setting energy and environmental policies for the states.