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Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District election, 2018: Difference between revisions

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{{Ballotpedia Election Updates}}
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==Election results==
==Candidates and election results==
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Revision as of 00:47, 26 October 2018


2020 →
← 2016
Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: September 4, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Joseph Kennedy III (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Massachusetts
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+9
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Massachusetts elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Massachusetts, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election, the incumbent was Joseph Kennedy III (D), who was first elected in 2012.

Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District was one of 39 U.S. House districts where a Republican did not run in 2018. To learn more click here.

Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes parts of Bristol, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Worcester counties.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Massachusetts District 4

Incumbent Joseph Kennedy III won election in the general election for U.S. House Massachusetts District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Joseph Kennedy III
Joseph Kennedy III (D)
 
97.7
 
245,289
 Other/Write-in votes
 
2.3
 
5,727

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 251,016
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 4

Incumbent Joseph Kennedy III defeated Gary Rucinski in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 4 on September 4, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Joseph Kennedy III
Joseph Kennedy III
 
93.4
 
60,214
Image of Gary Rucinski
Gary Rucinski Candidate Connection
 
6.6
 
4,240

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 64,454
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District the 128th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.18. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.18 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Joseph Kennedy III Democratic Party $4,496,056 $3,074,453 $4,173,181 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Joseph Kennedy III (D) defeated David Rosa (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in September.[4][5]

U.S. House, Massachusetts District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoseph Kennedy III Incumbent 70.1% 265,823
     Republican David Rosa 29.8% 113,055
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 335
Total Votes 379,213
Source: Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth

2014

See also: Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Massachusetts held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Joseph Kennedy III (D) won an uncontested general election.

U.S. House, Massachusetts District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Kennedy Incumbent 72.1% 184,158
     Write-in Other 1.5% 3,940
     Blank None 26.3% 67,199
Total Votes 255,297
Source: Massachusetts Secretary of State Official Results

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Massachusetts. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Massachusetts with 60 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 32.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Republican 36.2 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Democratic all five times.[6]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Massachusetts. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 135 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 141 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. Clinton won 21 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 4.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, "Democratic candidates for nomination" accessed June 15, 2016
  5. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, "Republican candidates for nomination," accessed June 15, 2016
  6. ↑ 270towin.com, "Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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