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Splits between the Electoral College and popular vote
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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Last updated on December 19, 2016
Donald Trump won the Electoral College vote in the 2016 presidential election, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.[1] When the members of the Electoral College met on December 19, 2016, Trump received 304 votes to Clinton's 227.[2] As of that same day, however, Clinton led in the popular vote, 48.3 percent to 46.2 percent. Clinton had 65,844,969 votes. Trump had 62,979,984, a difference of more than 2.8 million.
Have splits between the popular vote and the Electoral College ever happened before? What caused the mismatch in 2016? And why is it significant?
Has this ever happened before?
- See also: Electoral College
Yes, but it's rare. Prior to 2016, splits between the popular vote and the Electoral College have occurred three times: 2000, 1888, and 1876. In addition to this, a candidate in 1824 won the election while losing both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. Past occurences are listed below in reverse chronological order. "PV winner" indicates the popular vote winner. "EV winner" indicates the Electoral College vote winner.
| 2000 Presidential election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| George W. Bush (EV winner) | Republican | 271 | 50,456,062 |
| Al Gore (PV winner) | Democratic | 266 | 50,996,582 |
| 1888 Presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Benjamin Harrison (EV winner) | Republican | 233 | 5,439, 853 |
| Grover Cleveland (PV winner) | Democratic | 168 | 5,540,309 |
| 1876 Presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Rutherford B. Hayes (EV winner) | Republican | 185 | 4,036,298 |
| Samuel J. Tilden (PV winner) | Democratic | 184 | 4,300,590 |
| *Honorable Mention: 1824 Presidential election | |||
| Candidate | Party | Electoral votes | Popular vote |
| Andrew Jackson (PV winner) | Democratic-Republican | 99 | 153,544 |
| John Quincy Adams | Democratic-Republican | 84 | 108,740 |
| William H. Crawford | Democratic-Republican | 41 | 40,856 |
| Henry Clay | Democratic-Republican | 37 | 47,531 |
| Source: 270toWin, "Historical presidential elections," accessed November 9, 2016 | |||
*Technically, there was not a split between the Electoral College and the popular vote in 1824, because the winning candidate was the winner of neither the popular vote nor the Electoral College vote that year. No candidate won a majority in the Electoral College—131 votes at the time—which sent the decision to the House of Representatives. The House picked Adams, who came in second in both the popular vote total and the Electoral College.
What caused the split in 2016?
The details will become clearer as final votes are tallied, but a combination of three things seem to have led to the mismatch between the Electoral College and the popular vote.
- The first part of the combination were Clinton’s significant vote totals in large blue states like New York and California, where, between the two, she had already pulled in more than 13 million votes by mid-December, 2016. Big margins in these states inflated Clinton’s popular vote totals while doing little to offset her deficit in the Electoral College.
- Similarly, Clinton performed well in several red states that she ended up losing. In Texas, for example, she received 3.8 million votes. Barack Obama’s final vote count in Texas in 2012 was 3.3 million. Clinton also added significantly to her popular vote totals in Arizona and Georgia. Trump won both of those states.
- The third part of the combination were several close races in battleground states with large populations. In states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, razor thin margins separated Clinton and Trump.
Why is a split between the electoral college and the popular vote significant?
Constitutionally, it isn’t significant. Because the U.S. Constitution requires presidents to be elected through the Electoral College, the nationwide popular vote is irrelevant. But mismatches between the Electoral College and popular vote do have political significance in that they feed into debates about the future of the Electoral College system.
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An Electoral College primer: The Electoral College system is laid out in Article II of the U.S. Constitution. In this system, each state receives a number of votes equal to the total number of their delegation to the United States Congress. The vote casters, known as electors, are chosen by rules differing in each state, but many are elected during each party's state conventions. Electors have traditionally cast their votes for president in December, following the general election in November. The Electoral College system emerged as a compromise between the framers of the Constitution who were divided over the election of the president by popular vote, by Congress, or by state legislatures. Benjamin Ginsberg, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, writes in his book Presidential Government, the framers viewed the Electoral College as "an actual decision making body that would reduce the uncertain impact of popular participation and increase the likelihood that only well-qualified would be elected to the presidency."[3] One of the framers, Alexander Hamilton, explained in The Federalist Papers, "It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. ... It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice."[4] Another intention of the framers in designing the Electoral College was to balance the electoral influence of heavily and lightly populated states. Some feared that the popular election of presidents would disproportionately favor heavily populated states with large urban centers and lots of voters at the expense of lightly populated states with fewer voters. James Madison, a supporter of the election of presidents by popular vote, noted in 1787 that Northern states would have an advantage over Southern states in national popular vote elections, because "the right of suffrage was more diffusive in the Northern than the Southern states." The Electoral College, it was argued, could help even out such disparities.[5] The political power of electors has decreased since the time of the framers. While framers like Hamilton intended for electors to vote their conscience in elections—the Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes—electors today generally vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors. Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[6][7] |
Arguments for and against the Electoral College
Groups such as National Popular Vote Inc., a 501(c)(4) organization, argue that a national popular vote should replace the Electoral College system. On its website, National Popular Vote Inc. states that, under the Electoral College system, presidential candidates do not “pay attention to the issues of concern to voters in states where the statewide outcome is a foregone conclusion.” Awarding the presidency based on the popular vote, the group argues, “ensures that every vote, in every state, will matter in every presidential election.”[8]
Other supporters of the popular election of presidents have argued that the Electoral College disproportionately favors smaller states. Because each state has a minimum of three electoral votes, votes from those in the least populated states technically count more toward the electoral vote than votes from those in more populous states. For instance, in 1988, the seven least populated states combined to count for as many electoral votes as Florida, yet the combined population of those states was less than that of Florida.[9]
On the other hand, groups like the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, have warned against replacing the Electoral College system with a national popular vote. Hans von Spakovsky, for example, wrote a legal memorandum for Heritage in which he argued, “The NPV would devalue the minority interests that the Founders sought to protect, create electoral administrative problems, encourage voter fraud, and radicalize the U.S. political system. It also would likely violate the U.S. Constitution’s Compact Clause while directly contravening the Founders’ view of federalism and a representative republic. In an age of perceived political dysfunction, effective policies already in place—especially successful policies established by this nation’s Founders, such as the Electoral College—should be preserved.”[10]
The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, adds that a national popular vote system could disproportionately favor the most populous regions of the country. "We would probably see elections dominated by the most populous regions of the country or by several large metropolitan areas. In the 2000 election, for example, Vice President Gore could have put together a plurality or majority in the Northeast, parts of the Midwest, and California. The victims in such elections would be those regions too sparsely populated to merit the attention of presidential candidates," wrote John Samples, the vice president of the Cato Institute, in the immediate aftermath of the 2000 election.[11]
Legislative activity and popular opinion
- See also: Interstate compact
The focal point of national popular vote advocates is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement among several states to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of that candidate's performance in their state. The basic idea of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is that the Electoral College would remain intact, but if, for example, the Republican presidential candidate won the national popular vote, his or her electors in states that are part of the compact would automatically be declared the winners. As of 2016, 10 states and Washington, D.C., (see map below) had signed on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. These jurisdictions represent 165 electoral votes. These states have not, however, enacted the compact. In signing on to the compact, they have agreed to enact its contents only after enough states have joined the compact to equal a majority of available electoral college votes.[12] Read more about interstate compacts and the legal issues surrounding them here.
*States in green have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. States in yellow have considered the law in their state legislatures.
Text of the compact
The legislatures of each member state have passed the compact into law with various modifications, but the text of the legislation remains largely the same.
Article I: MembershipAny State of the United States and the District of Columbia may become a member of this agreement by enacting this agreement. Article II: Right of the People in Member States to Vote for President and Vice PresidentEach member state shall conduct a statewide popular election for President and Vice President of the United States. Article III: Manner of Appointing Presidential Electors in Member States
Article IV: Other Provisions
Article V: DefinitionsFor purposes of this agreement,
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Popular opinion
There are some indications that the general public favors the idea of a national popular vote. Gallup polls from 2011 and 2016 found that more than 60 percent of Americans supported amending the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College with a popular vote system.[13][14]
Congressional activity
A review of past legislative activity since the 1970s on Congress.gov revealed dozens of pieces of legislation seeking to abolish, amend, or reexamine the Electoral College system. Below are a few key highlights.
- Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) introduced legislation in the Senate on November 15, 2016, that would replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote system. In a statement, she said, "In my lifetime, I have seen two elections where the winner of the general election did not win the popular vote. When all the ballots are counted, Hillary Clinton will have won the popular vote by a margin that could exceed two million votes, and she is on track to have received more votes than any other presidential candidate in history except Barack Obama. This is the only office in the land where you can get more votes and still lose the presidency. The Electoral College is an outdated, undemocratic system that does not reflect our modern society, and it needs to change immediately. Every American should be guaranteed that their vote counts."[15]
- In 2009, Rep. Gene Green (D-TX) introduced the "Every Vote Count Amendment," which provided "for the popular election of the President and Vice President under a new electoral system."[16] That same year, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) also introduced a bill seeking to replace the Electoral College with the direct popular election of president and vice president.[17] Neither bill ever made it out of committee.
- In 1985, Rep. George Gekas (R-PA) introduced a bill, proposing a commission that would consider the pros and cons of the Electoral College and study potential alternatives.[18]
- In 1969, Congress came close to passing a law requiring the election of president and vice president by popular vote. The bill passed the House but failed to pass in the Senate. Congressional historians consider this to have been the "closest" that Congress has ever come to amending the Electoral College system since the early nineteenth century.[19]
Donald Trump's comments on the Electoral College
Donald Trump, who won the 2016 presidential election, has made several comments on the Electoral College system, at times criticizing it and at other times praising it. On the evening of the 2012 presidential election on November 6, Trump tweeted, "The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy." On November 15, 2016, he tweeted, "The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!"
In an interview with The New York Times on November 22, 2016, Trump elaborated further on his opinions of the Electoral College. He stated, "I’d rather do the popular vote from the standpoint — I’d think we’d do actually as well or better — it’s a whole different campaign. It’s like, if you’re a golfer, it’s like match play versus stroke play. It’s a whole different game. But I think the popular vote would have been easier in a true sense because you’d go to a few places. I think that’s the genius of the Electoral College." He added that he was "never a fan of the electoral college until now. ... What it does do is it gets you out to see states that you’ll never see otherwise."[20]
See also
- Trump wins White House as “Blue Wall” crumbles
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential battleground states, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ Electors officially voted in state capitals throughout the country on December 19, 2016. Congress officially counted the votes of the electors and declared a winner on January 6, 2017. Click here for more.
- ↑ Trump and Clinton were projected to receive 306 and 232 votes, respectively. Read about what happened here.
- ↑ Ginsberg, B. (2016). Presidential Government, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
- ↑ U.S. Congress, "Federal No. 68," accessed November 10, 2016
- ↑ Nedelsky, J. (1990). Private Property and the Limits of American Constitutionalism: The Madisonian Framework and its Legacy, Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press
- ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
- ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
- ↑ National Popular Vote, "Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote," accessed November 10, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "The Electoral College," May 1992
- ↑ Heritage, "Destroying the Electoral College: The Anti-Federalist National Popular Vote Scheme," October 27, 2011
- ↑ Cato Institute, "In Defense of the Electoral College," November 10, 2016
- ↑ National Popular Vote, "Home," accessed November 9, 2016
- ↑ Gallup, "Americans Would Swap Electoral College for Popular Vote," October 24, 2011
- ↑ Gallup, "Americans Call for Term Limits, End to Electoral College," January 18, 2016
- ↑ Barbara Boxer, "Boxer Introduces Bill To Abolish The Electoral College," November 15, 2016
- ↑ Congress, "H.J.Res.9 - Every Vote Counts Amendment," accessed November 22, 2016
- ↑ Congress, "H.J.Res.36 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to abolish the Electoral College and provide for the direct election of the President and Vice President by the popular vote of all citizens of the United States regardless of place of residence," accessed November 22, 2016
- ↑ Congress, "H.R.507 - Commission to Study the Electoral College Act," accessed November 22, 2016
- ↑ U.S. House, "Electoral College Fast Facts," accessed November 9, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Donald Trump’s New York Times Interview: Full Transcript," November 23, 2016
