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Trump wins White House as “Blue Wall” crumbles
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
November 9, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Republican Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States, carrying key industrial states that Democrats had grown accustomed to winning. Trump’s improbable victory was capped by narrowly capturing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that had been part of the Democratic Party’s so-called “Blue Wall,” states that Democratic presidential nominees had won in six of the last six presidential elections. Hillary Clinton, Trump’s Democratic opponent, called him to concede the election early Wednesday morning.
As of 3:00 p.m., Trump’s lead in the Electoral College stood at 290 to 228, according to CNN. Trump won Iowa, a state that Democrats had won in five of the past six presidential elections, and Ohio, another major manufacturing state that they had won in four of the past six elections. He beat Clinton in Iowa by 52 to 42 percent, vastly better than George W. Bush’s half-a-point margin over John Kerry in 2004. Trump won Ohio by roughly 450,000 votes yesterday; Bush only beat Kerry by about 118,000. In Michigan, with 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Trump was hanging on to a scant lead of some 12,000 votes in a race that remained uncalled by CNN.
Trump also prevailed in states with growing Hispanic and Latino populations like Arizona and Florida where many Democrats thought an increase in turnout among that voting bloc might tip these Republican states into their column. Clinton did, however, carry Nevada, where Hispanics made up almost one in five of the voters.
African Americans, another key component of the Democratic coalition that voted for Clinton by an 11-to-1 margin according to the television network exit polls, failed to swing North Carolina into its column. Trump won the Tarheel State by some 175,000 votes, almost 4 percentage points.
Clinton and the Democrats did win swing states like Colorado and Virginia where college-educated voters—a critical group for the party—made up a majority of the electorate. Another encouraging sign for Democrats is that, when all the votes are counted in California and the rest of the West Coast, Clinton is likely to win more popular votes than Trump.
Trump’s ability to flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into his column was one of the most important factors contributing to his success. If those two states, with a combined total of 30 electoral votes, remained as bricks in the Democrats’ “blue wall,” he would only have amassed 259 electoral votes by Wednesday morning, 11 short of the number needed to claim victory.
Based on a review of the unofficial returns, it appears that Trump’s success in Pennsylvania was largely due to his relatively strong showing—and Clinton’s disappointing performance—in the portions of the state beyond Philadelphia and its suburbs.
While the Democratic turnout dipped in Philadelphia County, and Clinton’s margin over Trump in the city was about 37,000 votes less than President Barack Obama’s margin over 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney, her strong showing in the Philly suburbs more than made up for this shortfall. Clinton won all four of the suburban counties—Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Bucks—that surround Philadelphia. (In 2012, Romney eked out a 500-vote victory in Chester.) And combined with the results from Philadelphia, her margin over Trump was about 20,000 votes more than Obama’s margin over Romney.
But in the territory outside of Philadelphia and its suburban bulwark, Trump was able to increase Republican margins, most notably, in northeastern Pennsylvania. In 2012, Obama won the 15-county region by a slim 51 to 48 percent over Romney. Trump won this turf, based on unofficial returns, by 55 to 42 percent, a swing of 16 percentage points.
In 2012, Obama won five of the 15 counties in northeastern Pennsylvania: Lackawana, home to Scranton, where Vice President Joe Biden grew up; Leigh, anchored by Allentown; Luzerne, where Wilkes-Barre is the county seat; Monroe, where job growth has been relatively strong compared to the rest of the region, but the economy still lacks diversification; and Northampton, where Bethlehem Steel was founded. In those five counties, President Obama amassed almost a 59,000-vote margin over Romney in the 2012 election. But Clinton only carried three of these counties: Lackawana, Leigh, and Monroe, barely (based on unofficial returns reported by the Pennsylvania secretary of state’s office).
Even with Clinton's victories in this region, the Democratic vote shriveled. For instance, in Lackawana, which Obama won by almost 27,000 votes, Clinton won by less than 4,000. Obama won Monroe by more than 8,000 votes; Clinton is hanging onto a whisker win of 224 votes. With Trump’s impressive wins in Luzerne and Northampton, the president-elect had almost a 21,000-vote victory margin overall in these five counties, which helped lead him to victory in northeastern Pennsylvania.
Of the remaining 47 counties in the state, many of them more rural, Clinton won only three: Allegheny, home to Pennsylvania’s second largest city, Pittsburgh; Centre, where Penn State’s main campus resides; and Dauphin, where the state capitol of Harrisburg employs a number of government employees. (In the latter two counties, Clinton didn’t even win a majority of the votes, only a plurality.)
Pennsylvania underscores the challenges that Democrats face with white blue-collar voters in states with an old manufacturing base. But Clinton’s challenge in Pennsylvania was not limited to older, working-class voters who have seen manufacturing jobs shrink. Many younger voters, whom she was largely unable to connect with in the Democratic presidential primaries, abandoned her. According to the television network exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton managed to carry Pennsylvania voters 18 to 29 years old by roughly 52 to 43 percent. In 2012, President Obama won this age cohort by 63 to 35 percent.
Wisconsin had such a slim margin of victory for Trump—some 27,000 votes according to unofficial returns—that almost every region could have an impact on the ultimate statewide outcome. But there were some similarities between the vote cast in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Clinton’s margin of victory in Milwaukee, like her margin in Philadelphia, was lower than Obama’s four years ago, but she still came out of the county with almost a 163,000-vote advantage over Trump. In the three suburban counties that make up the rest of the Milwaukee metropolitan area—Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha—Trump saw the GOP margin drop some 132,000 votes scored by Romney in 2012 to about 107,000 votes in 2016.
Clinton’s pockets of relative strength came in the University Belt stretching from Rock County—home to the University of Wisconsin-Rock County and liberal arts Beloit College—to La Cross, Eu Claire, and Portage Counties, which also have University of Wisconsin systems. The epicenter of that belt is Dane County, which contains Madison, the state capitol and home to the main UW campus. The academic community and state government employees there make it a Democratic bastion, along with Green, Iowa, and Sauk Counties adjacent to Dane.
But otherwise, Clinton only carried Menominee County, whose borders encompass the Menominee Indian Reservation and three counties at the northern tip of the state: Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas, along the Gogebic iron range.
And Clinton’s support among younger Wisconsin voters fell far short of the turnout they gave Obama four years ago when he won 18- to 29-year-olds by 60 to 37 percent over Romney. Clinton only slipped by Trump among this age group, 47 to 44 percent, according to the networks’ exit poll.
Trump performed relatively well in northwestern Wisconsin, an area known for its natural resources, but also hampered by dwindling private timberland and mines. In 2012, Obama defeated Romney in this region with a liberal Scandinavian heritage, 51 to 48 percent. But Trump carried this rural turf by roughly 54 to 41 percent. Trump also carried northeast Wisconsin, which includes small industrial cities like Appleton, Green Bay, Kenosha, and Sheboygan. Trump won this Republican-leaning region by almost 56 to 39 percent. Romney won it in 2012 by about 51 to 48 percent.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential battleground states, 2016
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
