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Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Nov. 3 (in person); Oct. 19 (by mail)
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 5
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
|
| Maine's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 16, 2020 |
| Primary: July 14, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Jared Golden (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Maine |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd Maine elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
Voters in Maine elected one member to the 2nd Congressional District in the general election on November 3, 2020.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Incumbent Jared Golden (D) ran for re-election. He was first elected in 2018 after challenging and defeating incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R), receiving 51 percent of the vote to Poliquin's 49 percent.
Golden's 2018 election made the 2nd District one of 30 House Districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. During the presidential election, Trump received 51 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 41 percent in the 2nd District.[1]
Golden was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Dale Crafts won a plurality of votes on the first round of tabulation in the Republican primary, and the two other candidates in the race conceded. After the second round of tabulation, Crafts received 59% of the vote to Adrienne Bennett's 42%.
Maine's 2nd Congressional District encompasses the entire portion of the state north of Portland and Augusta. All of Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Hancock, Oxford, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset, Waldo, and Washington counties and a part of Kennebec County are included in the district.[2]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Maine modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Voter registration: The voter pre-registration deadline in the general election was extended to October 19, 2020.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Frequently asked questions
- See also: Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk
The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions. Ballotpedia is in the process of compiling and answering frequently asked questions related to the 2020 elections. Questions related to this election will be available soon.
Election updates
- Sept. 20, 2020: A Siena College poll for The New York Times of 663 likely voters found 56% supporting Golden and 44% supporting Crafts with 6% undecided or refusing to answer and a ±5.1 margin of error.[3]
- Sept. 18, 2020: The Cook Political Report changed its race rating from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.[4]
- Sept. 8, 2020: A Left of Center PAC poll of 400 likely voters found 50% of respondents supporting Golden and 44% supporting Crafts with 6% undecided and a ±5.9 margin of error.[5]
For older updates, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Maine District 2
The ranked-choice voting election was won by Jared Golden in round 1 .
|
Total votes: 373,235 |
|||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic Primary for U.S. House Maine District 2
The following candidates advanced in the ranked-choice voting election: Jared Golden in round 1 .
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Total votes: 57,718 |
|||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican Primary for U.S. House Maine District 2
The following candidates advanced in the ranked-choice voting election: Dale Crafts in round 2 . The results of Round are displayed below. To see the results of other rounds, use the dropdown menu above to select a round and the table will update.
|
Total votes: 42,347 |
|||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- John Hiatt (R)
| Maine 2nd Congressional District, 2020: General election polls | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Golden
|
Crafts
|
Other | Margin of error | Sample size | Sponsor | ||
| Siena College [3] | Sept. 11-16 | 56% | 37% | 6%[6] | ± 5.1 | 663 | The New York Times | ||
| LOC Wick[5] | Aug. 25-28, 2020 | 50% | 44% | 6% | ± 4.9 | 400 | Left of Center PAC | ||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Eight of 16 Maine counties—50 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Androscoggin County, Maine | 9.38% | 12.78% | 15.22% | ||||
| Aroostook County, Maine | 17.19% | 7.62% | 9.58% | ||||
| Franklin County, Maine | 5.47% | 18.41% | 20.29% | ||||
| Kennebec County, Maine | 3.58% | 13.46% | 14.78% | ||||
| Oxford County, Maine | 12.94% | 14.73% | 16.04% | ||||
| Penobscot County, Maine | 10.91% | 2.93% | 5.12% | ||||
| Somerset County, Maine | 22.67% | 1.68% | 5.70% | ||||
| Washington County, Maine | 18.44% | 1.60% | 1.01% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Maine with 47.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In 2016, Maine had four electoral votes. Maine's share of electoral votes represented 0.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 1.5 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Maine awards its electoral votes by congressional district and the popular vote. It has two electoral votes for the statewide vote and one for each of its two congressional districts. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Maine voted Republican 67.3 percent of the time and Democratic 32.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Maine voted Democratic all five times.[7]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Maine. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 129 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 19.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 69 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 8.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 16 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 64.22% | 33.76% | D+30.5 | 62.55% | 31.23% | D+31.3 | D |
| 2 | 57.25% | 40.85% | D+16.4 | 54.49% | 39.23% | D+15.3 | D |
| 3 | 57.10% | 41.89% | D+15.2 | 56.99% | 37.44% | D+19.5 | D |
| 4 | 56.87% | 41.62% | D+15.2 | 53.70% | 40.57% | D+13.1 | D |
| 5 | 48.42% | 49.31% | R+0.9 | 40.09% | 52.91% | R+12.8 | R |
| 6 | 54.77% | 43.03% | D+11.7 | 49.42% | 43.22% | D+6.2 | D |
| 7 | 54.04% | 44.26% | D+9.8 | 50.52% | 43.02% | D+7.5 | R |
| 8 | 57.56% | 40.71% | D+16.8 | 57.68% | 35.92% | D+21.8 | D |
| 9 | 58.64% | 39.98% | D+18.7 | 56.60% | 37.23% | D+19.4 | R |
| 10 | 54.02% | 43.13% | D+10.9 | 41.58% | 50.80% | R+9.2 | R |
| 11 | 66.36% | 31.38% | D+35 | 55.49% | 37.35% | D+18.1 | D |
| 12 | 69.51% | 27.82% | D+41.7 | 55.49% | 37.35% | D+18.1 | D |
| 13 | 63.20% | 35.03% | D+28.2 | 54.95% | 39.36% | D+15.6 | D |
| 14 | 63.73% | 34.40% | D+29.3 | 58.39% | 35.61% | D+22.8 | D |
| 15 | 60.76% | 37.27% | D+23.5 | 52.98% | 40.36% | D+12.6 | D |
| 16 | 52.74% | 44.50% | D+8.2 | 40.29% | 52.24% | R+11.9 | R |
| 17 | 52.83% | 44.53% | D+8.3 | 36.47% | 55.51% | R+19 | R |
| 18 | 61.34% | 36.11% | D+25.2 | 45.60% | 45.84% | R+0.2 | D |
| 19 | 57.69% | 40.05% | D+17.6 | 44.20% | 48.08% | R+3.9 | R |
| 20 | 46.78% | 50.23% | R+3.4 | 32.83% | 60.18% | R+27.3 | R |
| 21 | 52.88% | 44.78% | D+8.1 | 39.31% | 53.47% | R+14.2 | R |
| 22 | 50.96% | 46.27% | D+4.7 | 37.84% | 55.25% | R+17.4 | R |
| 23 | 50.59% | 47.44% | D+3.2 | 40.02% | 53.28% | R+13.3 | R |
| 24 | 51.97% | 45.85% | D+6.1 | 43.87% | 49.17% | R+5.3 | D |
| 25 | 52.34% | 45.03% | D+7.3 | 43.87% | 49.17% | R+5.3 | R |
| 26 | 57.85% | 40.10% | D+17.7 | 52.22% | 41.41% | D+10.8 | D |
| 27 | 55.21% | 42.99% | D+12.2 | 52.66% | 40.37% | D+12.3 | D |
| 28 | 54.16% | 44.13% | D+10 | 55.14% | 39.08% | D+16.1 | R |
| 29 | 54.16% | 44.13% | D+10 | 55.14% | 39.08% | D+16.1 | R |
| 30 | 63.23% | 35.50% | D+27.7 | 70.43% | 24.88% | D+45.6 | D |
| 31 | 72.88% | 25.36% | D+47.5 | 74.35% | 20.62% | D+53.7 | D |
| 32 | 66.87% | 31.00% | D+35.9 | 65.27% | 29.03% | D+36.2 | D |
| 33 | 67.72% | 30.37% | D+37.4 | 62.55% | 31.48% | D+31.1 | R |
| 34 | 61.95% | 35.19% | D+26.8 | 57.32% | 35.48% | D+21.8 | D |
| 35 | 63.65% | 34.15% | D+29.5 | 55.04% | 37.86% | D+17.2 | D |
| 36 | 69.85% | 28.12% | D+41.7 | 69.99% | 24.69% | D+45.3 | D |
| 37 | 74.82% | 22.79% | D+52 | 74.84% | 19.17% | D+55.7 | D |
| 38 | 84.99% | 10.96% | D+74 | 84.49% | 9.56% | D+74.9 | D |
| 39 | 84.15% | 12.47% | D+71.7 | 81.52% | 12.27% | D+69.3 | D |
| 40 | 83.40% | 12.49% | D+70.9 | 79.10% | 12.76% | D+66.3 | D |
| 41 | 74.79% | 22.43% | D+52.4 | 75.16% | 19.11% | D+56 | D |
| 42 | 73.59% | 24.03% | D+49.6 | 73.34% | 21.68% | D+51.7 | D |
| 43 | 60.77% | 37.87% | D+22.9 | 64.59% | 30.36% | D+34.2 | D |
| 44 | 54.86% | 43.78% | D+11.1 | 61.70% | 33.10% | D+28.6 | D |
| 45 | 52.97% | 45.45% | D+7.5 | 58.41% | 35.08% | D+23.3 | D |
| 46 | 53.97% | 43.54% | D+10.4 | 50.88% | 42.34% | D+8.5 | R |
| 47 | 61.12% | 37.17% | D+23.9 | 67.44% | 26.84% | D+40.6 | D |
| 48 | 63.72% | 34.42% | D+29.3 | 62.79% | 30.71% | D+32.1 | D |
| 49 | 66.60% | 30.87% | D+35.7 | 64.31% | 29.15% | D+35.2 | D |
| 50 | 66.60% | 30.87% | D+35.7 | 64.31% | 29.15% | D+35.2 | D |
| 51 | 58.58% | 39.45% | D+19.1 | 55.69% | 38.65% | D+17 | D |
| 52 | 63.98% | 33.34% | D+30.6 | 58.51% | 33.61% | D+24.9 | D |
| 53 | 56.02% | 41.61% | D+14.4 | 45.84% | 46.96% | R+1.1 | R |
| 54 | 57.11% | 40.82% | D+16.3 | 53.00% | 39.43% | D+13.6 | D |
| 55 | 52.51% | 44.95% | D+7.6 | 40.95% | 51.26% | R+10.3 | D |
| 56 | 50.09% | 46.77% | D+3.3 | 35.42% | 57.00% | R+21.6 | R |
| 57 | 49.74% | 47.49% | D+2.3 | 31.76% | 61.09% | R+29.3 | R |
| 58 | 56.16% | 41.59% | D+14.6 | 40.51% | 52.08% | R+11.6 | D |
| 59 | 59.75% | 38.11% | D+21.6 | 48.86% | 44.30% | D+4.6 | D |
| 60 | 69.63% | 27.53% | D+42.1 | 63.88% | 29.58% | D+34.3 | D |
| 61 | 60.40% | 36.73% | D+23.7 | 45.18% | 47.33% | R+2.2 | D |
| 62 | 57.96% | 39.18% | D+18.8 | 45.94% | 45.57% | D+0.4 | D |
| 63 | 56.47% | 40.52% | D+15.9 | 43.52% | 48.81% | R+5.3 | R |
| 64 | 54.78% | 42.67% | D+12.1 | 44.04% | 47.76% | R+3.7 | D |
| 65 | 50.66% | 47.08% | D+3.6 | 40.92% | 51.66% | R+10.7 | R |
| 66 | 52.42% | 45.33% | D+7.1 | 41.68% | 51.40% | R+9.7 | D |
| 67 | 50.43% | 47.14% | D+3.3 | 42.81% | 49.99% | R+7.2 | R |
| 68 | 50.59% | 46.79% | D+3.8 | 36.57% | 55.59% | R+19 | R |
| 69 | 52.79% | 44.16% | D+8.6 | 40.88% | 51.15% | R+10.3 | R |
| 70 | 53.93% | 43.29% | D+10.6 | 42.30% | 49.47% | R+7.2 | R |
| 71 | 54.29% | 42.05% | D+12.2 | 39.51% | 52.35% | R+12.8 | R |
| 72 | 51.93% | 45.45% | D+6.5 | 34.53% | 56.78% | R+22.2 | R |
| 73 | 53.53% | 42.96% | D+10.6 | 37.43% | 53.69% | R+16.3 | R |
| 74 | 62.03% | 35.41% | D+26.6 | 42.38% | 49.51% | R+7.1 | D |
| 75 | 48.71% | 48.59% | D+0.1 | 33.59% | 60.03% | R+26.4 | R |
| 76 | 54.86% | 42.71% | D+12.2 | 44.90% | 48.25% | R+3.3 | R |
| 77 | 50.66% | 46.96% | D+3.7 | 39.35% | 52.33% | R+13 | R |
| 78 | 53.91% | 43.85% | D+10.1 | 42.60% | 49.76% | R+7.2 | D |
| 79 | 47.84% | 49.51% | R+1.7 | 35.30% | 57.05% | R+21.7 | R |
| 80 | 52.45% | 44.63% | D+7.8 | 36.64% | 55.48% | R+18.8 | R |
| 81 | 54.77% | 42.68% | D+12.1 | 47.50% | 44.64% | D+2.9 | D |
| 82 | 48.51% | 48.09% | D+0.4 | 34.29% | 57.59% | R+23.3 | I |
| 83 | 56.63% | 40.02% | D+16.6 | 47.31% | 44.95% | D+2.4 | D |
| 84 | 56.51% | 41.13% | D+15.4 | 49.40% | 43.45% | D+6 | D |
| 85 | 59.68% | 38.00% | D+21.7 | 50.35% | 41.91% | D+8.4 | D |
| 86 | 59.23% | 37.24% | D+22 | 49.50% | 42.73% | D+6.8 | R |
| 87 | 52.02% | 45.12% | D+6.9 | 40.62% | 52.15% | R+11.5 | R |
| 88 | 51.72% | 45.78% | D+5.9 | 39.27% | 53.65% | R+14.4 | R |
| 89 | 54.45% | 43.61% | D+10.8 | 51.10% | 41.67% | D+9.4 | R |
| 90 | 59.64% | 38.13% | D+21.5 | 56.53% | 37.50% | D+19 | D |
| 91 | 50.59% | 46.34% | D+4.2 | 40.13% | 53.06% | R+12.9 | R |
| 92 | 59.72% | 37.88% | D+21.8 | 52.61% | 41.62% | D+11 | D |
| 93 | 63.76% | 33.86% | D+29.9 | 56.36% | 36.44% | D+19.9 | D |
| 94 | 65.85% | 32.61% | D+33.2 | 67.70% | 27.26% | D+40.4 | I |
| 95 | 52.53% | 44.46% | D+8.1 | 43.05% | 50.09% | R+7 | R |
| 96 | 53.22% | 43.96% | D+9.3 | 46.09% | 45.62% | D+0.5 | D |
| 97 | 60.95% | 36.52% | D+24.4 | 57.61% | 35.28% | D+22.3 | D |
| 98 | 50.39% | 46.30% | D+4.1 | 40.80% | 51.21% | R+10.4 | R |
| 99 | 49.59% | 46.79% | D+2.8 | 38.95% | 51.81% | R+12.9 | R |
| 100 | 41.66% | 55.96% | R+14.3 | 30.51% | 62.28% | R+31.8 | R |
| 101 | 48.05% | 50.31% | R+2.3 | 42.68% | 49.76% | R+7.1 | R |
| 102 | 43.04% | 54.85% | R+11.8 | 32.72% | 60.41% | R+27.7 | R |
| 103 | 40.91% | 57.49% | R+16.6 | 31.01% | 62.88% | R+31.9 | R |
| 104 | 41.88% | 55.97% | R+14.1 | 29.63% | 63.01% | R+33.4 | R |
| 105 | 42.29% | 54.99% | R+12.7 | 28.06% | 64.26% | R+36.2 | R |
| 106 | 49.42% | 48.50% | D+0.9 | 33.92% | 58.24% | R+24.3 | R |
| 107 | 57.01% | 40.00% | D+17 | 41.97% | 51.07% | R+9.1 | D |
| 108 | 53.21% | 43.49% | D+9.7 | 38.84% | 53.47% | R+14.6 | R |
| 109 | 67.24% | 30.12% | D+37.1 | 58.40% | 33.72% | D+24.7 | D |
| 110 | 63.87% | 33.47% | D+30.4 | 54.37% | 37.58% | D+16.8 | D |
| 111 | 50.44% | 46.68% | D+3.8 | 36.86% | 56.60% | R+19.7 | R |
| 112 | 53.48% | 42.87% | D+10.6 | 37.66% | 52.96% | R+15.3 | R |
| 113 | 60.85% | 35.30% | D+25.5 | 48.50% | 41.70% | D+6.8 | R |
| 114 | 55.26% | 41.90% | D+13.4 | 38.76% | 52.49% | R+13.7 | R |
| 115 | 58.85% | 38.24% | D+20.6 | 38.90% | 52.27% | R+13.4 | D |
| 116 | 60.75% | 35.80% | D+24.9 | 35.54% | 54.38% | R+18.8 | R |
| 117 | 55.13% | 41.53% | D+13.6 | 43.57% | 47.95% | R+4.4 | R |
| 118 | 45.86% | 51.52% | R+5.7 | 31.81% | 61.90% | R+30.1 | R |
| 119 | 45.96% | 51.43% | R+5.5 | 32.24% | 61.04% | R+28.8 | R |
| 120 | 46.60% | 50.44% | R+3.8 | 35.73% | 56.84% | R+21.1 | R |
| 121 | 45.21% | 52.49% | R+7.3 | 34.05% | 59.30% | R+25.2 | D |
| 122 | 63.72% | 33.19% | D+30.5 | 53.84% | 37.36% | D+16.5 | D |
| 123 | 71.47% | 24.38% | D+47.1 | 64.13% | 26.92% | D+37.2 | D |
| 124 | 59.61% | 38.17% | D+21.4 | 55.14% | 36.96% | D+18.2 | D |
| 125 | 58.95% | 38.77% | D+20.2 | 53.33% | 38.99% | D+14.3 | D |
| 126 | 58.95% | 38.77% | D+20.2 | 53.33% | 38.99% | D+14.3 | D |
| 127 | 58.95% | 38.77% | D+20.2 | 53.33% | 38.99% | D+14.3 | D |
| 128 | 48.27% | 49.97% | R+1.7 | 42.23% | 50.10% | R+7.9 | R |
| 129 | 46.34% | 51.62% | R+5.3 | 38.68% | 53.96% | R+15.3 | R |
| 130 | 50.42% | 47.47% | D+2.9 | 38.87% | 53.71% | R+14.8 | R |
| 131 | 53.33% | 44.07% | D+9.3 | 44.62% | 48.28% | R+3.7 | R |
| 132 | 50.56% | 46.18% | D+4.4 | 43.40% | 48.98% | R+5.6 | D |
| 133 | 61.90% | 35.54% | D+26.4 | 58.29% | 34.81% | D+23.5 | D |
| 134 | 65.13% | 32.50% | D+32.6 | 56.99% | 36.58% | D+20.4 | D |
| 135 | 65.78% | 31.66% | D+34.1 | 65.51% | 28.90% | D+36.6 | D |
| 136 | 48.92% | 47.96% | D+1 | 38.51% | 53.59% | R+15.1 | R |
| 137 | 45.33% | 52.54% | R+7.2 | 32.99% | 60.19% | R+27.2 | R |
| 138 | 46.20% | 51.54% | R+5.3 | 33.60% | 59.26% | R+25.7 | D |
| 139 | 52.45% | 44.64% | D+7.8 | 42.77% | 50.10% | R+7.3 | R |
| 140 | 54.52% | 42.52% | D+12 | 42.09% | 50.96% | R+8.9 | D |
| 141 | 40.37% | 57.48% | R+17.1 | 25.45% | 68.33% | R+42.9 | R |
| 142 | 44.25% | 53.03% | R+8.8 | 30.36% | 63.04% | R+32.7 | R |
| 143 | 52.29% | 45.49% | D+6.8 | 37.41% | 56.99% | R+19.6 | D |
| 144 | 42.14% | 55.70% | R+13.6 | 30.93% | 63.59% | R+32.7 | R |
| 145 | 38.61% | 58.67% | R+20.1 | 24.60% | 69.65% | R+45 | R |
| 146 | 42.70% | 55.08% | R+12.4 | 31.90% | 62.06% | R+30.2 | R |
| 147 | 52.79% | 44.50% | D+8.3 | 42.10% | 49.42% | R+7.3 | R |
| 148 | 54.63% | 42.47% | D+12.2 | 40.30% | 53.21% | R+12.9 | D |
| 149 | 52.29% | 45.53% | D+6.8 | 40.55% | 52.79% | R+12.2 | R |
| 150 | 72.28% | 25.81% | D+46.5 | 51.67% | 42.92% | D+8.7 | D |
| 151 | 62.84% | 35.10% | D+27.7 | 43.90% | 50.45% | R+6.5 | D |
| Total | 56.44% | 41.10% | D+15.3 | 47.97% | 45.00% | D+3 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Maine's 2nd Congressional District the 219th most Republican nationally.[10]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[11]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[12] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[13] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden | Democratic Party | $5,382,793 | $5,344,641 | $130,861 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Daniel Fowler | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Timothy Hernandez | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Dale Crafts | Republican Party | $1,283,275 | $1,279,587 | $3,689 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Ranked-choice voting
Ranked-choice voting in Maine
Maine uses ranked-choice voting for all federal and state-level (e.g., governor, state senator, and state representative) primary elections. Ranked-choice voting is used in general elections for federal offices only (i.e., U.S. Congress and the presidency).[14]
Click here for information on the history of ranked-choice voting in Maine.
How ranked-choice voting works
Broadly speaking, the ranked-choice voting process unfolds as follows for single-winner elections:
- Voters rank the candidates for a given office by preference on their ballots.
- If a candidate wins an outright majority of first-preference votes (i.e., 50 percent plus one), he or she will be declared the winner.
- If, on the other hand, no candidates win an outright majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated.
- All first-preference votes for the failed candidate are eliminated, lifting the second-preference choices indicated on those ballots.
- A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won an outright majority of the adjusted voters.
- The process is repeated until a candidate wins a majority of votes cast.
Example
Assume that there are four candidates for mayor in a hypothetical city. The table below presents the raw first-preference vote totals for each candidate.
| Raw first-preference vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | First-preference votes | Percentage |
| Candidate A | 475 | 46.34% |
| Candidate B | 300 | 29.27% |
| Candidate C | 175 | 17.07% |
| Candidate D | 75 | 7.32% |
In the above scenario, no candidate won an outright majority of first-preference votes. As a result, the candidate (Candidate D) with the smallest number of first-preference votes is eliminated. The ballots that listed candidate D as the first preference are adjusted, raising their second-preference candidates. Assume that, of the 75 first-preference votes for Candidate D, 50 listed Candidate A as their second preference and 25 listed Candidate B. The adjusted vote totals would be as follows:
| Adjusted vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Adjusted first-preference votes | Percentage |
| Candidate A | 525 | 51.22% |
| Candidate B | 325 | 31.71% |
| Candidate C | 175 | 17.07% |
On the second tally, Candidate A secured 51.22 percent of the vote, thereby winning the election.
Note: The above is a simplified example used for illustrative purposes. Specific procedures vary by jurisdiction and according to the nature of the election (i.e., whether it is a single-winner or multi-winner contest).
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[15]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[16][17][18]
| Race ratings: Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Timeline
2020
District represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016
This district was one of 30 Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.
| 2020 Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Ran in 2020? | 2018 congressional margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2012 presidential margin | ||||||||
| Arizona's 1st | Tom O'Halleran |
Yes | Democrats+7.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+2.5 | ||||||||
| Georgia's 6th | Lucy McBath |
Yes | Democrats+1.0 | Trump+1.5 | Romney+23.3 | ||||||||
| Illinois' 14th | Lauren Underwood |
Yes | Democrats+5.0 | Trump+3.9 | Romney+10 | ||||||||
| Illinois' 17th | Cheri Bustos |
Yes | Democrats+24.2 | Trump+0.7 | Obama+17 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 1st | Abby Finkenauer |
Yes | Democrats+5.1 | Trump+3.5 | Obama+13.7 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 2nd | Dave Loebsack |
Retired | Democrats+5.2 | Trump+4.1 | Obama+13.1 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 3rd | Cindy Axne |
Yes | Democrats+2.2 | Trump+3.5 | Obama+4.2 | ||||||||
| Maine's 2nd | Jared Golden |
Yes | Democrats+1.3 | Trump+10.3 | Obama+8.6 | ||||||||
| Michigan's 8th | Elissa Slotkin |
Yes | Democrats+3.8 | Trump+6.7 | Romney+3.1 | ||||||||
| Michigan's 11th | Haley Stevens |
Yes | Democrats+6.7 | Trump+4.4 | Romney+5.4 | ||||||||
| Minnesota's 2nd | Angie Craig |
Yes | Democrats+5.5 | Trump+1.2 | Obama+0.1 | ||||||||
| Minnesota's 7th | Collin Peterson |
Yes | Democrats+4.3 | Trump+30.8 | Romney+9.8 | ||||||||
| Nevada's 3rd | Susie Lee |
Yes | Democrats+9.1 | Trump+1.0 | Obama+0.8 | ||||||||
| New Hampshire's 1st | Chris Pappas |
Yes | Democrats+8.6 | Trump+1.6 | Obama+1.6 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 3rd | Andrew Kim |
Yes | Democrats+1.3 | Trump+6.2 | Obama+4.6 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 5th | Josh Gottheimer |
Yes | Democrats+13.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+3.0 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 11th | Mikie Sherrill |
Yes | Democrats+14.6 | Trump+0.9 | Romney+5.8 | ||||||||
| New Mexico's 2nd | Xochitl Torres Small |
Yes | Democrats+1.9 | Trump+10.2 | Romney+6.8 | ||||||||
| New York's 11th | Max Rose |
Yes | Democrats+6.5 | Trump+9.8 | Obama+4.3 | ||||||||
| New York's 18th | Sean Maloney |
Yes | Democrats+10.9 | Trump+1.9 | Obama+4.3 | ||||||||
| New York's 19th | Antonio Delgado |
Yes | Democrats+5.2 | Trump+6.8 | Obama+6.2 | ||||||||
| New York's 22nd | Anthony Brindisi |
Yes | Democrats+1.8 | Trump+15.5 | Romney+0.4 | ||||||||
| Oklahoma's 5th | Kendra Horn |
Yes | Democrats+1.4 | Trump+13.4 | Romney+18.4 | ||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 8th | Matt Cartwright |
Yes | Democrats+9.3 | Trump+9.6 | Obama+11.9 | ||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 17th | Conor Lamb |
Yes | Democrats+12.5 | Trump+2.6 | Romney+4.5 | ||||||||
| South Carolina's 1st | Joe Cunningham |
Yes | Democrats+1.4 | Trump+13.1 | Romney+18.1 | ||||||||
| Utah's 4th | Ben McAdams |
Yes | Democrats+0.3 | Trump+6.7 | Romney+37.0 | ||||||||
| Virginia's 2nd | Elaine Luria |
Yes | Democrats+2.2 | Trump+3.4 | Romney+2.3 | ||||||||
| Virginia's 7th | Abigail Spanberger |
Yes | Democrats+1.9 | Trump+6.5 | Romney+10.5 | ||||||||
| Wisconsin's 3rd | Ron Kind |
Yes | Democrats+19.3 | Trump+4.5 | Obama+11 | ||||||||
| Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos | |||||||||||||
Click here to see the five U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Campaign ads
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Jared Golden
Supporting Golden
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District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Maine District 2
The ranked-choice voting election was won by Jared Golden in round 2 . The results of Round are displayed below. To see the results of other rounds, use the dropdown menu above to select a round and the table will update.
|
Total votes: 289,624 |
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| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Dennis O'Connor (Independent)
- Danielle VanHelsing (Independent)
- Henry John Bear (G)
2016
Maine's 2nd Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R) defeated former state Sen. Emily Cain (D) and Jay Parker Dresser (Write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Poliquin defeated Cain in 2014 to win election to the seat. Neither candidate faced a primary challenger on June 14, 2016.[19][20][21]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Bruce Poliquin Incumbent |
54.8% | 192,878 | |
| Democratic | Emily Ann Cain | 45.2% | 159,081 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 224 | |
| Total Votes | 352,183 | |||
| Source: Maine Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The 2nd Congressional District of Maine held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Bruce Poliquin (R) defeated Emily Cain (D) and Blaine Richardson (I) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Emily Cain | 40.2% | 118,568 | |
| Republican | Bruce Poliquin |
45.2% | 133,320 | |
| Independent | Blaine Richardson | 10.6% | 31,337 | |
| Other | Other | 0.1% | 248 | |
| Blank | None | 3.9% | 11,536 | |
| Total Votes | 295,009 | |||
| Source: Maine Secretary of State Official Results | ||||
2012
On November 6, 2012, Mike Michaud (D) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Kevin Raye in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mike Michaud Incumbent |
55.7% | 191,456 | |
| Republican | Kevin Raye | 40% | 137,542 | |
| N/A | Blank Votes | 4.3% | 14,910 | |
| Total Votes | 343,908 | |||
| Source: Maine Secretary of State "Tabulations for Elections held in 2012" | ||||
2010
On November 2, 2010, Mike Michaud won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Jason Levesque (R) in the general election.[22]
| U.S. House, Maine District 2 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Mike Michaud incumbent |
55.1% | 147,042 | |
| Republican | Jason J. Levesque | 44.9% | 119,669 | |
| Total Votes | 266,711 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Daily Kos, ""Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008,"" accessed June 24, 2020
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Siena College Research Institute, "ME0902 Crosstabs," accessed Sept. 29, 2020
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 The Cook Political Report, "2020 House Race Ratings," Sept. 18, 2020
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Left of Center PAC, "Maine CD 02," accessed Sept. 14, 2020
- ↑ Don't know/Refused
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Maine," accessed June 1, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Maine.gov, "Ranked-choice Voting (RCV)," accessed February 24, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Centralmaine.com, "Cain seeks 2016 rematch for Maine’s 2nd District seat," March 3, 2015
- ↑ Bangor Daily News, "Bangor City Councilor Joe Baldacci to run for US House seat," July 29, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
