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2016: A tale of two conventions
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
This page was current as of the 2016 election.
July 28, 2016
By Jim Barnes
Hillary Clinton formally accepted the Democratic presidential nomination in the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia Thursday night, concluding this year’s pair of Democratic and Republican national conventions, which reflected the starkly different moods of America’s two major political parties.
For Democrats, the City of Brotherly Love—notwithstanding the catharsis that many supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were going through—was just that. At times, it seemed as if the convention was one big happy embrace. On the other hand, in Cleveland, it felt like the Republicans often wanted to distance themselves from one another and their past.
While boos rained down from Bernie supporters in the Wells Fargo arena during the opening day of the convention at almost every reference to Clinton, when Sanders addressed the Democratic delegates at the end of the night, he praised his rival for the nomination and unequivocally called on his supporters to vote for Clinton in November. The next day, Karen Finney, senior adviser to Hillary for America, described Sanders’ speech as a “full-throated endorsement.”
By contrast, when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the runner-up to Trump for the GOP nomination, addressed the Republican convention, he called on his supporters to vote their “conscience” in the general election. His failure to endorse Trump brought calls of “honor your pledge” from angry Republican delegates, and he was practically jeered off the stage in the Quicken Loans Arena. In an unusual move, the day after the Republican convention closed, Trump said he didn’t want Cruz’s endorsement anyway and threatened to form a super PAC to oppose Cruz’s re-election. Normally, Republican presidential nominees want to unify their party at a convention. And Trump will need the votes of Cruz supporters if he’s going to beat Clinton.
On Wednesday night, President Barack Obama addressed the Democratic convention and devoted most of this speech to making the case for Clinton’s election. Oftentimes, when presidents speak to the final national party convention while in office, they are often tempted to dwell on their own accomplishments rather than the qualifications of their potential successor. And why not? It’s the last time they’ll be standing before a convention as a sitting president where delegates are primed and eager to applaud every one of the incumbent’s accomplishments. Obama did a little victory lap, but his speech was clearly focused on Clinton’s election. Indeed, when Bill Clinton gave his swan song convention speech as president in 2000, he dwelled more on his achievements than the need to elect Al Gore.
Likewise, Democratic leaders in Congress offered repeated praise from the convention podium for their 2016 presidential nominee, while GOP congressional leaders in Cleveland sometimes almost seemed to ignore Trump. For instance, on the Democratic convention’s closing night, House Minority Leader California Rep. Nancy Pelosi mentioned the 2016 Democratic nominee’s name six times in her brief remarks, extolling Clinton’s virtues. By contrast, when House Majority Leader California Rep. Kevin McCarthy addressed the Cleveland convention, he uttered Donald Trump’s name just once—at the end of his remarks: “Together, by electing a Republican Congress, Donald Trump and Mike Pence, we can build a better America and make that shining city upon the hill bright again.”
Of course, many Republican senators and governors were just AWOL from the GOP confab in Cleveland, seeing little political benefit from participating in a Trump convention. In Philadelphia, it seemed like you couldn’t swing a Clinton campaign placard inside the Wells Fargo Center without hitting a Democratic pol. Hosting Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf got a prime-time speaking slot on the closing night of his party’s convention and declared, “We need Hillary Clinton!” Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich, who has refused to endorse Trump, never even entered the Quicken Loans Arena.
Pelosi also wasn’t shy about praising Obama, calling him “one of the greatest presidents in American history.” In Cleveland, past Republican presidents, who normally merit at least a few salutes from convention speakers, seemed more like discredited Soviet commissars who were edited out of Communist Party literature and history during the purges of Joseph Stalin. On the opening night in Cleveland, the time when Republicans normally revere their past leaders, even Ronald Reagan’s name wasn't uttered until 10:20 p.m., when former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani referenced him. And the two living Republican presidents whose last name is Bush? They were non-entities in Cleveland. That’s not surprising since the third Bush who sought the White House, Jeb, former governor of Florida, was trounced by Trump in the GOP nominating contest this year and has also refused to back the New York developer in the fall.
One can easily imagine that if Republicans had nominated another Bush this year, or any other of the establishment-friendly GOP contenders—such as Kasich, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie—the Republican convention could well have looked and felt quite different. But when a party nominates an insurgent like Trump, you can get a very different convention from past events.
Even with the dissonance and discord in Cleveland, Clinton and the Democrats can’t take this general election for granted. Democratic National Committee interim chairwoman Donna Brazile told Ballotpedia that Clinton’s challenges in the general election were to “be authentic and not allow herself to be reacting to Donald Trump every day.” Exasperated by Wednesday’s example of Trump capturing the media’s attention in Philadelphia with his hope that Russia could turn up some of Clinton’s deleted personal emails, remarks that Trump later said were “sarcastic,” Brazile observed, “Even when he makes no sense, everyone covers him as if he’s making news.” The DNC chief added that Clinton also “has to grow the electorate.”
One key element in that regard is making sure the Sanders voters come home in the general election. Democrats are hopeful that most of the Vermont senator’s supporters will eventually back Clinton. “In the end, I think the Bernie people are going to conclude that Donald Trump is so far away from the things they care about and believe in that supporting him is impossible,” said Tad Devine, a senior adviser to the Sanders campaign.
Harold Ickes, a longtime political confidant of Hillary and Bill Clinton, concurred with Devine’s analysis. “As this campaign shapes up as a contest between Hillary Clinton, a genuine progressive juxtaposed against Donald Trump, as people become engaged, my sense is a vast, vast majority [of Sanders supporters] will vote for Hillary Clinton,” echoed Ickes. Ickes, a veteran of many Democratic conventions, explained that it’s normal for supporters of losing candidates to take a while to come around to supporting the party’s nominee. “The hurdle is really letting the heartbreak subside and as Hillary gets out there and makes the case as the Democratic Party’s progressive candidate and we’re not talking about intra-party squabbles but these important issues, I think that hurdle can be easily overcome by most.”
The Republican convention in Cleveland hit relatively few home runs, although Trump’s children turned out to be better advocates for their father than many political observers expected. Nevertheless, post-GOP convention public opinion polls showed the Republican nominee moving into a statistical tie with his Democratic opponent.
“Trump got a little bounce, but I’m in a wait-and-see mood,” said public opinion expert Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank in Washington, D.C. “I think we should look closely at the polls again in mid-to-late August.”
If Clinton doesn’t get a significant bounce in the polls from what was arguably a superior convention in Philadelphia, the country could be in for a very competitive presidential race.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer at Ballotpedia who has covered every Democratic and Republican national convention since 1984. He is in Cleveland and Philadelphia for Ballotpedia in July. Contact media@ballotpedia.org with interview inquiries.
See also
- Republican National Convention, 2016
- Republican National Committee
- Democratic National Committee
- Democratic National Convention, 2016
