Ballotpedia's Top 10 Republican primaries, August 16, 2018

These 10 Republican Party primaries are the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

There were no new additions to our Top 10 Republican primaries list this week, although two of the races on this list were decided. On August 14, incumbent governor Jeff Colyer conceded the Republican primary for the state's top office to Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. After all precincts reported results on August 7, Kobach led Colyer by less than 200 votes with thousands of provisional ballots uncounted. As of the concession, Kobach led by a 312-vote margin. This result is meaningful for Republican prospects for holding the governor’s mansion in Kansas, which has not elected consecutive members of the same party to the state’s top job since 1964. Former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) won successive terms to that office in 2010 and 2014.

In Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, 2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn defeated state Sen. Carla Nelson in the Republican primary. Although the district went for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 points, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz (D) held on to the seat by less than a percentage point. Walz elected to run for governor this cycle. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat. Hagedorn will face former Obama administration official Dan Feehan (D) in the general election.

Two top primaries, for Arizona Senate and Florida governor, will take place on August 28. As of August 16, 2018, this list contains primaries for four U.S House seats, three U.S Senate seats, and three gubernatorial races. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to read our Top 10 Democratic Party primaries list.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: August 16, 2018

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Top 10 Republican Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Arizona Senate (August 28)
2. (3) South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)
3. (4) Florida governor (August 28)
4. (2) Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
5. (5) Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)
6. (6) Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)
7. (9) Kansas governor (August 7)
8. (7) Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)
9. (9) West Virginia Senate (May 8)
10. (10) Montana Senate (June 5)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

None

Top 10 Republican Primaries race summaries

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R), U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R), and former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) are in a three-way battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona, a toss-up seat critical to Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate. The incumbent, Sen. Jeff Flake (R), announced in October 2017 that he would not seek re-election. All three Republican candidates have expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. The two primary ideological battlegrounds in the race are immigration policy and support for the Trump administration's agenda.

In addition to leading in polls released in June and July by an average of 8 points, McSally is supported by party leaders and big donors. DefendArizona has already reserved $5 million in ad time for the general election for McSally and the Senate Leadership Fund could become involved in the state again—the organization spent five figures on an online campaign against Ward in 2017—to help secure McSally's victory. Ward is aligned with Trump’s immigration policy, penning an editorial in the Washington Examiner supporting the administration's zero-tolerance policy and separations, as required under the law. She noted that she also opposed amnesty. Arpaio, who has his own conservative base of followers, has also emphasized his support for the president. Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory. Arpaio also wants to take his strict position on immigration enforcement to Washington, D.C.

Two June polls found that at least 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona were undecided in this race at that time. Ratings outlets characterized the general election as a Toss-up. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is the likely candidate awaiting the winner of this primary, seeking to become the first Democrat to occupy a U.S. Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years.

• South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford became the second Republican member of the U.S. House to lose his primary in 2018 after he was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington by a four percent margin in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Support for President Donald Trump (R) was one of the defining issues of the race. Sanford had been critical of Trump's rhetoric and policies, including Trump's policies on tariffs and trade, and Arrington used those comments as part of her campaigning strategy in the primary. Arrington was endorsed by Trump just hours before polls closed on June 12.

In his concession speech, Sanford said he didn't regret his positions regarding Trump: "It may have cost me an election in this case, but I stand by every one of those decisions to disagree with the president." The risks of opposing Trump were evident to other Republicans after Sanford's loss. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said, "I think it's quite obvious that people don't like, you know, when somebody's overly critical of the President. I thought Mark was very principled. But you know, it will be interesting to see what it comes down to ultimately." Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) stated that perhaps the issue was Sanford's criticism being so public, "I have some differences with the way we're handling tariffs, but I haven't gone out and aired those differences to the media first. I go to the White House, and there's been an open door and a dialogue going on." Outgoing Arizona Sen. Flake, who had also criticized the president publicly, stated, "This is Trump's party. We've all felt it. It was reiterated last night. If you want to win a Republican primary, you can't deviate much from the script. It's the President's script. You can't criticize policy or behavior."

• Georgia governor (May 22) and runoff (July 24)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary) and Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (July 24 Republican primary runoff)

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp were the top-two finishers in a five-candidate Republican primary on May 22. Cagle led the field with 39 percent of the vote and Kemp was second with 25.5 percent. Because no candidate reached 50 percent, the two will face off in a July 24 runoff. Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. According to Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle decided that he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote. The candidates attacked each other over policy disputes, personal ethics, and professional competence.

Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 Republican runoff for Georgia's governorship, receiving 69 percent of the vote. President Donald Trump endorsed Kemp on July 18, and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for him on July 21. The three Republican candidates who did not advance from the May 22 Republican primary—Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams—also endorsed Kemp. Term-limited incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Cagle on July 16, saying he was the best candidate to continue his legacy as governor. Cagle argued he was the only candidate who could beat Abrams in the general election.Kemp faced former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election to replace Deal. Abrams is the first female gubernatorial nominee in Georgia history and the first black female gubernatorial nominee in U.S. history.

Cagle aired campaign ads drawing attention to Kemp’s record and calling him incompetent. Cagle said Kemp was responsible for the accidental release of Georgia voter data to media outlets in 2015, did not repay loans he guaranteed for an agricultural company, accepted illegal campaign contributions from businesses he regulated, and was not a vocal supporter of Donald Trump in 2016. Before the May primary, Cagle primarily emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and plans to cut taxes and create jobs. Kemp criticized Cagle after Clay Tippins, one of the candidates defeated in the May 22 primary, released a secretly-recorded conversation with Cagle. In the recording, Cagle said he pushed for passage of an education bill he opposed to reduce the chance fellow candidate Hunter Hill (R) would receive financial support from a pro-school choice group. Kemp also said that Cagle was mostly funded by special interest groups and lobbyists, improperly used a state airplane at taxpayer expense, and would try to legalize casino gambling if elected governor. During the primary campaign, Kemp said he wanted to put Georgia's focus on the needs of the rural parts of the state rather than metro Atlanta, and his ads emphasized his positions on immigration and gun policy.

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Republican primary)

The two leading contenders for the Republican nomination for governor in this large swing state adopted different campaign approaches and targeted two different segments of the expected primary electorate. Current incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R) is term-limited and is running for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Ron DeSantis has represented Florida's 6th Congressional District, which includes St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, since the 2012 election. President Trump (R), who carried the state by an 18 percent margin in the 2016 presidential primary, endorsed DeSantis in December 2017. His other backers included Sean Hannity and Reps. Matt Gaetz (R) and Travis Cummings (R). Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam was first elected to that post in 2010 after serving five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and two in the Florida House of Representatives. In the race's early days, Putnam was seen by local political observers as a likely frontrunner. On the campaign trail, Putnam has emphasized his connections to the state, saying that he is a fifth-generation Floridian who knows the state well. He was endorsed by state House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R) and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The two differed on their preferred strategy to manage algae blooms on the state's west coast. DeSantis called for the construction of water storage facilities south of Lake Okeechobee, the provisioning of water to the Everglades and Florida Bay, and an increased rate of conversion from septic to sewer-based waste management. Putnam stated his support for the construction of water storage facilities north of Lake Okeechobee, support for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' reservoir projects to the west and east of the lake, and a project to reduce the number of leaking septic tanks. The two also differed on style; DeSantis charged Putnam with supporting sugar industry interests and said that he had spent too much time in elected office, calling him "a career politician … who will say or do anything to get elected." Putnam accused DeSantis of lacking knowledge of the issues, comparing his campaign to the sitcom Seinfeld: "The campaign is being run out of a studio, they have a smattering of celebrity guest appearances, and it’s all about nothing. But, unlike Seinfeld, it’s not funny."

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Balderson led O'Connor by less than one percentage point (1,800 votes) with more than 8,000 absentee and provisional ballots outstanding. While The Columbus Dispatch called the race for Balderson, the AP declined to make a call before the provisional ballots have been counted. Ohio law requires automatic recounts for congressional elections in which the margin of victory is less than 0.5 percent of votes cast.

• Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)

See also Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)

In his fourth attempt for the seat, 2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn defeated state Sen. Carla Nelson in the Republican primary for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. Although the district went for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 points, the Democratic incumbent held on to his seat by less than a percentage point. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat. Hagedorn will face former Obama administration official Dan Feehan (D) in the general election.

Hagedorn lost to incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D) by less than 2,500 votes in 2016, and Walz elected to run for governor this cycle. Hagedorn compared himself to Reps. John Kline (R-Minn.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who each ran three or more times before being elected in the state. He aligned himself with Trump and emphasized the farming economy, energy, and national security in his campaign. He also earned the district party’s endorsements at its convention in April.

Nelson, who had served in the state Senate since 2011, was endorsed by the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List and reportedly encouraged to run for the seat by national party leaders. State party officials were less supportive, concerned they could lose control of the state Senate if a special election was called to fill her seat in a toss-up district. Nelson's campaign has focused on healthcare, the federal budget, and education policies. Andrew Candler (R) and Steve Williams (R) also ran for the seat.

• Kansas governor (August 7)

See also: Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 7 Republican primary)

In his bid for a first full term after succeeding former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in January2018, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) faced six challengers in the August Republican primary. He and top challenger Kris Kobach, Kansas' secretary of state, presented voters with both policy and style differences against the backdrop of two significant events from 2017: the state legislature's reversal of several tax cuts enacted by Brownback in 2012 and the Kansas Supreme Court's ruling that the state's school financing formula was unconstitutional. Kobach spoke out against the 2017 tax cut repeal. He argued that the Brownback administration (including Colyer) erred in reducing taxes without sufficiently reducing spending. Colyer's campaign said that he would consider signing legislation to reduce taxes if brought to his desk and that, as lieutenant governor, he reduced spending while increasing services within the state's Medicaid system.

Formerly Brownback's lieutenant governor, Colyer became governor after Brownback's confirmation as U.S. ambassador at-large for international religious freedom. Colyer highlighted his experience in the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations, while Kobach touted his ties to Donald Trump, including an endorsement from Donald Trump Jr., who campaigned on Kobach's behalf.

Over 300,000 votes were cast among the seven candidates in the Republican primary. After all precincts reported results on August 7, Kobach led Colyer by less than 200 votes, with thousands of provisional ballots still uncounted. On August 14, 2018, Colyer conceded to Kobach. As of the concession, Kobach led Colyer by a 312-vote margin. The Republican primary winner will face Democratic state Senator Laura Kelly and independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election.

• Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)

See also Michigan's 11th Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Republican primary)

Michigan Republicans chose businesswoman Lena Epstein on August 7 to defend the suburban Detroit seat being vacated by David Trott (R). Epstein finished first in the five-candidate field with almost 31 percent of the vote. Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski was second and state Sen. Mike Kowall came in third. Donald Trump (R) and Mitt Romney (R) carried the district in 2016 and 2012, respectively, but Barack Obama won here in 2008, and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November. Epstein was the top fundraiser, bringing in more than $1.6 million through contributions and self-funding. She was a co-chair of Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign and emphasized her opposition to DACA recipients receiving a pathway to citizenship as well as her support for repealing the Affordable Care Act and maintaining the U.S.-Israeli relationship.

Raczkowski said he would be an accessible congressman for his constituents and held nearly 60 townhalls while on the campaign trail. Kowall received the most endorsements and was the choice of the local Republican establishment according to the Detroit Free Press. He also supported limiting Russian economic expansion and criticized Trump for calling Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "weak" after the June 2018 G-7 Summit.

State Rep. Klint Kesto, the second-highest fundraiser, finished fourth. He headed up the state House's effort to respond to revelations that Dr. Larry Nassar sexually abused hundreds of gymnasts while working at Michigan State University. Kerry Bentivolio, who represented the 11st District for one term before being defeated by Trott in a Republican primary, was fifth with 11 percent. He said he was an effective representative and wanted to bring a common person's voice to Congress.

• West Virginia Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in West Virginia (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated coal mining executive Don Blankenship (R), Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), and three other candidates for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia. Morrisey received 35 percent of the vote, while Jenkins finished second with 29 percent, and Blankenship was third with 20 percent. The top three candidates all touted their support of Trump and alignment with the President's agenda.

Satellite groups spent more than $4 million on the race, including Mountain Families PAC and Duty and Country PAC, which have ties to the Republican and Democratic national parties, respectively. Blankenship, who served a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards, spent more than $3 million of his own money in the race.

Republicans considered the Senate race in West Virginia one of the party’s best opportunities to change a seat from Democratic to Republican control. Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election here by 42 points—the largest margin of victory in any state. Morrisey, who unseated five-term incumbent state attorney general Darrell McGraw (D) in 2012, faced Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November.

• Montana Senate (June 5)

See also: United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP Senate nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in November. Rosendale was backed by several prominent conservatives, including the Club for Growth, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Former state judge Russ Fagg, who billed himself as a center-right Republican with deep ties to the state, finished second in the primary. Fagg had endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens, and said his pragmatism and state ties made him the most electable candidate. Also running were Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman, and state Sen. Albert Olszewski, who finished third and fourth, respectively.

Although the candidates generally focused on Tester rather than each other for much of the primary, Fagg attacked Rosendale for moving to Montana from Maryland to start a political career and criticized him for opposing the death penalty and being endorsed by Steve Bannon. The Club for Growth countered those attacks by spending over $1 million attacking Fagg. Rosendale also said his support from national conservatives made him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester. Tester is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents after Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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