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United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Montana
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
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General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 12, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jon Tester (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Montana
U.S. Senate • At-large
Montana elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP Senate nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in November 2018.

The race’s main conflict was between Rosendale, backed by several national conservative influencers, and former state judge Russ Fagg, who billed himself as a center-right Republican with deep ties to the state.

Also running were Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman, and state Sen. Albert Olszewski.

Although the candidates focused on Tester rather than each other for much of the primary, Fagg began attacking Rosendale in April. Fagg said Rosendale moved to Montana from Maryland to start a political career and criticized him for opposing the death penalty and being endorsed by Steve Bannon.[3]

The Club for Growth, which endorsed Rosendale, answered Fagg’s attacks by spending over $1 million attacking him—more than the $600,000 it spent promoting Rosendale.

Rosendale also had endorsements from U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) as well as the Senate Conservatives Fund. Rosendale said this national network makes him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester.[4]

Fagg had endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens. He said his pragmatism and state ties made him the most electable candidate.[5]

Downing trailed Fagg and Rosendale in endorsements, but the $1.1 million he loaned his campaign made him the fundraising leader. Downing aired TV ads touting his support for President Trump, who won Montana by 20 points in 2016. In late May, the Club for Growth launched a negative campaign against him as well.

Election forecasters gave Tester a slight edge to hold the seat.


Montana voter? Here's what you need to know.
Primary electionJune 5, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 12, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 7, 2018 (regular registration), June 5, 2018 (late registration)[6]
Absentee application deadlineJune 4, 2018 (12pm MT)[6]
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Matt Rosendale defeated Russell C. Fagg, Troy Downing, and Albert Olszewski in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 5, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale
 
33.8
 
51,859
Image of Russell C. Fagg
Russell C. Fagg
 
28.3
 
43,465
Image of Troy Downing
Troy Downing
 
19.1
 
29,341
Image of Albert Olszewski
Albert Olszewski
 
18.7
 
28,681

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 153,346
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

Troy Downing.PNG

Troy Downing (R)
Businessman


Campaign website Facebook Twitter

A businessman in the commercial real estate business, Troy Downing led the field in fundraising after loaning his campaign $1.1 million. He was endorsed by state Rep. Jimmy Patelis (R) and was also supported by former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and Lola Zinke, the wife of U.S. Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. representative from Montana Ryan Zinke. His campaign website emphasizes his opposition to firearms restrictions and his support for decreasing taxes and increasing public access to land for recreational purposes. He said his record as a job creator—as opposed to time in elected office—made him the candidate best-suited to take on Tester.[3]

After declaring his candidacy, Downing's campaign faced questions about whether he resided in Montana. He was cited by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks for allegedly obtaining hunting licenses without residency in the state. "It's unfortunate the liberal Montana FWP deep state is on a witch hunt," he said in response to the citations.[7] His trial for the citations was set for May 23, 2018, but was later delayed until July 25.[8][9]

Downing also faced questions about his support for President Donald Trump. During the 2016 presidential campaign, he sent out tweets indicating he was opposed to Trump's candidacy. After the election, he said he had changed his mind and thought Trump's presidency would improve the economy and national security.[10]

Downing joined the United States Air Force after the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and was deployed to Afghanistan on two occasions. Before that, he worked in education and research and founded a technology startup company that was later acquired by Yahoo! He has served on the board of Warriors and Quiet Waters Foundation, an organization that assists veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.[11]


Russell-C-Fagg.png

Russ Fagg (R)
Former judge and state representative


Campaign website Facebook Twitter

A former state representative and judge on the 13th District Court, Russell "Russ" Fagg ran for Senate on his self-described reputation as “center-right, a pragmatic conservative, a fiscal conservative” and a "business Republican."[5] He argued that this reputation and connections to the state would make him the most electable general election candidate against Sen. Tester. He also said that while he generally supported Trump, he would "disagree with this president when it's not in Montana's best interest."[12] He received endorsements from three former Montana governors and two former U.S. representatives from the state.

When announcing his campaign, Fagg mentioned his focus on jobs in the state and his opposition to Sen. Tester's votes for restrictions on firearms. His campaign slogan was Jobs First, Montana Forever.[13] In April 2018, he began shifting his campaign toward emphasizing his ties to the state and criticizing Rosendale for moving in from Maryland.

Fagg served for two terms in the Montana House of Representatives and was elected as a judge on the 13th District Court in 1995. He served in that position until October 2017, when he resigned in order to run for Senate. Fagg previously worked as an attorney, clerked for the Montana Supreme Court, and served as the Deputy Yellowstone County Attorney. He was raised in Billings, Montana.

Albert Olszewski portrait.jpg

Albert Olszewski (R)
State senator



Campaign website Facebook Twitter

A state legislator since 2014, Albert "Al" Olszewski ran for the Senate with the promise of opposing Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Citing McConnell's work on a budget deal in early 2018 that boosted spending levels, Olszewski wrote, "Now is the time to repeal Senator Mitch McConnell as the Senate Majority Leader and replace him with a true leader who will fight for America."[14] Olszewski loaned his campaign $100,000. He received the support of Judge Ed Sperry of Stevensville, Montana, and Gregg Trude, the executive director of Right to Life Montana.[15] When candidate Ronald Murray withdrew from the race, he endorsed Olszewski.[16]

Olszewski argued that his longtime family ties to the state of Montana would make him competitive against Sen. Tester in the general election. Tester has used similar themes in past campaigns. Olszewski also said that his voting record would allow Montanans to see where he stood on the issues.[3]

Olszewski was elected to the state Senate in 2016 after having been elected to the state House in 2014. Before that, he ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2012. His professional experience includes working as an orthopedic surgeon. He served for 10 years in the United States Air Force after graduating from medical school. He was raised in Great Falls, Montana.[17]

Matt Rosendale.PNG

Matt Rosendale (R)
State auditor and former state legislator


Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Montana's state auditor and the former majority leader of the state Senate, Matt Rosendale ran for Congress with the support of U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Mike Lee and organizations like the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. He was second in fundraising in the Republican primary and received satellite spending support from the Club for Growth. Rosendale argued that his national support from conservative figures and groups made him the most likely Republican to defeat Sen. Tester in the general election.

Paul and Cruz both released statements in support of Rosendale and indicated that he would likely act similar to them in the U.S. Senate by occasionally departing from the rest of the party on issues like the debt ceiling. “Matt Rosendale has fought hard to shrink government and preserve liberty for Montana residents, during his time in the state legislature and more recently as a state auditor. It’s time to let Matt take that fight to Washington, we need strong conservative reinforcements in the Senate,” Cruz said in a press release.[18]

“The people of Montana want to send me to Washington, not to bring home the bacon, but to slaughter the hog,” Rosendale told Breitbart News when speaking on how he would act in the Senate. He was specifically referring to his opposition to omnibus spending bills that combine multiple appropriations bills into a single package.[19]

Before being elected as state auditor in 2016, Rosendale served in the Montana State Senate from 2012 to 2016 and in the Montana House of Representatives from 2010 to 2012. He served as state Senate majority leader from 2015 to 2016. He has also worked as a rancher and as a real estate professional in Maryland.


Election updates

Endorsements

  • April 24, 2018: Troy Downing's campaign announced that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn would campaign for him. Flynn later cancelled the appearance, citing a family emergency.[20]

Polling

  • April 18, 2018: Polling from WPA Intelligence paid for by the Matt Rosendale-aligned Club for Growth found Rosendale leading the field with 40 percent of the vote. He was followed by Fagg (17 percent), Downing (12 percent), and Olszewski (8 percent). Twenty-three percent of Republican voters were undecided.

Satellite spending

  • May 30, 2018: The Club for Growth spent $50,000 opposing Troy Downing.
  • May 30, 2018: The Protect Freedom Political Action Committee disclosed $100,000 in spending to support Matt Rosendale.
  • May 25, 2018: The Club for Growth disclosed about $280,000 in spending opposing Russ Fagg, bringing the total amount it had spent opposing his campaign to more than $910,000.

Candidate forums

Campaign finance

  • May 16, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018, showed the following:
    • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.44 million and had about $73,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1.1 million total.
    • Matt Rosendale had raised nearly $1.3 million and had about $390,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Russ Fagg had raised more than $1 million and had about $360,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from the first quarter of 2018 showed the following:
    • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.3 million and had almost $100,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1 million.
    • Matt Rosendale had raised over $1 million and had about $540,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Russ Fagg had raised about $930,000 and had about $630,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Al Olszewski had raised about $230,000 and had almost $50,000 in cash-on-hand.

Timeline

  • May 30, 2018: The Protect Freedom Political Action Committee disclosed $100,000 in spending to support Matt Rosendale.
  • May 30, 2018: The Club for Growth spent $50,000 opposing Troy Downing.
  • May 25, 2018: Principles First PAC announced a $50,000 television ad buy opposing Matt Rosendale.
  • May 25, 2018: The Club for Growth disclosed about $280,000 in spending opposing Russ Fagg, bringing the total amount it had spent opposing his campaign to more than $910,000.
  • May 16, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018, showed the following:
    • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.44 million and had about $73,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1.1 million total.
    • Matt Rosendale had raised nearly $1.3 million and had about $390,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Russ Fagg had raised more than $1 million and had about $360,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • May 3, 2018: The Club for Growth released television and digital ads supporting Matt Rosendale.
  • April 26, 2018: The candidates met in Bozeman for a forum. See full coverage from the Associated Press and the Independent Record.
  • April 24, 2018: The candidates met in Billings for a forum. See full coverage from the Independent Record.
  • April 24, 2018: Troy Downing's campaign announced that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn would campaign for him. Flynn later cancelled the appearance, citing a family emergency.[20]
  • April 18, 2018: Polling from WPA Intelligence paid for by the Matt Rosendale-aligned Club for Growth found Rosendale leading the field the field with 40 percent of the vote. He was followed by Fagg (17 percent), Downing (12 percent), and Olszewski (eight percent). Twenty-three percent of Republican voters were undecided.
  • April 18, 2018: The candidates met in Missoula for a forum. See full coverage from The Independent Record.
  • March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from the first quarter of 2018 showed the following:
    • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.3 million and had almost $100,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1 million.
    • Matt Rosendale had raised over $1 million and had about $540,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Russ Fagg had raised about $930,000 and had about $630,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Al Olszewski had raised about $230,000 and had almost $50,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • March 28, 2018: The candidates met in Missoula for a debate. See full coverage of the debate from The Missoulian and The Missoula Current.
  • March 23, 2018: Restoration PAC made a $50,000 ad buy supporting Matt Rosendale and opposing Jon Tester.
  • February 7, 2018: A poll from WPA Intelligence found that 49 percent of voters were undecided in the race. Rosendale led the candidates with 28 percent of the vote. He was followed by Downing with 12 percent and Fagg with 11 percent.
  • January 31, 2018: Campaign finance reports show that while businessman Troy Downing had the most campaign receipts in 2017, Rosendale and former state Rep. Russell C. Fagg had more cash on hand entering 2018.
  • January 29, 2018: U.S. Sen. Rand Paul endorsed Rosendale.
  • December 7, 2017: U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) endorsed Rosendale.
  • October 18, 2017: Former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon endorsed State Auditor Matt Rosendale in the the primary.


Satellite spending

  • Americas PAC had spent more than $585,000 supporting Matt Rosendale as of May 22, 2018. Republican donor Richard Uihlein provided funding for the organization.[21][22]
  • Club for Growth had spent about $595,000 supporting Rosendale, more than $1.14 million opposing Russ Fagg, and more than $50,000 opposing Troy Downing as of May 30.[22]
  • FreedomWorks spent $5,000 supporting Matt Rosendale.[22]
  • Gun Owners of America spent more than $12,000 supporting Matt Rosendale.[22]
  • Principles First PAC put $50,000 behind a negative television ad opposing Matt Rosendale on May 25.[23]
  • Protect Freedom Political Action Committee, a group allied with Rosendale supporter Rand Paul, disclosed $100,000 in spending to support Rosendale on May 30.[22][24]
  • Restoration PAC, a super PAC backed by Republican donor Richard Uihlein, had spent about $535,000 supporting Matt Rosendale as of May 30.[22]

Endorsements

Know of an endorsement? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Downing Fagg Olszewski Rosendale
Federal officials
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)[25] December 7, 2017 ✔
U.S. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah)[25] December 7, 2017 ✔
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)[26] January 29, 2018 ✔
Former federal officials
Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn[27] April 24, 2018 ✔
Former Vice President Dan Quayle (R)[28] March 9, 2018 ✔
Former Rep. Rick Hill (R-Mont.)[29] Unknown ✔
Former Rep. Danny Rehberg (R-Mont.)[29] Unknown ✔
John Bolton, former UN ambassador[4] Unknown ✔
Former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon[25] October 18, 2017 ✔
State officials
Former Montana Gov. Judy Martz (R)[29] Unknown ✔
Former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)[29] Unknown ✔
Former Montana Gov. Stan Stephens (R)[29] Unknown ✔
State Rep. Nancy Ballance[30] Unknown ✔
State Rep. Daniel Zolnikov[31] Unknown ✔
Montana House Speaker Austin Knudsen[32] Unknown ✔
State Sen. Duane Ankney[33] Unknown ✔
State Sen. Steve Fitzpatrick[33] Unknown ✔
State Sen. Brian Hoven[33] Unknown ✔
State Sen. Doug Kary[33] Unknown ✔
State Rep. Jimmy Patelis[34] Unknown ✔
Organizations
Gun Owners of America[35] Unknown ✔
Great America Alliance[36] Unknown ✔
Club for Growth[4] Unknown ✔
CatholicVote.org[4] Unknown ✔
Citizens United[4] Unknown ✔
FreedomWorks[4] Unknown ✔
Former candidates
Ronald Murray[16] February 14, 2018 ✔
State figures
Lola Zinke, wife of U.S. Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke[37] Unknown ✔


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Montana, Republican primary
Poll Rosendale (R) Downing (R)Fagg (R)Olszewski (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
WPA Intelligence
April 15-16, 2018		 40%12%17%8%23%+/-4.4503
WPA Intelligence
February 5-7, 2018		 28%12%11%0%49%+/-4.4401
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018, showed the following:

  • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.44 million and had about $73,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1.1 million total.
  • Matt Rosendale had raised nearly $1.3 million and had about $390,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • Russ Fagg had raised more than $1 million and had about $360,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • As of May 29, Al Olszewski had not filed his report.

Campaign finance disclosures from the first quarter of 2018 showed the following:

  • Troy Downing had raised almost $1.3 million and had almost $100,000 in cash-on-hand. He loaned his campaign $1 million.
  • Matt Rosendale had raised over $1 million and had about $540,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • Russ Fagg had raised about $930,000 and had about $630,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • Al Olszewski had raised about $230,000 and had almost $50,000 in cash-on-hand.

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly January 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who have reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of December 31, 2017.[38]

Republican Party Republicans




Campaign strategies and tactics

Focus on Tester

According to Politico, as of April 5, 2018, the Republican primary candidates had focused on U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D) rather than each other in their messaging. Politico's Kevin Robillard called the race "downright sleepy" and said that none of the candidates were seeking to exploit the others' vulnerabilities.[39]

At a forum on April 26, all four Republican candidates began criticizing Tester for his release of allegations of professional misconduct against White House physician Ronny Jackson, Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs. They said that Tester denied Jackson due process.[40]

State connections

Russ Fagg pointed to Matt Rosendale and Troy Downing not being born in Montana in his campaign.

“A couple of my opponents moved here 15 years ago (Rosendale) and sometime within the last nine years (Downing),” Fagg said in an email to supporters. “There’s no problem with them moving to Montana but it looks like they moved here to basically start a political career. Matt’s run I think (four) times in the last eight years, I think that’s something that concerns Montanans and that’s rightfully so."

Rosendale responded, “I can tell you that 262,045 Montanans don’t care about it, because that’s how many voted for me last election [for state auditor].”

Downing, who was set to go to trial for allegedly obtaining hunting licenses without residency in the state, said, “I think Montanans are smarter than that. What it really is, is what constitutes Montana values. That’s what I think it comes down to. Nobody is voting for my great-grandmother. … Whether my great-grandmother was born here or anywhere else is irrelevant, I think most Montanans are smart enough to know that.”[3]

At a forum on April 26, Fagg questioned Rosendale about Maryland being listed as his state of residence on 2015 property sale documents. Rosendale said that the title company involved in the transaction made an error when filling out the documents.

He further added, "I'll tell you, there's only one person I know in this world that was able to select where he was born, and that was 2,000 years ago in Bethlehem. The rest of us, we just get to pick where we're going to live."[40]

Fagg's judicial record

The Rosendale-allied Club for Growth began a negative spending campaign against Russ Fagg that focused on claims that he gave a lenient sentence to a defendant who admitted to domestic abuse.

In response, Fagg called the ad "disingenuous" and said, "out-of-state dark money groups are looking to buy this election for an out-of-state candidate."[41]

Campaign advertisements

Troy Downing

"Life," released July 25, 2017
"Called to Serve," released November 7, 2017
"Rescue," released November 28, 2017
"Trumpeter or Trump Supporter?," released March 26, 2018

Russ Fagg

Fagg ran a television ad that said criminal persons who entered the country without legal permission threated the country before taking it off air. Rachel Carroll Rivas, co-director of the Montana Human Rights Network, said that her organization received a number of comments saying the ad was racist in its depiction of Hispanic men with tattoos.

Fagg denied that the ad was racist, saying it focused on the meth usage in the state. He said he treated "everyone with respect and courtesy whether they're white, black, red, yellow, anything in between. I pride myself on that." He said the ad was taken down because of a copyright issue with one of the images that was used.[42]

Support
"Tough," released May 9, 2018
Oppose

The Club for Growth began running this ad opposing Fagg on May 29.

"Record," released May 29, 2018

The Protect Freedom PAC spent $100,000 airing this ad opposing Fagg starting May 29.

"Talk," released May 29, 2018

The Club for Growth began running this ad opposing Fagg on May 15.

"Objection," released May 15, 2018


Matt Rosendale

Support

The Club for Growth released the following pro-Rosendale television and digital ads on May 3.

"Same Cloth (digital)," released May 3, 2018
"Same Cloth (TV)," released May 3, 2018

Restoration PAC spent $50,000 airing this ad that opposed Tester and supported State Auditor Matt Rosendale. It began airing on March 23, 2018.

"Montana- Every Day," released March 23, 2018

Rosendale's campaign released the following ads:

"Immigration," released May 21, 2018
"Haircut," released April 26, 2018
"Stepped in it," released May 13, 2018
"Matt Means Business," released July 31, 2017
"2nd Amendment-Defending Our Rights," released November 28, 2017
"Momentum #MattMeansBusiness," released November 28, 2017
Oppose

The super PAC Principles First began airing this ad opposing Rosendale in May 2018. The group put $50,000 behind the buy.[23]

The Montana Democratic Party released this digital ad opposing Rosendale in March 2018.


How did the candidates differ?

Death penalty

After Russ Fagg released an ad in May 2018 highlighting his support for the death penalty and Matt Rosendale's opposition to it, the candidates began laying out their views on the policy.[43]

  • Republican Party Troy Downing said he supported the death penaly for "egregious acts in extreme situations" that he did not specify.
  • Republican Party Russ Fagg said that while he was glad he never imposed the death penalty as a judge, he would support for it in instances that are "premeditated, [involve] torture and then murder."
  • Republican Party Al Olszewski said he would like the death penalty “kept as minimal as possible or make it go away.”
  • Republican Party Matt Rosendale said his religious belief informs his opposition to the death penalty. He said, “[b]eyond the purposes of self-defense or imminent danger, my Catholic faith teaches me and millions of other Americans that we do not get to decide who lives or who dies, only the good Lord does.”

Public lands

The four candidates agreed that additional mining and logging should be allowed on Montana's public lands and that regulations should be decreased. They also said they supported laws that would limit the lawsuits that could be brought by environmental groups.[44]

The candidates disagreed, however, on the transfer of federal lands to the state. Although none of the candidates said they would support transfer legislation and all said they would support more local input in federal land management, they had differing views on the matter. As of 2014, 35 percent of Montana was made up of federal land.[45]

  • Republican Party Troy Downing said that transferring some federal lands would be good policy but he would not make it a priority. He said, "I don’t think that’s a battle we’ll win any time soon so I don’t want to waste my time on it, but I do think we need local input on managing. Actually transferring the ownership, maybe in the longer future.”[44]
  • Republican Party Russ Fagg opposed the transfer of federal lands to the states. He criticized Rosendale for his previous support for land transfers and his work with the American Lands Council, a pro-transfer organization.[45][44]
  • Republican Party Al Olszewski said he thought the state had performed well in land management. He added, “As far as who owns them I don’t care, but public lands need to be public lands. They’re a common good for the people.”[44]
  • Republican Party Matt Rosendale said he no longer supported transferring federal lands to the state government and said he used to hold that position due to his frustration with federal land management policies. He said, "What I was driving at is to make sure that we have good management of those lands and no one could tell me with a straight face that those lands were being managed properly. So what we’ve done now is I’ve spent the last several years traveling around the state many, many, many times, it is clear that the general populous of Montana does not want those federal lands transferred and I’m fine with that.”[44]

Support for Donald Trump

All four Republican candidates expressed support for President Donald Trump and his agenda, but they have differed on policy specifics and other matters related to the president.

  • Tariffs: Russ Fagg was the only candidate who opposed Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum outright. Troy Downing and Al Olszewski said they wanted to see the impact of the tariffs before passing judgment.[46] Matt Rosendale said he supported the president's negotiating strategy.[47]
  • Endorsements by former Trump officials: Fagg criticized Downing and Rosendale for receiving endorsements from former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, respectively. Downing defended his endorsement from Flynn, saying that he was a "casualty of what’s going on in D.C."[46]
  • 2016 presidential election: Downing criticized Trump during the 2016 presidential primary election, saying he was "either a liar or an idiot." He changed direction in the campaign, leading Carroll College political science professor Jeremy Johnson to say he was "as pro-Trump as possible." Olszewski supported Trump in the presidential primary but said that he did not look to him for moral direction.[46]

Campaign themes and policy stances

Troy Downing

Downing's campaign website stated the following:

“

Sending Jon Tester Home
Jon Tester will never vote in the U.S. Senate to reduce your taxes, repeal Obamacare, or advance President Trump’s agenda. He is more interested in appeasing Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and the DNC. He voted against Neil Gorsuch, President Trump’s pick for U.S. Supreme Court and most recently against the FY 2018 budget which will put our country on track to a balanced budget. It is time to knock Tester off his throne in the swamp and send a conservative political outsider with business and military experience who knows how to solve problems. I am the best candidate to take on Tester and I hope you will join me in this fight.

Protecting Access to Public Lands
I have always and continue to be grateful for the bountiful opportunities Montana’s natural resources provide. Any chance I get to go fishing, hunting and mountain biking I take and share that love of the outdoors with my friends and family. I understand how important access to our public lands are and I will fight to protect those lands for future generations. Whether you like to hike, ski, mountain bike, fish, hunt or just enjoy a picnic in the most beautiful place on earth, we should all be afforded the chance to enjoy the last best place.

Across the west there are also special interest groups that work to crush private property rights. While I fully support and know how important access to our public lands are, private property rights cannot be trampled. For example, these special interest groups would take land out of private ownership and introduce ideas such as wild free-roaming bison to our farming communities. Farming is hard enough.

Safeguarding the Second Amendment
As a military veteran, husband, and father I know that our 2nd Amendment rights must always be defended. Every day, however, our 2nd Amendment rights are being attacked by the liberal elite on the left. We must have a strong voice in the U.S. Senate to stand up for the 2nd Amendment and the ability of our citizens to protect this country and our homes. I will be your voice in the U.S. Senate to make sure your right to bear arms will always be possible and shall never be infringed as the founders of this great nation intended.

100% Pro-Life
I, myself, was an unplanned pregnancy. My mother made the choice at a very young age to give me a chance at life. Even though I grew up poor, I have no regrets. My experiences made me who I am. I thank God every day that my mother was strong enough to give me life. I believe that every human life has value, a purpose, and deserves a chance. That’s why I am 100% Pro-Life.

Obamacare and Healthcare for Our Veterans
We all know Obamacare has been a disaster from the start. Even the architects of Obamacare know it’s a train wreck about to happen. Less choice, higher premiums, and an expensive and out-of-control bureaucracy adds no value to actual “Health Care”. This is a system doomed for failure. This is the exact opposite of what was promised. We need principled conservatives in the Senate to repeal this mess and get government out of the way. The VA isn’t working for our Veterans and Obamacare isn’t working for our citizens. Let’s get to work on actually solving these major problems, not making them worse.

Let’s attack the issues that are making health care expensive- let’s address tort reform, hospital billing practice, pharmaceutical pricing, re-establish doctor-patient relationships… Then, let’s open the insurance market to competition. By doing this we can really move the needle in making quality healthcare affordable and accessible to more Americans.

Much Needed Tax Reform
Not only do we need to lower tax rates on middle-class families and small businesses, but we need to make the tax process simple and fair. It is far too complicated for individuals and small businesses that are trying to survive and keep food on the table. Small businesses are the heartbeat of America and they are being held back by the time and expense required to plan and file their taxes. This time and money is better spent on employees, benefits, and growing their business. If you cannot afford an attorney or tax professional you are at a huge disadvantage. We MUST simplify this. We must also cut tax rates on a corporate level so that our businesses are building companies, creating jobs and making products here in America not overseas.

[48]

”
—Troy Downing’s campaign website (2018)[49]

Russ Fagg

Campaign website

Fagg's campaign website stated the following:

“

PRO-JOBS
Russ has seen just about every form of family heartbreak come through his court room over the years — most of them caused by poverty and economic crisis. Montana needs more good-paying jobs.

PRO-SECOND AMENDMENT
“A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people, to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” Nothing about “Shall not be infringed” is unclear.

PRO-BALANCED BUDGET
How many trillions are enough? With every passing day our government puts our children deeper into debt. It’s time for a balanced budget.

PRO-EDUCATION
Every Montana family deserves the best educational opportunity for their kids.

PRO-LIFE
Our constitution gurantees every American citizen the right to life, including the most vulnerable.

PRO-LIMITED GOVERNMENT
The framers of our Constitution created a system where no branch of the government could amass too much power. We need to preserve that.

[48]

”
—Russ Fagg’s campaign website (2018)[50]

Campaign events

Fagg attended a campaign event in Polson, Montana, on February 5, 2018. At the campaign event, he criticized Jon Tester for voting against the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which would have restricted abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. He also said that he was not a partisan and had Democratic friends.

When asked about what he would do for Native American tribal members, Fagg said he would emphasize economic growth over federal transfer programs. He said, “I’m concerned about the loss of self esteem. I’m convinced the Great Society has been a huge failure.”

When asked about two ethics complaints that had been filed against him due to his alleged improper spending of campaign funds and alleged errors made on his campaign finance disclosure form, Fagg said the complaints would be dismissed. He added, “They file these just to throw mud even though they know they’ll be dismissed.” The complaints were filed by the American Democracy Legal Fund, which was founded by liberal activist David Brock.[51]

Albert Olszewski

Olszewski's campaign website stated the following:

“

Healthcare
We all know that healthcare is failing. If you pay for your insurance, it’s unaffordable. If the government pays for your healthcare, it’s inaccessible. The main reason for this colossal failure is due to the excessive, intrusive, and burdensome regulations put in place by Affordable Care Act.

As a physician and a legislator, my strategy for reforming our healthcare system consists of three parts:

Immediate healthcare regulation reform. Repeal of the Affordable Care Act. The development of a new healthcare system utilizing a bipartisan approach. The only way to achieve true, long-lasting healthcare reform requires that all stakeholders be involved in the process starting with the patient, the providers, the payers, and the regulators of our healthcare system. As your US senator, I will champion this approach.

National Debt
Our national debt is the greatest threat to our nation’s prosperity. The federal government’s inability to live within a balanced budget is shameful. Our generation is saddling future generations through intergenerational theft. We are stealing from our children, and our children’s children to pay for today’s big government.

I will stand with those who wish to pass a balanced budget amendment. Our federal government has proven that it cannot, by will power or legislation alone, live within their means.

National Defense
Sending our military into harm’s way is the gravest decision any senator can make. Our nation faces threats to its safety at many levels. From international conflict with North Korea and Syria, and our war against ISIS, America must remain vigilant and be prepared to defend itself at a moment’s notice. As a military physician trained to treat the casualties of war, I understand the true human costs of engaging in any type of military conflict. Sending our troops into combat should only occur when all other methods of diplomacy have failed. I am committed to provide our troops with all the resources necessary to be successful in times of war and peace. We must stand firm with our allies around the world in order to defend our freedoms.

Pro-Life
I believe in the dignity and value of all human life from conception to natural death, without exception. I have authored original legislation to protect and defend unborn children. I have championed legislation to promote the welfare and safety of our elderly, our disabled, and our families. As your next senator, I will continue to fight for the weak and our most vulnerable.

Public Lands
In order to successfully manage public lands, I believe three criteria need to be met:

Increase the number of Montanans who are able to make a living and provide for their families through the management of our public lands. Increase access to Montana’s public lands for Montanans to hunt, fish, and recreate. Turn our lands from a liability to a viable asset that produces revenue for our local towns and counties to provide infrastructure and public schools. Selling public lands is a false narrative. The real issue is who controls access and management of public lands within our state. The federal government should look to Montanans to understand our unique needs and on how to manage our lands.

Veteran's Affairs
Our veterans deserve better service from our government. These men and women have sacrificed for our country. Despite multiple attempts by our nation’s capital, the Veterans Administration continues to overpromise and under deliver. This issue will not be solved until Congress is serious about fundamentally changing the culture of how we provide service to our veterans. As a veteran and a prior military physician, I will champion a veterans’ healthcare system that focuses on the expedited treatment of our wounded warriors and transition our veterans’ routine medical needs to their local community healthcare systems.

[48]

”
—Albert Olszewski’s campaign website (2018)[52]

Matt Rosendale

Rosendale's campaign website stated the following:

“

DEFEND OUR NATION

Restore Leadership and Accountability to Veterans Healthcare

  • Veterans tell me that our V.A. healthcare is abysmal and it’s a direct result of a lack of leadership and a lack of accountability. I’ll fight the D.C. status quo in the Senate and work to unwind the red tape at the V.A.

Iran Deal

  • I am absolutely opposed to Obama’s Iran Deal, which puts Iran on track to be the next North Korea. We must prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons. I will support President Trump in renegotiating this terrible deal.

Secure our Border

  • It’s time to get serious about protecting our borders and stopping illegal immigration. Build the wall, enforce our laws and secure our border.

EXPAND THE ECONOMY
Repeal Obamacare and Fight Job-Killing Regulations

  • It’s time for Congress to quit messing around and deliver on its promises to the American people. We must repeal Obamacare – fully repeal.
  • I’m ready to get to work implementing free market healthcare reforms that expand access and increases options for quality, affordable healthcare to meet an individual’s unique needs, budgets and personal choices.
  • I will also work to repeal regulations that burden our businesses and families, just like I did in the Montana Legislature, where I earned the title “Champion of Business” from the Montana Chamber of Commerce.

Pass No-Nonsense Tax Reform

  • I don’t have to explain it to Montana farmers, who’ve told me that dying should not be a taxable event. We must repeal the death tax.
  • I’ll fight to reduce taxes and allow hard-working Americans to keep the money they’ve earned.
  • I’ll also support President Trump’s efforts to create a simpler, no-nonsense tax code that benefits all Americans.

PRESERVE OUR MONTANA WAY OF LIFE
Protect the Sanctity of Life – No Exceptions

  • I’m unashamed to be pro-life in all circumstances, no exceptions.

Support Strong Constitutionalists for the Supreme Court

  • One of the greatest responsibilities of a Senator is to review and confirm nominations to the Supreme Court. I will support nominees like Justice Neal Gorsuch who will uphold the Constitution and strongly oppose activist judges who push a progressive agenda.

PROTECT MONTANA'S OUTDOOR HERITAGE
Honor the 2nd Amendment

  • The 2nd Amendment in the Bill of Rights was crystal clear. I will always protect our right to own firearms and fight any attempt from Washington D.C. to infringe on that.

Support Greater Access to our Public Lands

  • During my service on Montana’s land board, I’ve shown that I will work to expand access to public lands for hunters, anglers and others who simply want to enjoy Montana’s great outdoors. I’ll do the same in the Senate.

Fight Radical Environmental Groups and Promote Proper Land Management

  • Radical environmental groups who oppose proper management and resource development are threatening our way of life and allowing our forests to burn while locked up in lawsuits. I’ll fight them every step of the way.

Develop our Abundant Natural Resources

  • Our communities that depend on the natural resource industries are being decimated by environmentalist lawsuits and big government regulations that kill jobs. I’ve always been a strong supporter of responsible resource development and I’ll continue in the Senate.

Protect Montana’s Public Lands

  • I will oppose efforts to transfer Federal Public Lands to the State.

[48]

”
—Matt Rosendale’s campaign website (2018)[53]

Candidate forums

April 26, 2018

The candidates met for a debate in Bozeman on April 26. It was hosted by the Greater Montana Foundation.

"Primary Debate for U.S. Senate," released April 26, 2018

April 18, 2018

The candidates met in Missoula for a forum. See full coverage from The Independent Record.

March 28, 2018

The candidates met in Missoula for a debate. See full coverage of the debate from The Missoulian and The Missoula Current.

Race ratings

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[54]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[55][56]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

External links

Troy Downing

Russell Fagg

Matt Rosendale

Footnotes

  1. ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  2. ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Independent Record, "As U.S. Senate primary nears, GOP candidates seek to separate selves from pack," April 8, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Sidney Herald, "Rosendale says he’s best chance to take Senate seat from Tester," February 10, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 8 KPAX, "Former judge Fagg is the third Republican to file in U.S. Senate race," February 7, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Montana Secretary of State, "2018 election calendar," accessed February 1, 2018
  7. ↑ Independent Record, "GOP Senate candidate says Montana FWP part of liberal 'deep state,'" November 8, 2017
  8. ↑ NBC Montana, "Montana US Senate hopeful facing trial in hunting violations," February 14, 2018
  9. ↑ Bozeman Daily Chronicle, "U.S. Senate candidate’s trial delayed until after primary election," May 4, 2018
  10. ↑ The Montana Post, "Let’s Talk About Troy Downing For a Moment," August 10, 2017
  11. ↑ Troy Downing for Congress, "About Troy," accessed March 5, 2018
  12. ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Money Flows as Republicans Jockey for Montana US Senate Slot," May 28, 2018
  13. ↑ Washington Times, "Russell Fagg joins Montana Republican Senate race," October 14, 2017
  14. ↑ Al Olszewski for Senate, "FIRST WE MUST REPEAL AND REPLACE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH McCONNELL," February 12, 2018
  15. ↑ Al Olszewski for Senate, "Testimonials," accessed March 5, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 KRTV, "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out," February 14, 2018
  17. ↑ Al Olszewski for Senate, "About," accessed March 5, 2018
  18. ↑ Breitbart, "Matt Rosendale Leads by Double Digits in Montana Senate Republican Primary," February 8, 2018
  19. ↑ Breitbart, "Exclusive — Matt Rosendale: Montana Sending Me to Senate ‘Not to Bring Home the Bacon, but to Slaughter the Hog’ of Big Government," March 13, 2018
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Tampa Bay Times, "Michael Flynn cancels Montana campaign appearance," May 6, 2018
  21. ↑ ABC News, "As Steve Bannon's star fades, so does that of some candidates he backed," March 3, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 ProPublica, "Montana’s At-Large Senate Race - 2018 cycle," accessed May 22, 2018
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 KRTV, "GOP Senate primary: obscure group dings Rosendale; Club for Growth ups the ante against Fagg," May 25, 2018
  24. ↑ WMUR, "NH Primary Source: Republican strategist Biundo leading new Rand Paul PAC," November 2, 2017
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 Great Falls Tribune, "Rosendale touts Ted Cruz, Mike Lee endorsements," December 7, 2017
  26. ↑ Matt for Montana, "Senator Rand Paul Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.s. Senate," January 29, 2018
  27. ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Michael Flynn to Campaign for Montana Senate Candidate," April 24, 2018
  28. ↑ KMMS, "Dan Quayle endorses Troy Downing," March 9, 2018
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 Russ for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 1, 2018
  30. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  31. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  32. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 Russ Fagg for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed March 5, 2018
  34. ↑ Troy Downing for Senate, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  35. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  36. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Montana, "Endorsements," accessed February 19, 2018
  37. ↑ Lone Peak Lookout, "Big Sky’s biggest name in politics," February 15, 2018
  38. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission", accessed February 13, 2018
  39. ↑ Politico, "Montana Republicans focus on Tester ahead of primary, April 5, 2018
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 U.S. News and World Report, "GOP Senate Candidates Jab Over Endorsements, Residency," April 26, 2018
  41. ↑ The Hill, "GOP Senate primary heats up in Montana," May 23, 2018
  42. ↑ The Independent, "Montana GOP Senate candidate takes down ad criticized by some as racist," May 14, 2018
  43. ↑ Independent Record, "GOP primary candidates in Montana's U.S. Senate race split on death penalty," May 14, 2018
  44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3 44.4 Independent Record, "GOP Senate candidates seek balance in natural resource policies," April 30, 2018
  45. ↑ 45.0 45.1 Independent Record, "Rosendale calls for transferring federal lands to state," April 19, 2014
  46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 46.2 Independent Record, "Senate GOP primary candidates hold tight to Trump," April 29, 2018
  47. ↑ Independent Record, "GOP Senate candidates get prickly in Billings forum," April 24, 2018
  48. ↑ 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.3 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  49. ↑ Troy Downing for Senate, “Issues,” accessed March 5, 2018
  50. ↑ Russ Fagg for Senate, “Issues,” accessed March 5, 2018
  51. ↑ Valley Journal, "Retired Billings judge targets Tester in Polson event," February 18, 2018
  52. ↑ Albert Olszewski’ for Senate, “Issues,” accessed March 5, 2018
  53. ↑ Matt Rosendale for Senate, “Issues,” accessed March 5, 2018
  54. ↑ 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  55. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  56. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Montana's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Steve Daines (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
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