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State legislative Republican primaries, 2018

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2018 Elections
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In November 2018, 87 of 99 state legislative chambers held general elections for 6,073 seats—roughly 82 percent of the 7,383 state legislative seats in the country. As of December 2017, 67 chambers were under GOP control, while Democrats held majorities in 32 chambers.[1]

Heading into the 2018 elections, Republicans were coming off several years where they saw success in state legislative elections. From 2010 to 2016, Republicans saw a significant increase in their power in state legislatures, winning control of 30 chambers and nearly 1,000 seats previously held by Democrats. Republicans also saw their number of trifectas increase from 10 prior to the 2010 elections to 26 following the 2016 elections. Check out the battleground chambers we tracked for the 2018 elections.

This page provides an overview of state legislative Republican primaries in 2018, including when elections were held, and the political context surrounding the elections. It also provides an analysis of Republican primary competitiveness in 2018 vs. 2016, highlights key primary races that occurred in 2018, and shows how Republican state legislative primaries ended up in 2014 and 2016.

The divisions within the Republican Party played a role in state legislative primaries. Before and after the 2016 elections, political observers pointed to at least three major divisions in the Republican Party, which are best identified with examples from national politics. The identified factions are not absolute and often overlap with each other.

  • Moderate Republicans vs. conservative Republicans: The differences between these factions tended to be based on public policy issues such as levels of taxation, spending, and immigration policy. An example of a moderate Republican would be U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-Me.), who opposed her party's efforts to make changes to the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid coverage in 2017.[2] Examples of conservative Republicans would be U.S. Senators Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Ben Sasse (R), who both received 100 percent ratings from the American Conservative Union in 2017 based on their stances on economic, cultural, and national security issues.[3]
  • Establishment Republicans vs. anti-establishment Republicans: The differences between these factions tended to be based on support for party leaders who have typically been in power for several years, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Freedom Caucus in the U.S. House was an example of an anti-establishment Republican faction because its members tended to prioritize their ideology before the wishes of party leaders like former House Speaker John Boehner (R).[4]
  • Pro-Trump Republicans vs. anti-Trump Republicans: Before and after the 2016 presidential election, media outlets began to identify Republicans who supported the policies and politics of Donald Trump (R) as a separate faction, often distinguishing them from Republicans who opposed Trump (#NeverTrump Republicans).[5][6] An example of a Republican who opposes President Trump was U.S. Senator Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) while an example of a pro-Trump Republican was former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon.

In state legislative elections, term-limited incumbents, retiring incumbents, and state legislators seeking higher office create opportunities for primary face-offs in open seats. Incumbent officeholders can also attract primary challengers, though incumbents rarely lose in the primary elections. In 2016, more than 1,005 incumbents faced a primary challenger and only 123 were defeated. Members of the various Republican factions competed against each other in open seats and incumbent vs. challenger match-ups. See more about how the 2018 primaries were decided here.

For more in-depth information about the state legislative Democratic primaries and general elections, see the following pages:

For more of our 2018 primary coverage, see the following pages:

Partisan balance

Heading into the 2018 elections, Republicans held majorities in 67 of 99 state legislative chambers, including 36 of 50 state senates and 31 of 49 state houses. They also held a majority of state legislative seats. See the charts below for a breakdown of partisan control in state legislatures before and after the 2018 elections.

The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.

Partisan Control of All 99 State Legislatures
Pre-election Post-election
Legislative Chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Democratic Party Republican Party Split Democratic Party Republican Party
State senates 14 36 18 (+4) 32 (-4) 0
State houses 18 31 19 (+1) 29 (-2) 1
Total: 32 67 37 (+5) 61 (-6) 1

The following table details partisan balance of all 7,383 state legislative seats.

Partisan Balance of All 7,383 State Legislative Seats
Pre-election Post-election
Legislative Chamber Democratic Party Republican Party Other[7] Democratic Party Republican Party Other[7]
State senates 809 1,135 28 869 1,076 27
State houses 2,314 2,986 111 2,574 2,781 56
Total: 3,123 4,121 139 3,443 3,857 83

Republican primaries

By date

March 6

March 20

May 8

May 15

May 22

June 5

June 12

June 26

August 2

August 7

August 11

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August 21

August 28

September 4

September 6

September 11

September 12

September 13

By state

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Florida

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Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Maine

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Michigan

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Ohio

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Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Battleground primaries

Upcoming battleground primaries

All primaries in 2018 have been held.

Battleground primaries which have already taken place

Republican divisions

Divisions within the Republican Party include disagreements over public policy and whether to support Republican leaders, whether that is President Trump, Republican governors, or leaders in state legislative chambers. Some of these divisions have played out at the state legislative level. Here are some examples:

  • From February to June 2017, Republicans in the Kansas State Legislature debated whether to roll back a series of tax cuts that Gov. Sam Brownback (R) had signed in 2012. Although the Republicans had a two-thirds majority in both chambers, members were unable to agree on how to approach the tax cuts, with moderate Republicans opposing the cuts and conservative Republicans supporting them. Moderate Republicans joined with Democrats in support of a plan to raise income taxes. In June 2017, the moderate Republican-Democratic alliance overrode Brownback's veto of the tax increase.
  • From June to July 2017, Illinois Republicans were split on whether to support Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) or the Democratic leaders in the Illinois General Assembly in a debate over the state budget and taxation levels. Rauner and Democratic leaders could not agree on a budget for the 2018 fiscal year during the 2017 legislative session. Illinois had been without a budget since 2015, and, after June 30 passed, it entered the 2018 fiscal year without one. In early July, 15 House Republicans joined with the House Democrats to pass a spending plan and a tax increase. Ten House Republicans later voted to override Rauner's vetoes of the budget and tax increase.[8]
  • From July to August 2017, the Texas State Legislature was in special session. During the special session, members considered some bills that were backed by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and members of the more conservative state Senate, including bills that would regulate bathroom usage and limit municipalities' ability to increase property taxes. House Speaker Joe Straus (R), a moderate Republican aligned with business interests, and his allies blocked the bills from coming to the floor. The disagreements between Straus and conservatives led to the formation of an organization intending to end Straus' tenure as speaker. Straus announced his retirement in October 2017.

Competitiveness analysis

The graphs below show the number of candidates running for both parties, the number of incumbents facing primary challenges, and the number of total primaries compared to the same point in 2016 elections.

This chart tracked the number of primary challenges to incumbents, the number of incumbents defeated, and total Republican primaries in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections. See the Democratic analysis here.

State legislative Republican primaries, 2018 vs. 2016
2018 2016
Candidates running 6348 6279
Incumbents retired 746 619
Incumbent primary challenges 597 619
Incumbent primary defeats 77 84
Total Republican primaries 1058 1011

Click [Show] to see states with filing deadlines that passed. Click on links inside the chart to see the candidates who ran in the primaries.

Background

Primary competitiveness, 2014-2016

The charts below show our available data on competitiveness in Republican primaries in state houses and state senates from 2014 to 2016. The following information is included:

  • Incumbent primary challenges: The number of incumbents who ran for re-election and faced a primary challenger.
  • Incumbent primary challenges (%): The percentage of incumbents who faced primary challenges out of those who ran for re-election.
  • Incumbent primary defeats: The number of incumbents who were defeated in their primaries.
  • Incumbent primary defeats (%): The percentage of incumbents who were defeated out of those who faced challenges.
  • Total Republican primaries: The total number of Republican primaries, counting those in seats held by incumbents of both parties and those that occurred in open seats.
  • Total Republican primaries (%): The percentage of races that held Republican primaries out of all seats that held elections.
State House Republican primaries, 2014-2016
Incumbent primary challenges Incumbent primary defeats Total Republican primaries
Year Raw number % Raw number % Raw number %
2016 493 22.2 percent 64 13.0 percent 758 16.1 percent
2014 492 22.9 percent 68 13.8 percent N/A N/A
State Senate Republican primaries, 2014-2016
Incumbent primary challenges Incumbent primary defeats Total Republican primaries
Year Raw number % Raw number % Raw number %
2016 103 18.3 percent 19 18.4 percent 225 18.6 percent
2014 97 N/A 17 17.5 percent N/A N/A

2018 battleground chambers

See also: State legislative battleground chambers, 2018

Ballotpedia tracked 22 state legislative battleground chambers in 2018. Battlegrounds are chambers that we anticipated would be more competitive overall than other chambers and have the potential to see significant shifts in party control. These were the 22 battleground chambers in 2018.

Democratic Party Alaska House of Representatives (Power-sharing between parties)
Republican Party Arizona State Senate
Democratic Party Colorado House of Representatives
Republican Party Colorado State Senate (Democratic gain)
Democratic Party Connecticut House of Representatives
Democratic Party Connecticut State Senate
Democratic Party Delaware State Senate
Republican Party Florida State Senate
Republican Party Iowa House of Representatives
Democratic Party Maine House of Representatives
Republican Party Maine State Senate (Democratic gain)
Republican Party Michigan House of Representatives
Republican Party Michigan State Senate
Republican Party Minnesota House of Representatives (Democratic gain)
Democratic Party Nevada State Senate
Republican Party New Hampshire House of Representatives (Democratic gain)
Republican Party New Hampshire State Senate (Democratic gain)
Democratic Party New Mexico House of Representatives elections
Republican Party New York State Senate (Democratic gain)
Democratic Party Washington House of Representatives
Democratic Party Washington State Senate
Republican Party Wisconsin State Senate




The columns in the chart below list the following information:

  • Seats up in 2018: This was the number of seats in the chamber that were up for election in 2018.
  • Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
  • Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's total seats controlled by the majority party.
  • Last time party control changed?: This was the election where the party in power before the 2018 elections took control of the chamber.
2018 battleground chambers
Chamber Seats up in 2018 Margin Majority share of seats Last time party control changed? Did it flip?
Alaska House of Representatives* All 40 D+4 55 percent 2016 Power-sharing agreement
Arizona State Senate 17 of 30 R+4 56.7 percent 2002 No
Colorado House of Representatives All 65 D+7 55.4 percent 2012 No
Colorado State Senate 17 of 35 R+2 51.4 percent 2014 Yes Democratic Party
Connecticut House of Representatives All 151 D+9 53.0 percent 1986 No
Connecticut State Senate** All 36 D+0 50 percent 1996 No
Delaware State Senate 10 of 21 D+1 52.4 percent 1974 No
Florida State Senate 22 of 40 R+6 55.0 percent 1994 No
Iowa House of Representatives All 100 R+17 58.0 percent 2010 No
Maine House of Representatives All 151 D+3 48.3 percent 2012 No
Maine State Senate All 35 R+1 51.4 percent 2014 Yes Democratic Party
Minnesota House of Representatives All 134 R+21 57.5 percent 2014 Yes Democratic Party
Michigan House of Representatives All 110 R+17 57.3 percent 2010 No
Michigan State Senate All 38 R+17 71.1 percent 1982[13] No
Nevada State Senate 11 of 21 D+2 47.6 percent 2016 No
New Hampshire House of Representatives All 400 R+45 53.0 percent 2014 Yes Democratic Party
New Hampshire State Senate All 24 R+4 58.3 percent 2010 Yes Democratic Party
New Mexico House of Representatives All 70 D+7 54.3 percent 2016 No
New York State Senate* All 63 R+1 50.8 percent 2010 Yes Democratic Party
Washington House of Representatives All 98 D+2 51.0 percent 1998 No
Washington State Senate 24 of 49 D+1 51.0 percent 2012 No
Wisconsin State Senate 18 of 33 R+3 54.5 percent 2010 No

*This chamber were controlled by a minority party coalition because some members of the party with the numerical majority caucus with the minority party.
** This chamber was evenly divided 18-18 following the 2016 elections. Democrats maintained an effective majority because Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) could cast tie-breaking votes.


Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2017

See also: Partisan composition of state legislatures

Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 61 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and one chamber was split between the parties. In the six years that followed, Republicans made significant gains and took control of many of the chambers that were previously held by Democrats. Following the 2016 elections, Republicans controlled 68 chambers and Democrats controlled 31. After the November 2017 elections, Republicans controlled 67 chambers and Democrats controlled 32.

From 2010 to 2017, there were 54 instances where a state legislative chamber changed partisan control. Of these 54 changes, 40 involved a chamber changing from Democratic to Republican control and 11 involved a chamber changing from Republican to Democratic control. The other three involved chambers that were split between the two parties (Oregon House in 2010 and 2012; Montana House in 2010).

Most of the changes came during major elections but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through a bipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[14]

From 2010 to 2017, 39 chambers switched control: 28 switched control once, seven switched control twice, and four switched control three times. Eleven of the 15 battleground chambers in 2018 switched control at least once from 2010 to 2017. For the 50 instances where a chamber switched control in a regularly scheduled election, the average majority controlled 55.7 percent of its chamber's seat heading into the election.

For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber flipped from Republican to Democratic control.

Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2017
Party changes in 2010 Party changes in 2011 Party changes in 2012 Party changes in 2014 Party changes in 2016 Party changes in 2017
Alabama Senate Louisiana Senate[15][16] Alaska Senate Colorado Senate Alaska House Washington Senate
Alabama House Mississippi Senate[17][18] Arkansas Senate Maine Senate Iowa Senate
Colorado House Mississippi House Arkansas House Minnesota House Kentucky House
Indiana House Virginia Senate[19] Colorado House Nevada Senate Minnesota Senate
Iowa House Maine Senate Nevada House Nevada Senate
Louisiana House[20][21] Maine House New Hampshire House Nevada House
Maine Senate Minnesota Senate New Mexico House New Mexico House
Maine House Minnesota House West Virginia Senate
Michigan House New Hampshire House West Virginia House
Minnesota Senate Oregon House[22]
Minnesota House Washington Senate
Montana House[23]
New Hampshire Senate
New Hampshire House
New York Senate
North Carolina Senate
North Carolina House
Ohio House
Oregon House[24]
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Senate
Wisconsin House
Total changes: 22 Total changes: 4 Total changes: 11 Total changes: 9 Total changes: 7 Total changes: 1

State legislative seats from 2010 to 2016

See also: Changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency

Throughout Barack Obama's (D) tenure as president, from 2009 to 2017, Democrats experienced losses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats. As of January 2009, Democrats controlled 4,082 of the country's 7,383 legislative seats (55.3 percent). By January 2017, they controlled 3,114 seats (42.2 percent). During the same time, Republicans increased their seats from 3,223 (43.7 percent) to 4,171 (56.5 percent). In 82 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans held more seats in January 2017 than they did in January 2009.[25]

It is normal for a party to lose ground in state legislatures when their party controls the presidency for two terms. Between the time of Franklin Roosevelt (D) and George W. Bush (R), the political party of the president lost, on average, 450 state legislative seats while holding the White House. The losses that the Democratic Party sustained under Obama, however, were exceptional, rivaled only by the terms of Richard Nixon (R) and Dwight Eisenhower (R), when Republicans lost 800 and 843 seats, respectively.

Trifectas from 2010 to 2017

See also: State government trifectas

A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. Since 2010, the Republican Party has increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party has seen a decline in its trifectas. Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats had 17 trifectas, Republicans had 10, and 23 states were under divided government. After the 2016 elections, Republicans had 25 trifectas, Democrats had six, and 19 states were under divided government. In August 2017, Republicans picked up another trifecta when West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice changed his partisan affiliation from Democratic to Republican. In the November 2017 elections, Democrats won a special election in the Washington State Senate and gained control of the chamber. The Democratic Party also took the governorship of New Jersey, although incoming governor Phil Murphy (D) was not sworn in until January 2018. This made Washington and New Jersey Democratic trifectas and brought the total number of trifectas to 26 for Republicans and eight for Democrats, with 16 states under divided government.

This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2018.

Trifectas by year: 2010-2018
Election Democratic trifectas Republican trifectas States under divided government
Pre-2010 elections 17 10 23
Pre-2012 elections 11 22 17
Pre-2014 elections 12 24 14
Pre-2016 elections 7 23 20
Pre-2018 elections[26] 8 26 16

Click on the map below to see the trifecta status of different states following elections from 2010 to 2016.

Current state government trifectas

State government trifectas, post-2024 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2024 elections

State government trifectas, post-2022 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2022 elections

State government trifectas, post-2020 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2020 elections

State government trifectas, post-2018 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2018 elections

State government trifectas, post-2016 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2016 elections

State government trifectas, pre-2014

State government trifectas, pre-2012

State government trifectas, pre-2010

Learn more about Ballotpedia's analyses of trifectas and state governments

Current state government trifectas
Historical and potential changes in trifectas
Trifectas and legislatively referred constitutional amendments
Who Runs the States Report
Party control of state government

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Although the Nebraska State Senate elects its members in nonpartisan elections, members of the chamber generally function along party lines when it comes to voting and caucusing. Please see Nebraska State Senate partisan affiliation for more information.
  2. ↑ CNN, "Collins to vote 'no' on Graham-Cassidy bill, likely killing latest Obamacare repeal," September 25, 2017
  3. ↑ Polizette, "Who Are the Most Conservative Members of Congress?" May 4, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "The Two Cracks In The Republican Party," March 26, 2017
  5. ↑ New York Times, "Trump Republicans Invigorate, and Complicate, Party’s Fight for Senate," August 29, 2017
  6. ↑ Bloomberg, "Never-Trumpers Never Agree About Anything Else," November 20, 2017
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Third party incumbents and vacancies.
  8. ↑ Politico, "Illinois Republicans help override Rauner's veto, sealing budget deal," July 6, 2017
  9. ↑ Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
  10. ↑ Maryland did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
  11. ↑ California uses top-two primaries where all candidates, regardless of party, run in the primary. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
  12. ↑ Washington uses top-two primaries where all candidates, regardless of party, run in the primary. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
  13. ↑ Detroit News, "Democrats in Michigan seek to flip state House in 2018," July 8, 2018
  14. ↑ The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
  15. ↑ The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
  16. ↑ Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
  17. ↑ The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
  18. ↑ The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
  19. ↑ In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
  20. ↑ This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellington changed his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
  21. ↑ Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
  22. ↑ In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
  23. ↑ This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
  24. ↑ This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.
  25. ↑ Data compiled by Ballotpedia staff
  26. ↑ Last updated February 9, 2018.
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