Washington House of Representatives elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 8 (mail or online), or Oct. 29 (in-person)
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: N/A (Washington conducts all elections by mail)
- Poll times: N/A
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| 2018 Washington House elections | |
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| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | August 7, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
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| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats expanded their majority in the 2018 elections for the Washington House of Representatives, winning 57 seats to Republicans' 41. At the time of the election, Democrats held 50 seats to Republicans' 48.
Ballotpedia identified 13 of the races as battlegrounds, including nine Republican-held districts and four Democratic-held districts. Of the 13 battlegrounds, Democrats won eight, including four Republican-held seats, and Republicans won 5.
Heading into the election, Washington had been under a Democratic trifecta since the party won a special state Senate election on November 7, 2017. This broke the state's divided government, which first formed in 2013 when Republicans took control of the state Senate. Heading into the election, Democrats had controlled the governor's office since 1985 and the state House since 2002. Had the Republican Party taken the chamber, it would have broken the Democratic trifecta.
The Washington House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. In 2017, three chambers in Virginia and New Jersey were up for election. In 2016, 86 out of 99 legislative chambers held elections. Prior to 2018, the Washington House of Representatives last held elections in 2016.
Washington state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primaries, click here.
For more information about the Republican primaries, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Democratic Party maintained control of both chambers of the Washington State Legislature in the 2018 election. Both chambers of the Washington State Legislature were identified as battleground chambers. In the state Senate, 25 out of 49 seats were up for election. Democrats increased their majority in the Washington State Senate from 26-23 to 29-20. One Democratic incumbent and two Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The Washington House of Representatives held elections for all 98 seats. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased from 50-48 to 57-41. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent were defeated in the primary and six Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Districts
- See also: Washington state legislative districts
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Candidates
General election candidates
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection
Primary candidates
The candidate list below is based on a list provided by the Washington Secretary of State website on May 31, 2018. The filing deadline for the August primary was on May 18, 2018.[1]
Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Washington House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[2]
| Washington House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[2] |
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
||||
 Other |
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| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Washington House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Washington House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Washington House of Representatives District 10-Position 2 | Dave Hayes |
Dave Paul |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 28-Position 1 | Dick Muri |
Mari Leavitt |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 42-Position 2 | Vincent Buys |
Sharon Shewmake |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 44-Position 2 | Mark Harmsworth |
Jared Mead |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 47-Position 1 | Mark Hargrove |
Debra Entenman |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 5-Position 1 | Jay Rodne |
Bill Ramos |
R to D |
| Washington House of Representatives District 5-Position 2 | Paul Graves |
Lisa Callan |
R to D |
Incumbents retiring
Fourteen incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Office |
|---|---|---|
| Jay Rodne |  Republican |
House District 5-Position 1 |
| Jeff Holy | Republican |
House District 6-Position 2 |
| Larry Haler | Republican |
House District 8-Position 2 |
| Cary Condotta | Republican |
House District 12-Position 1 |
| Norm Johnson | Republican |
House District 14-Position 1 |
| Terry Nealey | Republican |
House District 16-Position 2 |
| Liz Pike | Republican |
House District 18-Position 2 |
| Melanie Stambaugh | Republican |
House District 25-Position 1 |
| Joyce McDonald | Republican |
House District 25-Position 2 |
| Ruth Kagi |  Democratic |
House District 32-Position 2 |
| Dan Kristiansen | Republican |
House District 39-Position 1 |
| Kristine Lytton | Democratic |
House District 40-Position 1 |
| Judy Clibborn | Democratic |
House District 41-Position 2 |
| Joan McBride | Democratic |
House District 48-Position 2 |
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the Washington House of Representatives as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Competitive seats: In 2016, four Democratic seats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. Nine Republican seats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. See the 2018 races to watch here.
- Majority held less than 55 percent of seats: Heading into the 2018 elections, Democrats controlled 50 seats of 98 seats, which is 51.0 percent of the total.
Battleground races
| Washington House of Representatives Battleground races |
|---|
| Democratic seats |
| District 28-Position 2
|
| District 30-Position 1
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| District 30-Position 2
|
| District 44-Position 1
|
| Republican seats |
| District 5-Position 1
|
| District 5-Position 2
|
| District 17-Position 1
|
| District 19-Position 1
|
| District 28-Position 1
|
| District 35-Position 1
|
| District 35-Position 2
|
| District 42-Position 1
|
| District 44-Position 2
|
Ballotpedia identified 13 battleground races in the Washington House of Representatives 2018 elections: four Democratic seats and nine Republican seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
District 5-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Democrat Bill Ramos defeated Republican Chad Magendanz. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Jay Rodne (R) was first appointed in 2004. He was re-elected in 2016. He received 51.9 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 3.9 points. District 5 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 5 by 17.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9.1 points. |
District 5-Position 2
Who won this race?
| Democrat Lisa Callan defeated Republican incumbent Paul Graves. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Paul Graves (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 53.8 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 7.5 points. District 5 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 5 by 17.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9.1 points. |
District 17-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Vicki Kraft defeated Democrat Tanisha Harris. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Vicki Kraft (R) was first elected in 2016. She received 51.7 percent of the vote and defeated Independent Democrat Sam Kim by 3.3 points. District 17 was one of 19 Washington state legislative districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 17 by 1.4 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 1.1 points. |
District 19-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Jim Walsh defeated Democrat Erin Frasier. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) was first elected in 2016. He received 50.5 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 1.0 points. District 19 was one of 19 Washington state legislative districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 19 by 8.9 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9.9 points. |
District 28-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Democrat Mari Leavitt defeated Republican incumbent Dick Muri. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Dick Muri (R) was first appointed in 2013. He was re-elected in 2016. He received 52.1 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 4.2 points. District 28 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 28 by 13.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 11.1 points. |
District 28-Position 2
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Christine Kilduff defeated Republican Maia Espinoza. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Christine Kilduff (D) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. She received 54.7 percent of the vote and defeated her Republican challenger by 9.4 points. District 28 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 28 by 13.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 11.1 points. |
District 30-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Mike Pellicciotti defeated Republican Linda Kochmar. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Mike Pellicciotti (D) was first elected in 2016. He received 54.4 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent Linda Kochmar by 8.8 points. District 30 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 30 by 20.8 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 19.5 points. |
District 30-Position 2
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Kristine Reeves defeated Republican Mark Greene. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Kristine Reeves (D) was first elected in 2016. She received 51.1 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent Teri Hickel by 2.2 points. District 30 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 30 by 20.8 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 19.5 points. |
District 35-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Dan Griffey defeated Democrat James Thomas. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Dan Griffey (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 54.99 percent of the vote and defeated Independent Democrat Irene Bowling by 9.98 points. District 35 was one of 19 Washington state legislative districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 35 by 2.3 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 5.5 points. |
District 35-Position 2
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Drew MacEwen defeated Democrat David Daggett. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Drew MacEwen (R) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 54.2 percent of the vote and defeated Independent Democrat Craig Patti by 8.4 points. District 35 was one of 19 Washington state legislative districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 35 by 2.3 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 5.5 points. |
District 42-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Luanne Van Werven defeated Democrat Justin Boneau. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Luanne Van Werven (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. She received 54.6 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 8.4 points. District 42 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 42 by 3.1 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 2.3 points. |
District 44-Position 1
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent John Lovick defeated Republican Jeff Sax. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent John Lovick (D) was first appointed in June 2016 and was elected in November 2016. He received 52.0 percent of the vote and defeated his Republican challenger by 4.0 points. District 44 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 44 by 10.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 10.5 points. |
District 44-Position 2
Who won this race?
| Democrat Jared Mead defeated Republican incumbent Mark Harmsworth. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Mark Harmsworth (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 54.6 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 9.1 points. District 44 was one of 30 Washington state legislative districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 44 by 10.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 10.5 points. |
Battleground races map
Washington political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, Democrats increased their majority in the Washington House of Representatives from 50-48 to 57-41.
| Washington House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 50 | 57 | |
| Republican Party | 48 | 41 | |
| Total | 98 | 98 | |
2016
In the 2016 elections, no changes occurred to the partisan balance of the Washington House of Representatives.
| Washington House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 50 | 50 | |
| Republican Party | 48 | 48 | |
| Total | 98 | 98 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans gained control of the state Senate through coalitions following the 2012 elections, moving Washington's state government to divided control. Prior to that, Democrats had held a trifecta since the 2004 elections.
Washington Party Control: 1992-2024
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R[3] | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | S | S | S | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[4] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[5] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[6] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Candidate and office information
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Chapter 29A.24 of the Washington Election Code
A candidate who desires to have his or her name printed on the ballot for election to an office other than president or vice president must complete and file a declaration of candidacy. The candidate must do the following:
- declare that he or she is a registered voter within the jurisdiction of the office for which he or she is filing (the candidate must include the address at which he or she is registered)
- indicate the position for which he or she is filing
- state a party preference, if the office is a partisan office
- indicate the amount of the filing fee accompanying the declaration of candidacy (the candidate may also indicate that he or she is filing a petition in lieu of the filing fee)
- sign the declaration of candidacy, stating that the information provided on the form is true and swearing or affirming that he or she will support the constitution and laws of the United States and the constitution and laws of the state of Washington[7]
The filing period for candidates begins on the first Monday in May and ends the following Friday in the year in which the office is scheduled to be voted upon. For statewide offices and state legislative districts, candidates file with the secretary of state. Candidates must also submit the declaration of candidacy to the Washington Public Disclosure Commission within one business day after the filing period has ended.[8][9]
A filing fee equal to 1 percent of the annual salary of the office at the time of filing must accompany the declaration of candidacy for any office with a fixed annual salary of more than $1,000. For offices that pay less than $1,000, candidates must pay a filing fee of $10.[10] A candidate who lacks sufficient assets or income at the time of filing may submit with his or her declaration of candidacy a filing fee petition. The petition must contain signatures from registered voters equal to the number of dollars of the filing fee.
For write-in candidates
Any person who desires to be a write-in candidate and have his or her votes counted at a primary or general election can file a declaration of candidacy with the Washington Secretary of State and the Washington Public Disclosure Commission up to 8:00 p.m. on the day of the primary or general election. A declaration of candidacy for a write-in candidate must be accompanied by a filing fee or a filing fee petition with the required signatures if filing within 18 days of the election (fees and signature requirements are the same as those summarized above).[11]
Qualifications
Section 7 of Article 2 of the Washington State Constitution states, "No person shall be eligible to the legislature who shall not be a citizen of the United States and a qualified voter in the district for which he is chosen."
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2024[12] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $60,191/year for senators. $61,997/year for representatives. | $202/day |
When sworn in
Washington legislators assume office the second Monday of January.[13]
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Clallam County, Washington | 2.76% | 0.38% | 3.30% | ||||
| Cowlitz County, Washington | 13.32% | 4.44% | 11.15% | ||||
| Grays Harbor County, Washington | 6.99% | 14.11% | 14.56% | ||||
| Mason County, Washington | 5.81% | 7.09% | 8.66% | ||||
| Pacific County, Washington | 6.74% | 11.52% | 14.07% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[14][15]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
| 1 | 59.66% | 37.93% | D+21.7 | 61.73% | 30.36% | D+31.4 | |
| 2 | 47.71% | 49.88% | R+2.2 | 37.79% | 53.05% | R+15.3 | |
| 3 | 57.66% | 38.63% | D+19 | 51.82% | 38.12% | D+13.7 | |
| 4 | 40.00% | 57.37% | R+17.4 | 34.91% | 56.36% | R+21.4 | |
| 5 | 53.41% | 44.29% | D+9.1 | 54.74% | 37.12% | D+17.6 | |
| 6 | 46.76% | 50.72% | R+4 | 44.72% | 46.75% | R+2 | |
| 7 | 36.16% | 61.01% | R+24.9 | 29.00% | 63.45% | R+34.5 | |
| 8 | 36.10% | 61.49% | R+25.4 | 34.54% | 57.03% | R+22.5 | |
| 9 | 37.70% | 59.71% | R+22 | 35.13% | 56.40% | R+21.3 | |
| 10 | 50.21% | 47.38% | D+2.8 | 46.94% | 45.07% | D+1.9 | |
| 11 | 67.51% | 30.27% | D+37.2 | 67.74% | 25.40% | D+42.3 | |
| 12 | 39.91% | 57.67% | R+17.8 | 37.34% | 55.97% | R+18.6 | |
| 13 | 35.70% | 61.75% | R+26 | 31.04% | 61.91% | R+30.9 | |
| 14 | 42.63% | 54.97% | R+12.3 | 38.98% | 54.23% | R+15.2 | |
| 15 | 45.75% | 52.31% | R+6.6 | 42.51% | 51.74% | R+9.2 | |
| 16 | 38.20% | 59.21% | R+21 | 36.00% | 56.67% | R+20.7 | |
| 17 | 48.28% | 49.36% | R+1.1 | 45.51% | 46.88% | R+1.4 | |
| 18 | 43.85% | 54.12% | R+10.3 | 42.36% | 50.56% | R+8.2 | |
| 19 | 53.59% | 43.66% | D+9.9 | 41.57% | 50.52% | R+8.9 | |
| 20 | 40.98% | 56.26% | R+15.3 | 30.96% | 61.41% | R+30.4 | |
| 21 | 61.52% | 36.25% | D+25.3 | 62.27% | 30.19% | D+32.1 | |
| 22 | 63.17% | 33.68% | D+29.5 | 60.67% | 30.15% | D+30.5 | |
| 23 | 57.91% | 39.72% | D+18.2 | 56.69% | 34.37% | D+22.3 | |
| 24 | 54.21% | 42.81% | D+11.4 | 48.95% | 43.35% | D+5.6 | |
| 25 | 50.87% | 46.92% | D+4 | 45.23% | 46.56% | R+1.3 | |
| 26 | 49.33% | 48.06% | D+1.3 | 45.36% | 45.35% | D+0 | |
| 27 | 67.29% | 30.00% | D+37.3 | 65.15% | 26.43% | D+38.7 | |
| 28 | 54.44% | 43.37% | D+11.1 | 52.61% | 38.96% | D+13.7 | |
| 29 | 62.55% | 34.97% | D+27.6 | 54.47% | 36.76% | D+17.7 | |
| 30 | 58.70% | 39.18% | D+19.5 | 56.77% | 35.96% | D+20.8 | |
| 31 | 47.88% | 49.93% | R+2.1 | 41.61% | 50.16% | R+8.5 | |
| 32 | 70.64% | 26.92% | D+43.7 | 71.67% | 21.56% | D+50.1 | |
| 33 | 65.65% | 32.25% | D+33.4 | 64.85% | 28.57% | D+36.3 | |
| 34 | 77.41% | 20.25% | D+57.2 | 79.30% | 14.85% | D+64.4 | |
| 35 | 51.47% | 45.95% | D+5.5 | 44.25% | 46.59% | R+2.3 | |
| 36 | 81.82% | 15.34% | D+66.5 | 85.25% | 9.15% | D+76.1 | |
| 37 | 86.30% | 11.18% | D+75.1 | 87.06% | 8.13% | D+78.9 | |
| 38 | 59.99% | 37.08% | D+22.9 | 53.38% | 37.81% | D+15.6 | |
| 39 | 49.44% | 47.52% | D+1.9 | 40.00% | 50.75% | R+10.7 | |
| 40 | 62.09% | 34.70% | D+27.4 | 62.61% | 29.29% | D+33.3 | |
| 41 | 60.00% | 38.22% | D+21.8 | 67.76% | 26.09% | D+41.7 | |
| 42 | 49.67% | 47.37% | D+2.3 | 47.57% | 44.43% | D+3.1 | |
| 43 | 85.99% | 10.63% | D+75.4 | 88.74% | 5.96% | D+82.8 | |
| 44 | 54.08% | 43.61% | D+10.5 | 50.96% | 40.24% | D+10.7 | |
| 45 | 58.18% | 39.63% | D+18.6 | 64.80% | 28.03% | D+36.8 | |
| 46 | 78.25% | 19.15% | D+59.1 | 81.92% | 12.42% | D+69.5 | |
| 47 | 55.53% | 42.30% | D+13.2 | 54.37% | 38.29% | D+16.1 | |
| 48 | 61.67% | 35.86% | D+25.8 | 68.17% | 25.02% | D+43.2 | |
| 49 | 57.30% | 40.04% | D+17.3 | 54.21% | 37.87% | D+16.3 | |
| Total | 56.16% | 41.29% | D+14.9 | 54.30% | 38.07% | D+16.2 | |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Washington House of Representatives
- Washington State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Washington state legislative Top 2 primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "2018 Candidates Who Have Filed," accessed May 31, 2018
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Democrats gained full control of the state Senate after a special election on November 7, 2017.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Washington Election Code, "Chapter 29A.24.031," accessed April 29, 2025
- ↑ Washington Election Code, "Chapter 29A.24.050," accessed April 29, 2025
- ↑ Washington Election Code, "Chapter 29A.24.070," accessed April 29, 2025
- ↑ Washington Election Code, "Chapter 29A.24.091," accessed April 29, 2025
- ↑ Washington Election Code, "Chapter 29A.24.311," accessed April 29, 2025
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Washington State Legislature, "RCW 44.04.021 Commencement of terms of office," accessed February 17, 2021
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
