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Wyoming House of Representatives elections, 2018

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2020
2016
2018 Wyoming
House elections
Flag of Wyoming.png
GeneralNovember 6, 2018
PrimaryAugust 21, 2018
Past election results
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2018 elections
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Republicans held their supermajority in the 2018 elections for Wyoming House of Representatives, winning 50 seats to Democrats' nine, with an independent candidate picking up one seat. All of the chamber's 60 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 51 seats to Democrats' nine.

The Republican Party maintained its trifecta in Wyoming in 2018 by holding its majorities in the state Senate and House and by retaining the governorship.

The Wyoming House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

Wyoming state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

See also: State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintained supermajority status in both chambers of the Wyoming State Legislature in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 15 out of 30 seats were up for election. Republicans maintained their supermajority in the Wyoming State Senate at 27-3. Three Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary and one Democratic incumbent was defeated in the general election.

The Wyoming House of Representatives held elections for all 60 seats. The Republican supermajority in the House of Representatives was reduced. Before the election, Republicans held 51 seats and Democrats held nine seats. Following the election, Republicans held 50 seats, Democrats held nine seats, and an independent held one seat. One Democratic incumbent and two Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

  • Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

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Candidates

See also: Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

Note: Traci Ciepiela withdrew from the District 17 race in October 2018. Her name still appeared on the general election ballot.[1]

Wyoming House of Representatives General Election 2018

  • Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
  • Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office Democratic Party Democratic Republican Party Republican Other
District 1

Green check mark transparent.pngTyler Lindholm (i)

District 2

Green check mark transparent.pngHans Hunt (i)

District 3

Green check mark transparent.pngEric Barlow (i)

District 4

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Kirkbride (i)

District 5

Joan Brinkley  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngShelly Duncan

District 6

Green check mark transparent.pngAaron Clausen (i)

District 7

Green check mark transparent.pngSue Wilson (i)

District 8

Mitch Guthrie

Green check mark transparent.pngBob Nicholas (i)

District 9

Green check mark transparent.pngLandon Brown (i)

District 10

Jenefer Pasqua  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Eklund Jr. (i)

District 11

Calob Taylor

Green check mark transparent.pngJared Olsen (i)

District 12

Ryan Lindsey  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngClarence Styvar (i)

District 13

Green check mark transparent.pngCathy Connolly (i)

District 14

Lorraine Saulino-Klein  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Furphy (i)

District 15

Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Burkhart (i)

District 16

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Yin  Candidate Connection

Barbara Allen

District 17

Green check mark transparent.pngJoAnn Dayton (i)

Traci Ciepiela

District 18

Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Crank (i)

District 19

Green check mark transparent.pngDanny Eyre (i)

District 20

Green check mark transparent.pngAlbert Sommers (i)

District 21

Green check mark transparent.pngEvan J. Simpson (i)

District 22

Marti Halverson (i)

Green check mark transparent.pngJim Roscoe (Independent)

District 23

Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Schwartz (i)

Alex Muromcew

District 24

Paul Fees

Green check mark transparent.pngSandy Newsome

District 25

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Laursen (i)

District 26

Green check mark transparent.pngJamie Flitner (i)  Candidate Connection

District 27

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Greear (i)

District 28

Howie Samelson

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Winter

District 29

Green check mark transparent.pngMark Kinner (i)

District 30

Green check mark transparent.pngMark Jennings (i)

District 31

Green check mark transparent.pngScott Clem (i)

Dave Hardesty (Independent)

District 32

Green check mark transparent.pngTimothy Hallinan (i)

Chad Trebby (Independent)

District 33

Green check mark transparent.pngAndi LeBeau

Jim Allen (i)

District 34

Green check mark transparent.pngTim Salazar (i)

District 35

Green check mark transparent.pngJoe MacGuire (i)

District 36

Debbie Bovee (i)

Green check mark transparent.pngArt Washut  Candidate Connection

District 37

Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Harshman (i)

District 38

Green check mark transparent.pngTom Walters (i)

District 39

Green check mark transparent.pngStan Blake (i)

District 40

Green check mark transparent.pngRichard Tass

Chris Schock (Independent)

District 41

Sean Castaneda

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Henderson (i)

District 42

Juliet Daniels

Green check mark transparent.pngJim Blackburn (i)

District 43

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Zwonitzer (i)

District 44

Green check mark transparent.pngSara Burlingame

Paul Johnson

District 45

Green check mark transparent.pngCharles Pelkey (i)  Candidate Connection

Roxie Jackson Hensley

District 46

Jackie Grimes  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Haley (i)

District 47

Green check mark transparent.pngJerry Paxton (i)

District 48

Green check mark transparent.pngClark Stith (i)

District 49

Green check mark transparent.pngGarry Piiparinen (i)

District 50

Mike Specht

Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Northrup (i)

District 51

Green check mark transparent.pngCyrus Western

District 52

Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Pownall (i)

District 53

Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Edwards (i)

District 54

Mark Calhoun

Green check mark transparent.pngLloyd Charles Larsen (i)

District 55

Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Miller (i)

Bethany Baldes (Libertarian Party)

District 56

Green check mark transparent.pngJerry Obermueller (i)

District 57

Jane Ifland

Green check mark transparent.pngChuck Gray (i)

District 58

Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Sweeney (i)

District 59

Laurie Longtine

Green check mark transparent.pngCarl Loucks (i)

District 60

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Freeman (i)


Primary candidates

The candidate list below is based on a list provided by the Wyoming Secretary of State website on June 1, 2018. The filing deadline for the August primary was on June 1, 2018.[2]

Wyoming House of Representatives Primary Election 2018

  • Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
  • Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office Democratic Party Democratic Republican Party Republican Other
District 1

Green check mark transparent.pngTyler Lindholm (i)

District 2

Green check mark transparent.pngHans Hunt (i)

District 3

Green check mark transparent.pngEric Barlow (i)

District 4

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Kirkbride (i)

District 5

Green check mark transparent.pngJoan Brinkley  Candidate Connection

Roseanna Davison
Green check mark transparent.pngShelly Duncan
Ruth Van Mark

District 6

Green check mark transparent.pngAaron Clausen (i)

District 7

Green check mark transparent.pngSue Wilson (i)
John Lyttle

District 8

Green check mark transparent.pngMitch Guthrie

Green check mark transparent.pngBob Nicholas (i)

District 9

Green check mark transparent.pngLandon Brown (i)

District 10

Green check mark transparent.pngJenefer Pasqua  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Eklund Jr. (i)
Donn Edmunds

District 11

Green check mark transparent.pngCalob Taylor

Green check mark transparent.pngJared Olsen (i)

District 12

Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Lindsey  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngClarence Styvar (i)
Connie Czarnecki

District 13

Green check mark transparent.pngCathy Connolly (i)

District 14

Narina Nunez
Green check mark transparent.pngLorraine Saulino-Klein  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Furphy (i)

District 15

Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Burkhart (i)

District 16

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Yin  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngBarbara Allen

District 17

Green check mark transparent.pngJoAnn Dayton (i)

Green check mark transparent.pngTraci Ciepiela

District 18

Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Crank (i)
Scott Heiner

District 19

Green check mark transparent.pngDanny Eyre (i)
Karl Allred

District 20

Green check mark transparent.pngAlbert Sommers (i)

District 21

Green check mark transparent.pngEvan J. Simpson (i)

District 22

Green check mark transparent.pngMarti Halverson (i)
Bill Winney

District 23

Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Schwartz (i)

District 24

Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Fees

Richard Jones  Candidate Connection
Green check mark transparent.pngSandy Newsome
Denise Shirley

District 25

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Laursen (i)

District 26

Green check mark transparent.pngJamie Flitner (i)  Candidate Connection

District 27

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Greear (i)

District 28

Green check mark transparent.pngHowie Samelson

Tim Morrison
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Winter

District 29

Green check mark transparent.pngMark Kinner (i)
Steven Cain

District 30

Green check mark transparent.pngMark Jennings (i)
Gail Symons

District 31

Green check mark transparent.pngScott Clem (i)

District 32

Green check mark transparent.pngTimothy Hallinan (i)

District 33

Green check mark transparent.pngAndi LeBeau

Green check mark transparent.pngJim Allen (i)

District 34

Green check mark transparent.pngTim Salazar (i)

District 35

Green check mark transparent.pngJoe MacGuire (i)

District 36

Green check mark transparent.pngDebbie Bovee (i)

Green check mark transparent.pngArt Washut  Candidate Connection

District 37

Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Harshman (i)
Gregory Flesvig

District 38

Green check mark transparent.pngTom Walters (i)

District 39

Green check mark transparent.pngStan Blake (i)

District 40

Green check mark transparent.pngRichard Tass

District 41

Green check mark transparent.pngSean Castaneda

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Henderson (i)

District 42

Green check mark transparent.pngJuliet Daniels

Green check mark transparent.pngJim Blackburn (i)

District 43

Green check mark transparent.pngDan Zwonitzer (i)

District 44

Green check mark transparent.pngSara Burlingame
Floyd Esquibel

Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Johnson
John Romero-Martinez

District 45

Green check mark transparent.pngCharles Pelkey (i)  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngRoxie Jackson Hensley

District 46

Green check mark transparent.pngJackie Grimes  Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Haley (i)

District 47

Green check mark transparent.pngJerry Paxton (i)
Julie McCallister

District 48

Green check mark transparent.pngClark Stith (i)

District 49

Green check mark transparent.pngGarry Piiparinen (i)

District 50

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Specht

Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Northrup (i)

District 51

William Adsit
Robert Griffin
Green check mark transparent.pngCyrus Western

District 52

Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Pownall (i)
Harry Averett

District 53

Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Edwards (i)

District 54

Green check mark transparent.pngLloyd Charles Larsen (i)

District 55

Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Miller (i)

District 56

Green check mark transparent.pngJerry Obermueller (i)
Kris Gaddis

District 57

Green check mark transparent.pngJane Ifland

Green check mark transparent.pngChuck Gray (i)
Daniel Sandoval

District 58

Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Sweeney (i)
Charles Schoenwolf

District 59

Green check mark transparent.pngLaurie Longtine

Green check mark transparent.pngCarl Loucks (i)

District 60

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Freeman (i)

Margins of victory

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Wyoming House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

  • Elections won
  • Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
  • Elections won without opposition
  • Average margin of victory[3]
Wyoming House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party Elections won Elections won by less than 10% Unopposed elections Average margin of victory[3]
Democratic Party Democratic
9
2
3
15.0%
Republican Party Republican
50
6
30
26.1%
Grey.png Other
1
0
0
11.4%
Total
60
8
33
17.5%



The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Wyoming House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District Winning Party Losing Party Margin of Victory
Wyoming House of Representatives District 41
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
1.5%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 55
Ends.png Republican
Specialsession.png Libertarian
1.6%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 33
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
2.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 14
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
2.6%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 44
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
3.4%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 54
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
5.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 11
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
7.5%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 46
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
8.8%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 22
Grey.png Independent
Ends.png Republican
11.4%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 36
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
12.0%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 12
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
12.2%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 8
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
15.8%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 17
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
19.2%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 16
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
19.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 45
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
20.2%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 40
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
20.6%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 57
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
21.8%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 23
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
25.8%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 42
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
31.9%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 59
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
33.7%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 32
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
35.0%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 31
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
38.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 24
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
45.0%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 28
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
50.6%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 5
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
55.1%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 10
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
60.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 50
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
62.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 1
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 13
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 15
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 2
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 20
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 21
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 25
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 26
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 27
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 3
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 34
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 35
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 38
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 39
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 4
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 43
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 48
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 49
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 53
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 6
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 60
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 9
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 7
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 18
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 19
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 29
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 30
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 37
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 47
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 51
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 52
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 56
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Wyoming House of Representatives District 58
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed


Seats flipped

See also: State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in the Wyoming House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Wyoming House of Representatives
District Incumbent 2018 winner Direction of flip
Wyoming House of Representatives District 22 Republican Party Marti Halverson Grey.png Jim Roscoe R to Independent
Wyoming House of Representatives District 33 Republican Party Jim Allen Democratic Party Andrea Clifford R to D
Wyoming House of Representatives District 36 Democratic Party Debbie Bovee Republican Party Art Washut D to R

Incumbents retiring

Seven incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018. Those incumbents were:

Name Party Office
Cheri Steinmetz Ends.png Republican House District 5
Mike Gierau Electiondot.png Democratic House District 16
Scott Court Ends.png Republican House District 24
Nathan Winters Ends.png Republican House District 28
Mike Madden Ends.png Republican House District 40
James Byrd Electiondot.png Democratic House District 44
Bo Biteman Ends.png Republican House District 51

Process to become a candidate

See also: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Wyoming

DocumentIcon.jpg See statutes: Title 22-5 of the Wyoming Election Code

Major party candidates

A candidate seeking the nomination of a major party for state or federal office must be registered with the party whose nomination he or she seeks. The candidate must submit an application for nomination form to the Wyoming Secretary of State. If running for state legislative office, the candidate must be a resident of the district in which he or she seeks election for at least 12 months preceding the election. If running for governor, the candidate must be a resident of the state for at least five years prior to the election. If running for another statewide office, the candidate must be a registered elector in the state.[4][5][6][7]

The application must be accompanied by a filing fee. No application will be considered valid without a filing fee. The candidate must file the application and filing fee no later than 81 days before the primary election.[8]

Filing fees by office[9]
Office Filing fee
Governor
United States Senator
Secretary of state
State auditor
State treasurer
$300
Wyoming House of Representatives
Wyoming State Senate
$100

Minor and provisional party candidates

A candidate seeking the nomination of a minor or provisional party is nominated by party convention. To be certified as the nominee of a minor or provisional party at a party's state convention, the candidate must submit an application for nomination to the Wyoming Secretary of State, along with the required filing fee (the filing fees are the same as those required of major party candidates). The candidate must file the requisite paperwork no later than 81 days prior the primary election.[10]

Independent candidates

An independent candidate for partisan office must be nominated by filing a signed petition. The petition must be approved by the Wyoming Secretary of State prior to circulation. The petition must be accompanied by the same fee required of party candidates. Petitions must be filed with the Wyoming Secretary of State no later than 70 days before a general election.[11][12][13]

For a statewide office, the petition must be signed by registered electors, which are defined as residents of the state eligible to vote for the petitioner, numbering at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast for United States Representative in the last general election for the entire state.[14]

For a state legislative office, the petition must be signed by registered electors equaling at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast for the office in that particular district in the last general election.[14]

Write-in candidates

Each person who requests to have all votes cast for him or her as a write-in candidate counted must file an application for candidacy together with the appropriate filing fee with Wyoming Secretary of State no later than two days after the election in which the person desires to have the write-in votes counted.[15]

Qualifications

See also: State legislature candidate requirements by state

Section 2 of Article 3 of the Wyoming Constitution states, "Senators shall be elected for the term of four (4) years and representatives for the term of two (2) years. The senators elected at the first election shall be divided by lot into two classes as nearly equal as may be. The seats of senators of the first class shall be vacated at the expiration of the first two years, and of the second class at the expiration of four years. No person shall be a senator who has not attained the age of twenty-five years, or a representative who has not attained the age of twenty-one years, and who is not a citizen of the United States and of this state and who has not, for at least twelve months next preceding his election resided within the county or district in which he was elected."

Salaries and per diem

See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2024[16]
SalaryPer diem
$150/day$109/day

When sworn in

See also: When state legislators assume office after a general election

Wyoming legislators assume office the first Monday in January in odd-numbered years.[17]

Wyoming political history

See also: Partisan composition of state houses and State government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, the Republican majority in the Wyoming House of Representatives was reduced from 51-9 to 50-9.

Wyoming House of Representatives
Party As of November 6, 2018 After November 7, 2018
     Democratic Party 9 9
     Republican Party 51 50
     Independent 0 1
Total 60 60

2016

In the 2016 elections, Republicans increased their majority in the Wyoming House of Representatives from 51-9 to 52-8.

Wyoming House of Representatives
Party As of November 7, 2016 After November 8, 2016
     Democratic Party 9 8
     Republican Party 51 52
Total 60 60

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Wyoming gained a state government trifecta in the 2010 elections. They previously had a trifecta in the state from 1995 to 2002.

Wyoming Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

State legislative wave elections
Year President Party Election type State legislative seats change Elections analyzed[18]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -1,022 7,365
1922 Harding R First midterm -907 6,907
1966 Johnson D First midterm[19] -782 7,561
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -769 7,179
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -702 7,627
2010 Obama D First midterm -702 7,306
1974 Ford R Second midterm[20] -695 7,481
1920 Wilson D Presidential -654 6,835
1930 Hoover R Presidential -640 7,361
1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -494 7,513

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »


Historical context

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Wyoming. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wyoming with 68.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 21.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wyoming cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wyoming supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 76.7 to 23.3 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Wyoming. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[21][22]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won five out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 13.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won three out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 24.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 55 out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 45 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 57 out of 60 state House districts in Wyoming with an average margin of victory of 51 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Sweetwater Now, "Traci Ciepiela Withdraws from the Election in the Race for the Wyoming House District #17," October 31, 2018
  2. Wyoming Secretary of State, "2018 Primary Election Candidate Roster," accessed June 14, 2018
  3. 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
  4. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-204," accessed March 13, 2025
  5. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-102(a)," accessed March 13, 2025
  6. Wyoming Secretary of State, "Federal Offices," accessed March 13, 2025
  7. Wyoming Secretary of State, "State Offices," accessed March 13, 2025
  8. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-209," accessed March 13, 2025
  9. Wyoming Secretary of State, "Election Division Fees," accessed March 13, 2025
  10. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-304," accessed March 13, 2025
  11. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-301," accessed March 13, 2025
  12. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-306," accessed March 13, 2025
  13. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-307," accessed March 13, 2025
  14. 14.0 14.1 Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-304," accessed March 13, 2025
  15. Wyoming Election Code, "Title 22-5-501," accessed March 13, 2025
  16. National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
  17. Justia, "2020 Wyoming Statutes Title 22 - Elections Chapter 2 - General Provisions Section 22-2-107 - When Elected State and County Officers Assume Offices.," accessed November 4, 2021
  18. The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
  19. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  20. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  21. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  22. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Current members of the Wyoming House of Representatives
Leadership
Speaker of the House:Chip Neiman
Majority Leader:Scott Heiner
Minority Leader:Mike Yin
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
Mike Yin (D)
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
John Bear (R)
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
District 41
District 42
District 43
Ann Lucas (R)
District 44
Lee Filer (R)
District 45
District 46
District 47
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
District 53
District 54
District 55
District 56
District 57
District 58
District 59
District 60
District 61
District 62
Republican Party (56)
Democratic Party (6)