This overview page compiles data from U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections with a margin of victory (MOV) of 10 percentage points or fewer between 2014 and 2022. On this page, you will find overview figures as well as highlights from and links to each individual analysis.
HIGHLIGHTS
The number of congressional races that were decided by ten percentage points or fewer peaked in 2018 with 102 races.
The average number of congressional races that were decided by ten percentage points or fewer each election was 75.
Of the 374 total congressional races decided by a margin of ten percentage points or fewer since 2014, the Democratic candidate won 197, while the Republican candidate won 177.
Of the 191 total congressional races decided by a margin of five percentage points or fewer, the Democratic candidate won 104, while the Republican candidate won 87.
Click a year below to read analysis from that year:
Overview
U.S. Senate, 2014-2024
U.S. House, 2014-2024
Congressional races decided by 10 percentage points or fewer where partisan control changed, 2018-2024
2024
- See also: Election results, 2024: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- See also: United States Congress elections, 2024
In the 2024 elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House, 43 candidates won an election by five percentage points or fewer, representing 9% of all congressional elections. Eighty candidates won an election by 10 percentage points or fewer, representing 17% of all congressional elections.
On this page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer in 2024.
HIGHLIGHTS
In 2024, 80 congressional races (11 Senate and 69 House) were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. In 2022, 85 races were decided by the same margin. In 2020, 89 were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer.
In 2024, 43 congressional races (six Senate and 37 House) were decided by five percentage points or fewer. In 2022, 46 congressional races (six Senate and 40 House) were decided by the same margin. In 2020, 42 (five Senate and 37 House) were decided by five percentage points or fewer.
Of the 80 congressional races in 2024 decided by a margin of 10 percentage points or fewer, the Democratic candidate won 52 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 28. Of the 43 congressional races in 2024 decided by a margin of five percentage points or fewer, the Democratic candidate won 26, while the Republican candidate won 17.
Democratic candidates won the largest number of congressional races with a margin of victory of 10 percentage points or fewer since 2014.
To read the full 2024 analysis, click here.
2022
- See also: Election results, 2022: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- See also: United States Congress elections, 2022
In the 2022 U.S. Senate and U.S. House, 46 candidates won an election by five percentage points or fewer, representing 10% of all Congressional elections. Eighty-five candidates won an election by ten percentage points or fewer, representing 18% of all Congressional elections.
On the 2022 analysis page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by ten percentage points or fewer in 2022.
HIGHLIGHTS
In 2022, 85 congressional races (ten Senate and 75 House) were decided by ten percentage points or fewer. In 2020, 89 races were decided by the same margin. In 2018, 102 were decided by ten percentage points or fewer.
In 2022, 46 congressional races (six Senate and 40 House) were decided by five percentage points or fewer. In 2020, 42 congressional races (five Senate and 37 House) were decided by less than a five percentage points margin, and in 2018, 50 (five Senate and 45 House) were.
Of the 85 congressional races in 2022 decided by a margin of ten percentage points or fewer, the Republican candidate won 34 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 51. Of the 46 congressional races in 2022 decided by a margin of five percentage points or fewer, the Democratic candidate won 26, while Republicans won 20.
Democrats gained one net seat in the U.S. Senate, and Republicans gained ten net seats in the U.S. House as a result of the 2022 elections.
Democratic candidates won the largest number of congressional races with a margin of victory of ten percentage points or fewer since 2014.
To read the full 2022 analysis, click here.
2020
- See also: Election results, 2020: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- See also: United States Congress elections, 2020
In the 2020 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate's margin of victory (MOV) in 89 races was less than 10 percentage points and was 5 percentage points or less in 42 races.
Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less represent approximately 18 percent of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections that took place in 2020. Of the 89 races decided by less than 10 percent, 18 resulted in a change in partisan control. Of those, three went from Republican to Democratic control and 15 went from Democratic to Republican control.
On this page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less in 2020, as well as full results tables for 2018, 2016, and 2014.
HIGHLIGHTS
In 2020, 89 congressional races (12 Senate and 77 House) were decided by less than 10 percent. In 2018, 102 races were decided by the same margin. In 2016, 42 were decided by 10 percent or less, and in 2014, 56 were.
In 2020, 42 congressional races (five Senate and 37 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2018, 50 congressional races (five Senate and 45 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2016, there were 22 such elections, and in 2014, 31.
Of the 89 congressional races in 2020 decided by a margin of less than 10 percent, the Republican candidate won 45 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 44. Of the 42 congressional races in 2020 decided by a margin of 5 percent or less, the Democratic candidate won 23, while Republicans won 19.
Democrats gained a net four seats in the U.S. Senate, and Republicans gained a net 12 seats in the U.S. House as a result of the 2020 elections.
To read the full 2020 analysis, click here.
2018
- See also: Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018
- See also: United States Congress elections, 2018
In the 2018 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate's margin of victory (MOV) in 102 races was less than 10 percent, and was 5 percent or less in 50 races. Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer represent approximately 22 percent of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections that took place in 2018.
On the 2018 analysis page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer in 2018, as well as full results tables for 2018, 2016, and 2014.
HIGHLIGHTS
In 2018, 102 congressional races (12 Senate and 90 House) were decided by less than 10 percent. In 2016, 42 were decided by the same margin, and in 2014, 56 were.
In 2018: 50 congressional races (five Senate and 45 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2016, there were 22 such elections, and in 2014, 31.
Of the 102 congressional races in 2018 decided by a margin of less than 10 percent, the Democratic candidate won 49 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 53. And of the 50 congressional races in 2018 decided by a margin of five percent or less, the Democratic candidate won 24, while Republicans won 26.
Republicans gained a net two seats in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats gained a net 40 seats in the U.S. House as a result of the 2018 elections.
To read the full 2018 analysis, click here.
See also
