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Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018

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Last updated April 9, 2019.

In the 2018 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate's margin of victory (MOV) in 102 races was less than 10 percent, and was 5 percent or less in 50 races.

On this page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less in 2018, as well as full results tables for 2018, 2016, and 2014.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • In 2018, 102 congressional races (12 Senate and 90 House) were decided by less than 10 percent. In 2016, 42 were decided by the same margin, and in 2014, 56 were.
  • In 2018: 50 congressional races (five Senate and 45 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2016, there were 22 such elections, and in 2014, 31.
  • Of the 102 congressional races in 2018 decided by a margin of less than 10 percent, the Democratic candidate won 49 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 53. And of the 50 congressional races in 2018 decided by a margin of five percent or less, the Democratic candidate won 24, while Republicans won 26.
  • Historical comparison

    Elections where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less

    In 2018, there were 102 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Twelve were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 90 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 49 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 53.

    In 2016, there were 42 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Nine were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 33 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The outcome of these elections was split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with each party winning 21 of these elections.

    In 2014, there were 56 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Seven were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 49 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 32 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 24.

    Elections where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less

    In 2018, there were 50 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 45 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 24 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 26.

    In 2016, there were 22 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 17 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 14 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won eight.

    In 2014, there were 31 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 26 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 17 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 14.


    2018 congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less

    Congressional races decided by 10 percent or less, 2018
    Winner District Margin of victory Party switch? Open seat?
    Rick Scott Republican Party U.S. Senate for Florida 0.12% Yes Yes
    Rob Woodall Republican Party Georgia's 7th Congressional District 0.15% No No
    Ben McAdams Democratic Party Utah's 4th Congressional District 0.26% Yes No
    Susan Wild Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District special 0.28% Yes Yes
    Chris Collins Republican Party New York's 27th Congressional District 0.38% No No
    Will Hurd Republican Party Texas' 23rd Congressional District 0.44% No No
    Jim Hagedorn Republican Party Minnesota's 1st Congressional District 0.45% Yes Yes
    TJ Cox Democratic Party California's 21st Congressional District 0.76% Yes No
    Rodney Davis Republican Party Illinois' 13th Congressional District 0.76% No No
    Steve Watkins Republican Party Kansas' 2nd Congressional District 0.85% No Yes
    Lucy McBath Democratic Party Georgia's 6th Congressional District 1.03% Yes No
    Jared Golden Democratic Party Maine's 2nd Congressional District 1.25% Yes No
    Andrew Kim Democratic Party New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District 1.29% Yes No
    Joe Cunningham Democratic Party South Carolina's 1st Congressional District 1.39% Yes Yes
    Kendra Horn Democratic Party Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District 1.40% Yes No
    Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Democratic Party Florida's 26th Congressional District 1.75% Yes No
    Anthony Brindisi Democratic Party New York's 22nd Congressional District 1.78% Yes No
    Xochitl Torres Small Democratic Party New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District 1.87% Yes Yes
    Abigail Spanberger Democratic Party Virginia's 7th Congressional District 1.94% Yes No
    Don Bacon Republican Party Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 1.99% No No
    Cindy Axne Democratic Party Iowa's 3rd Congressional District 2.16% Yes No
    Elaine Luria Democratic Party Virginia's 2nd Congressional District 2.24% Yes No
    Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Arizona 2.34% Yes Yes
    Brian Fitzpatrick Republican Party Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District 2.52% No Yes
    Ted Cruz Republican Party U.S. Senate for Texas 2.57% No No
    Chip Roy Republican Party Texas' 21st Congressional District 2.61% No Yes
    Scott Perry Republican Party Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District 2.64% No No
    John Carter Republican Party Texas' 31st Congressional District 2.91% No No
    Kenny Marchant Republican Party Texas' 24th Congressional District 3.07% No No
    Gil Cisneros Democratic Party California's 39th Congressional District 3.11% Yes Yes
    Andy Barr Republican Party Kentucky's 6th Congressional District 3.21% No No
    Joe Manchin Democratic Party U.S. Senate for West Virginia 3.31% No No
    Steve King Republican Party Iowa's 4th Congressional District 3.33% No No
    Duncan Hunter Republican Party California's 50th Congressional District 3.43% No No
    Jon Tester Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Montana 3.55% No No
    Elissa Slotkin Democratic Party Michigan's 8th Congressional District 3.83% Yes No
    Ann Wagner Republican Party Missouri's 2nd Congressional District 3.95% No No
    Lee Zeldin Republican Party New York's 1st Congressional District 4.09% No No
    Katie Porter Democratic Party California's 45th Congressional District 4.10% Yes No
    Troy Balderson Republican Party Ohio's 12th Congressional District 4.22% No No
    Collin Peterson Democratic Party Minnesota's 7th Congressional District 4.26% No No
    Michael McCaul Republican Party Texas' 10th Congressional District 4.27% No No
    Mike Kelly Republican Party Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District 4.28% No No
    Steve Chabot Republican Party Ohio's 1st Congressional District 4.42% No No
    Josh Harder Democratic Party California's 10th Congressional District 4.50% Yes No
    Fred Upton Republican Party Michigan's 6th Congressional District 4.55% No No
    Greg Gianforte Republican Party Montana's At-Large Congressional District 4.63% No No
    Kim Schrier Democratic Party Washington's 8th Congressional District 4.83% Yes Yes
    Pete Olson Republican Party Texas' 22nd Congressional District 4.91% No No
    Lauren Underwood Democratic Party Illinois' 14th Congressional District 5.00% Yes No
    Tom Malinowski Democratic Party New Jersey's 7th Congressional District 5.02% Yes No
    Jacky Rosen Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Nevada 5.03% Yes No
    Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Democratic Party Texas' 7th Congressional District 5.06% Yes No
    Abby Finkenauer Democratic Party Iowa's 1st Congressional District 5.06% Yes No
    Antonio Delgado Democratic Party New York's 19th Congressional District 5.21% Yes No
    John Katko Republican Party New York's 24th Congressional District 5.26% No No
    Jaime Herrera Beutler Republican Party Washington's 3rd Congressional District 5.34% No No
    Devin Nunes Republican Party California's 22nd Congressional District 5.44% No No
    Angie Craig Democratic Party Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District 5.51% Yes No
    Pete Stauber Republican Party Minnesota's 8th Congressional District 5.54% Yes Yes
    George Holding Republican Party North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District 5.62% No No
    Josh Hawley Republican Party U.S. Senate for Missouri 5.81% Yes No
    Mike Braun Republican Party U.S. Senate for Indiana 5.89% Yes No
    Donna Shalala Democratic Party Florida's 27th Congressional District 6.00% Yes Yes
    Ross Spano Republican Party Florida's 15th Congressional District 6.04% No Yes
    Ted Budd Republican Party North Carolina's 13th CongressionalDistrict 6.08% No No
    Mike Bost Republican Party Illinois' 12th Congressional District 6.18% No No
    Peter King Republican Party New York's 2nd Congressional District 6.22% No No
    Mary Gay Scanlon Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District special 6.26% Yes Yes
    French Hill Republican Party Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District 6.31% No No
    Max Rose Democratic Party New York's 11th Congressional District 6.45% Yes No
    Debbie Stabenow Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Michigan 6.51% No No
    Colin Allred Democratic Party Texas' 32nd Congressional District 6.52% Yes No
    Denver Riggleman Republican Party Virginia's 5th Congressional District 6.53% No Yes
    Don Young Republican Party Alaska's At-Large Congressional District 6.61% No No
    Haley Stevens Democratic Party Michigan's 11th Congressional District 6.68% Yes Yes
    Sherrod Brown Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Ohio 6.85% No No
    Harley Rouda Democratic Party California's 48th Congressional District 7.10% Yes No
    Sean Casten Democratic Party Illinois' 6th Congressional District 7.15% Yes No
    Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Party U.S. Senate for Mississippi 7.27% No No
    Daniel Crenshaw Republican Party Texas' 2nd Congressional District 7.29% No Yes
    Tim Walberg Republican Party Michigan's 7th Congressional District 7.59% No No
    Ronald Wright Republican Party Texas' 6th Congressional District 7.66% No Yes
    Jeff Van Drew Democratic Party New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District 7.67% Yes Yes
    Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Arizona's 1st Congressional District 7.69% No No
    Scott Tipton Republican Party Colorado's 3rd Congressional District 7.97% No No
    Steven Horsford Democratic Party Nevada's 4th Congressional District 8.18% No Yes
    Tom McClintock Republican Party California's 4th Congressional District 8.26% No No
    Dianne Feinstein Democratic Party U.S. Senate for California 8.33% No No
    Tom Reed Republican Party New York's 23rd Congressional District 8.49% No No
    Chris Pappas Democratic Party New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District 8.55% No Yes
    Brian Mast Republican Party Florida's 18th Congressional District 8.60% No No
    Katie Hill Democratic Party California's 25th Congressional District 8.73% Yes No
    Roger Williams Republican Party Texas' 25th Congressional District 8.75% No No
    Susie Lee Democratic Party Nevada's 3rd Congressional District 9.06% No Yes
    Vern Buchanan Republican Party Florida's 16th Congressional District 9.12% No No
    Matt Cartwright Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District 9.28% No No
    Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Arizona's 2nd Congressional District 9.49% Yes Yes
    Cathy McMorris Rodgers Republican Party Washington's 5th Congressional District 9.52% No No
    Sharice Davids Democratic Party Kansas' 3rd Congressional District 9.66% Yes No
    Jackie Walorski Republican Party Indiana's 2nd Congressional District 9.67% No No
    Doug LaMalfa Republican Party California's 1st Congressional District 9.77% No No

    2018 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2018 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2018


    Margin of Victory in 2018 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2018


    2016 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2016 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

    Margin of Victory in 2016 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2016

    2014 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2014 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2014

    Margin of Victory in 2014 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2014

    See also