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Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Hawaii District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard (D)
 
77.4
 
153,271
Image of Brian Evans
Brian Evans (R)
 
22.6
 
44,850

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 198,121
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 11, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Tulsi Gabbard (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Hawaii
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+19
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
Hawaii elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Hawaii, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Tulsi Gabbard (D), who was first elected in 2012.

Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District includes all of the Hawaiian islands except for southern Oahu. Hawaii, Kalawao, Kauai, and Maui counties and portions of Honolulu County are included in the district.[1]





Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Hawaii District 2

Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard defeated Brian Evans in the general election for U.S. House Hawaii District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard (D)
 
77.4
 
153,271
Image of Brian Evans
Brian Evans (R)
 
22.6
 
44,850

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 198,121
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Hawaii District 2

Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard defeated Sherry Alu Campagna and Anthony Tony Austin in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Hawaii District 2 on August 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard
 
83.5
 
94,629
Image of Sherry Alu Campagna
Sherry Alu Campagna
 
12.3
 
13,947
Image of Anthony Tony Austin
Anthony Tony Austin Candidate Connection
 
4.1
 
4,688

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 113,264
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Hawaii District 2

Brian Evans advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Hawaii District 2 on August 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Evans
Brian Evans
 
100.0
 
12,331

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 12,331
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

August 11 Democratic primary

Ballotpedia identified the August 11, 2018, Democratic primary as a Battleground primary. For more on the Democratic primary, click here. For more on the Republican primary, click here.

In Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, foreign policy became a leading issue in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary pitting incumbent Rep.Tulsi Gabbard (D) against two challengers.

Gabbard, a former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee until she resigned to endorse Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, was named the most popular politician in Hawaii by a Honolulu Civil Beat poll.[2][3]

Gabbard criticized Syrian regime change as a U.S. policy objective. That put her at odds with party leaders such as Barack Obama (D) and Hillary Clinton (D). This resulted in The Atlantic referring to her as "The GOP’s Favorite Democrat" in 2017.[4][5][6]

Hesitation to condemn President Donald Trump's Syria policy was a reason Daily Kos cited to explain polling that showed she may be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2018. The poll showed her statewide favorability rating drop from 64-19 percent in 2015 to 50-29 percent in 2017.[7][8][9]

The National Education Association (NEA), endorsed environmental scientist and Women’s March organizer Sherry Alu Campagna (D). In its endorsement, the organization’s state affiliate criticized what it called Gabbard’s "continued lack of fighting for human and civil rights."[10][11]

Campagna differed with Gabbard on immigration policy, with the challenger calling for the abolition of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).[12]

Challenger Anthony Tony Austin (D), who served as District Council Representative and Delegate for Oahu, also filed to run against Gabbard. His policy stances included universal single-payer healthcare and combating climate change through legislation.[13]

Gabbard had a significant lead in fundraising as of June 30 with $2.28 million in cash on hand, ahead of Campagna’s $2,405 and Austin’s $158.[14]

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District the 70th most Democratic nationally.[15]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.09. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.09 points toward that party.[16]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tulsi Gabbard Democratic Party $1,421,020 $1,452,103 $2,016,418 As of December 31, 2018
Brian Evans Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard (D) defeated Angela Aulani Kaaihue (R) and Richard Turner (Independent) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Gabbard defeated Shay Chan Hodges in the Democratic primary, while Kaaihue defeated Eric Hafner to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on August 13, 2016.[17][18]

U.S. House, Hawaii District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTulsi Gabbard Incumbent 81.2% 170,848
     Republican Angela Aulani Kaaihue 18.8% 39,668
Total Votes 210,516
Source: Hawaii Secretary of State


U.S. House, Hawaii District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTulsi Gabbard Incumbent 84.5% 80,026
Shay Chan Hodges 15.5% 14,643
Total Votes 94,669
Source: Hawaii Secretary of State
U.S. House, Hawaii District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAngela Aulani Kaaihue 55.9% 7,449
Eric Hafner 44.1% 5,876
Total Votes 13,325
Source: Hawaii Secretary of State

2014

See also: Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Hawaii held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tulsi Gabbard (D) defeated Kawika Crowley (R) and Joe Kent (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Hawaii District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTulsi Gabbard Incumbent 75.8% 141,996
     Republican Kawika Crowley 17.9% 33,624
     Libertarian Joe Kent 2.5% 4,692
Total Votes 180,312
Source: Hawaii Office of Elections

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Hawaii. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Hawaii with 62.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30 percent. In presidential elections between 1960 and 2016, Hawaii voted Democratic 86.67 percent of the time and Republican 13.33 percent of the time. The only presidential elections from 1960 to 2016 where Hawaii voted for the Republican candidate were the elections in 1972 and 1984. Richard Nixon (R) and Ronald Reagan (R), respectively, won nearly every state in those elections.[19] Hawaii voted Democratic in every presidential election from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Hawaii. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won all 51 state House districts in Hawaii with an average margin of victory of 42.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won all 51 state House districts in Hawaii with an average margin of victory of 31.7 points. Six of those districts were controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Hawaii heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Democrats controlled both chambers of the Hawaii State Legislature. They had a 45-6 majority in the state House and a 25-0 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Hawaii elections, 2018

Hawaii held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Hawaii
 HawaiiU.S.
Total population:1,425,157316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):6,4233,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:25.4%73.6%
Black/African American:2%12.6%
Asian:37.7%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:9.9%0.2%
Two or more:23.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:9.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91%86.7%
College graduation rate:30.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$69,515$53,889
Persons below poverty level:11.6%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Hawaii.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Hawaii's three largest cities were Urban Honolulu (pop. est. 350,395), East Honolulu (pop. est. 47,957), and Pearl City (pop. est. 47,241).[22]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Hawaii from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Hawaii Office of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Hawaii every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Hawaii 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 61.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 29.4% 31.6%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 27.7% 42.4%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 71.5% Republican Party John McCain 26.4% 45.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 53.7% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.0% 8.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 55.3% Republican Party George W. Bush 37.1% 18.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Hawaii from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Hawaii 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Brian Schatz 70.1% Republican Party John Carroll 21.2% 48.9%
2014 Democratic Party Brian Schatz 66.8% Republican Party Cam Cavasso 26.5% 40.3%
2012 Democratic Party Mazie Hirono 61.6% Republican Party Linda Lingle 36.8% 24.8%
2010 Democratic Party Daniel Inouye 71.9% Republican Party Cam Cavasso 20.7% 51.2%
2006 Democratic Party Daniel Akaka 60.3% Republican Party Cynthia Thielen 36.1% 24.2%
2004 Democratic Party Daniel Inouye 72.7% Republican Party Cam Cavasso 20.2% 52.5%
2000 Democratic Party Daniel Akaka 67.7% Republican Party John Carroll 22.8% 44.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Hawaii.

Election results (Governor), Hawaii 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party David Ige 49.0% Republican Party Duke Aiona 36.7% 12.3%
2010 Democratic Party Neil Abercrombie 57.8% Republican Party Duke Aiona 40.8% 17.0%
2006 Republican Party Linda Lingle 49.8% Democratic Party Randy Iwase 34.9% 14.9%
2002 Republican Party Linda Lingle 51.6% Democratic Party Mazie Hirono 47.0% 4.6%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Hawaii in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Hawaii 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2014 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2012 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2010 Republican Party 1 50.0% Democratic Party 1 50.0% Even
2008 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2006 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2004 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2002 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2000 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Hawaii Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty-six years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Hawaii Redistricting Map "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ Honolulu Civil Beat, "Civil Beat Poll: Tulsi Gabbard Is Hawaii’s Most Popular Politician," May 24, 2018
  3. ↑ NPR "Vice Chair of DNC Resigns To Support Bernie Sanders," February 28, 2016
  4. ↑ Vote Tulsi, "Vision," accessed July 31, 2018
  5. ↑ The Atlantic, "The GOP’s Favorite Democrat Goes to Syria," January 18, 2017
  6. ↑ Washington Post, "Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: The Democrat that Republicans love and the DNC can’t control," October 15, 2015
  7. ↑ BBC, "Clinton: 'The world will not waver, Assad must go,'" April 12, 2018
  8. ↑ Washington Post, "Assad must go, Obama says," August 18, 2011
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: New poll shows Assad-backing Tulsi Gabbard's popularity waning with Hawaii Democrats," June 08, 2017
  10. ↑ Sherry for Congress, "Endorsements, accessed July 27, 2018
  11. ↑ Honolulu Civil Beat, "Hawaii Teachers Union Backs Gabbard Opponent For Congress," May 21, 2018
  12. ↑ YouTube, "Sherry Campagna vs. Tulsi Gabbard: Constituents First + Abolish ICE," June 26, 2018
  13. ↑ Anthony Tony Austin, "3 Candidate Positions," accessed July 27, 2018
  14. ↑ FEC, "Hawaii 02," accessed July 27, 2018
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  16. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  17. ↑ Hawaii Secretary of State, "2016 Candidates," accessed June 8, 2016
  18. ↑ Politico, "Hawaii House Races Results," August 13, 2016
  19. ↑ 270towin.com, "Historical Presidential Elections," accessed August 2, 2017
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. ↑ Hawaii Demographics, "Hawaii Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
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Hawaii's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mazie Hirono (D)
Brian Schatz (D)
Representatives
District 1
Ed Case (D)
District 2
Democratic Party (4)

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