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Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr. (R)
 
68.6
 
172,167
Image of Paul Walker
Paul Walker (D)
 
31.4
 
78,849

Total votes: 251,016
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2020
2016
Kentucky's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 30, 2018
Primary: May 22, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
James Comer (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Kentucky
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+23
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Kentucky's 1st Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th
Kentucky elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Kentucky, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was James Comer (R), who was first elected in 2016.

Kentucky's 1st Congressional District is located in western Kentucky and stretches across the southern portion of the state. It includes Adair, Allen, Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Casey Christian, Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberland, Fulton, Graves, Henderson, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Logan, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McCracken, McLean, Metcalfe, Monroe, Muhlenberg, Ohio, Russell, Simpson, Taylor, Todd, Trigg, Union, and Webster counties and a part of Washington County.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Incumbent James Comer Jr. defeated Paul Walker in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr. (R)
 
68.6
 
172,167
Image of Paul Walker
Paul Walker (D)
 
31.4
 
78,849

Total votes: 251,016
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Paul Walker defeated Alonzo Pennington in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Walker
Paul Walker
 
81.2
 
75,148
Image of Alonzo Pennington
Alonzo Pennington
 
18.8
 
17,398

Total votes: 92,546
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Incumbent James Comer Jr. advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+23, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 23 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kentucky's 1st Congressional District the 25th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
James Comer Jr. Republican Party $721,796 $637,459 $168,900 As of December 31, 2018
Paul Walker Democratic Party $51,854 $50,083 $1,771 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Kentucky's 1st Congressional District seat was left open following incumbent Ed Whitfield's decision to retire. James Comer (R) defeated Sam Gaskins (D) and Terry McIntosh (Write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Comer defeated Jason Batts, Miles Caughey Jr., and Michael Pape in the Republican primary. On the other side of the aisle, Sam Gaskins ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[4][5][6]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJames Comer 72.6% 216,959
     Democratic Sam Gaskins 27.3% 81,710
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 332
Total Votes 299,001
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State


U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJames Comer 60.6% 24,342
Michael Pape 23.3% 9,357
Jason Batts 13.9% 5,578
Miles Caughey 2.2% 896
Total Votes 40,173
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Ed Whitfield (R) defeated Charles Kendall Hatchett (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngEd Whitfield Incumbent 73.1% 173,022
     Democratic Charles Kendall Hatchett 26.9% 63,596
Total Votes 236,618
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 120 Kentucky counties—0.83 percent—is a pivot county. Pivot counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Elliott County, Kentucky 44.13% 2.50% 25.17%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 32.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, Kentucky voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 26.3 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kentucky voted Republican all five times.[7]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kentucky. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 42 points. Trump won 20 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Kentucky heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Republicans held five of 11 state executive positions, and Democrats held two. Four state executive positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of Kentucky was Republican Matt Bevin.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • Kentucky was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Kentucky elections, 2018

Kentucky held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Kentucky
 KentuckyU.S.
Total population:4,424,611316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):39,4863,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:87.6%73.6%
Black/African American:7.9%12.6%
Asian:1.3%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:22.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$43,740$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kentucky.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Kentucky had a population of approximately 4,436,974 people, with its three largest cities being Louisville (pop. est. 616,261), Lexington (pop. est. 318,449), and Bowling Green (pop. est. 65,234).[10] The chart on the right shows demographic information for Kentucky from 2010 to 2015. The graphs below show racial demographics and levels of educational attainment in Kentucky compared to the rest of the country.

State history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Kentucky from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Kentucky State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Kentucky every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Kentucky 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 62.5% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 32.7% 29.8%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 60.5% Democratic Party Barack Obama 37.8% 22.7%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 57.4% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.2% 16.2%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.6% Democratic Party John Kerry 39.7% 19.9%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.5% Democratic Party Al Gore 41.2% 15.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2002-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Kentucky from 2002 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Kentucky 2002-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Rand Paul 57.3% Democratic Party Jim Gray 42.7% 14.6%
2014 Republican Party Mitch McConnell 56.2% Democratic Party Alison Lundergan Grimes 40.7% 15.5%
2010 Republican Party Rand Paul 55.7% Democratic Party Jack Conway 44.2% 11.5%
2008 Republican Party Mitch McConnell 53.0% Democratic Party Bruce Lunsford 47.0% 6.0%
2004 Republican Party Jim Bunning 50.7% Democratic Party Daniel Mongiardo 49.3% 1.4%
2002 Republican Party Mitch McConnell 64.7% Democratic Party Lois Combs Weinberg 35.3% 29.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2003-2015

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2003 and 2015. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Kentucky.

Election results (Governor), Kentucky 2003-2015
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2015 Republican Party Matt Bevin 52.5% Democratic Party Jack Conway 43.8% 8.7%
2011 Democratic Party Steve Beshear 55.7% Republican Party David Williams 35.3% 20.4%
2007 Democratic Party Steve Beshear 58.7% Republican Party Ernie Fletcher 41.3% 17.4%
2003 Republican Party Ernie Fletcher 55.0% Democratic Party Ben Chandler 45.0% 10.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Kentucky in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Kentucky 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2014 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2012 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2010 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2008 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2006 Republican Party 4 66.7% Democratic Party 2 33.3% R+2
2004 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2002 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.7% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Andy Barr (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)