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Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett (R)
 
65.9
 
172,856
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos (D) Candidate Connection
 
33.1
 
86,668
Greg Samples (Independent)
 
0.4
 
967
Image of Jeffrey Grunau
Jeffrey Grunau (Independent)
 
0.3
 
657
Image of Marc Whitmire
Marc Whitmire (Independent)
 
0.2
 
637
Keith LaTorre (Independent)
 
0.1
 
349

Total votes: 262,134
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2020
2016
Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
John Duncan, Jr. (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+20
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Tennessee elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Tennessee, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was John Duncan, Jr. (R), who was first elected in 1988. On July 31, 2017, Duncan announced that he would not seek re-election in 2018.[3]

Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state and includes Blount, Claiborne, Grainger, Knox, and Loudon counties as well as portions of Campbell and Jefferson counties.[4]


This page covered the general election in this race. Click here to read more about the Democratic Party primary election. Click here to read more about the Republican Party primary election.


Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett (R)
 
65.9
 
172,856
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos (D) Candidate Connection
 
33.1
 
86,668
Greg Samples (Independent)
 
0.4
 
967
Image of Jeffrey Grunau
Jeffrey Grunau (Independent)
 
0.3
 
657
Image of Marc Whitmire
Marc Whitmire (Independent)
 
0.2
 
637
Keith LaTorre (Independent)
 
0.1
 
349

Total votes: 262,134
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Renee Hoyos defeated Joshua Williams and Joseph Schenkenfelder in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos Candidate Connection
 
72.4
 
22,220
Image of Joshua Williams
Joshua Williams
 
23.1
 
7,077
Image of Joseph Schenkenfelder
Joseph Schenkenfelder
 
4.5
 
1,383

Total votes: 30,680
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett
 
48.2
 
47,875
Image of Jimmy Matlock
Jimmy Matlock
 
36.1
 
35,855
Ashley Nickloes
 
11.0
 
10,961
Image of Jason Emert
Jason Emert
 
2.3
 
2,305
Image of Hank Hamblin
Hank Hamblin
 
0.9
 
855
Image of Vito Sagliano
Vito Sagliano Candidate Connection
 
0.8
 
844
Image of C. David Stansberry
C. David Stansberry
 
0.7
 
657

Total votes: 99,352
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+20, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 20 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District the 34th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Renee Hoyos Democratic Party $351,595 $347,366 $4,219 As of December 31, 2018
Tim Burchett Republican Party $1,094,058 $958,168 $135,890 As of December 31, 2018
Jeffrey Grunau Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Keith LaTorre Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Greg Samples Independent $950 $391 $558 As of December 31, 2017
Marc Whitmire Independent $4,180 $2,137 $2,044 As of September 30, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Duncan, Jr. (R) defeated Stuart Starr (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[7][8][9]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Duncan, Jr. Incumbent 75.6% 212,455
     Democratic Stuart Starr 24.4% 68,401
Total Votes 280,856
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent John J. Duncan, Jr. won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Bob Scott (D), Green Party candidate Norris Dryer and independent Casey Gouge in the general election.

U.S. House, Tennessee District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn J. Duncan, Jr. Incumbent 72.5% 120,853
     Democratic Bob Scott 22.6% 37,599
     Green Norris Dryer 2.4% 4,033
     Independent Casey Gouge 2.5% 4,222
Total Votes 166,707
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[10][11]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

See also: State government trifectas

2018 elections

See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[12]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[13]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)