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Election results, 2020: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer

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Last updated February 8, 2021.

In the 2020 U.S. Senate and U.S. House elections, the winning candidate's margin of victory (MOV) in 89 races was less than 10 percentage points and was 5 percentage points or less in 42 races.

Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less represent approximately 18 percent of the 470 U.S. Congressional elections that took place in 2020. Of the 89 races decided by less than 10 percent, 18 resulted in a change in partisan control. Of those, three went from Republican to Democratic control and 15 went from Democratic to Republican control.

On this page, you will find tables of those congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less in 2020, as well as full results tables for 2018, 2016, and 2014.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • In 2020, 89 congressional races (12 Senate and 77 House) were decided by less than 10 percent. In 2018, 102 races were decided by the same margin. In 2016, 42 were decided by 10 percent or less, and in 2014, 56 were.
  • In 2020, 42 congressional races (five Senate and 37 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2018, 50 congressional races (five Senate and 45 House) were decided by less than a 5 percent margin. In 2016, there were 22 such elections, and in 2014, 31.
  • Of the 89 congressional races in 2020 decided by a margin of less than 10 percent, the Republican candidate won 45 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 44. Of the 42 congressional races in 2020 decided by a margin of 5 percent or less, the Democratic candidate won 23, while Republicans won 19.
  • Historical comparison

    Elections where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less

    In 2020, there were 89 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Twelve were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 77 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Republican candidate won 45 of these elections, while the Democratic candidate won 44.

    In 2018, there were 102 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Twelve were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 90 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 49 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 53.

    In 2016, there were 42 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Nine were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 33 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The outcome of these elections was split evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with each party winning 21 of these elections.

    In 2014, there were 56 races where the margin of victory was 10 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Seven were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 49 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 32 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 24.

    Elections where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less

    In 2020, there were 42 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 37 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 23 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 19.

    In 2018, there were 50 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 45 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 24 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 26.

    In 2016, there were 22 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 17 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 14 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won eight.

    In 2014, there were 31 races where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less of the total votes cast. Of these:

    • Five were elections for the U.S. Senate, while 26 were elections for U.S. House seats.
    • The Democratic candidate won 17 of these elections, while the Republican candidate won 14.


    2020 congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less

    Congressional races decided by 10 percent or less, 2020
    Winner Congressional district Margin of victory Party switch? Open seat?
    Mariannette Miller-Meeks Republican Party Iowa's 2nd Congressional District .00% Yes Yes
    Claudia Tenney Republican Party New York's 22nd Congressional District .00% Yes No
    Mike Garcia Republican Party California's 25th Congressional District .10% No No
    Jon Ossoff Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Georgia .83% Yes No
    David G. Valadao Republican Party California's 21st Congressional District .89% Yes No
    Burgess Owens Republican Party Utah's 4th Congressional District 1.00% Yes No
    Young Kim Republican Party California's 39th Congressional District 1.20% Yes Yes
    Tom Malinowski Democratic Party New Jersey's 7th Congressional District 1.22% No No
    Nancy Mace Republican Party South Carolina's 1st Congressional District 1.27% Yes No
    Beth Van Duyne Republican Party Texas' 24th Congressional District 1.33% No Yes
    Lauren Underwood Democratic Party Illinois' 14th Congressional District 1.34% No No
    Cindy Axne Democratic Party Iowa's 3rd Congressional District 1.39% No No
    Raphael Warnock Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Georgia 1.68% Yes No
    Gary Peters Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Michigan 1.69% No No
    Thom Tillis Republican Party U.S. Senate for North Carolina 1.75% No No
    Abigail Spanberger Democratic Party Virginia's 7th Congressional District 1.82% No No
    Michelle Steel Republican Party California's 48th Congressional District 2.12% Yes No
    Angie Craig Democratic Party Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District 2.26% No No
    Conor Lamb Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District 2.29% No No
    Mark Kelly Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Arizona 2.35% Yes No
    Haley Stevens Democratic Party Michigan's 11th Congressional District 2.38% No No
    Ashley Hinson Republican Party Iowa's 1st Congressional District 2.60% Yes No
    Ron Kind Democratic Party Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District 2.66% No No
    Maria Elvira Salazar Republican Party Florida's 27th Congressional District 2.74% Yes No
    Carolyn Bourdeaux Democratic Party Georgia's 7th Congressional District 2.78% Yes Yes
    Vicente Gonzalez Jr. Democratic Party Texas' 15th Congressional District 2.88% No No
    Susie Lee Democratic Party Nevada's 3rd Congressional District 2.98% No No
    Jim Hagedorn Republican Party Minnesota's 1st Congressional District 3.08% No No
    Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Arizona's 1st Congressional District 3.22% No No
    Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Democratic Party Texas' 7th Congressional District 3.33% No No
    Carlos Gimenez Republican Party Florida's 26th Congressional District 3.45% Yes No
    Matt Cartwright Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District 3.55% No No
    Kim Schrier Democratic Party Washington's 8th Congressional District 3.57% No No
    Elissa Slotkin Democratic Party Michigan's 8th Congressional District 3.59% No No
    Susan Wild Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District 3.73% No No
    Tony Gonzales Republican Party Texas' 23rd Congressional District 3.96% No Yes
    Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Illiniois' 17th Congressional District 4.05% No No
    Victoria Spartz Republican Party Indiana's 5th Congressional District 4.08% No Yes
    Stephanie Bice Republican Party Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District 4.12% Yes No
    David Schweikert Republican Party Arizona's 6th Congressional District 4.35% No No
    Don Bacon Republican Party Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 4.56% No No
    Steven Horsford Democratic Party Nevada's 4th Congressional District 4.86% No No
    Chris Pappas Democratic Party New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District 5.10% No No
    Bob Good Republican Party Virginia's 5th Congressional District 5.14% No Yes
    Christopher Jacobs Republican Party New York's 27th Congressional District 5.16% No No
    Tina Smith Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Minnesota 5.25% No No
    Peter DeFazio Democratic Party Oregon's 4th Congressional District 5.32% No No
    Elaine Luria Democratic Party Virginia's 2nd Congressional District 5.75% No No
    Jeff Van Drew Republican Party New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District 5.76% No No
    Peter Meijer Republican Party Michigan's 3rd Congressional District 5.92% No Yes
    Jimmy Gomez Democratic Party California's 34th Congressional District 5.96% No No
    Colin Allred Democratic Party Texas' 32nd Congressional District 6.02% No No
    Charlie Crist Democratic Party Florida's 13th Congressional District 6.08% No No
    Jared Golden Democratic Party Maine's 2nd Congressional District 6.09% No No
    Ben Ray Luján Democratic Party U.S. Senate for New Mexico 6.11% No Yes
    Lauren Boebert Republican Party Colorado's 3rd Congressional District 6.18% No Yes
    Mike Levin Democratic Party California's 49th Congressional District 6.26% No No
    Nicole Malliotakis Republican Party New York's 11th Congressional District 6.28% Yes no
    Ann Wagner Republican Party Missouri's 2nd Congressional District 6.37% No No
    Richard Hudson Republican Party North Carolina's 8th Congressional District 6.57% No No
    Joni Ernst Republican Party U.S. Senate for Iowa 6.59% No Yes
    Chip Roy Republican Party Texas' 21st Congressional District 6.60% No No
    Mikie Sherrill Democratic Party New Jersey's 11th Congressional District 6.61% No No
    Scott Perry Republican Party Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District 6.62% No No
    Kurt Schrader Democratic Party Oregon's 5th Congressional District 6.70% No No
    Andrew Garbarino Republican Party New York's 2nd Congressional District 6.93% No Yes
    Katie Porter Democratic Party California's 45th Congressional District 6.93% No No
    Troy Nehls Republican Party Texas' 22nd Congressional District 6.93% No Yes
    Michael McCaul Republican Party Texas' 10th Congressional District 7.13% No No
    Steve Chabot Republican Party Ohio's 1st Congressional District 7.15% No No
    Sean Casten Democratic Party Illinois' 6th Congressional District 7.38% No No
    Yvette Herrell Republican Party New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District 7.45% Yes No
    Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party New Jersey's 5th Congressional District 7.52% No No
    Tim Ryan Democratic Party Ohio's 13th Congressional District 7.55% No No
    Andy Kim Democratic Party New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District 7.76% No No
    Darrell Issa Republican Party California's 50th Congressional District 7.91% No Yes
    G.K. Butterfield Democratic Party North Carolina's 1st Congressional District 8.35% No No
    Devin Nunes Republican Party California's 22nd Congressional District 8.45% No No
    Susan Collins Republican Party U.S. Senate for Maine 8.60% No No
    Ronald Wright Republican Party Texas' 6th Congressional District 8.82% No No
    Rodney Davis Republican Party Illinois' 13th Congressional District 8.93% No No
    Don Young Republican Party Alaska's At-Large Congressional District 9.14% No No
    John Carter Republican Party Texas' 31st Congressional District 9.14% No No
    Lucy McBath Democratic Party Georgia's 6th Congressional District 9.18% No No
    John Hickenlooper Democratic Party U.S. Senate for Colorado 9.32% Yes No
    Chrissy Houlahan Democratic Party Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District 9.34% No No
    John Garamendi Democratic Party California's 3rd Congressional District 9.35% No No
    John Cornyn Republican Party U.S. Senate for Texas 9.64% No No
    Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Party U.S. Senate for Mississippi 9.98% No No

    2018 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2018 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2018


    Margin of Victory in 2018 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2018


    2016 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2016 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

    Margin of Victory in 2016 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2016

    2014 congressional elections

    Margin of Victory in 2014 United States House Elections

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2014

    Margin of Victory in 2014 United States Senate Elections

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2014

    See also