Did Trump stop the bleeding?
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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This page was current as of the 2016 election.
October 10, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Engulfed in a political firestorm over an 11-year-old conversation where he said he could grope women because he was a celebrity, Donald Trump nonetheless managed to rally Republican Insiders in his second presidential debate with Hillary Clinton.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 150 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, after the conclusion of the October 9 debate and found that an overwhelming majority of Democratic Insiders thought Clinton had a good night. At the same time, a majority Republicans thought Trump did also.
Among the 79 Democratic Insiders who responded, a whopping 86 percent declared Clinton the “biggest winner” of the night. Another 13 percent called the debate a draw, and one percent (one Democratic Insider) said that Trump had captured the evening. This is very consistent with how they viewed the outcome of the first face-off between Clinton and Trump.
But the 80 Republican Insiders had a different view: Almost two-thirds, 63 percent, thought Trump got the better of Clinton in the clash on Sunday night at Washington University in St. Louis. In the first debate, only 32 percent of the GOP Insiders thought Trump was the biggest winner and a plurality, 38 percent, actually gave the edge to Clinton. Last night 19 percent of the Republicans thought the debate was a draw and another 19 percent thought Clinton won.
Republicans who said Trump was the “biggest winner” last night did so with a range of feelings about their presidential standard bearer—many of them, not altogether positive. In a way, that reflects the bind the GOP establishment is in: If they had their druthers, many GOP Insiders would no doubt wish Trump wasn’t leading their party right now. At the same time, they’re realists and understand that he’s unlikely to step down, and for all practical purposes, can’t be removed from the top of the ticket by the Republican National Committee. That kind of coup would enrage a lot of Trump loyalists and be a logistical and legal nightmare for the GOP to get any change in their ticket effectively translated onto ballot lines in 50 states.
After a horrible run of negative news coverage capped by the disclosure of a tape of an decade-old exchange with then-Access Hollywood television host Billy Bush on a bus in which Trump casually boasted about how he could get away with groping women, but assumed his comments were not being recorded—many Republican operatives were simply impressed he was able to get through a presidential debate without imploding and actually landed a few punches on his Democratic opponent.
“He is still alive and kicking,” said one GOP Insider. “That’s a win after everything that has happened [lately].” Echoed another, “He stopped the bleeding and landed some big punches tonight. He lives to fight on.” And a third observed, “Trump survived the bus tape, and then made a case for change. He vastly exceeded expectations.”
At the time, many Republicans acknowledged that the broadsides he unleashed in the debate—and his potential strategy going forward—were far from uplifting. “He wants to reduce last 30 days [of the campaign] to a pile of rubble and emerge the winner,” calculated one Republican Insider. “He moved the election in his direction last night.” Another opined: “He has one Clintonesque quality—shamelessness: At his best when at his lowest.” And a third Republican Insider noted, “History will wonder how we possibly thought Trump won a debate, but occasionally an oafish boor is effective.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Many Republican Insiders expected Clinton would have been prepared for such attacks, which at times, seemed to leave her flummoxed for an effective response. “With nothing left to lose he unleashed on his opponent who, apparently, thought tonight was going to be a layup,” said one GOP Insider. Another echoed, “HRC assumed he was dead.” A third Republican operative observed: “She was scrambling with platitudes all night. Shocking rebound by him. Had no idea he was capable of it.”
Another group of Republicans attributed Trump’s survival to Clinton’s own shortcomings and vulnerability. “How could she blow this?” wondered a GOP Insider. “She continues to be unable to put him away,” echoed another. “That fact alone makes him the winner. [He] should have been devastated, but instead he is still standing.” And a third confessed, “Frankly, I'd written him off after [the bus tape] comments, but he’s not dead. Shows what a poor candidate she is… People will literally consider anything over her and her record.”
Other Republicans saw promise—but still some opportunities missed—with Trump’s attack on Clinton as a typical politician who has been around Washington too long. “Stopped his bleeding and painted her as an establishment poster child,” assessed one Republican Insider. “Trump fearlessly exposed Clinton for the fraud that is her entire career: ‘30 years of talk’ is a slogan that would have won this thing in a normal year,” declared another. And a third averred, “Landed brutal blows, and her answers rang false. Would have been perfect if he would stop running at the mouth.”
Still, almost one-fifth of the Republicans thought that Clinton won the slugfest in St. Louis and were not impressed by Trump or his debate tactics.
"The moment he opened his mouth, he was losing,” maintained one Republican Insider. So many (legitimate) opportunities to attack her and he misfired on every one.” Another moaned, “Trump takes bait and doesn’t adequately prepare. He could do so much better despite all his flaws.” A third Republican sighed: “HRC is such a bad candidate and so vulnerable, but DJT needs more discipline to actually land a punch. He flailed around a lot but if he can’t stay on an issue he’ll never corner her.”
One Republican joked: “Donald has a future role as a spokesman for Viagra, because he’s the most politically impotent candidate I’ve ever encountered.” Another mused, “Trump needs to stop winning the who-talked-more metric if he wants to win moderates or undecided: The more he talks, the less appealing he is.” But another simply lamented, “Trump is a disgrace.”
And one GOP Insider shrewdly observed, “Trump won the debate, but Hillary was the ‘biggest winner,’ because Trump can stay in the race now.”
Democratic Insiders were nearly unanimous in declaring the Clinton the victor on Sunday night. One way or another, most Democrats attributed her success to Trump’s over-the-top debate tactics and his failure to broaden his appeal beyond his loyal fans in the Republican Party.
“Trump did nothing to expand his base of support,” judged one Democratic Insider. “He double-downed on his campaign strategy and showed little remorse for disrespecting a large faction of the electorate. Clinton did little to change minds as well, but she came out on top of Trump in this round.” Another declared, “He did nothing to move college educated women or Hispanics, so by default, she wins.” And a third assessed the debate this way: “Trump needed to somehow appeal to moderates or undecideds and he did neither—played to the base at every opportunity. [He] covered the bullet wound if the lewd sex tape with a Band-Aid; won’t be enough.”
For many Democrats, Clinton won for maintaining her poise under Trump’s verbal barrage. “She continued to show steadiness while he was angry and still can’t articulate policy answers,” said one Democratic Insider. “She gets credit for fixing her face in the expression we all use when dealing with the profoundly stupid,” jabbed another. “Despite Trump’s physical and verbal attempts to intimidate her, she kept her cool and looked presidential,” declared a third Democrat. [During the debate Trump appeared to hover near Clinton on the television screen, but both candidates were pacing the debate stage, occasionally at the same time.]
But a few Democrats acknowledged that Clinton’s equanimity and play-it-safe tactics prevented her from pushing back more forcefully on Trump’s attacks during the debate. One Democratic Insider observed, “Hillary was very careful and missed some opportunities, but she did not want to step on the story of the campaign—Donald Trump and his moral lapses.” Another noted, “Mrs. Clinton made no huge errors though was sometimes on the defensive on topics such as emails and her speeches.” And a third said simply, “She got out of Donald’s way.”
Several Democrats were dismayed by the tone of the debate set by Trump. “It’s a shame such a smart woman had to take part in this ludicrous spectacle,” chided one Democratic Insider. “Trump sets a sub-gutter standard for political discourse,” admonished another.
And some Democrats predicted the fallout from debate would not be kind to Trump or the Republican establishment. “He didn’t implode but that does not count as a win,” maintained one Democratic Insider. “The next days will not be kind to him in replay.” Another Democrat presciently observed that Trump’s performance “assured that [House Speaker Paul] Ryan and GOP leaders will be forced to back [Trump] or face punishment from the base.” On Monday morning, Ryan was caught some blowback on a conference call with his fellow House Republicans when he told them he would no longer defend Trump’s candidacy and they should campaign accordingly for what works best in their home districts. Some conservative GOP Members of Congress were angered by what they saw as Ryan’s willingness to abandon Trump.
A handful of Democrats saw the debate as a draw and the impact of that result was unclear. One Democrat thought that meant Trump won: “He keeps making mistakes and is still within four [points in earlier polls].” But another declared the presidential race “is over,” and asked cagily, “Did Trump help or hurt down-ballot Republicans tonight? If they stick with him now, maybe they'll regret it.”
One Democrat summed up the Sunday face-off this way: “He was in absolute free fall and he went on the attack, his comfort zone. She needed to get through it without any major misstep, and she did. Neither gained or lost their core as a result of this debate.”
About one-fifth of the Republicans also saw the debate as a draw, perhaps helping Trump in the short term, but not in the long run. “Trump stopped the bleeding, but didn’t expand his vote: bad news if you're behind,” said one GOP Insider. Added another, “It felt as though Trump stopped the bleeding to a certain extent, but that may not be enough to turn the page.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Presidential debate at Washington University (October 9, 2016)
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
