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Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 18 Democratic primary)

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Florida's 18th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Brian Mast (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 18th Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2020
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Pam Keith defeated Oz Vazquez in a Democratic primary in Florida's 18th Congressional District on August 18, 2020. At 7:37 p.m. EST with 16.45% of precincts reporting, Keith had earned 79.9% of the vote, followed by Vazquez with 20.1% Both candidates received a number of noteworthy primary endorsements in the lead up to election day. The incumbent was Brian Mast (R), who was first elected in 2016. As of August 2020, the district was rated by independent outlets as Solid Republican.

Pam Keith is a veteran of the Navy and an attorney.[1] Previous to this election, Keith ran in Florida's 2016 United States Senate Democratic primary and in the 2018 Democratic primary for Florida’s 18th Congressional District. Keith lost both primaries, garnering 39.7% and 15.4% of the vote respectively. In an interview with Daily Kos, she said her key issues included opposing President Donald Trump, expanding access to healthcare, and enacting climate change policies to support Florida’s environmental resources.[2]

Oz Vazquez is an attorney who formerly served as Florida Deputy Solicitor General.[3] According to his campaign website, his policy priorities included expanding access to healthcare, addressing climate change, and supporting Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.[4]

As of July 29, Vazquez had raised $450,438 and spent $388,669, while Keith had raised $282,369 and spent $181,016.[5] Vazquez received noteworthy primary endorsements from former Representative for Florida’s 18th Congressional District Patrick Murphy and CHC Bold PAC.[6] Keith received noteworthy primary endorsements from VoteVets and the Working Families Party.[7]

Pam Keith and Oz Vazquez completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection Survey. Click here to see their responses.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Keith
Vazquez


This page focuses on Florida's 18th Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its candidate filing procedures as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: Candidates allowed to submit qualifying documents, including signed petitions, electronically.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith Candidate Connection
 
79.8
 
52,921
Image of Oz Vazquez
Oz Vazquez Candidate Connection
 
20.2
 
13,385

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 66,306
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[8] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Pam Keith

Image of Pam Keith

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I am the daughter of a veteran and career diplomat who grew up learning about and projecting American values abroad. I am a tenacious and dogged advocate, who is relentless in achieving my goals. I am a patriot who fully understands that patriotism is not just loving America, its loving AMERICANS, the diverse group of individuals who make this country so much more than the sum of its parts."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

The Presidency of Donald Trump, and the enabling of the Republican Party is an existential threat to survival of the United States as a democratic republic

The people of this country and this district will not move into a future dominated by white supremacy, racism, anti-semitism or xenophobia

Our government will be made to work for the benefit of the people, and we will categorically reject that its principle purpose is to drive our resources into the hands of the wealthy few

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 18 in 2020.

Oz Vazquez

Image of Oz Vazquez

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I am running in Florida's 18th District, taking on second-term Congressman Brian Mast. I'm running because families in my community need someone to look out for them - not for a political party. I'm committed to serving working class people and folks on fixed incomes; these are communities I've spent years advocating for. I grew up in a working class home myself. I'm the son of immigrants and was raised in Port Saint Lucie. My dad drove a taxi; my mom worked in the garment industry. We relied on Social Security and Medicare, programs they'd paid into, when my dad's health forced him to stop driving. I graduated from Port Saint Lucie High (where I met my wife), waited tables to work my way through Florida State, and graduated from Harvard Law. I got the chance to live the American dream and have worked to pay it back, fighting for economic justice as an AmeriCorps*VISTA and representing pensions, retirees, unions, workers, and the State of Florida, as a lawyer. I want to continue my service in Congress. I will fight so working people and retirees have a secure future. I support lowering healthcare costs, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and preserving our environment."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I will work to bring real solutions on healthcare, including reducing costs (particularly for prescription drugs) and making sure we protect and expand our families' access to care.

I will always fight to protect Social Security and Medicare and to ensure retirees and working class people can enjoy economic security.

I believe we need to do more to safeguard our environment and fight for clean water in our community.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 18 in 2020.


Noteworthy primary endorsements

This section includes noteworthy endorsements issued in the primary, added as we learn about them. Click here to read how we define noteworthy primary endorsements. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Keith Vaquez
Newspapers and editorials
The Palm Beach Post[9] ✔
Elected officials
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D)[10] ✔
Representative Alcee Hastings (D)[11] ✔
Individuals
Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D)[12] ✔
Organizations
CHC Bold PAC[13] ✔
The Collective PAC[14] ✔
Emgage[15] ✔
EMILY's List[16] ✔
Equality PAC[17] ✔
Higher Heights for America[18] ✔
IVYPAC[19] ✔
Latino Victory[20] ✔
Planned Parenthood Action Fund[21] ✔
Unidos US Action Fund[22] ✔
VoteVets[23] ✔
Voter Protection Project[24] ✔
Working Families Party[25] ✔

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[26] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[27] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Pam Keith Democratic Party $1,674,663 $1,670,343 $4,320 As of December 31, 2020
Oz Vazquez Democratic Party $505,678 $505,678 $0 As of October 24, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Primaries in Florida

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Florida utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[28][29]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[30]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[31][32][33]

Race ratings: Florida's 18th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 18th Congressional District the 195th most Republican nationally.[34]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[35]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[36][37]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Florida's 18th Congressional District election history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2010.

2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Lauren Baer in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 18 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast (R)
 
54.3
 
185,905
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer (D)
 
45.7
 
156,454

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 342,359
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Lauren Baer defeated Pam Keith in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lauren Baer
Lauren Baer
 
60.3
 
35,028
Image of Pam Keith
Pam Keith
 
39.7
 
23,064

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 58,092
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18

Incumbent Brian Mast defeated Mark Freeman and Dave Cummings in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 18 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brian Mast
Brian Mast
 
77.6
 
55,527
Image of Mark Freeman
Mark Freeman
 
11.3
 
8,096
Image of Dave Cummings
Dave Cummings
 
11.0
 
7,888

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 71,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Charlotte Florida Weekly, "The Florida Vote," August 6, 2020
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos interview: Attorney, Navy vet Pam Keith is a contender to flip House seat in South Florida," March 17, 2020
  3. ↑ Oz Vazquez 2020 campaign website, "Meet Oz," accessed August 14, 2020
  4. ↑ Oz Vazquez 2020 campaign website, "Issues," accessed August 14, 2020
  5. ↑ Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign Finance Data," accessed August 14, 2020
  6. ↑ Oz Vaquez 2020 campaign website, "Oz Vazquez For Florida’s 18th Congressional District," accessed August 14, 2020
  7. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  8. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  9. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  10. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  11. ↑ Facebook, "Pam Keith on July 21," accessed August 14, 2020
  12. ↑ Facebook, "Oz Vazquez on June 3," accessed August 14, 2020
  13. ↑ BOLD PAC, "BOLD PAC Endorses Oz Vazquez in Florida’s 18th Congressional District," November 15, 2019
  14. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  15. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  16. ↑ Florida Politics, "EMILY’s List backs Democrat Pam Keith in CD 18 primary," August 14, 2020
  17. ↑ Facebook, "Oz Vazquez on July 10," accessed August 14, 2020
  18. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  19. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  20. ↑ Facebook, "Oz Vazquez on January 22," accessed August 14, 2020
  21. ↑ Facebook, "Oz Vazquez on May 20," accessed August 14, 2020
  22. ↑ Facebook, "Oz Vazquez on August 6," accessed August 14, 2020
  23. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  24. ↑ Voter Protection Project, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  25. ↑ Pam Keith 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 14, 2020
  26. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  27. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  28. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 23, 2024
  29. ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "Closed Primary Election," accessed July 23, 2024
  30. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  31. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  32. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  33. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  34. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  35. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  36. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  37. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  38. ↑ TCPalm, "Rebecca Negron files to run for Patrick Murphy's seat," April 14, 2015
  39. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Republican Carl Domino says he’s running again for Patrick Murphy’s House seat," May 5, 2015
  40. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "War vet Brian Mast, attorney Rick Kozell launch GOP bids for open Patrick Murphy seat," June 8, 2015
  41. ↑ Twitter, "Emily Cahn," August 4, 2015
  42. ↑ PalmBeachPost.com, "Belle Glade farmer Rick Roth of Wellington to run for U.S. Congress," August 12, 2015
  43. ↑ Carla Spalding for Congress, "Home," accessed January 4, 2016
  44. ↑ Palm Beach Post, "Hurricane-cleanup CEO set to join Dem race for Murphy U.S. House seat," November 17, 2015
  45. ↑ Jonathan Chane for Congress, "Home," accessed January 12, 2016
  46. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  47. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  48. ↑ Associated Press, "Primary Results 2014," accessed August 26, 2014
  49. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
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Neal Dunn (R)
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Anna Luna (R)
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District 17
District 18
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District 20
District 21
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District 24
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District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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