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United States House election in South Dakota (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

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South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 27, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
Primary runoff: August 14, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Kristi Noem (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in South Dakota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
At-large
South Dakota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Dusty Johnson defeated Secretary of State Shantel Krebs and state Sen. Neal Tapio in the Republican primary election for the nomination to replace Kristi Noem (R) as South Dakota’s sole member of the U.S. House. Noem ran for governor rather than seeking re-election.

Like many other Republican primaries this year, support for President Donald Trump was a key issue.[1]

Johnson said he disagreed with Trump's rhetoric but was generally with him on policy matters.[2] He focused his campaign on issues related to the congressional budget and the state's agricultural sector rather than the president's agenda or actions, leading media outlets to cast him as the most independent Republican running. He led the field in fundraising and was backed by Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R).

Krebs' support for Trump and his agenda were central to her campaign. She was endorsed by Kansas Secretary of State and Trump adviser Kris Kobach and U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). She was right behind Johnson in fundraising.[3]

Tapio served as Trump’s state director in South Dakota in 2016. He launched his campaign in January 2018 by criticizing Daugaard and U.S. Sen. John Thune (R) for not being supportive enough of the president during his presidential campaign. He later called for abolishing Native American reservations, saying government corruption on the sites had contributed to crimes against children, drug use, and poverty.[4]

The candidates disagreed on a number of issues including the role of Islam in American society and President Trump's tariffs. Johnson was wary of the tariffs' potential effects on South Dakota farmers and said Muslims should be able to practice freely. Tapio supported a ban on Muslims entering the country and the tariffs. Krebs supported the tariffs and said she generally supported the free exercise of religion.

In late May, the super PAC Citizens for A Strong America Inc. began a satellite spending campaign opposing Krebs. The group was connected with the centrist organization No Labels, which supported a number of moderate Democrats and Republicans in 2018 primaries who could potentially join the Problem Solvers Caucus in the U.S. House. Johnson said he met with No Labels but did not commit to joining to the Problem Solvers Caucus.

This seat was rated as Safe Republican by ratings outlets. [5]



South Dakota voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 5, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 27, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 21, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 4, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeClosed (Republican, Libertarian, and Constitution parties); Semi-closed (Democratic Party)
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Dusty Johnson defeated Shantel Krebs and Neal Tapio in the Republican primary for U.S. House South Dakota At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House South Dakota At-large District

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dusty Johnson
Dusty Johnson
 
46.8
 
47,120
Image of Shantel Krebs
Shantel Krebs
 
29.3
 
29,551
Image of Neal Tapio
Neal Tapio
 
23.9
 
24,040

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 100,711
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

The candidates featured below raised at least $100,000 in 2017 and received endorsements and mentions in the media.

Dusty Johnson.jpg

Dusty Johnson (R)
Businessman and former chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R)


Campaign website Facebook Twitter

A businessman who previously served as chief of staff for Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Dusty Johnson ran for Congress with the campaign slogan, "I'm an optimist." He received the support of his former boss, Gov. Daugaard, and was the field's leading fundraiser.

Johnson told the Rapid City Journal that his major focuses in Congress would be responding to the drought in South Dakota and addressing what he calls the "general dysfunction" of the federal government.[6] His campaign website highlighted his opposition to firearm regulations, his desire to address increasing deficits he said could come with the 2017 tax bill, and his support for South Dakota's agriculture industry.[7] He also supported legislation changing the congressional budgeting process from one year to two years.[8]

Johnson joined Vantage Point Solutions, a telecommunications firm, after leaving Governor Daugaard's administration in 2014. He had joined the Daugaard administration in 2010 after previously serving on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission. He attended the University of South Dakota in Vermillion.[9]

Shantel Krebs.jpg

Shantel Krebs (R)
South Dakota Secretary of State



Campaign website Facebook Twitter

South Dakota's secretary of state since 2014, Shantel Krebs ran for office to "[fight] for President Trump’s agenda and...make Washington, DC more responsive to the people." Her candidacy was endorsed by Kansas Secretary of State and Trump advisor Kris Kobach (R), U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), the Susan B. Anthony List, and the Republican Main Street Partnership. She was just behind Dusty Johnson in campaign contributions.

Krebs' campaign platform was tied to President Trump's agenda, including his positions on immigration, veteran's issues, agricultural regulations, and healthcare. In his video endorsing Krebs, Kobach said that she would support Trump's agenda in Congress and would be a "pro-Trump voice for national security, strong borders, and the rule of law."[10]

Prior to her election as secretary of state, Krebs had served in the South Dakota Legislature since 2005, first as a state representative and then, after the 2010 elections, as a state senator. Before entering public office, she ran a retail business in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. She received a business degree from South Dakota State University.[11]

Neal Tapio portrait.jpg

Neal Tapio (R)
State senator



Campaign website Facebook

First elected to the South Dakota State Senate in 2016, Neal Tapio ran for Congress based on his opposition to South Dakota elected officials like U.S. Sen. John Thune and Gov. Dennis Daugaard for what he what he said was their inadequate support for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign and by drawing a connection between violent extremism and Islam. Tapio said he would put $300,000 of his own funds into the race because his self-described outsider status would not attract Republican donors. He also said he "will be President Trump’s staunchest supporter" during his campaign.[12]

In his statement announcing his run, he said, "If [U.S. Sen.] John Thune and [Gov.] Dennis Daugaard had their way, Donald Trump would have been off the Republican ticket and Hillary Clinton would be our President today, God help us.” [13][14] He later called for abolishing Native American reservations, saying government corruption on the sites had contributed to crimes against children, drug use, and poverty.[4]

In the 2018 session of the South Dakota State Senate, he introduced measures drawing a connection between Islam and violent extremism and called for a ban on refugee resettlement in South Dakota for persons coming from the Middle Eastern and North African countries implicated in Trump's executive order restricting entry to the United States.[15] He also expressed support for the tariffs on Chinese goods that Trump announced in early 2018.[16]

Tapio served as Donald Trump's state director for South Dakota in the 2016 presidential campaign. His professional experience includes working in the industrial cleaning industry. He attended Moorhead State University and worked for U.S. Sen. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.).[17]


Election updates

Satellite spending

  • May 30, 2018: Hold Washington Accountable disclosed nearly $30,000 in spending oppposing Dusty Johnson.
  • May 26, 2018: Citizens for A Stronger America Inc. disclosed about $140,000 in spending opposing Shantel Krebs.

Endorsements

  • May 24, 2018: U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) endorsed Shantel Krebs.
  • May 24, 2018: The Sioux Falls Argus Leader endorsed Dusty Johnson.
  • April 26, 2018: The Republican Main Street Partnership endorsed Shantel Krebs

Campaign finance

  • May 16, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018 showed the following:
    • Dusty Johnson had raised about $686,000 and had about $306,000 in cash on hand.
    • Shantel Krebs had raised about $634,000 and had about $224,000 in cash on hand.
    • Neal Tapio had raised about $168,000 and had about $37,000 in cash on hand.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
  • May 30, 2018: A poll from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO TV showed Dusty Johnson leading with 41 percent, Shantel Krebs with 23 percent, and Neal Tapio with 13 percent. Twenty-three percent of voters were undecided.

Timeline

  • May 30, 2018: A poll from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO TV showed Dusty Johnson leading with 41 percent, Shantel Krebs with 23 percent, and Neal Tapio with 13 percent. Twenty-three percent of voters were undecided.
  • May 30, 2018: Hold Washington Accountable disclosed nearly $30,000 in spending oppposing Dusty Johnson.
  • May 26, 2018: Citizens for A Stronger America Inc. disclosed about $140,000 in spending opposing Shantel Krebs.
  • May 24, 2018: U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) endorsed Shantel Krebs.
  • May 24, 2018: The Sioux Falls Argus Leader endorsed Dusty Johnson.
  • May 24, 2018: The candidates met in a debate and discussed the 2018 farm bill. See full coverage here.
  • May 16, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018 showed the following:
    • Dusty Johnson had raised about $686,000 and had about $306,000 in cash on hand.
    • Shantel Krebs had raised about $634,000 and had about $224,000 in cash on hand.
    • Neal Tapio had raised about $168,000 and had about $37,000 in cash on hand.
  • April 26, 2018: The Republican Main Street Partnership endorsed Shantel Krebs.
  • January 28, 2018: Neal Tapio, a state senator and campaign director for Donald Trump in 2016, entered the race.
  • December 14, 2017: Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) endorsed Secretary of State Shantel Krebs in the race.
  • January 12, 2017: Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) endorsed his former chief of staff Dusty Johnson in the race.
  • November 14, 2016: U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) announced that she would run for governor in 2018, leaving her U.S. House seat open.

Satellite spending

  • Citizens For A Strong America Inc spent about $310,000 opposing Shantel Krebs between May 17 and May 31.[18] Read more below about the group's affiliation with the centrist organization No Labels.
  • Hold Washington Accountable spent about $51,000 opposing Dusty Johnson between May 30 and June 5.[18]

Campaign finance

Campaign finance disclosures from May 16, 2018 showed the following:

  • Dusty Johnson had raised about $686,000 and had about $306,000 in cash on hand.
  • Shantel Krebs had raised about $634,000 and had about $224,000 in cash on hand.
  • Neal Tapio had raised about $168,000 and had about $37,000 in cash on hand.

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly January 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who have reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of December 31, 2017.[19]

Republican Party Republicans



How did the candidates differ?

Committee assignments in U.S. House

Dusty Johnson and Shantel Krebs both said they would seek a position on the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture. Neal Tapio said he would consider joining the Agriculture Committee, but he would consider other options as well.[20]

Donald Trump's tariffs

The candidates expressed the following positions on tariffs announced by President Trump in early 2018:[20]

  • Republican Party Dusty Johnson said Trump should be careful when negotiating trade agreements and that the tariffs could threaten South Dakota farmers' access to international markets.
  • Republican Party Shantel Krebs said she was confident that Trump would negotiate favorable trade deals for the country.
  • Republican Party Neal Tapio said the tariffs were important in ensuring that the United States was not being taken advantage of and that domestic steel and aluminum issues were important for national defense. He added that the United States should weaken the dollar and renegotiate trade deals in order to strengthen the economy.

Government spending

The candidates proposed the following plans for reducing government spending and decreasing the federal deficit:[21]

  • Republican Party Dusty Johnson said Congress should increase the eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare and pass a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget.
  • Republican Party Shantel Krebs said the federal budget should be zero-based, meaning that all costs would have to be justified, not just new spending requests.
  • Republican Party Neal Tapio said religious instruction should be allowed in schools in order to give children hope. He said that a lack of hope was what made people use social welfare programs. He also said that the War on Terror should be ended more quickly by focusing on terrorism committed by fundamentalist practitioners of Islam.

Views on Islam

  • Republican Party Dusty Johnson: In an interview with the Rapid City Journal, Johnson said that he was in favor of allowing Muslims practice Islam in the United States. He said, “We live in dangerous times, and I know there are people across the globe and at home who hold extreme and un-American views. But I think we need to confront those threats with targeted, nuanced, intelligent solutions, and I think stereotyping all American Muslims is a great way to grab headlines, but a lousy way to keep us safe.”[22]
  • Republican Party Shantel Krebs: In an interview with the Rapid City Journal, Krebs said that she generally supported Americans being able to practice their religion, but, when asked, she did not clarify whether this would apply to Muslims.[22]
  • Republican Party Neal Tapio: In January 2018, Neal Tapio criticized Interfaith Day at the South Dakota State Capitol. He attended an event on Interfaith Day where he told the audience that he supported restrictions on Muslims entering the United States. After the attendees began to sing during his remarks, he told a reporter, "Interfaith dialogue is a part of a war, it’s a silent part, it’s a part of a way of taking away the Christian fabric of our nation.”[22] After the event, he sent out a press release that said, “I knew full well the task that I was undertaking and I knew what the response would be. Frankly, I’m outraged and appalled at what is the repeated and predictable attempt both by the political establishment to suppress open and honest dialog on this crucial issue of national security or on any other issue they believe can be made into a shame game of political correctness.” He added, " 14 Islamic nations believe it their moral and legal duty to kill anyone who leaves the Islamic faith or who speaks against it. And yet if I as a South Dakota state senator, attempt to point out the dangers of publicly endorsing and sanctioning the most violent and least tolerant belief system on the planet, I am called a racist, a bigot, an Islamophobe and a hateful person.”[23]

Endorsements

Know of an endorsement? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Johnson Krebs Tapio
National figures
U.S. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa)[24] May 24, 2018 ✔
Kris Kobach (R), Kansas secretary of state and Donald Trump advisor[3] December 14, 2017 ✔
State figures
Former state Sen. David Omdahl[25] May 14, 2018 ✔
South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R)[1] January 12, 2018 ✔
Johnny Brockelsby[16] April 3, 2018 ✔
Organizations
American Nurses Association[26] May 31, 2018 ✔
Sioux-Falls Argus Leader[27] May 24, 2018 ✔
Republican Main Street Partnership[28] April 26, 2018 ✔
Susan B. Anthony List[29] January 26, 2018 ✔


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
Poll Poll sponsor Dusty Johnson Shantel KrebsNeal TapioUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy
(May 21-23, 2018)		Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO TV 41%23%13%23%+/-4.5625
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign strategies and tactics

Involvement by No Labels

In late May 2018, the super PAC Citizens For A Strong America Inc. began a spending campaign in opposition to Shantel Krebs. According to the Rapid City Journal, the group was connected to the centrist organization No Labels, which was funded in part by Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf and former Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig. Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist of No Labels, said its goal was to elect potential members of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a group pushing for moderation and bipartisan collaboration.

Dusty Johnson told the Rapid City Journal that he met with members of No Labels when he visited Washington, D.C. in 2017, but that he had not communicated with the group since. He said he had not committed to joining the Problem Solvers Caucus and disapproved of the negative ad campaign against Krebs.

Krebs said in response to the campaign: "Hundreds of thousands of dollars in 'never-Trump' DC dark money is pouring in to South Dakota seemingly to prop up Dusty Johnson's campaign and mislead voters about my record. They do not want me in Washington because they know I will stand with President Trump to build the wall, reject amnesty, and defund sanctuary cities."[30]

Support for South Dakota elected officials

When announcing his run for the seat, Neal Tapio said that South Dakota's Republican leaders were "completely out of touch." He added, “If John Thune and Dennis Daugaard had their way, Donald Trump would have been off the Republican ticket and Hillary Clinton would be our president today, God help us. I think that’s a level of cowardice and tone deafness that says it all. And it’s clearly not representative of how South Dakotans voted for this president."[31]

Response to school shooting in Parkland, Florida

After a former student killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on February 14, 2018, Timothy Bjorkman, a Democratic candidate running for the seat, proposed several measures restricting access to firearms and asked for Republican candidates to respond with their own suggestions.

  • Republican Party Dusty Johnson issued a statement calling for changes to mental health policies and a greater emphasis on community connections such as religious institutions. He said, "I strongly support the constitutional right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms, so I was appreciative of Tim’s attempt to identify areas of common ground."
  • Republican Party Neal Tapio said he agreed with Bjorkman on what the underlying causes of gun violence were. He added, "I think he and I agree completely on the problems, but it's then how do you address those problems? I don't look at the last shooting as a gun issue. I look at it as a breakdown of law enforcement to deal with just the sheer volume of people that are checking out of society."[32]
He later told the Sioux Falls Argus Leader that at-risk children should sometimes be removed from classrooms.[33]
  • Republican Party Shantel Krebs did not respond to Bjorkman, but she later told the Sioux Falls Argus Leader that the state should direct more resources to mental health and to identifying students who might be at-risk.[33]

Johnson's alleged misuse of state's private airplane

In late May, Shantel Krebs began running a TV ad that said Johnson stepped from his position in Gov. Dennis Daugaard's (R) office because he improperly used the state's private jet. See the ad below:

"You Paid For It," released May 25, 2018

"To my recollection, every one of those trips was a business trip and had other state employees on the plane," Johnson said in response. "Maybe not the leg itself, but every trip had other state employees and we were going to do state work in towns across South Dakota."[34]

Johnson later said that his lawyer sent a cease-and-desist letter to television stations airing the ads. He said, “When you’ve got something that is provably false, I think we need to be concerned when it’s on the air.” The ads continued to air.[35]

Gov. Daugaard said that Johnson's use of plane was proper and that the allegations against him were false. He said, "...he traveled the state and met with many healthcare providers, hospital systems and other healthcare systems to negotiate rates and for our state health plan that saved the state millions of dollars. So if people want to criticize his use of the plane to save the state millions of dollars, will I take oppose to that."[36]

Johnson's local newspaper ad buy

In March 2018, Johnson announced that he was buying ads in local newspapers, saying they were an important part of the political system and needed more investment from citizens. Johnson said, “Every election year candidates send out press releases celebrating the start of their TV ads. I’ve long said newspapers are a vital ingredient of a healthy republic, so I wanted to put my money where my mouth is. I’m starting our advertising campaign with newspapers.”[37]

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Shantel Krebs

Support
"Big Rig," released May 20, 2018
"Shantel Krebs Announcement Video," released March 13, 2017

Krebs released the following endorsement videos:

"Shantel Krebs for Congress: Kobach Endorsement," released March 5, 2018
"Shantel Krebs for Congress: Johnny B Endorsement," released April 3, 2018
"Shantel Krebs for Congress: Kevin Scott Endorsement," released May 8, 2018
Oppose
"Say No to Swamp Creatures," released May 12, 2018

Republican Party Dusty Johnson

Support
"Jobs," released May 20, 2018
"Our Very Best," released May 23, 2018
"Dusty Johnson for Congress: The Next Elevator Speech," released May 17, 2017
"The Full Dusty," released April 3, 2018
"It's Time to Balance the Budget," released May 1, 2018
Oppose
"Say No to Swamp Creatures," released May 12, 2018
"You Paid For It," released May 25, 2018

Neal Tapio

Support
"Grace Hemeyer Endorsement," released May 19, 2018
"The Best Choice," released April 30, 2018
"Not a Politician," released March 10, 2018


Campaign themes and policy stances

Dusty Johnson

Johnson's campaign website stated the following:

“

CONSTITUTION AND FEDERALISM

Our Constitution is a pillar of American exceptionalism. It guarantees our people freedom of speech, freedom to practice a chosen faith, and the right to keep and bear arms. These guarantees, and others in the Constitution, make up the fabric of who we are as Americans. I will fight every day to ensure that our Constitutional rights are preserved.

Our Constitution also gave us the blueprint for successful governance – a limited national government and strong, responsive state governments. Most of the problems with our bloated, unaccountable federal government come from abandoning this blueprint by taking power from the people and the states and giving it to the national government. I’ll work every day to return the power to our communities and our people.

FISCAL DISCIPLINE

In South Dakota, we believe in low taxes and balanced budgets – and I will carry that belief with me to Congress. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act will help the middle class and, as we’ve seen, will provide a boost to our economy. It is also projected to increase our debt. It will be incumbent upon us to take the ballooning national debt seriously and right-size our government before it is too late.

REGULATION

The federal government has gotten too big, too complicated, and too intrusive. The federal government needs to get out of our daily lives and out of the way of business. I’ll work to rein in out-of-control bureaucracies that rule by regulation, and return the power to make laws to our states, communities, and people.

VALUES

I believe in the sanctity of life. I’ve supported pro-life candidates and pro-life causes for decades. I’m a member of SD Right to life. Taxpayer dollars should never fund abortion. I’ll fight for Life if elected to Congress.

I believe the right to keep and bear arms. The Founders placed this right in the Constitution. It is not simply another law that we can change on a whim. It is a right held by our people that needs to be defended. I own guns. I use guns. I’m a member of the NRA. I support greater reciprocity for concealed carry. I’ll remain a strong proponent of the Second Amendment.

AGRICULTURE

Agriculture is South Dakota’s number-one industry and it underpins the culture of our state. We live in a state where we trust our neighbors and look out for each other – and in the eyes of the east and west coasts, even our largest cities are small towns. I’ll work hard on behalf of our farmers and ranchers and our way of life.

Maintaining strong agriculture in our country is a matter of national security. Our farmers and ranchers are the very best, most productive in the world. We need to keep it that way. I’ll keep a close eye on the forthcoming 2018 Farm Bill and will be an advocate for productive, strong agriculture in South Dakota and across the country.

SUPPORT FOR THE ARMED FORCES
​ We owe our way of life to the brave men and women who wear the uniform, and I will be a strong advocate for our troops. I will also support a foreign policy that is based on our national interests and the principle of "peace through strength" and support for our longtime allies - so that if our troops are put in harm's way, it is only as a last resort and in the service of our national interests.

I will also be an advocate for our veterans and ensure that our nation keeps the promises we made to these heroes. [38]

”
—Dusty Johnson’s campaign website (2018)[39]

Shantel Krebs

Krebs' campaign website stated the following:

“

Agriculture
Agriculture is the cornerstone of our state’s economy. As a fourth generation farm-kid, I understand the burden placed on farmers and ranchers by overregulation. I will work with President Trump to roll back harmful bureaucratic overreach and bring critical infrastructure and technology to rural communities.

Education
Every child in South Dakota deserves the opportunity to thrive. The best way to do that is to give the power of educating our children back to those who know best, our parents, teachers and local school districts. As a legislator I fought against the implementation of common core standards and I will continue to advocate on behalf of school choice policies so that parents -not Washington bureaucrats -can decide what is best for their children.

Government Accountability
Taxpayers should not have to bear the financial burden of a reckless government. It is time for Washington to balance its books like hardworking families across South Dakota do every day. In my office as Secretary of State, we cut our budget, became more efficient and learned to do more with less—the federal government should learn to do the same.

Immigration
There is no fix to our nation’s broken immigration system until we solve the problem of illegal immigration. We cannot undermine the safety of our citizens any longer; a strong border is a matter of national security. I will work with President Trump to secure our borders, implement extreme vetting, and build the wall.

Jobs and the Economy
Our nation’s path to safety lies in economic prosperity. Ensuring our safety means continuing to lift the incredible burden our tax code has created on families and businesses. Until Washington can eliminate waste and fraudulent spending, they cannot be trusted to spend and invest your hard-earned money. I support President Trump’s sensible tax cuts that give economic control back to the people, encourage job creation, and increase revenue.

National Defense
I believe our nation’s safety should be the federal government’s number one priority. Our military must stand ready to face the world’s threats—we need to ensure they have our support. I will work in Washington to guarantee our military strength and preparedness. Whether here in South Dakota at Ellsworth Air Force Base or overseas, I stand with our men and women in uniform.

Obamacare
For eight years politicians in Washington have made empty promises about repealing and replacing Obama’s disastrous law. We have a real opportunity with President Trump in the White House to repeal Obamacare once and for all. I will work with Congress to advocate for solutions that provide greater access to affordable care for all. South Dakota families deserve to have control over their healthcare.

Overregulation
As a small business owner myself, I understand the burden Washington bureaucrats place on our economy with overregulation. We must reform our regulatory process by returning economic oversight to the states to provide local solutions. I will not let Washington damper our nation’s entrepreneurial spirit. Together, we can loosen Washington’s regulatory grip on South Dakota families and businesses.

Pro-Life
I stand unapologetically on the side of life. As a legislator I have a 100% voting record from South Dakota Right to Life and am proud to have the endorsement of Susan B. Anthony List in my bid for Congress. I will work tirelessly to protect the unborn and ensure that not one single taxpayer dollar goes to funding abortions.

Religious Freedom
Freedom of religion is the right not just to believe but to freely exercise our faith, yet religious people and communities around the country are under attack. I am grateful to have a President that will stand against these assaults on our constitutional rights. In Congress, I will join his effort by working to preserve fundamental liberties in our businesses, schools, and communities.

Second Amendment
The constitution is clear, every American has the right to protect themselves, their families and their homes with firearms. We know that gun control fails to stop criminals, it only takes away the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens. As a proud gun owner and lifetime member of the NRA, I will fight to protect the Second Amendment from liberal gun-grabbers.

Veterans
Our nation is forever indebted to the men and women who courageously fought for our freedoms. The Department of Veterans Affairs is overrun with dysfunction and backlog that prevents veterans from a smooth transition back into civilian life. I support the President and Republicans in Congress as they pass legislation which eliminates the bureaucratic roadblocks to efficient care for our vets. [38]

”
—Shantel Krebs' campaign website (2018)[40]


Neal Tapio

Tapio's campaign website stated the following:

“

Gun Rights

I’m a strong and unwavering supporter of our 2nd Amendment rights. As a hunter I value the importance of gun rights, and understand that hunting is a part of our heritage. But the 2nd Amendment isn’t just about hunting, it’s also an important part of South Dakotans right to self defense. As a State Senator, I am proud to say that I have an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association and the National Association for Gun Rights.

As your Congressman, I will work tirelessly to defend the 2nd Amendment as well as the entire Bill of Rights.

Right to Life

The right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are at the core of my beliefs, I am 100% pro life.

As your Congressman, I will continue do everything in my power to defend the unborn and work for legislation that defends the sanctity of human life at every stage of development.

Taxes

Looking ahead I think we need to be skeptical of any new tax increase proposals, two of the past three legislative sessions we have seen significant new tax increases pass. While those dollars have been used to fund critical functions of government it’s important that we allow Americans to keep as much of their hard earned money as possible.

Government Corruption

South Dakota has done a less than adequate job of preventing corruption in state government. In the last several years we have seen such problems with EB-5 and Gear up, the people of South Dakota deserve answers from those accountable and as your state Representative I will support all efforts to ensure that the corruption we have seen in the past is uncovered and not repeated.

Education

I am a strong supporter of education and believe that it is best served at the local level. The parent is the most important component in a child’s education and should be the final authority in determining the educational opportunities and tutelage of their children. Each school is unique and their interests are better left to local parents, teachers and school board. As South Dakota’s Congressman, I will continue to work to ensure that our schools receive the necessary funding for our children to thrive, while working to maximize parental control over the educational process. [38]

”
—Neal Tapio's campaign website (2018)[41]


Media coverage

  • Sioux Falls Argus Leader endorsement of Dusty Johnson (May 24, 2018): "In the current sea of political bombast and partisan extremes, it’s difficult for a measured voice to be heard...While Johnson looms as an establishment candidate at a time when the public’s ire is aimed directly at our various establishments, it’s also true that he is best equipped to represent South Dakota as our congressional representative. Johnson’s youthful appearance belies his vast experience in state politics. He spent six years on the PUC, leaving that post to become chief of staff for Gov. Dennis Daugaard up until 2014, when he joined the private sector. He is a longtime conservative voice in South Dakota, working in policy and grass roots positions since graduating from the University of South Dakota.
As the June 5 primary approaches, both Krebs and Tapio have taken to riding the coattails of President Donald Trump, echoing some of his most divisive rhetoric on immigration and joining attacks of “fake news” from mainstream media. The current goal is obviously to gain the GOP nomination, and only registered Republicans can vote in the primary. But all South Dakotans should be rooting for Johnson’s credibility and experience to win the day. You can’t effectively represent the entire state if you’re a one trick pony like Tapio, who plays off ignorance and fear to advance a hateful anti-Muslim agenda. And Krebs has taken a sharp turn from her successful stint as Secretary of State, running hard to the right in an apparent attempt to lure Trump’s most steadfast supporters in South Dakota. At times, the “extreme vetting” campaign pledges of Tapio and Krebs have played like a race to the bottom of the question, “Who can be the most xenophobic?”
Johnson stayed above that fray. That’s not to say he doesn’t have thoughts on immigration. It’s that his positions on border security are more nuanced and acknowledge the value of legal immigration while still looking for safeguards for abuse. His refusal to reach for a dog whistle enhances his status as a mature and moderate Republican voice. Throughout his political career, the 41-year-old Pierre native has displayed a consistency in his ideals and demeanor, and in turn a faith in the South Dakota electorate. He is banking on voters looking past the bombast to rely on a more principled level of leadership when they head to the polls.[42]
  • Watertown Public Opinion (May 12, 2018): "Four of the five people seeking Republican nominations for governor and U.S. House of Representatives June 5 have tied themselves to President Donald Trump. Two are U.S. House candidates: Secretary of State Shantel Krebs and state Sen. Neal Tapio. In the governor’s contest, state Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem have. The Republican exception so far is Republican Dusty Johnson, who’s running for the U.S. House."[43]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: South Dakota's At-large Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+14, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District the 89th most Republican nationally.[44]


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 66 South Dakota counties—7.6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Corson County, South Dakota 4.51% 11.08% 21.48%
Day County, South Dakota 23.77% 6.16% 12.89%
Marshall County, South Dakota 15.51% 8.66% 16.48%
Roberts County, South Dakota 15.53% 9.84% 19.64%
Ziebach County, South Dakota 1.96% 16.43% 27.16%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Dakota with 61.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 31.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Dakota cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 63.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Dakota supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 86.7 to 10.0 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[45][46]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won six out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 19.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 12.7 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 22.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 33 out of 37 state House districts in South Dakota with an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

External links

Shantel Krebs

Dusty Johnson

Neal Tapio

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 The Daily Republic, "Rounds declines to endorse 2018 GOP primary candidates," August 18, 2017 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "endorse1" defined multiple times with different content
  2. ↑ Hub City Radio, "Johnson reflects on trying to work with President Trump," August 23, 2017
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 U.S. News and World Report, "Kris Kobach Endorses Shantel Krebs' Congressional Bid," December 14, 2017
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 KDLT, "US Congressional Candidate Neal Tapio Calls for End of Indian Reservation," June 1, 2018
  5. ↑ Ratings are based on projections found in Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, and The Cook Political Report. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season.
  6. ↑ Rapid City Journal, "Dusty Johnson has high hopes for Congress," July 31, 2017
  7. ↑ Dusty Johnson for Congress, "Issues," accessed March 8, 2018
  8. ↑ Watertown Public Opinion, "Johnson wants Congress to budget every two years," April 7, 2018
  9. ↑ Dusty Johnson for Congress, "About," accessed March 8, 2018
  10. ↑ Shantel Krebs for Congress, "Home," accessed March 8, 2018
  11. ↑ Shantel Krebs for Congress, "About," accessed March 8, 2018
  12. ↑ Watertown Public Opinion, "Tapio plans to be fourth candidate for U.S. House," September 1, 2017
  13. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Tapioenter
  14. ↑ The Daily Republic, "State Sen. Tapio enters the race for U.S. House," January 29, 2018
  15. ↑ Neal Tapio for Congress, "Tapio Moves to End Refugee Resettlement in South Dakota," accessed March 8, 2018
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Rapid City Journal, "Krebs escalates snake fight in House race," April 7, 2018
  17. ↑ Neal Tapio for Congress, "Meet Neal," accessed March 8, 2018
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 ProPublica, "South Dakota’s At-Large House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed May 29, 2018
  19. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission", accessed February 13, 2018
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "'Stakes are so incredibly high': House candidates back Trump's trade deals," May 16, 2018
  21. ↑ Sioux Falls Leader, "South Dakota House candidates say religion, deregulation will solve U.S. spending problems," May 8, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 Rapid City Journal, "Tapio questions religious freedom for Muslims," January 21, 2018 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "ISLAM" defined multiple times with different content
  23. ↑ Neal Tapio for Congress, "Tapio Pushes Back at Critics, Says Politicians Lack Courage for Tough Issues," January 11, 2018
  24. ↑ Dakota War College, "Krebs campaign notes endorsement from Congressman Steve King of Iowa," May 24, 2018
  25. ↑ Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "Letter: Vote for conservative Republicans in primary," May 14, 2018
  26. ↑ American Nurses Association, "American Nurses Association Political Action Committee Endorses Ten Congressional Candidates," May 31, 2018
  27. ↑ Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "Editorial: Dusty Johnson best GOP option for U.S. House," May 24, 2018
  28. ↑ Roll Call, "Republican Main Street Partnership Backs 10 Recruits," April 26, 2018
  29. ↑ Rapid City Journal, "Campaign Roundup: House, governor races intensifying," February 7, 2018
  30. ↑ Rapid City Journal, "Super PAC attack on Krebs has ties to 'No Labels' movement," May 27, 2017
  31. ↑ Argus Leader, "Former Trump state campaign director Neal Tapio announces bid for U.S. House," January 29, 2018
  32. ↑ Rapid City Journal, "PODCAST: Candidate says incumbents meet slaughter with silence," March 5, 2018
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "House candidates pass on gun control in school safety debate," May 23, 2018
  34. ↑ Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "South Dakota House race: Krebs campaign targets Johnson's state plane use in TV ad spot," May 25, 2018
  35. ↑ Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "U.S House race: Shantel Krebs, Dusty Johnson spar over TV ad," May 29, 2018
  36. ↑ KSFY, "Gov. Daugaard says Dusty Johnson used state plane for state business," May 31, 2018
  37. ↑ Watertown Public Opinion, "Dusty Johnson: ‘I’m starting our advertising campaign with newspapers’," March 9, 2018
  38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 38.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  39. ↑ Dusty Johnson for Congress, “Issues,” accessed March 8, 2018
  40. ↑ Shantel Krebs for Congress, “Issues,” accessed March 8, 2018
  41. ↑ Neal Tapio for Congress, “Issues,” accessed March 8, 2018
  42. ↑ Sioux Falls Argus Leader, "Editorial: Dusty Johnson best GOP option for U.S. House," May 24, 2018
  43. ↑ Watertown Public Opinion, "In primaries Republicans are betting big on Trump," May 12, 2018
  44. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  45. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  46. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


South Dakota's current delegation to the United States Congress
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