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The Tap: Trump’s One Path to Victory

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October 15, 2016Issue No. 38

The Tap Graphic-750x191px.png

The week in review: October 8 - October 14
What's on Tap next week: October 15 - October 21

Navigate The Tap by clicking the tabs below:

Federal

What's on tap?

  • Every four years, talk amongst politicos turns to one number: 270, the number of electoral votes needed to win the general election and become president. But here’s another number: 159, the number of electoral votes that are actually up for grabs this cycle. Ballotpedia has identified 12 states and two congressional districts (Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes proportionally) that will likely decide the outcome of the presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In electoral votes, that comes to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority. The reason these states and two districts have so much sway in the 2016 presidential election is largely because most of the electoral college map is already set in place before any votes for president are cast, but the battleground states are still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes from 22 states. We know this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data. What this means is that 38 states and Washington, D.C.—a total of 379 electoral votes—are not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states are, and there are more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House.
    • But here’s where things get really interesting. Clinton needs slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump. To win, she needs only 70 of the 159 electoral votes in the battlegrounds, while Trump needs 91. Those 21 electoral votes that separate Clinton and Trump might not sound all that significant, but they are. Ballotpedia broke down all the different combinations of battleground states that could get Clinton and Trump to 270 electoral votes or higher. We found that Clinton has almost twice as many paths to victory as Trump (10,581 different combinations vs. 5,572, respectively). Those numbers change dramatically, however, when polling data from battleground states is added into the mix. Using polling averages current as of October 13, 2016, we took the states where Clinton was ahead by five points or more (WI, MI, NH, VA, and PA) and gave her those states' electoral votes, bringing her total to 263. We did the same for Trump, adding ME-2 and NE-2, giving him a total of 181 electoral votes. Under these circumstances, we found that Clinton has 125 paths to victory, while Trump has one. He would need to win all seven states still in contention (NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, and FL).
    • Looking for more details? You can explore the thousands of different paths to the presidency here: Presidential battleground states, 2016
 

Federal

The Week in Review

Saturday, October 8

  • Following the release of a 2005 tape of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women, a string of high-profile Republicans denounced his campaign, with some calling for him to drop out of the race and others saying they won’t vote for him. By Ballotpedia’s count, 46 Republicans have said Trump should drop out and/or that they won’t vote for him. This number includes 21 members of the House, 12 senators, and seven governors. That number was originally higher, but four Republican lawmakers—Deb Fischer, Scott Garrett, Bradley Byrne, and John Thune—later reversed their stances and voiced support for Trump.
    • House Speaker Paul Ryan, who cancelled a campaign event with Trump scheduled for Saturday, did not withdraw his support from Trump but said he was “sickened” by Trump’s comments in the tape. “I am sickened by what I heard today. Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified. I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests,” said Ryan. On Monday, Ryan reportedly told House Republicans that he intends to spend the rest of the general election season focused on maintaining Republicans’ majorities in Congress and would no longer campaign for Trump. “The speaker is going to spend the next month focused entirely on protecting our congressional majorities,” a spokesperson for Ryan said. Trump reacted to the news on Twitter, saying, “Paul Ryan should spend more time on balancing the budget, jobs and illegal immigration and not waste his time on fighting Republican nominee.”
    • See also: Republican reactions to 2005 Trump tape and What options does the GOP have if Trump drops out?

Sunday, October 9

  • The second presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump took place Sunday night in St. Louis, Missouri. The debate came on the heels of two major revelations on Friday: a tape of Trump making comments about women—comments that have been described as “extremely lewd” and suggestive of sexual assault—and a Wikileaks release of a batch of emails from key members of the Clinton campaign that appear to include excerpts from Clinton’s paid Wall Street speeches. Both revelations came up in the debate in addition to policy issues such as healthcare, taxes, energy, foreign affairs, and the Supreme Court. The debate was moderated by Martha Raddatz of ABC News and Anderson Cooper of CNN. An estimated 66 million viewers tuned in, close to 20 million less than the record-setting 84 million who watched the first debate on September 26. Ballotpedia’s coverage included an Insiders Poll, statistical analysis, and commentary written by Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute and Ballotpedia senior writer Jim Barnes. The third and final debate takes place on October 19, 2016, in Las Vegas, Nevada.
    • Insiders Poll: After the October 9 debate concluded, Ballotpedia surveyed more than 150 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, finding that an overwhelming majority of these Democratic Insiders thought Clinton had a good night. At the same time, a majority Republicans thought Trump did well too. Among the 79 Democratic Insiders who responded, a whopping 86 percent declared Clinton the “biggest winner” of the night. Another 13 percent called the debate a draw, and 1 percent (one Democratic Insider) said that Trump had captured the evening. This is very consistent with how they viewed the outcome of the first face-off between Clinton and Trump. But the 80 Republican Insiders had a different view: Almost two-thirds—63 percent—thought Trump got the better of Clinton in the clash on Sunday night. After the first debate, only 32 percent of the GOP Insiders thought Trump was the biggest winner and a plurality—38 percent—even gave the edge to Clinton. Sunday night, 19 percent of the Republicans thought the debate was a draw and another 19 percent thought Clinton won.



    • Stats: Although Donald Trump accused the moderators of not giving him an equal amount of time to respond to Hillary Clinton, both candidates spoke for approximately 39 minutes. Trump also said approximately 1,000 more words than Clinton. Half of the discussion segments related to presidential temperament, character, and fitness. Only one-sixth of the debate's discussion segments were focused on foreign affairs or national security, and during those segments, the three most frequently mentioned countries were Russia, Syria, and Iraq. Several politicians and high-profile individuals were named more than once throughout the debate, including First Lady Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Captain Humayun Khan. President Barack Obama and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were mentioned most frequently.
    • Commentary: Karlyn Bowman argued that neither candidate did much to help their causes, writing, “Trump didn’t seem to do more damage to his campaign although that is a low bar. Clinton didn’t enhance her appeal. Both have serious weaknesses and they were visible once again last night.” Jim Barnes commented on the debate’s uniqueness in the history of American politics, noting, “There hasn’t been a presidential debate like the one that took place on Sunday night. Donald Trump decided to become a one-man wrecking ball on the debate stage at Washington University in St. Louis.”
  • The Columbus Dispatch, which has traditionally backed Republican presidential nominees, endorsed Hillary Clinton. "For us, the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is not pleasant, but it isn’t difficult. Republican candidate Donald Trump is unfit to be president of the United States. Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite her flaws, is well-equipped for the job," the editors wrote.
  • Navy Captain Jeff Davis said that the U.S. was considering retaliatory measures after two missiles were fired at the USS Mason. Both of the missiles missed the Mason and landed in the Red Sea. According to The Hill, “Officials say the missiles came from territory controlled by the Houthis, Iran-supported rebels who ousted the Yemeni government from its capital, Sanaa, in September 2015.” Davis added, "It's no secret that Iran has been supplying them with the tools of war.”

Monday, October 10

  • In an interview with CNN, Gary Johnson said that he would likely continue some of Barack Obama’s approach to fighting ISIS. He said, “I don't want to do anything that takes a step backwards. ... Not for a second do I want to say that Obama has not been well-thought [on this issue]. But if he has been, if you're saying that he has been, I'm making the pitch that I'm going to be a continuation of that." Johnson gave a foreign policy speech in Chicago last week in which he elaborated on his views on military and defense issues. He said, “It is difficult, if not impossible, to identify an instance where our military interventions and regime changes in the past 15 years have improved the lives of anyone. Iraq? Yes, Saddam Hussein was a bad guy. No question about it. But are the Iraqi people better off today because we decided to take him out? Are we safer here in America? No.”
  • Priorities USA, the top super PAC backing Hillary Clinton, has begun to produce ads for Senate races in North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. "Until now, Priorities USA has spent the 2016 election cycle entirely focused on the top of the ticket—getting Clinton elected. The fact that they may use their resources to also promote Democratic candidates in down-ballot races suggests how increasingly confident they are in a Clinton victory," CNN noted.
  • Corey Stewart was fired as Donald Trump’s Virginia campaign co-chairman after staging a protest outside the headquarters for the Republican National Committee. The protest was intended to warn the RNC against abandoning its support of Trump. Deputy campaign manager David Bossie fired Stewart immediately, saying, “He is being replaced, effective immediately. Corey made this decision when he staged a stunt in front of the RNC without the knowledge or the approval of the Trump campaign.”

Tuesday, October 11

  • Donna Brazile, the interim chair of the Democratic National Committee, denied sending the Clinton campaign a moderator question in advance of a town hall taped in March 2016. According to an email allegedly obtained by WikiLeaks from Clinton campaign chair John Podesta's email account, Brazile, who was a contributor to CNN at the time, sent top Clinton advisor Jennifer Palmieri the exact wording of a question about the death penalty that was later used in the town hall. The subject of the email was "From time to time I get the questions in advance."
    • Brazile said in a statement, "As a longtime political activist with deep ties in our party, I supported all of our candidates for president. I often shared my thoughts with each and every campaign, and any suggestions that indicate otherwise are simply untrue. As it pertains to the CNN Debates, I never had access to questions and would never have shared them with the candidates if I did."
    • Top CNN official Barbara Levin also denied the allegations. "To be perfectly clear, we have never, ever given a town hall question to anyone beforehand," she said.
    • Moderator Roland Martin initially said in response to the story, “I don’t share my questions with anybody. Literally. My executive producer wasn’t even aware of what I was going to ask.” He later amended, “I shared my questions with my executive producer, she was the one who sent my questions to the folks with CNN.”
    • Podesta said that he had spoken with the Federal Bureau of Investigation "as a victim" of hacking and accused the Russian government of meddling in the U.S. election through the hack. “I’ve been involved in politics for nearly five decades. This definitely is the first campaign that I’ve been involved with in which I’ve had to tangle with Russian intelligence agencies who seem to be doing everything that they can on behalf of our opponent.”
    • See also: Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016/WikiLeaks
  • In another email thread released by WikiLeaks, Chelsea Clinton expressed "serious concerns" that Teneo, a consulting firm that had hired former President Bill Clinton as an advisor, was using his name to gain access to foreign officials for profit. She wrote that a Teneo employee had "called Members of the House and Members of Parliament, 'on behalf of President Clinton,' for Teneo clients...without my father's knowledge and inelegantly and ineffectually at best and at worse has now precipitating people in London making comparisons between my father and Tony Blair's profit motivations. Which would horrify my father." Chelsea Clinton had previously expressed concern with potential conflicts of interest at the Clinton Foundation, initiating an audit of the nonprofit's conflict of interest practices. Doug Band, an aide to Clinton and one of the founders of Teneo, told Bill Clinton that Chelsea Clinton was trying to "push him out, take over" in her efforts to "professionalize" the organization. Documents were later drafted to clarify how Bill Clinton’s various personal and professional activities—at the Clinton Foundation and elsewhere—should be handled. According to Politico, "Band continued to be paid by the Clinton Foundation into 2012, and by Bill Clinton’s taxpayer-subsidized personal office through January 2013, but he has since become distanced from the family, even as Teneo’s clientele continued to overlap with the Clinton Foundation’s donor rolls."
  • Hillary Clinton announced a plan to increase and expand the Child Tax Credit (CTC) as a form of "middle class tax relief." Under her proposal, the CTC would increase from $1,000 to $2,000 for each child four years of age or younger. She would also "lower the threshold for refundability from $3,000 to the first dollar of earnings for families."
  • Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim criticized Hillary Clinton for saying during the second presidential debate that she would consider arming the Kurds in order to empower them in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Yildirim said, “Isn’t America our ally? Isn’t it our NATO ally? Isn’t it our ally in the region? What does it mean to support weapons with weapons?” He continued, “Where in the world have you ever seen this? How moral is it, how ethical is it, how right is it to fight a terrorist organization with another terrorist organization, to defeat a terrorist organization with another terrorist organization?”
  • Former Vice President Al Gore joined Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally in Florida where she discussed climate change and clean energy. He encouraged voters to support Clinton by referencing his narrow presidential loss in 2000, saying, “Your vote really, really, really counts. You can consider me as Exhibit A of that.”
  • Donald Trump's campaign released a new ad focused on Hillary Clinton's health. The ad includes images or warfare and various moments of Clinton showing signs of ill health in public, while a narrator states, “Hillary Clinton failed every single time as secretary of state. Now she wants to be president. Hillary Clinton doesn’t have the fortitude, strength, or stamina to lead in our world.” The issue of health is not an uncommon one in presidential election years, but it has come to play an outsized role in the 2016 election. One reason for this is that—at 69 and 70 years old respectively—Clinton and Trump will be two of the oldest presidential nominees in U.S. history on election day in November. Polling data suggests that voters have some concerns about the health of presidential candidates. Most voters think that candidates should release personal health records, and most voters also say a candidate's health has at least some impact on their preference for president. Read more about the history of health in presidential elections, public opinion on the issue, and what we know about the health of the 2016 presidential candidates.
  • Almost two dozen former Justice Department officials who served under five different Republican administrations released a letter condemning Donald Trump. The letter focused on Trump’s comments at the second presidential debate in which he said he would appoint a federal prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state and that, if he is elected, Clinton will “be in jail.” The letter stated, “We believe that Donald Trump’s impulsive treatment, flair for controversy, vindictive approach to his opponents and alarming views outside the constitutional mainstream ill suit him to oversee the execution of the laws in a fair and evenhanded manner. None of us will vote for Mr. Trump and all believe he must be defeated at the polls.”
  • Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson announced that a temporary hold has been placed on deporting Haitians because of Hurricane Matthew. He said, "We will have to deal with that situation, address it, be sympathetic to the plight of the people of Haiti as a result of the hurricane.” He added deportations will continue once the humanitarian crisis is under control. According to NBC News, “An Obama administration directive unveiled last month was designed to put an end to temporary provisions that allowed Haitians to enter the U.S. without a visa. That policy came out of an extraordinary wave of migrants coming to the U.S. in the years since Haiti was hit by a devastating earthquake in 2010.”
  • The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in three cases. In Manrique v. United States, the court reviewed when and how many notices of appeal must be filed when challenging a sentence imposing restitution. In Samsung Electronics v. Apple, the court considered whether, when a design patent is applied only to a component of a product, a patent infringer’s profits should be forfeited on the entire product or just on those components protected under patent. In Pena-Rodriguez v. Colorado, the court examined whether a Colorado rule of evidence that prohibits the use of jury deliberations as evidence generally can still prohibit the use of such testimony when the testimony provides evidence of a juror's racial bias.

Wednesday, October 12

  • The editors of The Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Hillary Clinton, writing, "Utah Republicans were perceptive enough to reject Trump in their March presidential caucus voting. Were they to support Clinton now, even by the narrowest of pluralities, it would send a strong message to the Republican Party to turn their backs on Trumpism and to work with Clinton where they can, rather than devote themselves to blocking her every move." Recent polling from Utah has shown that the typically red state could become a battleground for Clinton due to the surge in popularity of independent conservative Evan McMullin.
  • In response to a New York Times story in which two women alleged that Donald Trump had touched them inappropriately, Trump’s lawyers sent a letter to The Times demanding a retraction. Calling the story “reckless” and “defamatory,” Trump’s lawyers said, “We hereby demand that you immediately cease any further publication of this article, remove it from your website and issue a full and immediate retraction and apology. Lawyers for The Times responded in a letter on Thursday, saying, “We decline to do so.” The letter went on to state, “We did what the law allows: We published newsworthy information about a subject of deep public concern. If Mr. Trump disagrees, if he believes that American citizens had no right to hear what these women had to say and that the law of this country forces us and those who would dare to criticize him to stand silent or be punished, we welcome the opportunity to have a court set him straight.”
    • Trump campaign spokesperson Katrina Pierson denied that Trump was involved in the incidents. Citing one woman’s claim of misconduct on an airplane, Pierson told CNN, “Guess what? First-class seats have fixed armrests! So what I can tell you about her story, if she was groped on a plane, it wasn’t by Donald Trump and it certainly wasn’t in first class.”
  • At a campaign event in Florida, Donald Trump said that Hillary Clinton “has to go to jail” over her use of a private email server as secretary of state. “After getting the subpoena to give over her emails, and lots of other things, she deleted the emails, she has to go to jail.” At a different event in Florida, Trump stated, “This is the most heinous, the most serious thing that I've ever seen involving justice in the United States — in the history of the United States. We have a person that has committed crimes that is now running for the presidency.”
  • A new poll shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied at 26 points each in Utah. Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who is a graduate of Brigham Young University in Utah, registered at 22 percent, followed by Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 14 percent. Utah is one of the most reliably red states in the country, having voted Republican over Democratic 72 percent of the time in elections between 1900 and 2012. The last time it backed a Democratic candidate for president was in 1964. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won the state by almost 50 points.
  • The U.S. Department of Education released final regulations for teacher preparation programs that train and license teachers. The new regulations require states to report each year on various teacher preparation program metrics, such as the rate of teachers who stick with teaching during their first three years on the job and feedback from program graduates on the effectiveness of the programs. States must then use this information to rate programs as effective, at-risk, or low-performing. Programs rated as less than effective for any two out of three years lose eligibility for federal grants that are awarded to program students who agree to teach in high-need schools after graduation. The first reports are required for the 2017-2018 school year.
  • Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, whose emails had reportedly been hacked by WikiLeaks earlier in the week, had his Twitter account hacked. The hacked tweet said, “I’ve switched teams. Vote Trump 2016.”

Thursday, October 13

  • The editorial board of The Washington Post endorsed Hillary Clinton. They noted that they were "not making this endorsement simply because Ms. Clinton’s chief opponent is dreadful," but rather because of Clinton’s "seriousness of purpose and relentless commitment, even in the face of great obstacles, to achievements in the public interest." They wrote, "In the gloom and ugliness of this political season, one encouraging truth is often overlooked: There is a well-qualified, well-prepared candidate on the ballot. Hillary Clinton has the potential to be an excellent president of the United States, and we endorse her without hesitation.”
  • WikiLeaks released a sixth batch of emails allegedly taken from Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s email account archive. Nine thousands emails have been published and more daily releases are expected as WikiLeaks has said that they have 50,000 messages in total.
  • In a speech in Florida, Donald Trump sharply criticized the media and suggested they are working to elect Hillary Clinton. He said, “Let’s be clear on one thing, the corporate media in our country is no longer involved in journalism – they are a political special interest no different from a lobbyist. Their agenda is to elect crooked Hillary Clinton at any cost, at any price, no matter how many lives they destroy. … These vicious claims about me of inappropriate conduct with women are totally and absolutely false. These claims are all fiction, entirely fabricated and are outright lies.” Trump’s comments followed a series of allegations on Wednesday that he had touched women inappropriately.
  • Donald Trump laid out a student loan repayment plan in a speech in Ohio. He said, “We would cap repayment for an affordable portion of the borrower’s income, 12.5 percent, we’d cap it. That gives you a lot to play with and a lot to do. And if borrowers work hard and make their full payments for 15 years, we’ll let them get on with their lives. They just go ahead and they get on with their lives. … Students should not be asked to pay more on the debt than they can afford. And the debt should not be an albatross around their necks for the rest of their lives.”
  • Ten former nuclear launch control officers released an open letter arguing that Donald Trump should not be trusted with nuclear codes. The letter states, “The pressures the system places on that one person are staggering and require enormous composure, judgement [sic], restraint, and diplomatic skill. Donald Trump does not have these leadership qualities. … Donald Trump should not be the nation’s commander-in-chief. He should not be entrusted with the nuclear launch codes. He should not have his finger on the button.”
  • U.S. Navy destroyer USS Nitze launched Tomahawk cruise missiles “to knock out three coastal radar sites in areas of Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi forces,” according to Reuters. The strikes were in response to failed missile attacks on the USS Mason Sunday and Wednesday. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said, "These limited self-defense strikes were conducted to protect our personnel, our ships, and our freedom of navigation. … The United States will respond to any further threat to our ships and commercial traffic, as appropriate," Cook said.
    • According to Reuters, the missile attacks “appeared to be the Houthis' response to a suspected Saudi-led strike on mourners gathered in Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa. Michael Knights, an expert on Yemen's conflict at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested the Houthis, fighters from a Shi'ite sect, could be becoming more militarily aligned with groups such as Lebanon's Shi'ite militant group Hezbollah.” Knight said, "Targeting U.S. warships is a sign that the Houthis have decided to join the axis of resistance that currently includes Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran.”
    • Houthi rebel leaders denied responsibility for recent attacks on the USS Mason and criticized the U.S. for destroying radar sites. Houthi military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Sharaf Luqman Haq said that “direct American attack and targeting of Yemeni territory this morning is unacceptable and any developments will be dealt with accordingly.”
  • The Trump campaign effectively ended its work in Virginia, pulling all ground staff and shifting its focus to Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, according to NBC News. Corey Stewart, who was fired as the Virginia campaign chair on Monday after staging a protest against the Republican National Committee, blamed the RNC for a lack of support. He told The Wall Street Journal, “The RNC has not been very friendly and has been pulling resources out. They’ve been starving the Virginia Trump campaign even though it’s necessary to win the country. If we lose this state, it’s because of the RNC reneging on their promises to adequately fund the state’s ad program and ground operation.” A spokesperson for the Trump campaign stated that Trump was still committed to winning Virginia. “We remain absolutely committed to winning in Virginia. While we’re reallocating some of our staff strategically to accommodate early voting in nearby priority states such as North Carolina, our campaign leadership and staffing remains strong in Virginia.” An October 11 analysis of polls by FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 92% chance of winning the state. Virginia is a key battleground state in the 2016 election.
  • Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced that the Department of Justice will begin collecting data nationwide on police-involved shootings and other police encounters that include the use of force. Lynch said, “Accurate and comprehensive data on the use of force by law enforcement is essential to an informed and productive discussion about community-police relations. The initiatives we are announcing today are vital efforts toward increasing transparency and building trust between law enforcement and the communities we serve. In the days ahead, the Department of Justice will continue to work alongside our local, state, tribal and federal partners to ensure that we put in place a system to collect data that is comprehensive, useful and responsive to the needs of the communities we serve.”

 

Congress is NOT in session SCOTUS is IN session
Congress is in fall recess until November 13, 2016. The Supreme Court is between argument sessions. The court will continue to issue orders throughout the session break and will next hear arguments on Monday, October 31.

What’s On Tap Next Week

Monday, October 17

Tuesday, October 18

  • Join Ballotpedia's election policy conflicts webinar as our resident expert discusses how election policy disputes are playing out in state legislatures and courts across the country. Ballotpedia has been tracking the laws, court cases, and reform efforts that impact election policy. Register to learn about where these conflicts have been occurring and what can be expected in November.

Wednesday, October 19

  • The third and final presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will take place on October 19. Here is everything you need to know:
    • It starts at 9 pm ET and will last 90 minutes, commercial-free.
    • The venue is the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.
    • Chris Wallace of FOX News will be the moderator. Wallace moderated the first Republican primary debate on August 6, 2015. He is the first FOX News anchor to moderate a general election debate.
    • Wallace announced the debate’s topics in a press release on October 12. Topics include debt and entitlements, immigration, the economy, the Supreme Court, “foreign hot spots,” and “fitness to be president.”
    • In terms of format, the Commission on Presidential Debates states that the debate will be composed of six 15-minute segments, each covering a major topic selected by the moderator and made public a week prior to the debate. Each segment will open with a question and each candidate will have two minutes to respond—followed by responses to each other—with the remaining time being used for deeper discussion.
    • Third debates tend to have slightly fewer viewers than first and second debates. Two exceptions were 2004 and 1992. In 2004, the first debate between John Kerry (D) and George W. Bush (R) had 62.4 million, the second had 46.7 million, and the third had 51.1 million. In 1992, the first debate between Bill Clinton (D), George H.W. Bush (R), and Ross Perot (I) had 62.4 million, the second had 69.9 million, and the third had 66.9 million.
    • On October 14, 2016, the CPD announced that it had invited Clinton and Trump to the third presidential debate. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were not invited because they did not meet the 15-percent polling average threshold required by the CPD. In a statement, the CPD said that its board of directors had "determined that the polling averages called for in the third criterion are as follows: Hillary Clinton (45.8%), Donald Trump (40.4%), Gary Johnson (7.0%) and Jill Stein (2.2%). Accordingly, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump qualify to participate in the October 19 debate. No other candidates satisfied the criteria for inclusion in the October 19 debate."
    • See also: Presidential debate at the University of Nevada (October 19, 2016)
  • Join Ballotpedia's energy and environmental policy conflicts webinar as we discuss the Obama administration's major policy initiatives and the expected impact of the 2016 presidential election on those policies. Our experts will review these policies, update you on the legal challenges, and review how congressional elections could impact these policies. Register to learn how the policies have renewed the debate about the role of the federal government in setting energy and environmental policies for the states.

Thursday, October 20

  • Join Ballotpedia's heathcare policy conflicts webinar as our expert reviews the healthcare issue that has risen to prominence during the 2016 election cycle: prescription drug prices. We will also review how at the state level, legislatures are still debating whether and how to expand their Medicaid programs as provided for under Obamacare. Register to learn how the debate over Obamacare has continued through 2016 and has been fueled by a series of co-op failures, major insurer exits, and premium rate increases.

 

Where was the president last week? Federal judiciary
President Barack Obama attended events in Pennsylvania and Ohio toward the end of the week, including a fundraiser for Ted Strickland.  
  • 105 total federal judicial vacancies
  • 65 pending nominations
  • 15 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

What's on tap?

Local

On Tuesday, October 11, The Denver Post reported that billionaire Democratic donor George Soros had donated at least $179,000 to an outside organization to defeat Jefferson and Gilpin County District Attorney Pete Weir. The paper reported that Soros’ money went to Colorado Safety and Justice, an organization attacking Weir with mailers stating, “Women and children aren’t safe from sexual violence with Pete Weir as district attorney.” See also: Money in local elections

State

On Thursday, October 13, the Arkansas Supreme Court announced decisions on three 2016 ballot initiatives, striking Issue 4 and Issue 5 from the ballot and upholding Issue 6. A total of five measures, three legislative referrals and two initiatives, remain on the November 8 ballot.

    • Issue 4 would have required the legislature to cap awards for non-economic damages in medical malpractice cases at $250,000. Associate Justice Paul Danielson deemed “non-economic damages” a “‘technical term’ that is not readily understood by voters.” He added, “Without a definition of this term, the voter would be in the position of guessing as to the effect his or her vote would have unless he or she is an expert in the legal field.”
    • Issue 5 would have authorized three casinos in the state. Associate Justice Karen R. Baker, writing the court’s opinion, said Issue 5 would violate the federal Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act prohibiting states from authorizing sports gambling. Further, Baker wrote that the “ballot title does not inform the voters that the Amendment violates federal law.”
    • Issue 6, an initiative designed to legalize medical marijuana, remains on the ballot after the court ruled the ballot title sufficient for aiding voters in making “an intelligent and informed decision.”

Jolt Webinar Series

 

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures update

Tuesday, October 11

Wednesday, October 12

  • The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals refused to hear an appeal filed by Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) to dismiss the felony securities fraud charges against him. Paxton was indicted in 2015 on two counts of first-degree securities fraud and a lesser charge of failing to register with state securities regulators. The charges stem from allegations that Paxton failed to disclose a personal stake in a company for which he facilitated the sale of $100,000 worth of stock. The appeal argued that the charges should be dismissed because the grand jury that indicted him was not properly impaneled and because they were filed after previous appeals to a district appeals court and to a Tarrant County court filed by Paxton's legal team were denied. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had also filed a civil claim of securities fraud against Paxton in April 2016; the civil charges were dismissed in a federal court last week. The trial is expected to take place in the spring of 2017.
  • Wisconsin state Sen. Rick Gudex (R-18) died early Wednesday from an apparent suicide. Fond du Lac County Sheriff Mylan C. Fink Jr. said that Gudex died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. Gudex was elected to the Wisconsin State Senate in 2012. He was not seeking re-election in 2016 and was expected to take a new job in January 2016 with a former employer. Gudex had served as president pro tempore since 2015. He is survived by his wife and two children.
  • Secretary of the Commonwealth William Francis Galvin certified that opponents of a newly-enacted transgender discrimination law collected enough signatures to put the law before voters in November 2018 in Massachusetts. The law, which took effect at the beginning of October, prohibits anti-transgender discrimination in any place with public accommodations. The ballot title for the measure will ask voters whether they approve of the law, meaning a “yes” vote would uphold the law and a “no” vote would overturn it. Thus, a majority of voters must vote “no” for the group behind the referendum to succeed in overturning the law. Galvin verified that 34,231 of the submitted signatures were valid, giving petitioners a cushion of just under 2,000 signatures above the 32,375 required by law. The petition was nearly 10,000 signatures short of the number required to suspend the targeted bill until the election. A lawsuit, however, seeking to suspend and overturn the new discrimination policy was filed by a group of pastors claiming it infringed on freedom of religion and freedom of speech.
    • A separate law prohibiting discrimination against transgender people regarding housing, employment, credit, and college education was passed in 2011 and would be unaffected by this referendum.
    • This veto referendum is the first citizen-initiated measure to qualify for the 2018 ballot in Massachusetts.
  • Federal judge Mark E. Walker ordered Florida election officials to extend the state's voter registration deadline by six days, moving the deadline from October 12 to October 18, in response to Hurricane Matthew; on October 10, Walker had issued an emergency order extending the original deadline by one day, from October 11 to October 12. On October 9, the Democratic Party of Florida filed suit against Gov. Rick Scott (R). In their complaint, Florida Democrats argued that a failure to extend the deadline would constitute a violation of the equal protection clause of the United States Constitution and the Voting Rights Act because those citizens who were required to evacuate had fewer days to register than those who were not displaced by the storm. On October 6, Scott maintained that he would not extend the voter registration deadline. "Everybody has had a lot of time to register. On top of that, we have lots of opportunities to vote: early voting, absentee voting, Election Day. So I don't intend to make any changes."
  • The U.S. Department of Justice will not prosecute an unnamed employee at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for his involvement in the toxic spill at the Gold King Mine in Colorado in August 2015. The spill occurred when EPA personnel and a company under EPA contract triggered the release of more than 3 million gallons of toxic wastewater into the Animas River in Colorado. Over the last year, the EPA’s Office of Inspector General investigated the employee, who may have broken federal water pollution laws and made false statements to law enforcement officials about the spill. The EPA forwarded its findings to the U.S. Attorney for Colorado, who declined to pursue charges against the EPA official. As a result, no one will be criminally prosecuted as a result of the inspector general's investigation, though the office will continue to investigate the incident.
  • During a conference addressing Minnesota’s individual health insurance market, Governor Mark Dayton (D) commented that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is "no longer affordable" for residents. Dayton was a strong proponent of the law during implementation, and according to the Associated Press, he is the “only Democratic governor to publicly suggest the law isn't working as intended.” Insurance premiums in the state’s individual market will rise by between 50 and 67 percent in 2017, and state regulators have characterized the market as being in "a state of emergency." Dayton called on Congress to correct the law’s “deficiencies” and said, "The reality is the Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable for increasing numbers of people.” Rising premiums and fewer health plan choices nationwide have led some to question the sustainability of the ACA’s model of health insurance, while others have argued that they are part of an adjustment period as insurers learn the new individual market.
  • Georgia Attorney General Sam Olens (R) announced that he would resign from his seat in order to assume the position of president at Kennesaw State University. Speculation surrounding Olens' possible appointment to the post had been ongoing for several weeks prior to the announcement. Olens was first elected in 2010; his current term expires in 2019. Governor Nathan Deal (R) announced that he would appoint Director of Economic Development Chris Carr to serve the remainder of Olens’ term; he will assume the seat effective November 1, 2016. "He has a lot of common sense and that’s what any public servant needs," said Deal of the appointment. Georgia is one of 23 Republican trifectas.
  • Ballotpedia held our webinar on ballot measures in the 2016 elections. Missed it? Click here to view on YouTube. For additional information, see our Jolt webinar series.

Thursday, October 13

Friday, October 14

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, October 18

  • Join Ballotpedia's election policy conflicts webinar as our resident expert discusses how election policy disputes are playing out in state legislatures and courts across the country. Ballotpedia has been tracking the laws, court cases, and reform efforts that impact election policy. Register to learn about where these conflicts have been occurring and what the expected impacts will be in November.

Wednesday, October 19

  • Join Ballotpedia's energy and environmental policy conflicts webinar as we discuss the Obama administration's major policy initiatives and the expected impact of the 2016 presidential election on those policies. Our experts will review these policies, update you on the legal challenges, and review how Congressional elections could impact them. Register to learn how the policies have renewed the debate about the role of the federal government in setting energy and environmental policies for the states.

Thursday, October 20

  • Join Ballotpedia's heathcare policy conflicts webinar as our expert reviews the healthcare issue that has risen to prominence during the 2016 election cycle—prescription drug prices. We will also review how at the state level, legislatures are still debating whether and how to expand their Medicaid programs as provided for under Obamacare. Register to learn how the debate over Obamacare has continued through 2016 and has been fueled by a series of co-op failures, major insurer exits, and premium rate increases.

 

State government in session

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the list below have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven Democratic and 23 Republican trifectas. One state—New Jersey—is in regular session; Ohio is in a skeleton (non-voting) session. Massachusetts is in an informal session.

  • Skeleton session: In a typical skeleton session, a clerk, a presiding officer, and another legislative member are the only people present. The presiding officer will convene the session day and adjourn it minutes later. Lawmakers who live more than 50 miles from the statehouse can deduct lodging and meal expenses on their federal income tax forms for each day the legislature is in skeleton or regular session.
  • Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.

Three states are in recess:

  • PA until 10/17
  • MI until 10/18
  • CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

  • AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

  • MT, ND, NV, TX

State government special elections

As of this week, 47 seats have been filled through legislative special elections in 2016. Nine involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), three from Democratic to Republican (Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85). Another 13 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in nine states. An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Local

The Week in Review

2016 elections

  • In 2016, Ballotpedia is covering municipal elections across 12 of America’s largest counties by population, 46 of America's 100 largest cities by population, local judicial elections across all 39 states holding elections, school board elections across 643 of America's 1,000 largest school districts by student enrollment, all local ballot measures in California, and notable measures across the United States.
    • So far this year, Ballotpedia has covered 27 city elections, 28 states with local judicial elections, 306 school board elections, and 162 local ballot measures in California. Ballotpedia will be covering all of the approximately 550 local California measures on the ballot in November.
  • Most elections, including local elections, are held during spring and fall months. Summer and winter months contain relatively few elections and filing deadlines.

Saturday, October 8

  • The Midland Independent School District (MISD) in Texas held a special tax ratification election, where voters defeated a proposed tax increase with 63 percent of the vote. The MISD board of trustees unanimously adopted an increased tax rate for the 2016-2017 school year in August 2016. Under Texas state law, the board needed to get voter approval to pass a property tax rate above $1.04 per $100 of property valuation. The board proposed a rate of $1.09 per $100 of property valuation, which would increase the property taxes on a home valued at $200,000 by $60 per year. As a result, the board ordered the special election. In the spring of 2016, the MISD learned it would be required to pay $51 million to the state under the Texas Robin Hood law, which is a $4 million increase over the previous year's payment. The Robin Hood law obligates property-rich districts like Midland to send money to the state for redistribution to poorer districts. The payment increase came after a fall in commodity prices led to an unexpected revenue decline in the Midland area, which is dominated by the oil and natural gas industries. Consequently, the MISD estimated a $25 million deficit for the 2016-2017 school year. The Midland Independent School District is the 53rd-largest school district in the state. It served 23,560 students during the 2013-2014 school year—roughly 0.5 percent of all Texas public school students.

Sunday, October 9

  • Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R) said he would vote for Hillary Clinton (D) and called for Donald Trump (R) to drop out of the race. Gimenez, who is running for re-election this year, was criticized during his primary campaign for his ties to Trump. The mayor played golf with Trump in 2014 to discuss the nominee taking over a country club, and Gimenez’s son has done lobbying work for a local resort owned by Trump. “I’m not going to endorse anybody. But between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, I’m not voting for Donald Trump. Obviously, I must be voting for Hillary Clinton,” Gimenez said on a Sunday morning talk show at WFOR. Gimenez faces Raquel Regalado (R) in the general election on November 8. Miami-Dade County is one of 17 counties covered by Ballotpedia.

Tuesday, October 11

  • The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) reached a contract agreement with Chicago Public Schools (CPS) to prevent a strike planned to begin the same day. The union had authorized the decision to strike on September 28, 2016. The agreement came after more than 12 hours of negotiation between school board members and union leaders.
    • The turmoil between CPS and the CTU has been ongoing: On August 24, 2016, the CPS school board unanimously approved a $5.4 billion operating budget for 2016-2017. The budget included $30 million in concessions from the CTU. In response, Chicago teachers marched in front of CPS headquarters. The budget was first proposed in early August and included increased property taxes and personnel cuts. It also offered gradual pay increases for teachers and phased out district payments into CTU pension and insurance funds. The inclusion of $945 million in borrowing for unspecified construction projects received backlash from CTU leaders after 1,000 teachers, aides, and support staff were laid off earlier in the month due to district budget shortfalls.
  • Former Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon (D) filed as a write-in candidate for mayor for the general election. Dixon was defeated by Catherine Pugh in the April 26 primary but cited issues with how ballots were handled in the primary during a press conference announcing her write-in bid. A state audit of the primary results found 1,650 ballots were mishandled by the city in Pugh's 2,408-vote victory over Dixon. Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake (D) is not running for re-election. Baltimore is the 23rd-largest city by population in the United States and the largest in Maryland.
  • The city council of Washington, D.C., voted to advance a package of anti-tobacco bills, including one that would raise the minimum age to buy cigarettes in the city to 21 years old. Additional pieces of legislation would ban vaping in public places and prevent the use of tobacco at sporting events. The nation’s capital would not be the first major city to raise the minimum age for cigarettes above the federal one; Boston, Chicago, and New York City already have similar laws on the books. Before becoming law, the bills would need to be approved a second time by the city council and then signed by Mayor Muriel Bowser (D). Washington, D.C., is the 26th-largest city by population in the United States.
  • The U.S. Attorney's Office announced that it would file contempt of court charges against Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R). Arpaio is up for election this year and faces Democratic challenger Paul Penzone in the general election. The contempt charge stems from a May 2016 ruling where U.S. District Judge G. Murray Snow found that Arpaio and three others failed to follow Snow’s orders to reduce racial profiling within the sheriff’s department. Arpaio has raised over $12 million for his re-election campaign, which is $4 million more than Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R) raised in 2014. Maricopa County is one of 17 counties covered by Ballotpedia.

Wednesday, October 12

  • Two Klamath County Irrigation District board members faced a recall election. Brent Cheyne was recalled, while Ken Smith was retained. An effort to recall Cheyne, Smith, and Grant Knoll from their positions was launched earlier in 2016. Petitions were filed against the three officials on July 25, 2016, by Ed Bair, Jason Chapman, and Ross Fleming, all of whom previously served on the board. Supporters cited high fees paid to out-of-town attorneys, the departure of several district employees, and the board’s failure to conduct business in a public forum in accordance with public meeting laws as reasons for the recall. In September 2016, the recall petitions for Cheyne and Smith were certified for the ballot. On September 27, 2016, the recall petition for Knoll was certified. His recall election is tentatively scheduled for November 7, 2016.
  • A recall petition against San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee (D) was approved by city election officials. The recall effort includes 11 arguments for Lee's removal, including the city's handling of the homeless population and police shootings of civilians. Lee was first appointed in January 2011 and won re-election in 2015 with a 40-percent margin of victory. In order to schedule a recall election, recall organizers will need to submit 47,000 valid signatures from city voters by March 18, 2017. San Francisco is the 14th-largest city by population in the United States, and the fourth-largest in California.
  • The Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction published a letter stating that no schools in Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) qualified for takeover by a county-appointed commissioner in 2016-2017. A 2015 state law requires the county to appoint a commissioner to turn up to five failing MPS schools per year over to charter or voucher school operators for improvement. This law uses the state's annual report card for schools to determine if a school is failing. The school district served 78,516 students during the 2013-2014 school year, which is nine percent of all public school students in the state.
  • Seattle Councilwoman Sally Bagshaw offered an amendment to the city’s homeless encampment legislation to make public parks and sidewalks “unsuitable” for homeless camps. Bagshaw said, however, that individuals would not be removed from “unsuitable” spaces without offering them an improved place to go, like a shelter. Councilman Tim Burgess said that the unamended version of the homeless legislation “would essentially create a right to camp in the city, and as long as you keep moving you can camp in the city forever.” Seattle is the 21st-largest city by population in the United States, and the largest in Washington.
    • In May 2016, Murray announced that he was working with Gov. Jay Inslee (D) to eliminate homeless encampments known as “The Jungle” from the city. The plan involves outreach workers visiting the encampments for multiple weeks to help relocate homeless citizens into shelters, followed by construction efforts by city and state departments to clean the area of debris and vegetation. The American Civil Liberties Union has threatened a lawsuit against the city in response to these plans.

Thursday, October 13

  • The Texas Fourth District Court of Appeals ordered San Antonio’s fire union to select a mediator and begin negotiations with the city on a new contract. The order comes after the city filed suit against its police and fire unions in 2014 over evergreen language in a 2009 contract. The contracts were only valid for five years, but contained language to continue for up to ten more years with the same provisions if no new agreement was reached. The city argued that “a perpetual contract is unconstitutional and infringes on City Council’s fiscal responsibility to provide city services to the taxpayers.” The court order requires the union to select a mediator within a week, and if they fail to do so, the court will appoint one for them. Mediation on a new deal must begin within the next 60 days. San Antonio is the seventh-largest city by population in the United States, and the second-largest in Texas.

 


 

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Fact Check

Fact Check by Ballotpedia

  • Fact check: Is Donald Trump right that the debt has doubled under President Barack Obama? America’s $14 trillion public debt was mentioned several times during the first debate between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In one instance, Trump claimed that the Obama Administration has “doubled [the debt] in a course of almost eight years.” Is that claim accurate? The public debt has doubled (in dollar terms) during President Obama’s tenure, but Congress shares responsibility with the White House for the increase.
  • Fact check: Did Sen. Kelly Ayotte vote six times to defund Planned Parenthood? In a recent ad, Gov. Maggie Hassan, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, claimed that incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte has voted six times to defund Planned Parenthood. We reviewed the record, and only two of the six votes cited in Hassan’s ad were to pass bills that would have, if enacted, cut off federal funds to Planned Parenthood.

 

Read the latest fact checks.


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Ballotpedia wants to keep you in the know. In this weekly newsletter, we let you know the important things that happened last week in the federal, state and local levels of government, as well as what you should look for this week. The Tap covers election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events—everything you need to stay up-to-date on American politics. A summary of the in-depth, nonpartisan content that is added to Ballotpedia every week is now available in this digestible format for free to anyone who wants to be informed.

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