What to look for on Super Tuesday III
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
March 14, 2016
At a potentially pivotal juncture in the 2016 race for the White House presidential, Democratic and Republican voters in five states—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio—will cast ballots on March 15 in one of the biggest primary days of the year.
What’s at stake? Republicans have 367 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday III: This is 29.7 percent of the 1,237 GOP delegates needed to win the nomination. It represents 14.8 percent of all 2,472 Republican national convention delegates. By the end of the March 15 round of primaries, 59.1 percent of all 2,472 GOP delegates will have been allocated.
Democrats have 691 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday III: This is 29.0 percent of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination. It represents 14.5 percent of all 4,765 Democratic national convention delegates (including Super delegates), and 17.1 percent of all the 4,038 pledged delegates that are allocated by the primaries and caucuses. By the end of this round, 49.9 percent of all the pledged Democratic delegates will have been allocated.
For Vermont Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders, he is looking to prove that his upset victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the March 8 Michigan primary was not a fluke. If Sanders can post a win in Ohio, Illinois or Missouri, he can make the case that the Democratic contest should continue to other states where he thinks his candidacy has more appeal. Clinton is likely to prevail in Florida and North Carolina: So far she’s won every southern primary by wide margins (Sanders won border state Oklahoma’s primary on March 1).
The Sunshine State is the biggest Democratic delegate prize on March 15, and its older population of retirees is likely to help Clinton who has dominated the 65-and-over vote. On the Republican side, its primary also allocates the most delegates on Tuesday and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is fighting for his life to win his home state and remain in the GOP race. Billionaire developer and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has led in all the pre-primary polls this year. Rubio is a rare Republican with strength in Florida’s Gold Coast of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. He’s popular with Cuban-American voters in Miami and his steadfast support of Israel plays well among Jewish retirees in Broward and Palm Beach.
Most of the polls in Florida will close at 7 PM EST, but nine counties in the western Panhandle portion of the state close at 8 PM EST. That means a number real returns for the candidates can be analyzed before the earliest possible call in Florida at 8 PM (the television networks won’t project an outcome in a state until all of its polls are closed). Given the botched Florida call that the networks all made in the 2000 general election, they won’t rush to make a call on Tuesday night unless the returns they’ve analyzed from the 7 PM poll closing counties are decisive for Trump or Clinton. Florida is also tricky because of the large number of absentee and early votes cast in the state. In 2012, almost 44 percent of the Republican presidential primary vote was cast early or absentee. It’s likely that around the same percentage of the vote in both party’s primaries this year will be cast early/absentee.
The other big primary in the Republican race is Ohio, which GOP Gov. John Kasich has said he must win in order to keep his candidacy alive. Recent polls indicate that Kasich has a legitimate shot to defeat Trump, but it could well be a close race either way. The Ohio polls close at 7:30 PM EST (along with North Carolina’s), but the vote in the Buckeye State sometimes takes a while to tabulate so an early call here for either party’s contest is unlikely.
Here are the poll closing times for all five primaries:
All times EST
North Carolina 7:30 PM
Ohio 7:30 PM
Florida 8:00 PM
Illinois 8:00 PM
Missouri 8:00 PM
Who can participate? There is no party registration in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Any registered voter in these states can vote in either the Democratic or Republican presidential primaries. There is party registration in Florida and North Carolina. Only registered Republican voters can vote in the Republican presidential primary in Florida and only registered Democratic voters can vote in the Democratic presidential primary in Florida. Registered Republican and Independent voters can cast ballots in the GOP North Carolina presidential primary. Likewise, registered Democrats and Independents can vote in the Democratic presidential primary in North Carolina. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 before the November 8, 2016 election can vote in the North Carolina and Ohio primaries.
Registered voters by state:
| State | Total | Democratic | Republican | Independent/Other |
| Florida | 12,060,748 | 4,569,788 | 4,276,104 | 3,214,856 |
| North Carolina | 6,429,189 | 2,632,201 | 1,958,502 | 1,838,486 |
| Illinois | 7,643,861 | |||
| Missouri | 4,081,259 | |||
| Ohio | 5,925,294 |
States with no party registration on March 15 are probably going to be better for Sanders, especially since they are outside the South where Clinton has done so well. Trump has also tended to do a bit better in states without party registration, but that’s not likely to be a critical factor in the GOP outcomes on Tuesday.
Past Democratic Presidential Primary Turnout:
| Year | Florida | Illinois | Missouri | North Carolina | Ohio |
| 2012 | -- | 652,583 | 72,888 | 966,887 | 542,086 |
| 2008 | 1,749,920 | 2,038,614 | 825,050 | 1,580,726 | 2,354,721 |
| 2004 | 753,762 | 1,217,515 | 418,339 | -- | 1,221,026 |
| 2000 | 551,995 | 809,667 | 265,489 | 544,922 | 978,512 |
| 1996 | -- | 800,676 | -- | 572,160 | 766,530 |
| 1992 | 1,123,857 | 1,504,130 | -- | 691,875 | 1,042,335 |
| 1988 | 1,273,298 | 1,500,930 | 527,805 | 679,958 | 1,383,572 |
| 1984 | 1,182,190 | 1,659,425 | -- | 960,857 | 1,447,236 |
| 1980 | 1,098,003 | 1,201,067 | -- | 737,262 | 1,786,410 |
Past Republican Presidential Primary Turnout:
| Year | Florida | Illinois | Missouri | North Carolina | Ohio |
| 2012 | 1,672,679 | 933,451 | 252,185 | 973,206 | 1,213,879 |
| 2008 | 1,949,498 | 899,422 | 588,844 | 517,583 | 1,059,137 |
| 2004 | -- | 583,575 | 123,086 | -- | 793,833 |
| 2000 | 699,503 | 736,921 | 475,363 | 322,517 | 1,397,528 |
| 1996 | 898,516 | 818,364 | -- | 284,212 | 963,422 |
| 1992 | 893,463 | 831,140 | -- | 283,571 | 860,453 |
| 1988 | 901,222 | 858,637 | 400,300 | 273,801 | 794,904 |
| 1984 | 344,150 | 595,078 | -- | -- | 658,169 |
| 1980 | 614,995 | 1,130,081 | -- | 168,391 | 856,773 |
Here are state websites to follow the primary voting:
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Miami CNN Republican Debate (March 10, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
