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Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Florida Congressional Seats

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October 30, 2012

By Ballotpedia's Congressional team

Florida's Congressional Elections in 2012
U.S. Senate Election? U.S. House seats Possible competitive races?
Yes 27 8

TALLAHASSEE: Florida: Florida has one U.S. Senate seat and 27 U.S. House seats on the ballot in 2012. Florida gained two districts due to the redistricting following the 2010 census. Twenty-four of 25 house incumbents are seeking re-election, and 22 of those face at least one challenger in the general election (91.67%).

Currently, the Republican Party holds 19 of the 25 Congressional seats from Florida. According to the website RealClearPolitics, Florida's 18th Congressional District is the 28th most likely district in the nation to flip in 2012. Florida's 22nd Congressional District ranks 7th and Florida's 26th Congressional District ranks 48th on that list. If any of those districts do flip, it will be from Republican to Democratic control.[1]

In Florida, all polls are open from 7AM to 7 PM.[2] Florida is split between Eastern and Central time zones.

See also: State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2012)

U.S. Senate

Florida has one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in 2012. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as Leaning Democratic, and the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson leading Republican challenger Connie Mack by 1%. Mack, a current member of the U.S. House, is looking to capture the seat which could ultimately prove pivotal in determining partisan control of the Senate.

State General Election Candidates Incumbent 2012 Winner Partisan Switch?
Florida Class 1 Senate seat Democratic Party Bill Nelson
Republican Party Connie Mack
Grey.png Bill Gaylor
Grey.png Chris Borgia
Grey.png Robert Monroe
Grey.png Lawrence Sidney Scott
Grey.png Piotr Blass
Grey.png Naomi Craine
Grey.png Lionel Long		 Bill Nelson Pending Pending

U.S. House

This is the first election that will be using new redistricting maps. Most notably, these maps were influenced by Amendment 6, passed by voters in 2010 which aimed to establish fairer districts. Current congressional members Corrine Brown (D) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R) sued the state over the amendments, but the amendments were upheld by the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals.

Seven of Florida's 27 districts are considered to be competitive in 2012 according to the New York Times race ratings. Those are the 2nd, 9th, 10th, 16th, 18th, 22nd, and 26th districts.[3]

Florida's 2nd Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Republican. Republican incumbent Steve Southerland II faces a challenge from Democrat Alfred Lawson in the general election. Florida's 2nd has also been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.

Florida's 9th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Democratic. Former representative Alan Grayson faces Republican Todd Long in the general election in an open seat battle that is expected to favor Democrats.

Florida's 10th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Republican. Incumbent Daniel Webster (R) faces a challenge from Democrat Val Demings in the general election. Florida's 10th is also included in the DCCC's "Red to Blue List."

Florida's 16th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Republican. Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan faces challenger Keith Fitzgerald (D) in the general election.

Florida's 18th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Republican in 2012. Incumbent Allen West is challenged by Patrick Murphy in a tight race. According to the last Frederick Poll, Murphy and West were tied at 47%.

Florida's 22nd Congressional District is a Leaning Democratic district in 2012. Democrat Lois Frankel squares off with Adam Hasner (R) in this open seat battle.

Florida's 26th Congressional District is a Republican Leaning district. Republican incumbent David Rivera is challenged by Joe Garcia (D) in the general election. Florida's 26th has also been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List."

Here is a complete list of U.S. House candidates appearing on the general election ballot in Florida:

Candidates running by District

District General Election Candidates Incumbent 2012 Winner Partisan Switch?
1st Democratic Party James Bryan
Republican Party Jeff Miller
Libertarian Party Calen Fretts
Grey.png William Drummond II (write-in)		 Jeff Miller Pending Pending
2nd Democratic Party Alfred Lawson
Republican Party Steve Southerland II
Grey.png Floyd Patrick Miller		 Steve Southerland II Pending Pending
3rd Democratic Party Jacques Rene Gaillot, Jr.
Republican Party Ted Yoho
Grey.png Philip Dodds
Grey.png Michael Ricks		 Corrine Brown Pending Pending
4th Republican Party Ander Crenshaw
Grey.png Gary Koniz
Grey.png James Klauder		 Ander Crenshaw Pending Pending
5th Democratic Party Corrine Brown
Republican Party LeAnne Kolb
Grey.png Eileen Fleming
Grey.png Bruce Ray Riggs		 Richard B. Nugent Pending Pending
6th Democratic Party Heather Beaven
Republican Party Ron DeSantis		 Cliff Stearns Pending Pending
7th Democratic Party Jason Kendall
Republican PartyJohn L. Mica
Grey.png Fred Marra		 John L. Mica Pending Pending
8th Democratic Party Shannon Roberts
Republican Party Bill Posey
Grey.png Richard Gillmor		 Daniel Webster Pending Pending
9th Democratic Party Alan Grayson
Republican Party Todd Long		 Gus M. Bilirakis Pending Pending
10th Democratic Party Val Demings
Republican Party Daniel Webster
Grey.png Naipaul Seegolam		 C.W. Bill Young Pending Pending
11th Democratic Party David Werder
Republican Party Richard B. Nugent		 Kathy Castor Pending Pending
12th Democratic Party Jonathan Michael Snow
Republican Party Gus Bilirakis
Grey.png Paul Sidney Elliott
Grey.png John Russell		 Dennis A. Ross Pending Pending
13th Democratic Party Jessica Ehrlich
Republican Party C.W. Bill Young		 Vern Buchanan Pending Pending
14th Democratic Party Kathy Castor
Republican Party Evelio Otero Jr.		 Connie Mack Pending Pending
15th Republican Party Dennis A. Ross Bill Posey Pending Pending
16th Democratic Party Keith Fitzgerald
Republican Party Vern Buchanan		 Thomas J. Rooney Pending Pending
17th Democratic Party William Bronson
Republican Party Thomas J. Rooney
Grey.png Tom Baumann (write-in)		 Frederica S. Wilson Pending Pending
18th Democratic Party Patrick Murphy
Democratic Party Marilyn Davis Holloman (write-in)
Republican Party Allen West		 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Pending Pending
19th Democratic Party Jim Roach
Republican Party Trey Radel
Grey.png Brandon Smith		 Theodore E. Deutch Pending Pending
20th Democratic Party Alcee L. Hastings
Grey.png Randall Terry
Grey.png Anthony Dutrow		 Debbie Wasserman Schultz Pending Pending
21st Democratic Party Theodore E. Deutch
Grey.png Cesear Henao
Grey.png W. Michael Trout		 Mario Diaz-Balart Pending Pending
22nd Democratic Party Lois Frankel
Republican Party Adam Hasner		 Allen B. West Pending Pending
23rd Democratic Party Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Republican Party Karen Harrington
Grey.png Ilya Katz		 Alcee L. Hastings Pending Pending
24th Democratic Party Frederica S. Wilson Sandy Adams Pending Pending
25th Republican PartyMario Diaz-Balart
Grey.png VoteforEddie.Com
Grey.png Stanley Blumenthal		 David Rivera Pending Pending
26th Democratic Party Joe Garcia
Republican Party David Rivera
Grey.png Angel Fernandez
Grey.png Jose Peixoto		 N/A Pending Pending
27th Democratic Party Manny Yevancey
Republican PartyIleana Ros-Lehtinen
Grey.png Thomas Joe Cruz-Wiggins		 N/A Pending Pending

Partisan breakdown by district

Members of the U.S. House from Florida -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 6 10
     Republican Party 19 17
Total 25 27

Comparison of new and old redistricting maps

 Congressional Redistricting Map, approved February 2012 

For more information, view Redistricting in Florida.

  • This is the approved congressional map using the 2010 Census.

    This is the approved congressional map using the 2010 Census.

  • This is the approved congressional map using the 2000 Census.

    This is the approved congressional map using the 2000 Census.

Articles

See also

Florida

Footnotes

  1. ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Election 2012: Senate, House & Governor Races," accessed October 5, 2012
  2. ↑ Florida Secretary of State, "What Times"
  3. ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed July 25, 2012
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