Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

Texas' 10th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Revision as of 18:17, 18 February 2022 by Cory Eucalitto (contribs) (Text replacement - "{{DAPR hub page promo 2}}" to "")
(diff) ← Older revision | Latest revision (diff) | Newer revision → (diff)
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
Texas' 10th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Democratic primary runoff
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Michael McCaul (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 10th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th
Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Michael McCaul won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 10.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael McCaul, who was first elected in 2004. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.


McCaul ran unopposed in the Republican primary. Siegel and Pritesh Gandhi advanced from the Democratic primary to a runoff which Siegel won with 54.2% of the vote to Gandhi's 45.8%.

McCaul was first elected in 2004. In 2018, he was re-elected with 51.1% of the vote to Siegel's 46.8%.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) named McCaul as a member of its 2020 Patriot Program in April 2019. Program Chairman John Katko (R-N.Y.) said, "Our initial Patriot Program Members are among the most accomplished and effective members in the Republican conference. ... While Democrats continue to call them ‘targets,’ the NRCC will be empowering these members to stay on offense and run aggressive, organized campaigns against their Democratic challengers."[1]

A July 2020 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) press release stated, "[Siegel's] narrow loss in this seat in 2018 was one of the closest races in Texas last cycle and in 2020, with a stronger campaign infrastructure and national attention, he’ll finish the job."[2]

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were nine percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016. As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Texas' 10th Congressional District was located in the eastern portion of the state and included all of Austin, Colorado, Fayette, Waller, and Washington counties. Areas of Bastrop, Harris, Lee, and Travis counties were also within the district.[3]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 10th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 48.4 45.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 50 52.5
Difference 1.6 7.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 10

Incumbent Michael McCaul defeated Mike Siegel and Roy Eriksen in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 10 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael McCaul
Michael McCaul (R)
 
52.5
 
217,216
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel (D)
 
45.3
 
187,686
Image of Roy Eriksen
Roy Eriksen (L)
 
2.2
 
8,992

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 413,894
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 10

Mike Siegel defeated Pritesh Gandhi in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 10 on July 14, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel
 
54.2
 
26,799
Image of Pritesh Gandhi
Pritesh Gandhi
 
45.8
 
22,629

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,428
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 10

Mike Siegel and Pritesh Gandhi advanced to a runoff. They defeated Shannon Hutcheson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 10 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel
 
44.0
 
35,651
✔
Image of Pritesh Gandhi
Pritesh Gandhi
 
33.1
 
26,818
Image of Shannon Hutcheson
Shannon Hutcheson
 
22.9
 
18,578

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 81,047
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 10

Incumbent Michael McCaul advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 10 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael McCaul
Michael McCaul
 
100.0
 
60,323

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 60,323
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 10

Roy Eriksen advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 10 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Roy Eriksen
Roy Eriksen (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Runoff elections in Texas

In Texas, a primary election candidate for congressional, state, or county office must receive a majority of the vote (more than 50%) to be declared the winner. If no candidate wins the requisite majority, a runoff election is held between the top two vote-getters.[4]

As of 2020, the Texas Secretary of State office stated, "There is no requirement to have previously voted in the general primary election in order to participate in the subsequent primary runoff election. Therefore, if a qualified voter did not vote in the general primary election, they are still eligible to vote in the primary runoff election." The office also stated that "if a voter votes in the primary of one party, they will only be able to vote in that party’s primary runoff election. ... After being affiliated with a party, a voter is not able to change or cancel their party affiliation until the end of the calendar year."[5]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 10th Congressional District the 145th most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[9]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michael McCaul Republican Party $3,873,478 $3,927,931 $7,734 As of December 31, 2020
Mike Siegel Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Roy Eriksen Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Texas' 10th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportToss-upLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 10th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 10th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 10th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 10th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 10

Incumbent Michael McCaul defeated Mike Siegel and Mike Ryan in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael McCaul
Michael McCaul (R)
 
51.1
 
157,166
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel (D) Candidate Connection
 
46.8
 
144,034
Image of Mike Ryan
Mike Ryan (L)
 
2.2
 
6,627

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 307,827
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary runoff election

Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 10

Mike Siegel defeated Tawana W. Cadien in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 10 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel Candidate Connection
 
70.2
 
12,181
Image of Tawana W. Cadien
Tawana W. Cadien
 
29.8
 
5,164

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 17,345
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 10

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 10 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Siegel
Mike Siegel Candidate Connection
 
40.0
 
15,434
✔
Image of Tawana W. Cadien
Tawana W. Cadien
 
18.0
 
6,938
Image of Tami Walker
Tami Walker
 
15.6
 
6,015
Image of Madeline Eden
Madeline Eden
 
14.3
 
5,514
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Matt Harris
 
7.3
 
2,825
Image of Kevin Nelson
Kevin Nelson
 
4.1
 
1,589
Image of Richie DeGrow
Richie DeGrow
 
0.8
 
302

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 38,617
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 10

Incumbent Michael McCaul defeated John Cook in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 10 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael McCaul
Michael McCaul
 
80.1
 
41,881
Image of John Cook
John Cook
 
19.9
 
10,413

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 52,294
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Michael McCaul (R) defeated Tawana Cadien (D) and Bill Kelsey (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. McCaul ran unopposed in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016, while Tawana Cadien defeated Scot Gallaher for the Democratic nomination.[14][15]

U.S. House, Texas District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMichael McCaul Incumbent 57.3% 179,221
     Democratic Tawana Cadien 38.4% 120,170
     Libertarian Bill Kelsey 4.2% 13,209
Total Votes 312,600
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 10 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTawana Cadien 51.9% 22,660
Scot Gallaher 48.1% 20,961
Total Votes 43,621
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Michael McCaul (R) defeated Tawana Walter-Cadien (D) and Bill Kelsey (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMichael McCaul Incumbent 62.2% 109,726
     Democratic Tawana Walter-Cadien 34.1% 60,243
     Libertarian Bill Kelsey 3.7% 6,491
Total Votes 176,460
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces First Round of Patriot Program Members," April 19, 2019
  2. ↑ DCCC, "UPDATE: The Case Against Congressman Mike McCaul," July 15, 2020
  3. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  4. ↑ Texas Legislature, "Chapter 172. Primary Elections," accessed July 10, 2020
  5. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "Election Advisory No. 2020-05," February 11, 2020
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • American Samoa • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Guam • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Northern Mariana Islands • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Puerto Rico • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • U.S. Virgin Islands • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Texas%27_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8721538"