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Florida's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (August 18 Republican primary)

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Florida's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2020
Primary: August 18, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ted Yoho (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Florida's 3rd Congressional District
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Florida elections, 2020
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U.S. House elections, 2020

Kat Cammack defeated Judson Sapp, Gavin Rollins, James St. George, and six others in the August 18, 2020, Republican Party primary in Florida's 3rd Congressional District. Cammack received 25% of the vote followed by Sapp, Rollins, and St. George with 20%, 15%, and 14%, respectively. No other candidate received over 10% of the vote.[1][2] Incumbent Rep. Ted Yoho (R) did not run for re-election, leaving the seat open.

Three candidates—Cammack, Sapp, and St. George—led in noteworthy primary endorsements and fundraising.

Cammack received endorsements from two Tea Party organizations and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who said, "We need to send strong conservatives like ... Cammack to Washington who have the courage to take on career politicians and drain the swamp."[3] Three members of Florida's congressional delegation endorsed Sapp including U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Gaetz said Sapp "has been right there with us making America great, fighting for the America First agenda."[4] U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) endorsed St. George, saying, "As a fellow physician, [St. George] understand the need to repeal ObamaCare and replace it with a free market solution."[5]

According to pre-primary campaign finance reports, Cammack, a former deputy chief of staff to Yoho, raised $490,000. Sapp, a railroad contractor, reported $770,000, and St. George, a surgeon, led in fundraising with $920,000 raised.

Ryan Chamberlin, Todd Chase, Bill Engelbrecht, Joe Dallas Millado, Amy Pope Wells, Gavin Rollins, and David Theus also ran in the primary.

First elected in 2012, Yoho represented District 3 since district lines were redrawn following the 2010 census, receiving over 55% of the vote in each election. In 2016, District 3 voters supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D). Trump received 56% of the vote in the district to Clinton's 40%.

Nine candidates completed Candidate Connection surveys ahead of the primary. Click here to read their responses.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Cammack
Sapp
St. George


This page focuses on Florida's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Florida modified its candidate filing procedures as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: Candidates allowed to submit qualifying documents, including signed petitions, electronically.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kat Cammack
Kat Cammack Candidate Connection
 
25.2
 
21,679
Image of Judson Sapp
Judson Sapp Candidate Connection
 
20.0
 
17,180
Image of Gavin Rollins
Gavin Rollins Candidate Connection
 
15.3
 
13,118
Image of James St. George
James St. George Candidate Connection
 
14.1
 
12,125
Image of Todd Chase
Todd Chase Candidate Connection
 
9.5
 
8,165
Image of Ryan Chamberlin
Ryan Chamberlin Candidate Connection
 
5.9
 
5,067
Image of Amy Pope Wells
Amy Pope Wells
 
4.1
 
3,564
Image of Bill Engelbrecht
Bill Engelbrecht Candidate Connection
 
2.3
 
2,001
Image of David Theus
David Theus Candidate Connection
 
2.2
 
1,874
Image of Joe Dallas Millado
Joe Dallas Millado Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
1,168

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 85,941
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[6] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Kat Cammack

Image of Kat Cammack

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I'm a small business owner, a proud wife to a first responder, an alumnus of the United States Naval War College, and the former Deputy Chief of Staff to Rep. Ted Yoho. Over the past decade, I've had the opportunity to meet many great community leaders, small business owners, veterans, and farmers in FL-03. Working on behalf of Rep. Yoho, we were able to bring much-needed improvements to FL-03. We worked to support President Trump in his efforts to cut taxes, protect the sanctity of life, reduce spending, remove regulations, defend the Second Amendment, ensure quality medical care for our veterans, and secure our southern border. I too am proud to stand with President Trump and the work he has done on behalf of the American people. It is vital that us Floridians send a representative to Washington to advocate for an America First agenda. We are building a grassroots movement to send a new voice to Washington - the voice of a young, constitutional conservative woman who is energized by the values and people of this district. Join with me and help send a fresh voice and new perspective to our Nation's Capitol."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Fighting illegal immigration: Be assured that on day one, as your Representative, I will work with the Trump Administration to help build the wall and secure the border. You can also be certain that I will never support amnesty of any kind for those who illegally enter our country. We are a nation of laws and those laws must be enforced. The failures to stop unauthorized crossings over the past several decades have led to serious national security threats and an influx of individuals who have illegally entered our county. It has to will be your voice on Capitol Hill to fight for a physical barrier, new technologies, and increased personnel to accomplish the goal of keeping our country safe and stemming the flow of illegal immigration.

Protecting the Second Amendment: I will always uphold and defend our Second Amendment Rights. As a concealed carry permit holder and wife to a first responder, I am adamant about protecting this most basic American right. As a board member for the Alachua County Friends of NRA, I have put my beliefs into action by working to defend our right to keep and bear arms. When I worked as Representative Ted Yoho's former Deputy Chief of Staff, I was proud to fight to protect our gun rights on Capitol Hill. You can be certain that when elected to Congress, I will continue Representative Yoho's advocacy against any attempt by the Left to take those rights away.

Defending the unborn: I am pro-life and I will fight to protect the unborn at all costs. Life begins at conception and I will never waver in my advocacy on this incredibly important issue. As a young, pro-life woman, I will have a unique opportunity to advocate for the unborn on Capitol Hill in a way that will speak directly to younger voters. If elected, I look forward to being a vocal supporter of the pro-life movement both in Florida and on Capitol Hill.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Ryan Chamberlin

Image of Ryan Chamberlin

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Ryan Chamberlin is an Author, Speaker, and Consultant based in Marion County, Florida, but serving businesses and CEO's nationwide. For the past 20 years, he has worked with thousands of entrepreneurs, assisting them in growing their influence and profitability through focused strategies of leadership, improved productivity and by revolutionizing their marketing strategies and corporate cultures. Ryan has worked with Success Magazine, speaks regularly at national conferences, and was featured recently at the Marion County TEDX Ocala as a guest speaker. In 2010, Ryan authored his first book titled Now You Know, a book to help entrepreneurs build better teams through common sense principles that focus on growth. He authored an entrepreneur's story, The Mentor, with Frank Viscuso, best selling author and former New Jersey Fire Chief. In addition, Ryan had the privilege of writing a book with the late relationship expert Gary Smalley titled The Rich You Formula, and recently co-wrote a book with Tony Jeary, coach to the world's top CEOs. The Rich You Formula was endorsed by former governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee. Ryan's focus on conservative spiritual and fiscal values and his ability to help organizations become unified and productive are just a few of the reasons Ryan is sought by many companies to help them improve. Ryan has been married to Jenny Chamberlin for 25 years. They have 4 boys and attend Souls Harbor First Pentecostal Church."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Congress is currently Dysfunctional. We need to Replace Career Politicians with a New Results Driven Congress

As Conservatives our Values are under constant attack. We need a congress that will fight and not sit.

The Fact that we have a 22 Trillion $ deficit and not complete border control is nonsense.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Todd Chase

Image of Todd Chase

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • Gainesville City Commission (2011-2017)

Submitted Biography:  "As a P-3 pilot based at Naval Air Station Jacksonville, I flew hundreds of missions out of 19 countries tracking Russian nuclear submarines, monitoring the coast of Libya for terrorist activity, and conducting drug interdiction missions through South and Central America in the protection of our southern border. My 26 years of service spans the final stages of the Cold War through the current War on Terror. I retired as a Commander (0-5) in 2016 and received the Navy Commendation Medal, Joint Meritorious Unit Award, and the National Defense Service Medal. I am a Harvard MBA and Jacksonville University Graduate, and I have played an important role in the growth of North Florida's regional innovation economy as an investor, founder, and executive for more than 20 years. With three children attending Florida Universities, my wife Mary and I understand firsthand the challenges facing hardworking families in Florida and across the country. As the lone conservative on the Gainesville City Commission, I used common-sense solutions and responsible fiscal restraint to fight for taxpayers, limit government overreach and lower skyrocketing utility rates. I am a constitutional conservative who believes less government and more freedom are what make America great."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

We need to put America first! I stand with President Trump to protect our borders and keep America safe. I would fight to fund President Trump's border wall, eliminate sanctuary cities, and support E-Verify. 

Government, all too often, makes it harder for American businesses to thrive. As a small business owner, I know firsthand how government regulations make it difficult to do our jobs. We should keep taxes low so you can keep more of your hard earned money, simplify the tax code, invest in workforce and technical education, and cut red tape to roll back needless regulations that hold businesses back. Now, more than ever, we need leaders in Washington who have the experience and understanding to get the job done.

President Ronald Reagan said, "Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction." I am reminded of that as I see the progressive left continue their assault on our second amendment rights. As your representative, I will be an unwavering supporter of our second amendment. I have US Navy Qualified Weapons training, am a second amendment defender, and an NRA member.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Bill Engelbrecht

Image of Bill Engelbrecht

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Bill is a principled, lifelong conservative businessman with over 30 years of executive healthcare management experience in North Florida."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Bill Engelbrecht is a Conservative Republican who supports President Donald Trump.

Bill Engelbrecht supports the President Emphasis on Job Creation in Congressional District 3.

Bill Engelbrecht is a Fiscal Conservative who will watch over your tax dollars in DC.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Joe Dallas Millado

Image of Joe Dallas Millado

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Joe Dallas Millado is a conservative small business owner, Vice President of a Florida non-profit, staunch Trump supporter, and a Republican candidate for Florida's 3rd Congressional District. He's a proud first generation Filipino-American, a Jacksonville native, and graduate of Florida State University. Joe Dallas attributes his strong family values and work ethic to his late father, Ben Millado, an accomplished civil engineer and pillar in the Filipino-American community, and his heart and passion for service to his mother, Linda Millado, a school teacher and community mentor. Widely recognized for his tenacity and ability to advance conservative policies in Washington regardless of party control, Joe Dallas quickly rose through the ranks in Congress to serve the Sunshine State as a Senior Policy Advisor to two Senior Florida Republicans. Leveraging more than a decade of legislative experience, Joe Dallas is well positioned to serve Florida's 3rd Congressional District - addressing key issues through practical policy solutions instead of cheap talk and politics.  He's running for Congress to inspire and lead a refreshing new era in Washington with "day one" competency and passion. Joe Dallas's community message serves as a "call to action" to get involved and make your voice count."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Putting America's Communities First - Solving critical issues for everyday Americans and their families with practical policy solutions not politics.

Qualified with Proven Experience - Solving any issue not only requires knowing what to fix but having the competency to do so. Draining Washington's "swamp" is no different.

Genuine Representation - Having an "ear" is not the same as having a "voice" in Congress. You and your family deserve deeply engaged representation at all times, not just during an existential crisis.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Gavin Rollins

Image of Gavin Rollins

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • Clay County Commission (Assumed office: 2014)
  • Keystone Heights City Council (2009-2012)

Submitted Biography:  "Gavin Rollins is a veteran of the Global War on Terrorism, a history teacher and conservative county commissioner. Captain Rollins is currently serving as an intelligence officer in the Florida National Guard. He was deployed to the Horn of Africa in 2016/17 for nearly a year and fought terrorism under President Trump in a combat zone. As a history teacher he's worked to empower the next generation with an understanding of the Constitution and the foundations of our Republic. As a county commissioner he's fought for 2nd Amendment rights, term limit politicians, religious freedom, tax saving innovations, public safety and property rights. He has a Bachelors of Science in Agriculture from the University of Florida were he was inducted into the UF Hall of Fame, and a Masters in Education Leadership from the University of West Florida. "

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Conservative Fighter

Support President Trump

Stop Socialism

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

Judson Sapp

Image of Judson Sapp

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Judson Sapp is a native Floridian and conservative businessman. As CEO of W.J. Sapp Railroad Contractor, Judson oversees the operations of the company, which conducts business throughout the Southeastern United States. Judson Sapp lives in Green Cove Springs Florida with his wife Kelly and their two sons, Willard and Ryder."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Lower Taxes

Less Government

More Freedom

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

James St. George

Image of James St. George

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Physician, Businessman, Community Leader, Eagle Scout, Husband, Father, Christian, NRA-rated Marksman, Conservative, Republican... These are just a few of the words to describe Dr. James St. George. For more than a decade, James has served patients at his clinics throughout north Florida and played an active role in the medical community, helping to improve healthcare services throughout our area. Growing up in scouting, James took to heart the Scout Oath "...do my duty to God and my country... help other people at all times..." The desire to help other people is what led him to medical school and a career in medicine. The influence that scouting had on his life is what led him to help others in the scouting community by serving as a scoutmaster, then serving on the Executive Board of Directors for the Boy Scouts of America North Florida Council, and serving a time as District Chairman. While building a successful business, helping his patients, and mentoring young people throughout our community has been rewarding, watching the discourse in Washington has moved James to want to take off his white coat, roll up his sleeves and get to work healing our country. "

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I am a successful small business owner and a surgeon, not a career politican.

We have to protect our country from the radical lefts socialist agenda. Government is best in its limited form. Over-regulation kills everything from our jobs to our spirits. If the liberals in Congress right now had their way, we would be a welfare state where American entrepreneurs have no reason for innovative, bold visions. This hampers our employment, our commerce and our innovation. We must continue to keep taxes low and support our free market economy so that America can continue to be great.

I will support President Trump's conservative agenda and help President Trump reform healthcare.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.

David Theus

Image of David Theus

FacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I am running for Congress to ensure Florida's 3rd Congressional District continues to be represented by a principled - servant leader. A representative who will go to Washington and not forget whom he serves, do the work of all the people in a commonsense approach, and lastly, if the voters will have me, I pledge to serve a term limit for no more than 8 years."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I Believe In Religious Freedom - The freedom to believe and exercise your faith at work, in class, church, synagogue, and mosque without threat of persecution by our government.

I Believe In The Right To Life - Like my children and yours, life begins at conception - protecting the unborn from abortion is paramount.

I Believe In The 2nd Amendment - Our Founders knew firsthand that Tyranny stood ready outside their door - only to steal their Persons, Property, and Liberty at the end of a barrel.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Florida District 3 in 2020.


Noteworthy primary endorsements

This section includes noteworthy endorsements issued in the primary, added as we learn about them. Click here to read how we define noteworthy primary endorsements. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Cammack Pope Wells Sapp St. George
Elected officials
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)[7] ✔
U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.)[8] ✔
U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.)[9] ✔
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)[4] ✔
U.S. Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.)[8] ✔
Individuals
Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk[10] ✔
Political consultant Roger Stone (R)[11] ✔
Organizations
Maverick PAC[8] ✔
Tea Party Express[7] ✔
Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund[7] ✔
VIEW PAC[12] ✔

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Kat Cammack

Supporting Cammack

"Well Regulated" - Cammack campaign ad, released August 5, 2020
"Third-Generation Sandblaster" - Cammack campaign ad, released August 3, 2020
"Lay an Egg" - Cammack campaign ad, released August 3, 2020
"Sovereign" - Cammack campaign ad, released July 31, 2020
"Greatest Threat" - Cammack campaign ad, released July 31, 2020
"That's Why" - Cammack campaign ad, released July 24, 2020


Opposing multiple opponents

"Chicken" - Cammack campaign ad, released July 10, 2020

Ryan Chamberlin

"Ryan Chamberlin for Florida District 3" - Chamberlin campaign ad, released July 16, 2020


A sample ad from the candidate's Facebook page is embedded below. Click here to see the candidate's Facebook Video page.


Todd Chase

"Who's Got Their Back?" - Chase campaign ad, released July 27, 2020


Bill Engelbrecht

Supporting Engelbrecht

"Everyday American" - Engelbrecht campaign ad, released July 13, 2020


Amy Pope Wells

"Southern Values" - Pope Wells campaign ad, released July 29, 2020
"True Conservative" - Pope Wells campaign ad, released July 22, 2020


Gavin Rollins

A sample ad from the candidate's Facebook page is embedded below. Click here to see the candidate's Facebook Video page.


Judson Sapp

"Not On My Watch" - Sapp campaign ad, released July 31, 2020
"Stand" - Sapp campaign ad, released July 8, 2020
"Conservative. Businessman." - Sapp campaign ad, released October 21, 2019


James St. George

"Marksman" - St. George campaign ad, released July 20, 2020


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 3rd Congressional District, 2020: Republican primary election polls
Poll Date Cammack Chamberlin Chase Engelbrecht Millado Pope Wells Rollins Sapp St. George Theus Undecided Margin of error Sample size Sponsor
Meer Research[13] Aug. 6-8, 2020 25% 3% 6% 2% 1% 3% 11% 15% 13% 1% 20% 5.5% 317 N/A

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[14] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[15] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kat Cammack Republican Party $1,136,747 $1,104,894 $31,853 As of December 31, 2020
Ryan Chamberlin Republican Party $173,177 $170,862 $2,315 As of December 31, 2020
Todd Chase Republican Party $401,859 $400,687 $1,173 As of November 23, 2020
Bill Engelbrecht Republican Party $88,741 $85,246 $3,496 As of December 31, 2020
Joe Dallas Millado Republican Party $25,372 $33,034 $-225 As of December 31, 2020
Amy Pope Wells Republican Party $220,517 $218,861 $1,655 As of December 31, 2020
Gavin Rollins Republican Party $186,934 $186,934 $0 As of September 9, 2020
Judson Sapp Republican Party $816,334 $808,343 $8,225 As of December 31, 2020
James St. George Republican Party $1,114,215 $1,112,446 $1,769 As of December 31, 2020
David Theus Republican Party $16,331 $16,331 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Primaries in Florida

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Florida utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[16][17]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What's at stake in the general election?

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[18]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[19][20][21]

Race ratings: Florida's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 3rd Congressional District the 140th most Republican nationally.[22]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[23]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District election history

2018

See also: Florida's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 3

Incumbent Ted Yoho defeated Yvonne Hayes Hinson in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ted Yoho
Ted Yoho (R)
 
57.6
 
176,616
Image of Yvonne Hayes Hinson
Yvonne Hayes Hinson (D)
 
42.4
 
129,880

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 306,496
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 3

Yvonne Hayes Hinson defeated Tom Wells and Dushyant Gosai in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 3 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Yvonne Hayes Hinson
Yvonne Hayes Hinson
 
59.5
 
31,655
Image of Tom Wells
Tom Wells
 
33.2
 
17,663
Image of Dushyant Gosai
Dushyant Gosai Candidate Connection
 
7.3
 
3,883

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 53,201
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 3

Incumbent Ted Yoho defeated Judson Sapp in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 3 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ted Yoho
Ted Yoho
 
76.3
 
54,848
Image of Judson Sapp
Judson Sapp
 
23.7
 
17,068

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 71,916
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2016

See also: Florida's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ted Yoho (R) won re-election. He defeated Kenneth McGurn (D) and Tom Wells (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[26][27]

U.S. House, Florida District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTed Yoho Incumbent 56.6% 193,843
     Democratic Kenneth McGurn 39.8% 136,338
     Independent Tom Wells 3.7% 12,519
Total Votes 342,700
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ted Yoho (R) defeated Marihelen Wheeler (D) and Howard Lawson (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTed Yoho Incumbent 65% 148,691
     Democratic Marihelen Wheeler 32.3% 73,910
     Independent Howard Lawson 2.7% 6,208
Total Votes 228,809
Source: Florida Division of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Politico, "Florida election results," accessed August 18, 2020
  2. ↑ The New York Times, "Live: Florida State Primary Election Results 2020," accessed August 18, 2020
  3. ↑ Florida Politics, "Rand Paul backing Kat Cammack in race for Florida CD 3," April 8, 2020
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Twitter, "Judson Sapp," August 10, 2020
  5. ↑ Florida Politics, "Neal Dunn endorses James St. George for CD 3," June 17, 2020
  6. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Cammack's 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 13, 2020
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Sapp's 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 13, 2020
  9. ↑ WCJB, "Neal Dunn endorses James Saint George as third district member of congress," June 17, 2020
  10. ↑ Twitter, "Judson Sapp," August 6, 2020
  11. ↑ YouTube, "Roger Stone: WHY JUDSON SAPP?" August 7, 2020
  12. ↑ Wells' 2020 campaign website, "Campaign News & Updates," accessed August 13, 2020
  13. ↑ Florida Politics, "Kat Cammack holds double-digit lead in new CD 3 poll," August 10, 2020
  14. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  15. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  16. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 23, 2024
  17. ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "Closed Primary Election," accessed July 23, 2024
  18. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  19. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  20. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  21. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  22. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  23. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  24. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  25. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  26. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  27. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Rick Scott (R)
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Anna Luna (R)
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