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Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 19
- Early voting: Oct. 9 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Central Time and 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Mountain Time
2020 →
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| Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 1, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Don Bacon (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone) Voting in Nebraska |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Inside Elections: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd Nebraska elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Moderates and progressives clashed in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15, where nonprofit executive and Metropolitan Community College board member Kara Eastman defeated the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford.
Ashford, who held the seat for a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which added him to its “Red to Blue” list.[1]
The Congress-tracking site GovTrack ranked Ashford as the second most conservative member of the House Democratic caucus both years he was in office.[2][3]
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee backed Eastman. She also had the support of local unions and state figures such as state Sens. Tony Vargas and Justin Wayne. Eastman ran on a platform that included tuition-free college and universal healthcare.[4]
Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales said the district was “one of the most competitive races in the country,” and was a “must-win for Democrats to get back to the majority."[5]
Three outlets rated this race as a Toss-up and one rated it as Tilts Republican.[6] President Trump won the district by 2.2 points in 2016.[7]
Candidates and election results
Kara Eastman defeated Brad Ashford in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 on May 15, 2018.
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Kara Eastman  | 51.6 | 21,357 |
 | Brad Ashford | 48.4 | 19,998 | |
| Total votes: 41,355 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Candidates
Brad Ashford
Ashford earned his bachelor's degree from Colgate University in 1971 and his J.D. from the Creighton University School of Law in 1974. His professional experience includes working as an attorney and businessman.
Ashford began his professional career in 1974 as an attorney for the General Counsel's Office of the Federal Highway Administration. In 1975, Ashford began work as an attorney for Bradford and Cohen, where he would continue to work until 2003. From 1983 to 1984, he worked as a hearing examiner for the Nebraska Department of Education. From 1984 to 1986, he served as a judge for the Nebraska Court of Industrial Relations. In 1998, he became the vice president and business development investor of Discoverwhy.com. Ashford later became co-owner of the Nebraska Clothing Company, which began in 1993.[8]
Kara Eastman
At the time of her 2018 run for Congress, Eastman was the District 4 representative on the Metropolitan Community College Board of Governors in Douglas County in Nebraska. She won the seat in 2014. Eastman did not seek re-election in 2018.
Eastman is also the founder of the nonprofit Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance, a poisoning prevention organization.[9] She was backed in the primary by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
Democratic Party factional conflict
Disputes between candidates endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and candidates outside the official organs of the Democratic Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.
The DCCC, a campaign arm of the Democratic National Committee, endorsed candidates who party leaders believed had the best chance of defeating Republican incumbents.[10]
Some criticized the DCCC's choices. Ryan Grim and Lee Fang wrote in The Intercept, for example, "In district after district, the national party is throwing its weight behind candidates who are out of step with the national mood."[11]
In this primary, the DCCC endorsed Brad Ashford.[10]
The chart below shows a scorecard for how the DCCC performed in competitive Democratic primaries that featured at least one DCCC-endorsed candidate and one other Democratic candidate.
| U.S. House Democratic factions | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faction | Primary victories in 2018 | |||||||||||
| Endorsed by DCCC | 31 | |||||||||||
| Not endorsed by DCCC | 2 | |||||||||||
Timeline
Campaign finance
The table below details the campaign finance reports from the candidates in this race through March 31, 2018.[12]
Debates
April 19
Ashford and Eastman squared off in a televised debate on April 19. You can view the debate below.
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Campaign tactics and strategies
Campaign advertisements
Brad Ashford
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Kara Eastman
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Endorsements
To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.
| Democratic candidate endorsements | ||
|---|---|---|
| Endorsement | Ashford | Eastman[13] |
| State figures | ||
| Crystal Rhoades, Nebraska state public service commissioner | ✔ | |
| Anne Boyle, former Nebraska state public service commissioner | ✔ | |
| Tony Vargas, Nebraska state senator | ✔ | |
| Justin Wayne, Nebraska state senator | ✔ | |
| Local figures | ||
| Ben Gray, Omaha city councilman | ✔ | |
| Roger Garcia, Metropolitan Community College board member | ✔ | |
| Dave Pantos, Metropolitan Community College board member | ✔ | |
| Michael Young, Metropolitan Community College board member | ✔ | |
| Craig Moody, Omaha Public Power District board member | ✔ | |
| Amanda Ryan, Omaha Public Schools board member | ✔ | |
| Freddie Gray, former Omaha Public Schools board president | ✔ | |
| Organizations | ||
| Giffords[14] | ✔ | |
| Nebraska State Education Association[15] | ✔ | |
| #VOTEPROCHOICE[16] | ✔ | |
| Nebraska AFL-CIO[17] | ✔ | |
| Blue Dog Coalition[18] | ✔ | |
| Boilermakers Local 83[19] | ✔ | |
| Climate Hawks Vote[20] | ✔ | |
| Insulators Local 39[21] | ✔ | |
| Laborers Local 1140[22] | ✔ | |
| National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[23] | ✔ | |
| Nebraska State Education Association[19] | ✔ | |
| Nebraska State Legislative Board of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen[24] | ✔ | |
| NewDemPAC[25] | ✔ | |
| Operative Plasterers and Cement Masons Local 538[26] | ✔ | |
| Omaha Federation of Labor[27] | ✔ | |
| Omaha and Southwest Iowa Building Trades Council[28] | ✔ | |
| Progressive Change Campaign Committee[29] | ✔ | |
| Emily's List[30] | ✔ | |
| Planned Parenthood[31] | ✔ | |
| NARAL Pro-Choice America[32] | ✔ | |
| National Organization for Women Political Action Committee[33] | ✔ | |
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
| Race ratings: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District the 204th most Republican nationally.[34]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[35]
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Nebraska heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2014 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Nebraska.
- Republicans held all three U.S. House seats in Nebraska.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held six of 10 state executive positions and the remaining four positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Nebraska was Republican Pete Ricketts.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled the Nebraska unicameral with a 30-16 majority.
Trifecta status
- Nebraska was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the state government. Pete Ricketts (R) served as governor and Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Nebraska elections, 2018
Nebraska held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- Three U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Four lower state executive positions
- 24 out of 49 state Senate seats
- Municipal elections in Douglas and Lancaster Counties
Demographics
| Demographic data for Nebraska | ||
|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 1,893,765 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 76,824 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 88.1% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 4.7% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 10% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 90.7% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 29.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $52,997 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 14.6% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Nebraska. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Nebraska had a population of approximately 1,920,000 people, with its three largest cities being Omaha (pop. est. 450,000), Lincoln (pop. est. 280,000), and Bellevue (pop. est. 54,000).[36][37]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Nebraska from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Nebraska Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Nebraska every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
58.7% |  Hillary Clinton |
33.7% | 25.0% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
59.8% | Barack Obama |
38.0% | 21.8% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
56.5% | Barack Obama |
41.6% | 14.9% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
65.9% | John Kerry |
32.7% | 33.2% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
62.2% | Al Gore |
33.3% | 28.9% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Nebraska from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Ben Sasse |
64.3% | Dave Domina |
31.5% | 32.8% |
| 2012 | Deb Fischer |
57.8% | Bob Kerrey |
42.2% | 15.6% |
| 2008 | Mike Johanns |
57.5% | Scott Kleeb |
40.1% | 17.4% |
| 2006 | Ben Nelson |
63.9% | Pete Ricketts |
36.1% | 27.8% |
| 2002 | Chuck Hagel |
82.3% | Charlie Matulka |
14.6% | 67.7% |
| 2000 | Ben Nelson |
51.1% | Don Stenberg |
48.9% | 2.2% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Nebraska.
| Election results (Governor), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Pete Ricketts |
57.2% | Chuck Hassebrook |
39.2% | 18.0% |
| 2010 | Dave Heineman |
73.9% | Mike Meister |
26.1% | 47.8% |
| 2006 | Dave Heineman |
73.4% | David Hahn |
24.5% | 48.9% |
| 2002 | Mike Johanns |
68.7% | Stormy Dean |
27.5% | 41.2% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Nebraska in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2014 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2010 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2008 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2006 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2004 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2002 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2002 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls the state legislature and the governor's office.
Nebraska Party Control: 1992-2024
Seven years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-seven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska, 2018
- United States House elections in Nebraska (May 15, 2018 Democratic primaries)
- Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ The Hill, "House Democrats add seven candidates to 'Red-to-Blue' program," January 10, 2018
- ↑ GovTrack, "2015 report cards: House Democrats," January 9, 2016
- ↑ GovTrack, "2016 report cards: House Democrats," August 24, 2017
- ↑ Kara Eastman, "Issues," accessed February 2, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Both political parties see Nebraska's 2nd District as key in battle to control House," January 1, 2018
- ↑ Ratings are based on projections found in Governing, Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and The Cook Political Report. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008," November 19, 2012
- ↑ Project Vote Smart, "Brad Ashford's Biography," accessed January 7, 2015
- ↑ Kara Eastman 2018 campaign website, "Meet Kara," accessed February 21, 2018
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 DCCC, "Red to Blue Candidates," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ The Intercept, "THE DEAD ENDERS: Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First," January 23, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Browse Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed May 9, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Democrat Kara Eastman announces endorsements in bid to represent Nebraska's 2nd District," January 12, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Gabrielle Giffords endorses Brad Ashford as a 'gun safety champion'; Eastman argues she would fight harder," May 8, 2018
- ↑ Brad Ashford 2018 campaign website, "NSEA RECOMMENDS RAYBOULD, KRIST, ASHFORD," May 4, 2018
- ↑ Kara Eastman 2018 campaign website, "News," April 3, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Nebraska AFL-CIO endorses Brad Ashford," March 31, 2018
- ↑ Brad Ashford for Congress, "The Hill: Moderate Blue Dogs see new influence over Dem recruitment," September 22, 2017
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 Omaha World-Herald, "Brad Ashford picks up support of state teachers union in 2nd Congressional District race," February 27, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Kara Eastman picks up first national endorsement," December 6, 2017
- ↑ Eastman for Congress, "Kara Eastman receives third union endorsement," November 29, 2017
- ↑ Brad Ashford for Congress, "Laborers Local 1140 gives nod to Ashford," December 19, 2017
- ↑ Brad Ashford for Congress, "National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare endorses Ashford," December 22, 2017
- ↑ Eastman for Congress, "Kara Eastman becomes first candidate endorsed by labor in the Nebraska Second Congressional District race," October 12, 2017
- ↑ Roll Call, "New Democrats' PAC endorses first 16 candidates for 2018," March 9, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Kara Eastman picks up labor endorsement," February 3, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Brad Ashford receives Omaha Federation of Labor endorsement," March 17, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Brad Ashford picks up labor endorsement," January 25, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "NE-02, PA-11, HI-01 & MI-13: PCCC helps these progressive Democrats bring in the big blue wave," March 22, 2018
- ↑ Times Union, "National group Emily's List backs Kara Eastman, says 'she can win the tough fights,'" accessed June 20, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Three national women's groups back Kara Eastman," accessed June 20, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Three national women's groups back Kara Eastman," accessed June 20, 2018
- ↑ Omaha World-Herald, "Three national women's groups back Kara Eastman," accessed June 20, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Nebraska," accessed January 9, 2018
- ↑ Nebraska Demographics, "Nebraska Cities by Population," accessed January 9, 2018
