North Carolina's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
May 8, 2012 |
Mike McIntyre  |
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The 7th Congressional District of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Incumbent Mike McIntyre (D) won re-election in a tight race that was too close to call for more than a week after polls closed.[1][2] On November 20, 2012, Rouzer requested a recount in the race, which was the "closest Congressional race in the country.[3]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: North Carolina has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 13. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 12.[4]
- See also: North Carolina elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Mike McIntyre (D), who was first elected to the House in 1996.
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. North Carolina's 7th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included Robeson, Cumberland, Sampson, Bladen, Columbus, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, and Duplin counties.[5]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
May 8, 2012, primary results
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- Note: Timothy Alan Wilkes appeared on initial lists but ultimately withdrew prior to the primary.[7]
Election results
General Election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Mike McIntyre Incumbent |
50.1% | 168,695 | |
| Republican | David Rouzer | 49.9% | 168,041 | |
| Total Votes | 336,736 | |||
| Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
David Rouzer |
48.5% | 34,647 |
| Ilario Gregory Pantano | 44.5% | 31,752 |
| Randy Crow | 7% | 5,012 |
| Total Votes | 71,411 | |
Race background
Competitiveness
North Carolina's 7th is considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre was challenged by David Rouzer (R), a "young gun," in a Republican leaning district. McIntyre was hoping to survive by distancing himself from his fellow Democrats..[8]
Republican challenger David Rouzer has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlights challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[9]
The Washington Post listed the House of Representatives elections in North Carolina in 2012 as one of the states that could have determined whether Democrats retook the House or Republicans held their majority in 2013.[10] North Carolina was rated 8th on the list.[10]
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for North Carolina's 7th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[11]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[12] | |
|---|---|
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Democratic Toss Ups: Republican Toss Ups: | |
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in North Carolina
Following the 2010 Census results, North Carolina did not gain or lose any congressional seats, maintaining its 13 representatives. Under the new map, the 7th District leaned Republican. In addition, current 7th District Rep. Mike McIntyre's home was redrawn into the 8th District. Regardless, McIntyre intended to seek re-election in the new 7th.[6]
Registration statistics
As of May 11, 2012, District 7 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the North Carolina Board of Elections:
| North Carolina Congressional District 7[13] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 7 | 477,394 | 199,374 | 159,557 | 118,463 | Democratic | 24.95% | -46.95% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. North Carolina's 7th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[14]
- 2012: 38D / 62R
- 2010: 44D / 56R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. North Carolina's 7th Congressional District has a PVI of R+11, which is the 94th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 58-42 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-39 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Mike McIntyre
| Mike McIntyre (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[16] | April 15, 2012 | $687,284.15 | $160,938.47 | $(69,237.30) | $778,985.32 | ||||
| July Quarterly[17] | July 15, 2012 | $763,976.49 | $386,910.24 | $(74,535.72) | $1,076,351.01 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $547,848.71 | $(143,773.02) | ||||||||
David Rouzer
| David Rouzer (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[18] | April 15, 2012 | $279,195.41 | $244,130.79 | $(433,090.47) | $90,235.73 | ||||
| July Quarterly[19] | July 15, 2012 | $88,397.41 | $272,779.04 | $(189,568.02) | $171,608.43 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $516,909.83 | $(622,658.49) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ New York Times, "House Results," accessed November 7, 2012
- ↑ Raleigh News & Observer, "McIntyre declares victory as final votes counted," November 16, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call, "North Carolina: Rouzer Calls for Recount in Race Against McIntyre," November 20, 2012
- ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Registering to Vote in North Carolina," accessed July 26, 2012
- ↑ North Carolina Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 24, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Roll Call, "Race Ratings: GOP looks for major gains in North Carolina," accessed December 26, 2011
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org accessed February 5, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 Washington Post, "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012," accessed April 25, 2012
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "US Congressional Districts by County and Precinct," May 11, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in North Carolina," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Mike McIntyre April Quarterly," accessed August 19, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Mike McIntyre July Quarterly," accessed August 19, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "David Rouzer April Quarterly," accessed August 19, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "David Rouzer July Quarterly," accessed August 19, 2012
