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United States Senate election in Tennessee (August 2, 2018 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Tennessee
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Bob Corker (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Tennessee
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Tennessee elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated commercial driver Aaron Pettigrew (R) in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Tennessee. Incumbent Sen. Bob Corker (R) announced in 2017 he would not seek re-election.[3]

Blackburn campaigned for cutting taxes in the state, promoting anti-abortion policies, and supporting President Trump's immigration ban. Trump endorsed her in April 2018 and hosted a fundraiser for her in May 2018.[4]



For more on related elections, please see:

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Marsha Blackburn defeated Aaron Pettigrew in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn
 
84.5
 
613,513
Image of Aaron Pettigrew
Aaron Pettigrew
 
15.5
 
112,705

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 726,218
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

Top candidates

Marsha Blackburn

Marsha Blackburn.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Blackburn was first elected as a U.S. representative in 2003. Prior to that, she served as a state senator from 1998 to 2002. Heading into the 2018 election, she owned Marketing Strategies, a promotion event management firm. Blackburn graduated from Mississippi State University with a bachelor's in home economics.[5]

Blackburn's campaign website stated, "Time after time, when Tennessee needs a fighter against big government, we send in Marsha Blackburn. Today she is campaigning to bring that fight to the United States Senate, where she will work tirelessly to help President Trump pass his agenda."[6]

Blackburn listed repealing Obamacare, protecting the unborn, and protecting Second Amendment rights as among her campaign priorities. She received above 50 percent support in three polls and reported over $3 million in funds raised at the close of 2017.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, Republican primary election: Blackburn vs. Corker
Poll Marsha Blackburn Bob CorkerMargin of ErrorSample Size
Committee to Defend the President
February 13-15, 2018		 55%26%+/-4.4900
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, Republican primary election: Blackburn vs. Bredesen
Poll Marsha Blackburn Phil BredesenDon't know/Not sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Triton Polling Research Inc.
January 21-24, 2018		 50.7%39.7%9.6%+/-3.11,003
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, Republican primary election: Blackburn vs. Fincher
Poll Marsha Blackburn Stephen FincherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Club for Growth
January 14-15, 2018		 66%13%21%+/-4.4502
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Marsha Blackburn Republican Party $14,634,620 $16,572,478 $614,100 As of December 31, 2018
Aaron Pettigrew Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Noteworthy events

Corker shows support for Blackburn

Sen. Bob Corker (R) expressed support for Marsha Blackburn's run to replace him in April 2018. He wrote on Twitter, "Now that the Republican primary has essentially concluded, I am sending a contribution to Representative Marsha Blackburn’s campaign and wish her well in her race for the U.S. Senate."[7]

Timeline

Listed below are the noteworthy events in this primary election.

  • August 2, 2018: Primary Election Day
  • July 26, 2018: Absentee ballot application deadline
  • July 3, 2018: Voter registration deadline
  • April 5, 2018: Candidate filing deadline

Election history

2014

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLamar Alexander Incumbent 61.9% 850,087
     Democratic Gordon Ball 31.9% 437,848
     Independent Ed Gauthier 0.2% 2,314
     Independent Bartholomew Phillips 0.2% 2,386
     Independent C. Salekin 0.1% 787
     Independent Danny Page 0.6% 7,713
     Independent Eric Schechter 0.1% 1,673
     Constitution Joe Wilmoth 2.6% 36,088
     Independent Joshua James 0.4% 5,678
     Independent Rick Tyler 0.4% 5,759
     Tea Party Tom Emerson, Jr. 0.8% 11,157
     Green Martin Pleasant 0.9% 12,570
     Write-in Erin Kent Magee 0% 5
Total Votes 1,374,065
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBob Corker Incumbent 64.9% 1,506,443
     Democratic Mark E. Clayton 30.4% 705,882
     Constitution Kermit Steck 0.8% 18,620
     Green Martin Pleasant 1.7% 38,472
     Libertarian Shaun E. Crowell 0.9% 20,936
     Independent David Gatchell 0.3% 6,523
     Independent Michael Joseph Long 0.3% 8,085
     Independent Troy Stephen Scoggin 0.3% 8,080
Total Votes 2,320,189
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

See also: State government trifectas

2018 elections

See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[11]

Historical elections

Presidential elections

Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  2. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  3. ↑ CNBC, "Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee will not seek re-election," September 26, 2017
  4. ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Trump Visit Spotlights Competitive Tennessee Senate Race," May 30, 2018
  5. ↑ Mississippi State University, "Blackburn," accessed December 19, 2013
  6. ↑ Marsha Blackburn 2018 campaign website, "About Marsha Blackburn," accessed April 4, 2018
  7. ↑ Twitter, "Bob Corker on Twitter," April 9, 2018
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Tennessee Demographics, "Tennessee Cities by Population" accessed September 7, 2018
  11. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 7, 2018


Tennessee's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)


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